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Only 4 kachi-koshi for the 21 maegashira from M1e to M11e does tie the record in the six-basho era at least, with only 4 prior instances, most recently at Aki 2000.

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Posted (edited)

Did you know that there never has been anyone in Makuuchi who went "nuke-nuke" for all 15 days? It happened once in Juryo back in Kyushu 2004 to a 21 year old Tamaasuka. I'm just the translator who didn't bother to check if this is correct, but wow.. This came up now because baseball's Central League leading Hanshin Tigers are "nuke- nuke' for their last 15 games and one game away from tying the record. A loss to Softbank today and the record will be tied.

Edit: Hanshin  lost 10-2 to Softbank, so the record is tied.

Edited by Kintamayama
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8 minutes ago, Seiyashi said:

Nuke nuke?

Win-loss-win-loss.

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Posted (edited)

Tamaasuka + 3 others, all in juryo.

(Never happened the other way around, though.)


Edit: I'll call Kawachiyama the record holder with 21 total (2+15+4). Although that makes me wonder if somebody else might have that beaten across two tournaments...

Edited by Asashosakari
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It appears that from 2000 to 5/2021, Juryo 1 rikishi coming up to fight Maegashira have won a little more than 50% of the time (250W, 244 L).

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On 05/06/2021 at 09:31, Kintamayama said:

Win-loss-win-loss.

Do you mean alternating winning and losing all the way through the basho? It's really difficult for me to believe that that hasn't happened before.

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On 05/06/2021 at 09:23, Seiyashi said:

Nuke nuke?

LOL, Google translates as "missing" 

Somehow I know that can't be correct...

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54 minutes ago, Kaminariyuki said:

Do you mean alternating winning and losing all the way through the basho? It's really difficult for me to believe that that hasn't happened before.

Fact..

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2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Fact..

Amazing. One could do a fairly simple statistical analysis of the odds of that ocuring but I'm in more of a question posing, rather than a question answering, sort of mood.

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2 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Fact..

OK, it was fairly simple if I didn't screw it up. Back of envelope calculation and 60 s later, I suggest that his should happen in makuuchi about once every 65 years at the current rate of 6 bashos a year.

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29 minutes ago, Kaminariyuki said:

OK, it was fairly simple if I didn't screw it up. Back of envelope calculation and 60 s later, I suggest that his should happen in makuuchi about once every 65 years at the current rate of 6 bashos a year.

We're due! B-)

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43 minutes ago, Kaminariyuki said:

OK, it was fairly simple if I didn't screw it up. Back of envelope calculation and 60 s later, I suggest that his should happen in makuuchi about once every 65 years at the current rate of 6 bashos a year.

Would be very cool if it happens this basho.. 

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1 hour ago, Kaminariyuki said:

OK, it was fairly simple if I didn't screw it up. Back of envelope calculation and 60 s later, I suggest that his should happen in makuuchi about once every 65 years at the current rate of 6 bashos a year.

I agree with your calculation, but keep in mind that the probability of not having such an occurrence in the time period under which it is expected is ~1/e ~= 37%.

As for actual data, considering there haven't been always 42 rikishi in the division and often a few don't compete, there are roughly 300,000 Makuuchi bouts since the 15-day era was reinstated after WW2.  If those were all full schedules, we'd expect there to have been 1.22 occurrences by now.  I also calculate a 29.5% chance that we randomly would not see such an event happen.

Keep in mind though that there are plenty of ranks in Makuuchi where the probability of this happening is extremely low, either because they're much more likely, or much less likely, to win adjacent matches than in pure chance.  For instance, I would posit that the likelihood of anyone in the top 16 ranks competing were to do this is very small compared to random chance; even if someone at these ranks goes 8-7 or 7-8, it's highly likely there were clumps in their schedule of easy and hard matches.  If I were to say that it's impossible every basho for 12 rikishi as a correction, then we'd get one on average every 90 years instead.  The fact that it's happened in Juryo 4 times but not Makuuchi suggests that this is a significant factor, and that guys in Juryo actually engaged in a lot of win trading to make it more likely to happen there than we'd expect.

 

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From 2000 to present, J2 rikishi have done even better than J1 when called up to Maegashira, winning 52% (229W, 204L).

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Just to exhaust the whole up-from-Juryo data for those awaiting with bated breath(Detective...):

Rank    W      L       %

J1      250   244   50.6

J2      229   204   52.9

J3      166   155   51.7

J4        69      66   51.1

J5        11      19   36.7

J6        12        7   63.2

J7          1        3   25.0

J8          3        2   60.0

total  741   700   51.4

... essentially, equality (2000 to present).

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17 hours ago, Kaminariyuki said:

It's a good thing the basho is getting close. I see I'm not the only one who needs a fix.

Never mind the basho; I note GTB is closing tonight and I'm dying knowing there's still a week to banzuke day. Send help.

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10 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

essentially, equality (2000 to present)

Suggesting that the practice by the banzuke committee to favor lower-makuuchi rikishi over those in upper juryo with similar rank-record combinations "by the numbers" may not be as justifiable by strength of schedule as one might think.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Suggesting that the practice by the banzuke committee to favor lower-makuuchi rikishi over those in upper juryo with similar rank-record combinations "by the numbers" may not be as justifiable by strength of schedule as one might think.

I don't see how that follows. It's not exactly surprising that the top juryo guys have a slight edge in those specific matches, considering they're mostly matches made without particular regard for their in-basho performance, except for the last few days where juryo rikishi who are doing well mainly meet maegashira who aren't.

The quality differences between bottom maegashira and top juryo are of course negligible for the ones who tend to be paired up for these matches, mostly the first 3 ranks on each side, but their respective full schedules extend much further into each division.

Edited by Asashosakari
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7 minutes ago, Reonito said:

Suggesting that the practice by the banzuke committee to favor lower-makuuchi rikishi over those in upper juryo with similar rank-record combinations "by the numbers" may not be as justifiable by strength of schedule as one might think.

I'm a tiny bit surprised by the results, but there are soooo many variables.  What comes to my mind is that

1) Many of the Juryo guys have been to Maegashira before, and they know the M rikishi they're going to fight

2) Is there really that much difference between upper J and lower M?  While lower J might be filled with over-the-hillers headed to retirement, J1-5 should be tough.

3) Since this is often a replacement bout, there is positive motivation.

4) Kensho babyyyyyyyyyyyy!

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17 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

The quality differences between bottom maegashira and top juryo are of course negligible for the ones who tend to be paired up for these matches, mostly the first 3 ranks on each side, but their respective full schedules extend much further into each division.

That's fair, though the head-to-head results suggest they might fair similarly with similar schedules.

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Reonito said:

That's fair, though the head-to-head results suggest they might fair similarly with similar schedules.

Sure, but my point is that that means very little in regards to what you originally suggested. That rikishi A and B might do similarly well when they compete against schedule X and also when they compete against schedule Y doesn't tell us much of anything about how A fighting X and B fighting Y should be compared. That's down to the characteristics of X and Y, not A and B.

Edited by Asashosakari

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30 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

That rikishi A and B might do similarly well when they compete against schedule X and also when they compete against schedule Y doesn't tell us much of anything about how A fighting X and B fighting Y should be compared. That's down to the characteristics of X and Y, not A and B.

Completely agree, though I'd argue that unless there's a good way to quantify X and Y, it's basically impossible to compare A and B. What useful information could you get from their records if one fought 15 bouts against prime Hakuho and the other against Shonnanzakura? :-)

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Just noticed that Hokutofuji has alternated kachikoshi and makekoshi for the past 10 basho (since September 2019). He's scheduled for a kachikoshi this basho.

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