Trivia bits

[Yamanashi 3,724]

3 hours ago, ryafuji said:

"Banzuke luck" is a harsh way to describe the reward for becoming the first rikishi ever to win all three sansho in the same tournament, plus scoring 11 wins and getting a kinboshi in his debut.  Sure it was a big promotion, but you can't say he hadn't shown potential. (It was a serious back injury and diabetes that were largely responsible for him failing to reach sanyaku again.)

Posting like an Ozeki!  This happens to me all the time: I see someone's record and assume he was a sad sack loser who didn't have what it takes to make (Juryo, Sanyaku, whatever).  I post my opinion of same and someone replies something like "Well, you know his wife left him and he had that kidney removed; maybe that affected his time in Makuuchi."  Then I feel like a complete  ... [Note: clearly I have been over-promoted on this  Forum!]

[Reonito 1,335]

Man, yeah, that was like a round of kawaigari.

[Gurowake 3,915]

6 hours ago, sahaven111 said:

Trivia: this is the 1000th post in the thread

I'm very proud of this thread.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

3 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Topics:

Tokushouryuu broke the record for least number of bashos to fall to Juryo after a yusho - 5. The record was 7 held by Wakanami. He's the 14th rikishi to fall to Juryo with yusho experience.

Complete list:

Rikishi        Highest Rank    Yusho      Juryo
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tokushoryu     Maegashira 2    2020.01    2021.03 (5 basho to drop)
Wakanami       Komusubi        1968.03    1969.07 (7)
Takatoriki     Sekiwake        2000.03    2001.07 (7)
Kotonishiki    Sekiwake        1998.11*   2000.05 (8)
Baruto         Ozeki           2012.01    2013.09 (9), retired without competing
Terunofuji     Ozeki           2015.05*   2018.03 (16)
Kotofuji       Sekiwake        1991.07    1994.11 (19)
Tagaryu        Sekiwake        1984.09    1988.07 (22)
Bishuyama      Sekiwake        1945.06    1955.01 (26)
Kotoshogiku    Ozeki           2016.01    2020.11 (27)
Tokitsuyama    Sekiwake        1953.05    1961.03 (37), retired without competing
Mitoizumi      Sekiwake        1992.07    1999.05 (40)
Wakamisugi     Sekiwake        1960.05    1967.05 (41), retired without competing
Takamiyama     Sekiwake        1972.07    1984.03 (69)

* It was Kotonishiki's second yusho of two and Terunofuji's first of two, respectively; all others were one-time winners.

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

Most consecutive Basho as Maegashira

#       Rikishi       From    To      
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
58  Kyokushuzan    1997.05     2006.11   fell from his highest rank K1w just before and never dropped to Juryo
53  Higonoumi     1993.03     2001.11   highest rank M1w, no sansho, two kinboshi against Akebono and Takanohana
45  Takamisakari  2004.01     2011.07   Komusubi twice before
43  Ozutsu        1985.01     1992.01   eleven times Sanyaku before
42  Minatofuji    1994.05     2001.03   highest rank M2e, one Kanto-sho, three kinboshi against Takanohana and Musashimaru
41  Kitakachidoki 1991.09     1998.05   highest rank M3w, no sansho, no kinboshi, can't get any more bleak than him
41  Tokitsuumi    1998.09     2005.05   highest rank M3e, four Gino-sho, no kinboshi
40  Daiyu         1965.11     1972.05   highest rank M1e, no sansho, no kinboshi, won his second Juryo Yusho right after the drop
40  Kotonowaka    1999.05     2005.11   fell from his highest rank S1w just before and dropped to Juryo only twice earlier
40  Yoshikaze     2007.07     2014.03   ended the streak with his his Sanyaku debut

Currently there's Kagayaki at 28 (no sansho, no kinboshi), Takarafuji at 25 (dropped from Sekiwake), and Kaisei with 24 before his Sanyaku debut.

Edited March 4, 2021 by Jakusotsu

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

Most consecutive Basho in Juryo

#       Rikishi       From    To      
---------------------------------
39  Sawakaze       1960.03    1966.07
37  Hakuyuzan     1951.09    1959.11
34  Tomonohana    1996.03    2001.09   (the only one I'm familiar with)
31  Sagahikari    1956.01    1961.07
30  Kochi         1958.11    1963.09
30  Tochiisami    1975.01    1979.11
30  Hakuryu       1979.05    1984.03
30  Toyonoumi     1994.05    1999.03
29  Azumanishiki  1962.11    1967.07
28  Ijuin         1955.03    1960.07

Kyokushuho is currently at 23, tied with Azumaryu's former record. Mitoryu has never been out of Juryo after his promotion 19 Basho ago.

[hakutorizakura 590]

On 01/02/2021 at 00:57, ryafuji said:

"Banzuke luck" is a harsh way to describe the reward for becoming the first rikishi ever to win all three sansho in the same tournament, plus scoring 11 wins and getting a kinboshi in his debut.  Sure it was a big promotion, but you can't say he hadn't shown potential. (It was a serious back injury and diabetes that were largely responsible for him failing to reach sanyaku again.)

Exceptional basho performance. Is there a list somewhere of those who managed the 3-sansho feat? I was only aware of Takahanada before knowing this one.

[Kamitsuumi 384]

Daiju, Ōnishiki, Takahanada, Dejima, Kotomitsuki

[ryafuji 807]

10 hours ago, hakutorizakura said:

Exceptional basho performance. Is there a list somewhere of those who managed the 3-sansho feat? I was only aware of Takahanada before knowing this one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanshō_(sumo)#Sanshō_sweeps

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Randomly stumbled upon this in the Japanese Wikipedia just now (in their article about the makushita division): Back in January 36-year-old Katsunofuji set a new all-time record with his 19th (!) promotion from sandanme to makushita.

His longest consecutive stints in makushita lasted 11 and 9 basho respectively; all others ended in 4 or fewer.

Edited March 9, 2021 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 18,786]

In Hatsu 1980, juryo rikishi Hidanohana faced a record 12 opponents who finished the basho 8-7, and for good measure he scored an 8-7 record himself as well.

[Gurowake 3,915]

Top number of times (since 1956) a given pair of rikishi have both been ranked at Sekiwake for the same tournament.  This counts times when there were more than 2 Sekiwake.

8    Kaio&Musoyama

7    Hasegawa&Maenoyama
7    Kaio&Kotonishiki
7    Kotomitsuki&Miyabiyama

6    Kaiketsu&Takamiyama
6    Kisenosato&Kotoshogiku
6    Kotonishiki&Musoyama

5    Annenyama&Kitabayama
5    Goeido&Tochiozan
5    Kotogaume&Sakahoko
5    Kotonishiki&Takatoriki
5    Musoyama&Takatoriki
5    Musoyama&Tochiazuma

4    Baruto&Goeido
4    Goeido&Myogiryu
4    Haguroyama&Tochinoumi
4    Hasegawa&Mienoumi
4    Hasegawa&Takanohana
4    Hoshi&Onokuni
4    Kaio&Takatoriki
4    Kaio&Tochiazuma
4    Kakuryu&Kisenosato
4    Kirinji&Kiyokuni
4    Kotomitsuki&Wakanosato
4    Kotonishiki&Musashimaru
4    Miyabiyama&Tochiazuma
4    Miyabiyama&Wakanosato
4    Musashimaru&Takanonami
4    Sadanoyama&Tochinoumi

Generating this required me to create a lot of duplicates; hopefully I've trimmed all of them.

Edited March 22, 2021 by Gurowake

[Asashosakari 18,786]

I believe Kirinji/Daikirin & Maenoyama is also part of the 5's (Link).

[Gurowake 3,915]

8 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I believe Kirinji/Daikirin & Maenoyama is also part of the 5's (Link).

It is true that I did this solely by (romanized) shikona, and thus missed any changes.

Edited March 23, 2021 by Gurowake

[Asashosakari 18,786]

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

2 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

2 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

Asahi dug up this statistic: out of 25 times a rikishi has a 2-bout lead on day 10, they went on to win the yusho on 24 occasions. The sole exception was Hakuho's Hatsu 2019 withdrawal on day 14.

Is that 25 a random cutoff for statistical analysis purposes or have there only been 25 instances of this in all of sumo history? That seems remarkably low, tbh.

The Tweet itself says Heisei, so the last 30 years, basically. I wouldn't be surprised if the person in question was named Hakuho for half of those cases either.

Surprisingly, pre-Heisei only adds another 10 cases to the list for the whole 15-bout era since 1949. All of those leaders proceeded to win the yusho as well.

Tally by rikishi:

6 Hakuho      (2008.07, 2010.05, 2011.01, 2013.03, 2017.11, 2019.01 [did not win])
5 Chiyonofuji (1982.07, 1985.05, 1989.09, 1990.01, 1990.11)
5 Asashoryu   (2002.11, 2003.09, 2005.01, 2005.03, 2005.11)
3 Kitanoumi   (1974.01, 1975.01 [3-win lead], 1980.03)
3 Akebono     (1992.05 [at 9-1], 1993.09, 2000.07)
2 Takanohana  (1994.11, 1996.09)

1 Tochinoumi  (1963.11)
1 Taiho       (1966.11)
1 Kitanofuji  (1972.09)
1 Wajima      (1973.11)
1 Wakashimazu (1984.07)
1 Wakanohana  (1998.03)
1 Takatoriki  (2000.03)
1 Kotomitsuki (2001.09 [at 9-1])
1 Musashimaru (2002.03)
1 Chiyotaikai (2003.03 [at 9-1])
1 Mitakeumi   (2018.07)
1 Takayasu    (2021.03 [at 9-1, outcome?])

Also somewhat surprisingly none of the leader-winners even required a playoff in the end.

Edited March 23, 2021 by Asashosakari

[Asojima 2,870]

1 Wajima      (1973.11)  Kyujo on day 14, but still yusho'd

[Yamanashi 3,724]

Oh, crap, poor Takayasu might merely win the yusho, or put in a record-breaking performance .

[Benevolance 2,478]

Trivia fact: this will, in fact, be Takayasu's first yusho, despite me absolutely positively being certain that we won once before and wasting half the day pouring over records and matches to figure out why the rest of the world was wrong, and finally coming to the realization that I've jumped timelines and I'm currently in a different reality. 

[Eikokurai 3,433]

6 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Surprisingly, pre-Heisei only adds another 10 cases to the list for the whole 15-bout era since 1949. All of those leaders proceeded to win the yusho as well.

Tally by rikishi:

6 Hakuho      (2008.07, 2010.05, 2011.01, 2013.03, 2017.11, 2019.01 [did not win])
5 Chiyonofuji (1982.07, 1985.05, 1989.09, 1990.01, 1990.11)
5 Asashoryu   (2002.11, 2003.09, 2005.01, 2005.03, 2005.11)
3 Kitanoumi   (1974.01, 1975.01 [3-win lead], 1980.03)
3 Akebono     (1992.05 [at 9-1], 1993.09, 2000.07)
2 Takanohana  (1994.11, 1996.09)

1 Tochinoumi  (1963.11)
1 Taiho       (1966.11)
1 Kitanofuji  (1972.09)
1 Wajima      (1973.11)
1 Wakashimazu (1984.07)
1 Wakanohana  (1998.03)
1 Takatoriki  (2000.03)
1 Kotomitsuki (2001.09 [at 9-1])
1 Musashimaru (2002.03)
1 Chiyotaikai (2003.03 [at 9-1])
1 Mitakeumi   (2018.07)
1 Takayasu    (2021.03 [at 9-1, outcome?])

Also somewhat surprisingly none of the leader-winners even required a playoff in the end.

Thinking about it now, I suppose it’s not all that shocking. We’ve had approx. 180 basho in the past 30 years, so 25 of them meeting the criteria feels about right. I think it more statistically likely that after 10 days yusho-race leaders either be tied or separated by just one win, especially as the gap is rarely by more than two even after day 15 is done. Records become more separated the more bouts they fight after all. On day two half of them share the lead; by senshuraku only one.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

9 hours ago, Eikokurai said:

Thinking about it now, I suppose it’s not all that shocking. We’ve had approx. 180 basho in the past 30 years, so 25 of them meeting the criteria feels about right. I think it more statistically likely that after 10 days yusho-race leaders either be tied or separated by just one win, especially as the gap is rarely by more than two even after day 15 is done. Records become more separated the more bouts they fight after all. On day two half of them share the lead; by senshuraku only one.

At the risk of losing people mathematically, we are essentially asking about the binomial distribution of 42 people over 15 days, or a Pascal's Triangle. This is of course assuming rikishi win or lose bouts randomly. When talking about all rikishi it's reasonable, but if you look at individual rikishi there's a noticeable bias for the joi-jin to be on the bum end and the sanyaku to be on the top end. And, as we will see, dai-yokozuna horribly skew this because their win rate is almost certainly 100% or pretty darn close to it.

So after 1 day, half the division will win or lose (1-1). After 2 days, 50% of the division will have 1 win, 25% with 2 wins and 25% with none (1-2-1). Row 10 goes like this: 1, 10, 45, 120, 210, 252, 210, 120, 45, 10, 1. This means, probability-wise, that the chance to have a certain number of wins by day 10 is approximately as follows (and extending to the number of rikishi expected to have that number of wins):

• 0 wins: 0.1% or 0.042 rikishi, or 2 rikishi every 50 tournaments
• 1 win: 1% or 0.42 rikishi, or 2 rikishi every 5 tournaments
• 2 wins: 4.4% or 2 rikishi
• 3 wins: 11.7% or 5 rikishi
• 4 wins: 20.5% or 8 rikishi
• 5 wins: 24.6% or 10 rikishi
• 6 wins: 20.5% or 8 rikishi
• 7 wins: 11.7% or 5 rikishi
• 8 wins: 4.4% or 2 rikishi
• 9 wins: 1% or 0.42 rikishi, or 2 rikishi every 5 tournaments
• 10 wins: 0.1% or 0.042 rikishi, or 2 rikishi every 50 tournaments

Obviously we have a lot of 10 win rikishi courtesy of the GOAT. Hakuho's 15 zensho in the Heisei period (30x6 basho or 180) is about double the expected strike rate for a 10-win rikishi, and this is before accounting for all the times he went 10-0 by day 10 and dropped some to fellow rikishi. So Hakuho's results are at least twice as good as random if not more!

25 basho out of 180 is about 13% of basho. It would be mathematically more common for leaders to be 9-1 and their pursuers to be 7-3; of course the presence of dai-yokozuna significantly skews the odds of getting a 10-win rikishi from the random. It's no surprise that many of the 2-win leaders are in fact those same dai-yokozuna.

This actually gives me ideas of how to simulate a basho before it's begun by using rikishi's historical win rates, or to actually quantify how good a basho an individual rikishi is having based on their historical win rates. That said, accounting for injuries as a major confounder will be challenging. I suspect Tachiai and GSB did something similar when they put on the mock basho last year.

Edited March 24, 2021 by Seiyashi

[Eikokurai 3,433]

With Kakuryu gone and the possibility of Hakuho not being too far behind, with nobody yet stepping into their shoes, I started wondering if we’ve seen our last kinboshi for a while. It got me thinking, what’s the longest spell without any Maegashira beating a Yokozuna, both with Yokozuna on the banzuke and without?

For the record, Hakuho most recently gave up a kinboshi almost exactly a year ago: Day 10 of Haru 2020, March 17th, to M5w Onosho. Kakuryu’s most recent was of course his slip against Endo on day one of July last year so the current count without a kinboshi is 249 calendar days (70 basho days).

Edited March 25, 2021 by Eikokurai

[Oshirokita 173]

5 minutes ago, Eikokurai said:

With Kakuryu gone and the possibility of Hakuho not being too far behind, with nobody yet stepping into their shoes, I started wondering if we’ve seen our last kinboshi for a while. It got me thinking, what’s the longest spell without any Maegashira beating a Yokozuna, both with Yokozuna on the banzuke and without?

There has been at least 1 kinboshi every year from 1988 to 2020 except for 2011.

So, for Heisei to present, the longest gap I know of is between Day 2 Kyushu 2010 Kisenosato d. Hakuho.

Next was Day 7 Natsu 2012 Toyohibiki d. Hakuho.

[Oshirokita 173]

The most recent kinboshi was Day 1 of the 2020 July basho (Endo d. Kakuryu), so it will be a full year (at least) from then until the next kinboshi (assuming Hakuho skips the May basho this year).

[bessantj 4]

Akinoshima holds the record of most kinboshi with 16, that includes 4 against Chiyonofuji! Even back in the 80s/90s that must have been a tidy little bonus to his pay.

[Gurowake 3,915]

I have no idea how one would research for this easily, but I suspect Akiseyama may be the oldest rikishi to reach a career high rank, 35 years, 8 months, at least in any time period that's sufficiently modern.  I don't think there are any Ozeki or Yokozuna promotions of anyone that old in any modern time, and most guys who are that old in the top division have been up and down it many times.

Closest I can think of recently: Yoshikaze to Sekiwake at 33 and 10 months, Hatsu 2016.

EDIT: Takekaze even closer: Sekiwake at 35 years, 3 months, Aki 2014

Edited March 27, 2021 by Gurowake