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Trivia bits

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Most appearances in Ms1-Ms5 without ever earning promotion to juryo:

 # Rikishi      First    Last     HiRk
--------------------------------------
 7 Tsuwatari    1957.11  1959.01  Ms3
 7 Takabe       1970.01  1973.01  Ms1
 7 Taigiyama    1979.09  1984.03  Ms2
 7 Shishuyama   1984.11  1988.05  Ms1
 7 Fujinoyama   2000.01  2004.07  Ms1
 7 Kairyu       2012.05  2017.05  Ms2   active

 6 Inanobori    1958.05  1959.11  Ms1
 6 Sasada       1961.07  1963.09  Ms1
 6 Hokkai       1962.07  1964.03  Ms1
 6 Daiogi       1971.07  1972.11  Ms2
 6 Raiko        1977.01  1980.05  Ms2
 6 Arai         1981.01  1984.01  Ms3
 6 Asahimaru    2002.11  2008.01  Ms2

 5 Hidenobori   1958.03  1959.11  Ms1
 5 Tominobori   1958.09  1959.09  Ms2
 5 Ryushoyama   1977.03  1980.11  Ms2
 5 Asahizakura  1984.01  1988.03  Ms1
 5 Shoeito      1993.05  1996.11  Ms3
 5 Takamihana   1995.11  2000.11  Ms4
 5 Tochinoyama  1999.01  2007.03  Ms2


Most appearances in Ms1-Ms5 before earning first promotion to juryo (promotion was earned in the last listed basho unless otherwise noted):

 # Rikishi      First    Last     HiRk
--------------------------------------
15 Mikiyama     1957.09  1963.09  J8    1963.11 Ms6e 7-0

10 Edohibiki    1965.05  1967.09  J1    1968.05 Ms16w 7-0
10 Daigaku      1987.03  1990.11  J2

 9 Kiyokuni     1961.01  1963.03  O
 9 Wakanofuji   1979.01  1981.01  M2

 8 Tamaarashi   1960.11  1962.01  M4
 8 Maedahana    1962.05  1964.07  J4
 8 Higashi      1962.11  1967.09  J3
 8 Fukumoto     1969.05  1972.07  J12   1972.09 Ms6e 6-1
 8 Banryuyama   1971.05  1974.05  K
 8 Aobayama     1972.01  1974.03  K

 7 Kashiwaryu   1953.01  1956.01  J17
 7 Kawachiyama  1960.09  1963.05  J7
 7 Tochifuji    1965.03  1967.05  M3
 7 Oshio        1968.05  1969.09  K
 7 Shiraiwa     1979.01  1982.11  J7
 7 Kotohakusan  1985.11  1989.07  J4
 7 Tanaka       2000.07  2003.03  J4
 7 Tsurugidake  2007.01  2010.09  M16
 7 Sokokurai    2007.09  2009.11  M2    active


Edit: To summarize a bit - of the 11 rikishi who experienced 8 or more top makushita appearances without juryo, all 11 eventually made it. Of the 15 rikishi who had 7 basho, 9 made it. Of 26 rikishi who had 6 basho, 19 made it. Of 42 rikishi who had 5 appearances, 35 made it.

Or chronologically:

  • 94 rikishi made (at least) 5 top makushita appearances without having been sekitori.
  • 35/94 (37%) got promoted after their 5th appearance, 7 failed and never got back to the top 5, and 52 got further opportunities.
  • 19/52 (37%) got promoted after their 6th appearance, 7 more failed permanently, and 26 got yet more opportunities.
  • 9/26 (35%) got promoted after their 7th appearance, 6 failed and 11 moved on.
  • Those 11 then all made it in the end.

Dropout rates: 7/59 (12%) after five, 7/33 (21%) after six, 6/17 (35%) after seven.

Edited by Asashosakari
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On 13/11/2017 at 23:19, Asashosakari said:

Most appearances in Ms1-Ms5 without ever earning promotion to juryo:[...]
 7 Kairyu       2012.05  2017.05  Ms2   active

Maybe also the only rikishi (active or otherwise) whose name is identical to that of a Pokémon.

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Today during the broadcast, Tamawashi fought Arawashi. They displayed this picture of Mongolia's national bird, which is apparently where they draw the "washi" in their names from.

56CTlqW.jpg

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On 09/24/17 at 10:29, Asashosakari said:

Of course it couldn't be any other way since he'd also be the first yokozuna to win an 11-4 yusho. ;-)

every 11-4 yusho has been a first.

Tochiazuma, first 11-4

Musashimaru, first with playoff

Harumafuji, first yokozuna to win

also, tochiazuma is the only rikishi to yusho with 11-4 and not also zensho

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20 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Trivia question: In the 15-day era, what do the tournaments (and only these) Aki 1973, Haru 1980, Natsu 1992 and Natsu 2006 have in common?

Hint: Has something to do with maegashira and sanyaku.

Somewhat of a shot in the dark-kyujo hiramaku rikishi were fewer than kyujo yaku-rikishi?

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1 hour ago, McBugger said:

Somewhat of a shot in the dark-kyujo hiramaku rikishi were fewer than kyujo yaku-rikishi?

It's sort of related to kyujo in sanyaku, but not like that.

Edit: To be more specific, it's a possible consequence of sanyaku kyujo. (It can theoretically also happen without those kyujo but in practice it wouldn't.)

Edited by Asashosakari

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10 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

It's sort of related to kyujo in sanyaku, but not like that.

Edit: To be more specific, it's a possible consequence of sanyaku kyujo. (It can theoretically also happen without those kyujo but in practice it wouldn't.)

Hmm... hang on, I'd like to have another shot at this.

e: Is it related to torikumi pairings?

Edited by McBugger

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Just now, Asashosakari said:

Yes.

Multiple maegashira in the 3 last bouts of senshuuraku? 

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7 minutes ago, McBugger said:

Multiple maegashira in the 3 last bouts of senshuuraku? 

Nah, there'll be only one Maegashira there, but it probably has something to do with ratio of Sanyaku-Maegashira matchups.

Edit: Sorry, you might still be right - I supposed the original question already included this basho.

Edited by Jakusotsu

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18 minutes ago, McBugger said:

Multiple maegashira in the 3 last bouts of senshuuraku? 

Bingo. :-) They're the only tournaments in which the sanyaku soroibumi on the final day included more than one maegashira. (In 1980 even only because one of the scheduled three bouts didn't take place.)

Jakusotsu, you've actually sniffed out the motivation behind this bit of research - after Kise's withdrawal I briefly wondered if it would/could happen this time.

At least one maegashira in the soroibumi has happened around 80 times in the 390 15-day tournaments, so about once in five tournaments. Of course it tends to be clustered quite a bit whenever the high ranks are getting old, e.g. it's happened in four of the last six basho now and will happen again this time.

Disclaimer: Older torikumi in the DB are reconstructed if I'm not mistaken, not based on primary sources. But the Day 15 schedules follow such a strict formula that I expect them to be fully correct. (Except for one bug I ran into, but that's for another thread.)

Edited by Asashosakari
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Just now, Asashosakari said:

Bingo. :-) They're the only tournaments in which the sanyaku soroibumi on the final day included more than one maegashira. (In 1980 even only because one of the scheduled three bouts didn't take place.)

Jakusotsu, you've actually sniffed out the motivation behind this bit of research - after Kise's withdrawal I briefly wondered if it would/could happen this time.

It still could, couldn't it? I mean, there's no guarantee that Hakuho or Goeido or Takayasu won't withdraw.

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7 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Bingo. :-) They're the only tournaments in which the sanyaku soroibumi on the final day included more than one maegashira. (In 1980 even only because one of the scheduled three bouts didn't take place.)

Jakusotsu, you've actually sniffeed out the motivation behind this bit of research - after Kise's withdrawal I briefly wondered if it would/could happen this time.

Yeah, the term san'yaku soroibumi is a bit of a stretch at that stage though isn't it? I almost wrote kore yori san'yaku myself and then scrubbed it out.

Very enjoyable little quiz, did you use Excel to dig this up?

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10 minutes ago, Asashosakari said:

Bingo. :-) They're the only tournaments in which the sanyaku soroibumi on the final day included more than one maegashira. (In 1980 even only because one of the scheduled three bouts didn't take place.)

Jakusotsu, you've actually sniffed out the motivation behind this bit of research - after Kise's withdrawal I briefly wondered if it would/could happen this time.

At least one maegashira in the soroibumi has happened around 80 times in the 390 15-day tournaments, so about once in five tournaments. Of course it tends to be clustered quite a bit whenever the high ranks are getting old, e.g. it's happened in four of the last six basho now and will happen again this time.

Disclaimer: Older torikumi in the DB are reconstructed if I'm not mistaken, not based on primary sources. But the Day 15 schedules follow such a strict formula that I expect them to be fully correct. (Except for one bug I ran into, but that's for another thread.)

@Asashosakari: wasn’t there one Basho where Kotoyuki took Kotoshogiku’s place in the sanyaku soroibumi and fought Terunofuji.

does that count or not?

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8 minutes ago, McBugger said:

Yeah, the term san'yaku soroibumi is a bit of a stretch at that stage though isn't it?

Depends...so far it has never happened that a pure maegashira bout was part of the last three. ;-) So I think it's fair to consider the two maegashira as exceptional sanyaku participants there.
 

Quote

Very enjoyable little quiz, did you use Excel to dig this up?

Sure, and in a very brute way, too - simply grabbed the entire output from here and then extracted the last three bouts / last six participants for each basho.


 

5 minutes ago, rhyen said:

@Asashosakari: wasn’t there one Basho where Kotoyuki took Kotoshogiku’s place in the sanyaku soroibumi and fought Terunofuji. does that count or not?

Sure, why not? It was a normally scheduled bout.

Edited by Asashosakari

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6 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

Bingo. :-) They're the only tournaments in which the sanyaku soroibumi on the final day included more than one maegashira. (In 1980 even only because one of the scheduled three bouts didn't take place.)

Jakusotsu, you've actually sniffed out the motivation behind this bit of research - after Kise's withdrawal I briefly wondered if it would/could happen this time.

At least one maegashira in the soroibumi has happened around 80 times in the 390 15-day tournaments, so about once in five tournaments. Of course it tends to be clustered quite a bit whenever the high ranks are getting old, e.g. it's happened in four of the last six basho now and will happen again this time.

Disclaimer: Older torikumi in the DB are reconstructed if I'm not mistaken, not based on primary sources. But the Day 15 schedules follow such a strict formula that I expect them to be fully correct. (Except for one bug I ran into, but that's for another thread.)

I made a graph of this then gave it up because it wasn't very visually interesting but ever since the 6 basho per year started the time period of yokozuna careers slowly started aligning and from the late 70s there are these pulses of yokozuna retirements at about 12 year intervals. In these pulses there are also a bunch of ozeki promotions who never make yokozuna as well.

The weird thing is that yokozuna promotions don't line up, but rikishi's hatsu basho who then become yokozuna do line up in these groupings!!

It really made me wonder how important it could be that a power vacuum allows some rikishi to establish himself, and once there, seriously reduces the chances of others. You would think that somebody of great skill would be able to break through all of that but

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It's much more likely for things to be clustered than for them to be spread out uniformly.  I can't find a picture of it online, but I had an art history textbook whose cover was a Roman mosaic that depicted things scattered on the floor.  The problem was that everything had exactly the same amount of space around it, and so it looked ridiculously staged.  It's the same thing that makes people talk about slumps and hot streaks in sports, when in reality common variation just causes things to generally be clustered rather than at a uniform density.

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That's a fine assumption if all matches are 50% W/L, which maybe is ok for taking all of makushita, but talking about Yokozuna is totally different. I would bet the performance of nearly all yokozuna would fail a binary number random test.

Anyway here is the graph, hatsu dohyo of yokozuna (the number of yokozuna is not right cause I just C&Ped it from the database)

yoko.png

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Looking at Endo's schedule on days 14 and 15 makes me wonder: how often has it happened before that one Maegashira had the first and the last bout on consecutive days?

(hard to query, I know...)

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4 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Looking at Endo's schedule on days 14 and 15 makes me wonder: how often has it happened before that one Maegashira had the first and the last bout on consecutive days?

(hard to query, I know...)

I was wondering the same thing when I noticed it...

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5 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

Looking at Endo's schedule on days 14 and 15 makes me wonder: how often has it happened before that one Maegashira had the first and the last bout on consecutive days?

(hard to query, I know...)

Here are all such instances:

Goeido in Aki 2007, days 14 and 15 (like Endo against Hakuho on day 14, and guess who Hakuho's day 15 opponent is tomorrow?)

Takanosato in Nagoya 1980, days 13 and 14

Futagodake in Haru 1974, days 12 and 13 (the other way around with the first bout on day 12 and the last bout on the next day)

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Onosho has tied the record for most bouts in one basho decided by hatakikomi (8).  Unlike the others, it's even in terms of wins.  All other instances of 8 decisions split at least 6-2.  Going down to 7 per basho there's one 4-3 split, but the rest were 6-1 and 7-0.  Interestingly, 2 of the other times there were 8, the notable rikishi was the majority loser, but in all instances of 7 he was the majority winner.

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query_bout.aspx?show_form=0&group_by=basho&group_by2=rikishi1&having=7&kimarite=7

Edited by Gurowake
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Hanakaze has been the oldest rikishi in Ozumo since the retirement of Tochitenko after May 2011.  I have no idea how that compares to others, but it seems like a really long time, although it's probably another effect of there being the most long-serving rikishi all occurring relatively recently.

I discovered this when I went to update my list of prospects which starts with making a query on the current banzuke and sorting by birthdate (and then going to the last page).  Somehow I typed in 2011.11 instead of 2017.11, and it at first seemed right since Hanakaze was the oldest.  But then I saw Meisei on the very last page and realized I screwed something up.

Edited by Gurowake
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