Gurowake

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Next tournament will have at least 3 former Makuuchi Yusho winners in Juryo (Tochinoshin, Ichinojo, Tokushoryu), possibly 4 if Asanoyama isn’t promoted… 

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I'd been meaning to post this ever since I worked out my juryo banzuke guess, and comparing it to the real thing reminded me just now: Hatsu 2023 is, by a mile, the new record holder in the number of juryo rikishi who fought to 10+ real losses.

That query is limited to the "small juryo" era since 1967 for a fair comparison, but even expanding it to the full 15-bout era, the most recent basho is still tied for the lead - with two tournaments that featured 41 and 45 (!) juryo rikishi, respectively.

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3 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I'd been meaning to post this ever since I worked out my juryo banzuke guess, and comparing it to the real thing reminded me just now: Hatsu 2023 is, by a mile, the new record holder in the number of juryo rikishi who fought to 10+ real losses.

That query is limited to the "small juryo" era since 1967 for a fair comparison, but even expanding it to the full 15-bout era, the most recent basho is still tied for the lead - with two tournaments that featured 41 and 45 (!) juryo rikishi, respectively.

And it would have been worse if Atamifuji's 3-8-4 had been added.  Also, with only 5 double-digit winners, the asymmetry is really striking -- no "diamond shape" to the final standings chart as often happens.

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Occasions of new makuuchi, new juryo and new makushita do-beya rikishi in the same basho, during the 6 BPY era:

Dewanoumi 1964.01, Futagoyama 1981.01 , Isegahama 1965.05 and 1969.09 (promotions in all divisions), Kasugano 1976.11  , Kitanoumi 2012.01, Kokonoe 1978.07, Miyagino 1967.03 and 2023.03, Nishonoseki 1958.05, Tokitsukaze 1958.09

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2 hours ago, sahaven111 said:

Has Ichinojo broken the record for fastest fall to Juryo after a yusho?

As far as I can tell, yes.

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If I did the query correctly, Day 8 will be the first time in history with no Ozeki or Yokozuna on the torikumi. Seems really surprising, so someone please correct me if it's wrong.

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

If I did the query correctly, Day 8 will be the first time in history with no Ozeki or Yokozuna on the torikumi. Seems really surprising, so someone please correct me if it's wrong.

Yes, but only for bashos where we have torikumi data. Japanese news sites state that this is the first time the torikumi has no Ozeki or Yokozuna starting from the Showa era.

For example there are bashos like Natsu 1904 where there were definitely days with no Ozeki or Yokozuna. However, since the actual torikumi data is not available, these bashos don't show up in your query.

Edited by Kamitsuumi
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I threw together some data today to see which active rikishi is the most capable technician. Its fun stats, but probably doesn't deserve its own thread, so I'll throw it in here.

My metric: Of all wins by all active rikishi, who has the greatest cumulative share of all of the winning techniques? That is, if you are the only one to have ever used a technique, you get 100% added to your total. If you've used a move 3 times and somebody else has used it only once, you'd get 75% added. Each yorikiri win is worth 0.001126%.

Here's the list of everyone with more than a 50% score, together with the moves they have more than 3% of:

Jd57w 	Satonofuji  	326%	tasukizori: 64%, zubuneri: 63%, izori: 62%, uchigake: 23%, kainahineri: 17%, kawazugake: 12%, kakenage: 12%, ushiromotare: 11%, ipponzeoi: 10%, kotehineri: 6%, sotogake: 6%, kirikaeshi: 6%, watashikomi: 5%, kubinage: 5%, susoharai: 5%, utchari: 4%
Sd90w 	Ishiura     	220%	mitokorozeme: 100%, susotori: 50%, komatasukui: 23%, shitatehineri: 9%, susoharai: 5%, harimanage: 4%, hansoku: 4%, shitatedashinage: 4%, ashitori: 3%
Ms1w 	Terutsuyoshi	218%	kozumatori: 50%, sotokomata: 33%, okurigake: 25%, koshinage: 20%, sakatottari: 12%, ashitori: 10%, zubuneri: 9%, komatasukui: 9%, tottari: 7%, kainahineri: 6%, ketaguri: 4%
Sd55w 	Kyokutaisei 	210%	chongake: 67%, ketaguri: 52%, susoharai: 37%, nichonage: 13%, kawazugake: 12%, tsukite: 5%, okurinage: 4%
M8w 	Ura         	148%	okuritsuridashi: 50%, koshinage: 20%, tsutaezori: 17%, ashitori: 10%, tasukizori: 9%, kubihineri: 7%, tottari: 6%, ushiromotare: 6%, okurihikiotoshi: 5%, izori: 4%, hikkake: 4%
Jd64w 	Fujinoteru  	146%	tsukaminage: 100%, tsutaezori: 33%
Sd48w 	Matsuda     	131%	nimaigeri: 54%, nichonage: 31%, ketaguri: 9%, sakatottari: 6%, kakenage: 5%, ipponzeoi: 5%, uchigake: 5%, kekaeshi: 3%
Ms44w 	Kotodairyu  	120%	yaguranage: 100%, komatasukui: 5%
Sd86w 	Asatenmai   	108%	okuritsuridashi: 50%, ipponzeoi: 14%, izori: 8%, ushiromotare: 6%, watashikomi: 5%, kubihineri: 3%
S1e 	Wakatakakage	107%	okuritsuriotoshi: 100%
J8e 	Hidenoumi   	75%	waridashi: 50%, ushiromotare: 11%
M5w 	Midorifuji  	71%	okurigake: 25%, uchimuso: 11%, katasukashi: 7%, hansoku: 5%, koshikudake: 4%
J2w 	Tochinoshin 	69%	tsuridashi: 16%, tsuriotoshi: 11%, kubihineri: 7%, uchimuso: 5%, harimanage: 4%, koshikudake: 4%
Sd13e 	Keitenkai   	66%	kozumatori: 25%, kirikaeshi: 7%, chongake: 4%, shitatehineri: 4%, kekaeshi: 3%
M1e 	Tamawashi   	65%	gasshohineri: 33%, hansoku: 4%, kubihineri: 3%
Jd53w 	Mori        	63%	nichonage: 31%, nimaigeri: 8%, sotogake: 6%
Jk10e 	Motokiyama  	63%	tsuriotoshi: 11%, izori: 8%, kainahineri: 6%, ipponzeoi: 5%, shitatehineri: 4%, kubihineri: 3%, tokkurinage: 3%
M16e 	Chiyoshoma  	62%	susoharai: 7%, okurihikiotoshi: 5%, chongake: 4%, harimanage: 4%, tottari: 4%, uchigake: 4%, kekaeshi: 3%
M13w 	Kotoeko     	59%	amiuchi: 18%, uchimuso: 11%, kakenage: 9%, ipponzeoi: 5%
M7w 	Takayasu    	59%	komatasukui: 14%, uwatehineri: 6%, ushiromotare: 6%
K2w 	Tobizaru    	58%	kekaeshi: 18%, sakatottari: 6%, okurihikiotoshi: 5%, komatasukui: 5%, ketaguri: 4%, fumidashi: 4%, kubihineri: 3%
Jd76w 	Sakura      	58%	waridashi: 50%
Jd13w 	Asakiryu    	58%	tsutaezori: 33%, tasukizori: 9%, ashitori: 7%, uchimuso: 5%
M11e 	Azumaryu    	57%	kozumatori: 25%, uwatedashinage: 4%, kirikaeshi: 4%
Sd25w 	Sazanami    	57%	gasshohineri: 33%, ipponzeoi: 5%, harimanage: 4%, sotogake: 4%
Sd61e 	Shinyashiki 	56%	okurigake: 25%, amiuchi: 8%, kubihineri: 7%, kekaeshi: 3%
Sd35e 	Shosei      	56%	zubuneri: 16%, kainahineri: 10%, watashikomi: 5%, makiotoshi: 4%, izori: 4%
Jd95e 	Urutora     	55%	ashitori: 10%, uchigake: 8%, kirikaeshi: 5%, ipponzeoi: 5%, shitatehineri: 5%, izori: 4%
Sd62e 	Asanojo     	53%	koshinage: 20%, sokubiotoshi: 7%, okurinage: 4%
Sd32w 	Aratakayama 	52%	susotori: 50%
Sd17w 	Katsunofuji 	51%	sabaori: 25%, tsuriotoshi: 11%, koshikudake: 4%
Jd10e 	Tsugaruumi  	51%	okurigake: 25%, uchimuso: 5%
Jd5e 	Sekizuka    	50%	osakate: 29%, tokkurinage: 10%

Satonofuji, perhaps best known for the bow twirling he does at the end of each tournament day, is clearly sumo's supreme technician. I guess that makes sense, given that he was chosen to be one of NHK's technique demonstrators.

Four techniques have only been used by a single active rikishi:

Edited by BlckKnght
updating data with 1996-1999 matches
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I was surprised to see Hidenoumi up there, then I remembered his rare technical prowess for pushing people out with his arse (Laughing...)

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Erm, maybe you should remove the points for hansoku?

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11 hours ago, Gurowake said:

Erm, maybe you should remove the points for hansoku?

Hmm, the guys who have it in their list have actually got an unusual number of them. Midorifuji has three, Ishiura has two. There are only 55 in the dataset.

I didn't put any effort in to sanitizing the data. It's using results scraped from SumoDB (in an off-basho time of year to avoid beating the server too hard when it's busy).

Now that I think of it, my dataset probably sells Satonofuji's accomplishments a little bit short, as it only contains data starting from the January 2000 basho to the present (which is long enough to cover the whole careers of all the top division men), and he'd been fighting for several years at that point.

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I can't help but thinking that someone is going to tell Satonofuji about this, and then advise him that he could put the title out of reach if he could punch out a few amiuchi or maybe a sabaori.

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So, to give Satonofuji his full due, I scraped a couple more years of data, so that his matches from 1996-1999 are all included. His score goes up to the incridible 326%. None of the guys who started before him are anywhere near 50%, so I don't think I need to bring in more 90s data. I'm going to edit the post above to have the updated data.

I don't believe any of the other scores changed much, though there will be a  notable change after I add results from the current basho. Midorifuji's win on day 10 was by waridashi, which had been used by only twice before by currently active rikishi. The recalculation of its value will knock Hidenoumi well down the chart, and Sakura to less than 50%.

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Enho has run his career losses by oshitaoshi to 49, 4th all-time and trailing the leader, Kitaharima, by 15. His 47 such losses as a sekitori are far and away the most ever, 8 ahead of second-place Terao and Yoshikaze.

Edited by Reonito
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On 22/03/2023 at 20:54, Reonito said:

Enho has run his career losses by oshitaoshi to 49, 4th all-time and trailing the leader, Kitaharima, by 15. His 47 such losses as a sekitori are far and away the most ever, 8 ahead of second-place Terao and Yoshikaze.

Kitaharima is still actively getting shoved onto his bum and shows no signs of stopping. Enho will probably need more than those 15 losses!

Edited by Koorifuu

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9 minutes ago, Koorifuu said:

Kitaharima is still actively getting shoved onto his bum and shows no signs of stopping. Endo will probably need more than those 15 losses!

True. Enho is a lot younger, so he has time on his side. Losing by this kimarite seems to be a hallmark of lightweight rikishi, for obvious reasons.

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Kitaharima is 36, with 1068 bouts, oshitaoshi 64 (12.1%) and, importantly, even if he hangs around a little longer it will probably be in Makushita where he only has 7 losses per basho to give (:-().

Enho is 28, with 436 bouts, oshitaoshi 49 (an amazing 23.3%) and seems to be a sekitori for now.

Although Kitaharima is eligible for a kabu, I haven't heard his name come up; he may retire soon anyway.

Statistics (as you know) are dicey things, but I guess we could estimate how long it might take Enho to pass Kitaharima for the "pancake championship".

Kitaharima: retires in 1 year = 6 basho = 42 bouts => (0.121)·(42) = 5+64 = 69 career oshitaoshi losses

Enho:69 - 49 = 20 to tie, 21 to go ahead; 21/0.233 = 90 bouts => 6.basho; so sometime in Natsu 2024.

[Note: Kitaharima is taller and heavier than Enho, and many of the oshitaoshi losses I've seen are the classic "big shove"; Enho comes in so low that his losses involve prying him up and flipping him over like an okonomiyaki (done very quickly by Tochinoshi on day 7)]

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Juryo yusho winners Jan 2015 - March 2023 (N = 49):

Winning scores -- 10 (6), 11 (11), 12 (14), 13 (14), 14 (4), 15 (0)

Winner's rank -- J1-2 (13), J3-4 (9), J5-6 (8), J7-8 (3), J9-10 (2), J11-12 (9), J13-14 (4)

I tried to place the winners into one of three groups:

I (previous Makuuchi rikishi who are coming back after injury, demotion, etc.) 28

II (hot new prospects that are rising through Juryo, like Ms15TDs) 8

III Juryo regulars who (up to now) have spent most of their time in Juryo 12

[Note: I haven't placed Oshoma yet, as we don't know if he's a II or a III; I ranked Tsurugisho as a III, but he may make a home in Makuuchi in the future].

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Yusho winner Spoilers below!!!

 

Spoiler

After 86 years of Futabayama winning a Yusho as shin-sekiwake, Wakatakakage won it last year as a shin-sekiwake, and now after exactly a year, Kiribayama wins it as shin-sekiwake. 

 

Edited by Kaitetsu
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2 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

Juryo yusho winners Jan 2015 - March 2023 (N = 49):

Winning scores -- 10 (6), 11 (11), 12 (14), 13 (14), 14 (4), 15 (0)

So of the 4 14-1 Y, 2 are in the last two basho

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1 hour ago, Reonito said:

So of the 4 14-1 Y, 2 are in the last two basho

Yes.  The four are

11/2017 Sokokurai, J7w (4 years after his return to Sumo)

9/2020 Chiyonokuni, J11w (returning from his third injury)

1/2023 Asanoyama, J12w (returning ex-Ozeki)

3/2023 Ichinojo, J3e (returning ex-Sekiwake).

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