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Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2015

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I think I understand the promotion of komusubi in past times (pre-6-basho-era)

What do we have now? You have to show superior sumo for three consecutive bashos. That means superior sumo within a time period of a half year. And when there are only two tournaments in a year, then two superior bashos could be enough for a promotion. With your first good basho as maegashira you get promoted to K or S (depending on free slots or what ever) and with your second good basho you get your promotion to ozeki. So the relative requirements are still comperable: superios sumo within six months.

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Guessing the number of Komusubi slots correct seems to be very important for GTB... If you predict two of them and then there are three, all your Maegashira guesses are affected by it.

Could work out in your favour, though. One time I got the number of komusubi wrong (must have been in 2005 or so), my maegashira guesses were so bad that I actually scored more points with the shifted version than I'd have scored without the komusubi error. ;-)

This is funny. So it is not this important because it is always just half a rank.

It was Hatsu 2004 Banzuke when you predicted three Komusubi but then Toki was M1e. (On the banzuke...) I hope you don't mind that I looked it up...

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First off, Congrats to OZEKI Terunofuji!! My 2nd favorite sumotori.

My question: With a victory over Hakuho, will this give credence to putting Ichinojo in the Sekiwake East slot? In March, Tochiozan had the better score, hence his posting as Komusubi East. This time around, the records were even, and looking at individual matches, 6 out of 7 losses from Ichinojo were Sanyaku Ranked, the exception being M1W Tochinoshin. Tochiozan, on the other hand, had only 4 losses from Sanyaku Ranks, and only one victory against an Ozeki, Goeido. I'm not historically versed in Banzuke making, but what do you all think?

BTW: I'm doing my own "GTB" for the first time, wow. It seemed complicated, then seemed easy, then got complicated again!!!!!

Aloha!

To put it another way, if two rikishi have the same result for a basho, the one who was ranked higher will be ranked higher in the next basho as well.

Well, basically yes... but please check what happened at the Sekiwake ranks on the Nagoya 2014 banzuke (sorry, can't hyperlink when using smartphone)

So remember: with the NSK it is NSN*

*= Never Say Never ;-)

Huh? This is in no way related to the statement. It says "A implies B" with A being rikishi having same score (or the higher ranked having a better score) and B is the higher ranked rikishi stays ahead of the lower ranked rikishi. Your case simply doesn't have "A", it does have the lower ranked rikishi with the higher score, so there is absolutely no conclusion here. Using such examples is just making me cringe.

* I know of one, and only one exemption of the "rule" in question: If two yokozuna have the same score, but the lower ranked wins the yusho playoff he very well may end up ahead on the next banzuke (but even this is a recent development).

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* I know of one, and only one exemption of the "rule" in question: If two yokozuna have the same score, but the lower ranked wins the yusho playoff he very well may end up ahead on the next banzuke (but even this is a recent development).

Ozeki as well.

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Looking for precedents regarding Terunofuji's promotion, I stumbled upon this guy:

http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Rikishi.aspx?r=3743

Any idea why he wasn't promoted to Ozeki right after his yusho?

It's quite clear. He managed only 27 wins.

They were waiting for him to get 28. That was the 'magic number'. ;-)

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What about Myogiryu as a third Sekiwake?

What about Myogiryu as M1?

7-8 Sekiwake drop to Meagashira happened only 10 times and is confined to the years 1968-1992. 81 times the normal drop to Komusubi. Remaining at Sekiwake is even rarer (5 times). I happened recently but then there was shortage in candidates. Myogiryu for Komusubi next time is a safe bet.

9-6 as M1 get to Komusubi 61 times, to Sekiwake 18 times, and rarely (2, last 1974) remain at M1.

So the 3 Komusubi solution seems to be most consistent with history.

Very good summary :-)

Many years ago, I listed some "rules", when a Sekiwake with 7-8 drops to Komusubi and when he falls to Maegashira.

I'm not sure if these "rules" are known by the Banzuke Committee and if they are still in effect.

But according to my former "rules", Myogiryu has to placed at M1 this time.

My gut feeling (call it GTB instinct) would place him at K2w :-S

One additional thing to consider is that there are no strong candidates for the M1 positions. Based on that consideration and the statistics above, it would seem most likely that Myogiryu would fall to M1. But it's anyone's guess, and that's what keeps GTB interesting. Can anyone produce a list of the occasions where there have been more than 2 komusubi, for further analysis?

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Can anyone produce a list of the occasions where there have been more than 2 komusubi, for further analysis?

Maybe this query is helpful? All basho since 1980 with three or more komusubi, rows are rikishi, first series of columns is the basho before, so you can see their scores leading to the komusubi rank right away.

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One additional thing to consider is that there are no strong candidates for the M1 positions. Based on that consideration and the statistics above, it would seem most likely that Myogiryu would fall to M1.

I don't think this has anything to do with it. There's generally a constant need to overpromote people into the top of the maegashira ranks, and adding one more maegashira is not going to help the situation much. There's nothing particularly special about M1 compared to Komusubi, which certainly is special.

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In addition to all promotions there is a question: Why isn't Shikimori Innosuke 40 promoted to Kimura Shonosuke 38?

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Now that the Juryo promotions are announced, we can take a look at the once-again over-crowded top of Makushita. (...) On the other side of this space, there are way too many rikishi who want to fit into the Ms9-11 area, and there will be a few in that area that probably won't be happy with where they end up.

Yup, looks like that to me, too. There are 10 rikishi who end up going into Ms9-13, but they all arguably should be at Ms10 or Ms11. So there will be two who get a bit lucky, and several more who don't. Will be interesting to see if the lucky ones will be the 3-4's from Ms5, or the 5-2's from Ms17w/Ms18e, or maybe even the two 6-1's from further down. Probably some inexplicable mix of two. ;-) Edited by Asashosakari

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Maybe Tochinoshin's lifetime penalty that showed up when he got his first reYusho in Juryo will keep him out of Kosumibi here.

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Can anyone produce a list of the occasions where there have been more than 2 komusubi, for further analysis?

Maybe this query is helpful? All basho since 1980 with three or more komusubi, rows are rikishi, first series of columns is the basho before, so you can see their scores leading to the komusubi rank right away.

Yes and no. The 2006 case is compelling for 3 komusubi, but the lack of any more recent history and the interesting recent promotion rules make me wonder if how relevant this data is. Thanks for the query! I wish I could figure out how to use it better to produce my own data.

Now I'm really puzzling over whether 9-6 at M1 is enough to leap over 8-7 at Komusubi. This is a mess! I'd like to hear the debate among the banzuke makers.

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Now I'm really puzzling over whether 9-6 at M1 is enough to leap over 8-7 at Komusubi. This is a mess! I'd like to hear the debate among the banzuke makers.

You mean Takarafuji and Tochinoshin as the new Sekiwake leaving Tochiozan and Ichinojo where they are? I don't think this will ever happen.

Last time even a 10-5 for M1 Tochiozan couldn't leap him over 8-7 Komusubi Myogiryu.

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You mean Takarafuji and Tochinoshin as the new Sekiwake leaving Tochiozan and Ichinojo where they are? I don't think this will ever happen.

Last time even a 10-5 for M1 Tochiozan couldn't leap him over 8-7 Komusubi Myogiryu.

Yeah, that's rather unlikely. 30 previous cases with one (or more) komusubi at 8-7 and one (or more) M1 at 9-6 - the only time a M1 went ahead of a komusubi was the very first occasion back in 1954.
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You mean Takarafuji and Tochinoshin as the new Sekiwake leaving Tochiozan and Ichinojo where they are? I don't think this will ever happen.

Last time even a 10-5 for M1 Tochiozan couldn't leap him over 8-7 Komusubi Myogiryu.

Yeah, that's rather unlikely. 30 previous cases with one (or more) komusubi at 8-7 and one (or more) M1 at 9-6 - the only time a M1 went ahead of a komusubi was the very first occasion back in 1954.

I didn't notice the situation last basho, which Tenshinhan pointed out. And this history seems to eliminate that case. Interesting! Well, I hope we aren't ruining the GTB game. I've never submitted an entry myself. I just enjoy the exercise of puzzling this out. Thanks to both of you for the info!

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One additional thing to consider is that there are no strong candidates for the M1 positions. Based on that consideration and the statistics above, it would seem most likely that Myogiryu would fall to M1.

I don't think this has anything to do with it. There's generally a constant need to overpromote people into the top of the maegashira ranks, and adding one more maegashira is not going to help the situation much. There's nothing particularly special about M1 compared to Komusubi, which certainly is special.

I have to disagree.

Adding one more maegashira really would help and it HAS something to do with it ;-)

What "Ack!" is pointing out, is exactly what my "rules" would reveal.

If there was a strong candidate for M1e (like Sadanoumi M3e with 10-5 or Toyonoshima M2e with 9-6), M1e would be occupied, AND Myogiryu would be K2w.

But now, as there are two strong candidates for the two Komusubi slots AND M1e is unoccupied, Myogiryu is very likely to fall to M1e

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Just a newby question. Is banzuke really secret until it's displayed or inside the sumo family someone manage to have some disclosures from gjyoi?

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Well aside from what the kyokai announces, I don't think all promotions and demotions are set in stone. Remember that they have to move account for over 600 wrestlers that have to be moved up and down. According to what Wikipedia says about the banzuke, a panel of shimpan get together after the basho and decide all the rankings. After that assigned gyoji have to then write the banzuke calligraphy style, which can take up to a week. But then they do keep it under lock and key until they officially release it. So in a way it will be somewhat secret.

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Well aside from what the kyokai announces, I don't think all promotions and demotions are set in stone.

There's not much time in between though. All the banzuke-making happens on one day (Wednesdays after the end of each basho), it's just that they settle the important stuff like juryo promotions first and announce that to the press immediately, before they move on to the rest of the ranking.

The 23 oyakata involved in it are from all corners of the Kyokai, so while I have no proof, my assumption is that any sekitori who actually wants to find out his next rank is able to do so. Those ranked below juryo perhaps not. :-) As with many things in the Kyokai, I wouldn't be surprised if it depends on the character of each oyakata, too...some might be very serious about keeping the next banzuke secret even on the inside (i.e. to their own rikishi), while others will only keep quiet to outsiders.

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I doubt they find out right away, but if you ask a rikishi (lower ranked or no) two weeks or so before the basho, and if they are not the type to keep a secret, they will tell you what their upcoming rank is - so word gets out one way or another.

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pretty clear to me - a sanyaku rank has a certain value, so if you lose 7-8 as a sekiwake you will keep your sanyaku rank, no matter what.
so Myogiryu will be Komusubi in Nagoya.
if you get 8-7 as a sanyaku, you will move up - so both K will be S in Nagoya.
bad luck for Shin, but he will move from West to East 1 with his 9-6.

well, they could install a third K, but already the number of Ozeki goes from 3 to 4...
so 10 sanyaku in Natsu but 12 in Nagoya ?? hmmm
but don't get me wrong, Shin deserves a K promotion... but u don't always get what u deserve, right ?

much more tricky in my humble opinion is the Juryo/MU demotion/promotion situation...
I see five candidates for promotion, but six for demotion....
will they keep T-oiwa on M16w with a 7-8 as 16e, but demote Soko as 7e 1-4-10 ??
or will Soko stay in ?

they also could demote both... then we have 6 promotions.... but will it be Daieisho 10-5 as 7e or Kagamio 12-3 as 9e (Yusho advantage...)
or promote both and keep Kagayaki in Juryo.... ???

omg - super tricky, isn't it ?

I wonder how many people sit together in the NHK banzuke committee to decide all this...
and how many bottle of sake are emptied.
any enveloppes changing hands ?? - with cards only inside of course "Season greetings"

I guess they will surprise most of us with a completely different solution..... as always ;-)


Edited by Andonishiki

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Why would Kagayaki even be considered for promotion? Even if you're demoting Chiyootori he's behind too many others. There are 6 clear downs, 5 clear ups, Satoyama is next in line to take the spot, and Daieisho would get the call if they demote Chiyootori.

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Why would Kagayaki even be considered for promotion?

You're responding to the thoughts of somebody with one kachikoshi in 22 GTB submissions. ;-)
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Why would Kagayaki even be considered for promotion?

You're responding to the thoughts of somebody with one kachikoshi in 22 GTB submissions. ;-)

Sounds like a blooming expert to me! (Scratching chin...)

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