Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2015

[HenryK 38]

I for my part would like to see three Komusubi; Myogiryu, Takarafuji and Tochinoshin all deserve a sanyaku slot.

For the more versed here, wouldn't the fact that there are three Yokozuna now but four Ozeki (and two Sekiwake) give the Kyokai an argument to balance the banzuke with a K2W?

[HenryK 38]

Is it reasonable to expect the following banzuke:

Kisenosato O Terunofuji

Goeido O Kotoshogiku

Tochiozan S Ichinojo

Takarafuji K Tochinoshin

Miogiryu M1 Sadanoumi

Aoiyama M2 Takayasu

Ikioi M3 Kaisei

I didn't know that the three Yokozunas are Intai ! Congratulations to Kisenosato at the top of the next banzuke ;)

I don't think that Terunofuji will be O1W.... and I don't believe that Aoiyama will be M2E

There was no point in stating the obvious so I just skipped them as they are not going anywhere right now. I wonder if you don't see yusho winning Teru at O1W, which of Goeido and Giku you consider more worthy of being O1W. Both are one of the most miserable Ozeki in history, have not won a single yusho and have not won more than 9 in a year or so. As for Aoiyama, not that I am impartial but in my books 9-6 from M6W is kind of more than 10-5 from M8W...apart from Takayasu I see nobody else really worthy of being M2E.

Newly promoted Ozeki have to get in line. O2W for Terunofuji.

[bettega 431]

I for my part would like to see three Komusubi; Myogiryu, Takarafuji and Tochinoshin all deserve a sanyaku slot.

For the more versed here, wouldn't the fact that there are three Yokozuna now but four Ozeki (and two Sekiwake) give the Kyokai an argument to balance the banzuke with a K2W?

I would put Myogiryu at M1. With both M1 at 9-6 it would be a shame to have Myogiruy até K and Tochinosin as M1E

Edited May 24, 2015 by bettega

[HenryK 38]

I for my part would like to see three Komusubi; Myogiryu, Takarafuji and Tochinoshin all deserve a sanyaku slot.

For the more versed here, wouldn't the fact that there are three Yokozuna now but four Ozeki (and two Sekiwake) give the Kyokai an argument to balance the banzuke with a K2W?

I would put Myogiryu at M1. With both M1 at 9-6 it would be a shame to have Myogiruy até K and Tochinosin as M1E

Agreed, but this is not what I was talking about. My wish-banzuke is Takarafuji K1E, Tochinoshin K1W, Myogiryu K2W.

Edited May 24, 2015 by HenryK

[Shikona 139]

I for my part would like to see three Komusubi; Myogiryu, Takarafuji and Tochinoshin all deserve a sanyaku slot.

For the more versed here, wouldn't the fact that there are three Yokozuna now but four Ozeki (and two Sekiwake) give the Kyokai an argument to balance the banzuke with a K2W?

Disclaimer: I don't consider myself among the more versed. But since I did look up the last banzuke with three Komosubi (Natsu 2000), I will say that that was exactly the situation then: 3Y, 4O, 2S, 3K.

[HenryK 38]

I for my part would like to see three Komusubi; Myogiryu, Takarafuji and Tochinoshin all deserve a sanyaku slot.

For the more versed here, wouldn't the fact that there are three Yokozuna now but four Ozeki (and two Sekiwake) give the Kyokai an argument to balance the banzuke with a K2W?

Disclaimer: I don't consider myself among the more versed. But since I did look up the last banzuke with three Komosubi (Natsu 2000), I will say that that was exactly the situation then: 3Y, 4O, 2S, 3K.

So maybe we have a chance ;-)

Thanks for checking, mate.

[Sumozumo 240]

I hope asashosakari isn't crying over a huge mound of scratched out scrap paper and broken pencils right now, trying to predict where everyone is going ;)

[Shitamachi 21]

Any chance harumafuji could be east Yokozuna next basho?

[rhyen 1,823]

No.

[Asameshimae 220]

I am surprised to see some comments on this forum about Teru's promotion possibly being premature. He seems the strongest candidate for Ozeki in many promotions. He has his 33 wins, took the yusho, and beat a lot of high quality talent to get there. Yes, Teru didn't/doesn't have to face the many strong rikishi from his own heya, but there are also many other cases of wrestlers who have benefited from such a situation over the years, and there are plenty of other big hitters which Teru has to fight regularly.

Sure, Hakuho et al stumbled a bit, but such developments are an aspect of sumo and sports in general. If I remember, Hakuho's own ascendency to yok-hood came at a time when Asashoryu was starting to show less consistency in his winning ways. No one would question Hak's promotion now though.

I think Teru is going to be the best Ozeki we've had in some time, barring injuries (fingers crossed). I haven't felt this sure of an ozeki promotion in quite some time.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Asameshimae

[Andreas21 183]

Terunofuji's promotion is surprising as Rijicho Kitanoumi clearly stated berforehand that a Yusho at 14-1 is required. But it is totally okay to change his mind. We might remember this when he states something in the future.

What hasn't been discussed here is the role of quality of Sumo. It may have been a deciding factor to lower the bar. I still can't believe what happened to Terunofuji in the last few months. What used to be a bit clumsy Baruto-Sumo, often getting into awkward positions which he came away with his strength, is now solid technique by which he often dominates from Tachi-ai to the end. What he did in his bout against Kisenosato for instance, I would call this Yokozuna Sumo.

I'm a fan of Terunofuji since his advent to mid-makushita, but still I'm totally struck by the events this basho. I was confident that he will become Ozeki eventually but not this dramatically fast. And I didn't see a Yusho coming when Hakuho was alternating 15-0 and 14-1 Bashos.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Andreas21

[lackmaker 434]

I hope asashosakari isn't crying over a huge mound of scratched out scrap paper and broken pencils right now, trying to predict where everyone is going ;)

Or seeing all the likely permutations and options in a calm and peaceful state.

[Shikona 139]

Terunofuji's promotion is surprising as Rijicho Kitanoumi clearly stated berforehand that a Yusho at 14-1 is required. But it is totally okay to change his mind. We might remember this when he states something in the future.

What hasn't been discussed here is the role of quality of Sumo. It may have been a deciding factor to lower the bar. I still can't believe what happened to Terunofuji in the last few months. What used to be a bit clumsy Baruto-Sumo, often getting into awkward positions which he came away with his strength, is now solid technique by which he often dominates from Tachi-ai to the end. What he did in his bout against Kisenosato for instance, I would call this Yokozuna Sumo.

I'm a fan of Terunofuji since his advent to mid-makushita, but still I'm totally struck by the events this basho. I was confident that he will become Ozeki eventually but not this dramatically fast. And I didn't see a Yusho coming when Hakuho was alternating 15-0 and 14-1 Bashos.

It's been three years since Hak gave up more than three losses, and certainly that was a factor. Still, it's more that the excellence of Hak has made it harder than average to get promotions, I would say, rather than him allowing one to sneak in.

[Kintamayama 44,646]

I for my part would like to see three Komusubi; Myogiryu, Takarafuji and Tochinoshin all deserve a sanyaku slot.

For the more versed here, wouldn't the fact that there are three Yokozuna now but four Ozeki (and two Sekiwake) give the Kyokai an argument to balance the banzuke with a K2W?

I don't think balance has anything to do with it. If the two M1s had 10-5s, I would think it possible. But 9-6? I highly doubt it. Either Myougiryuu gets demoted to M1, or only Takarafuji gets the nod. Also, that example was not so good, as it was the basho after Takatouriki got his 13-2 yusho from M14. He was the third Komusubi.

Edited May 25, 2015 by Kintamayama

[Kintamayama 44,646]

Is it reasonable to expect the following banzuke:

Kisenosato O Terunofuji

Goeido O Kotoshogiku

Tochiozan S Ichinojo

Takarafuji K Tochinoshin

Miogiryu M1 Sadanoumi

Aoiyama M2 Takayasu

Ikioi M3 Kaisei

I didn't know that the three Yokozunas are Intai ! Congratulations to Kisenosato at the top of the next banzuke ;)

I don't think that Terunofuji will be O1W.... and I don't believe that Aoiyama will be M2E

There was no point in stating the obvious so I just skipped them as they are not going anywhere right now. I wonder if you don't see yusho winning Teru at O1W, which of Goeido and Giku you consider more worthy of being O1W. Both are one of the most miserable Ozeki in history, have not won a single yusho and have not won more than 9 in a year or so. As for Aoiyama, not that I am impartial but in my books 9-6 from M6W is kind of more than 10-5 from M8W...apart from Takayasu I see nobody else really worthy of being M2E.

Newly promoted Ozeki have to get in line. O2W for Terunofuji.

In the same basho we had 3 Komusubis (Natsu 2000), Musouyama was promoted to Ozeki after a 12-3 jun-yusho. Straight to Ozeki W, leapfrogging over both Chiyotaikai (8-7) and Takanonami(7-8). EXACTLY the same case now with Goueidou (8-7) and Kotoshougiku(7-8) except that Terunofuji had a 12-3 Yusho..

Free tip for all you GTB players out there..

Edited May 25, 2015 by Kintamayama

[Asashosakari 18,968]

Day 15 (results, text-only results):

11-4 Hakuho Y1 Harumafuji 11-4

kyujo Kakuryu Y2

11-4 Kisenosato O1 Kotoshogiku 6-9

O2 Goeido 8-6-1

12-3 Terunofuji S

Shame about the lack of a playoff, but it's hard to claim the basho wasn't exciting anyway. :-) As amply detailed already it appears Terunofuji has secured promotion to ozeki with his yusho, arguably the second surprise promotion in a row - around Day 12 of the respective tournaments neither Goeido nor Terunofuji looked to be in much of a promotion race.

All four maegashira who entered the day at 10-4 lost their final bout, so the lower sanyaku situation ended up looking very clear at least on that front. All other contenders were successful on senshuraku, and while the ozeki promotion is making available another slot, we're indeed still looking at 5 credible candidates for 4 openings. I'm actually partial to the "balanced banzuke" notion, and as I don't see any particular reason to upset the apple cart by short-changing either Myogiryu or Tochinoshin, my personal guess will (probably...) be for three komusubi and 12 sanyaku in total. The current committee has shown a willingness to be unorthodox though, so it's not exactly written in stone.

S Myogiryu 7-8 (?)

(o) 8-7 Tochiozan K Ichinojo 8-7 (o)

(o) 9-6 Takarafuji M1 Tochinoshin 9-6 (?)

M2

8-7 Sadanoumi M3

M4

M5

M6 Aoiyama 9-6

M7

M8 Takayasu 10-5

M9

10-5 Ikioi M10

The makuuchi<->juryo movements also appear to be quite straight-forward after all - Seiro and Chiyotairyu grabbed their last needed win, and Kagamio won the yusho decider against Hidenoumi to finish with a credible record as well.

4 exchanges are entirely obvious, namely Tokitenku/Hidenoumi/Chiyotairyu/Seiro for Arawashi/Fujiazuma/Chiyomaru/Jokoryu. Sokokurai/Takanoiwa on the maegashira side and Satoyama/Kagamio in juryo are all a bit borderline if looked at individually, but all four taken together should be resulting in two further exchanges being made. The sanyaku expansion is probably irrelevant after all: Takanoiwa's 7-8 from the second-lowest slot is normally a demotion anyway when there are possible (re-)promotees at J4e 9-6 or J9e 12-3.

(x)1-4-10 Sokokurai M7

...

(x) 2-13 Arawashi M12 Toyohibiki 6-9 (o)

(x) 3-12 Fujiazuma M13 Chiyomaru 3-12 (x)

M14

(x) 5-10 Jokoryu M15

(x) 7-8 Takanoiwa M16

(o) 10-5 Tokitenku J1 Seiro 8-7 (o)

J2 Chiyotairyu 9-6 (o)

(x) 7-8 Asasekiryu J3

(o) 9-6 Satoyama J4

(o) 11-4 Hidenoumi J5

J6

10-5 Daieisho J7

J8

(o) 12-3 Kagamio J9

Oddly enough the juryo<->makushita situation also saw just about the perfect bout outcomes on senshuraku to facilitate easy (or at least easier) banzuke-making. Abiko lost to Wakanoshima, taking himself out of the promotion race, while Sakigake beat Daishomaru to open up a 3rd slot and defuse the Mitakeumi/Tokushinho confusion over slot #2. (Mitakeumi for his part won on Day 15 for another strong 6-1 record.) Akiseyama lost the would-be demotion playoff against Wakanosato and is on the bubble, but I suspect the final scenario looks "normal" enough (unlike Natsu two years ago) that they'll do the paint-by-numbers approach and keep Akiseyama in juryo and Shodai in makushita.

Shodai did have the personal opportunity against Akiseyama on Day 14 and blew it, and while I'm normally not a believer in individual bout results influencing promotions and demotions, I suspect this one didn't exactly help his cause.

J11 Akiseyama 6-9 (?)

(x) 4-11 Dewahayate J12 Daishomaru 6-9 (x)

J13

(o) 8-7 Wakanoshima J14 Tosayutaka 7-8 (x)

Ms1 Tokushinho 4-3 (o)

Ms2 Shodai 4-3 (?)

(o) 6-1 Mitakeumi Ms3 Abiko 4-3

4-3 Sakigake Ms4 Kizenryu 4-3

Ms5

...

(o) 7-0 Takagi Ms10

Edited May 25, 2015 by Asashosakari

[HenryK 38]

Is it reasonable to expect the following banzuke:

Kisenosato O Terunofuji

Goeido O Kotoshogiku

Tochiozan S Ichinojo

Takarafuji K Tochinoshin

Miogiryu M1 Sadanoumi

Aoiyama M2 Takayasu

Ikioi M3 Kaisei

I didn't know that the three Yokozunas are Intai ! Congratulations to Kisenosato at the top of the next banzuke ;)

I don't think that Terunofuji will be O1W.... and I don't believe that Aoiyama will be M2E

There was no point in stating the obvious so I just skipped them as they are not going anywhere right now. I wonder if you don't see yusho winning Teru at O1W, which of Goeido and Giku you consider more worthy of being O1W. Both are one of the most miserable Ozeki in history, have not won a single yusho and have not won more than 9 in a year or so. As for Aoiyama, not that I am impartial but in my books 9-6 from M6W is kind of more than 10-5 from M8W...apart from Takayasu I see nobody else really worthy of being M2E.

Newly promoted Ozeki have to get in line. O2W for Terunofuji.

In the same basho we had 3 Komusubis (Natsu 2000), Musouyama was promoted to Ozeki after a 12-3 jun-yusho. Straight to Ozeki W, leapfrogging over both Chiyotaikai (8-7) and Takanonami(7-8). EXACTLY the same case now with Goueidou (8-7) and Kotoshougiku(7-8) except that Terunofuji had a 12-3 Yusho..

Free tip for all you GTB players out there..

It seems 15 years ago they did this sometimes, but the last 13 Ozeki promotees were all placed at as the bottom of the Ozeki pool. Including, say, Ama/Harumafuji in Hatsu 2009, even though Kaio was kadoban. Or Kotoshogiku in Kyushu 2011, even though Kotooshu was kadoban - they even moved makekoshi Kotooshu up from O2W to O2E. So I doubt it will be any different with Terunofuji.

The difference of the O- with the K-situation is that there is no recent precedent. In the past 22 years, all S1W with a 7-8 record all ended up at K. Most at K1, in the late 1990s a few at K2. One has to go back to 1992 - 23 years - to find an S1W with 7-8 at M in the next basho. But one also has to go back to 1974 - 41 years - to find a 9-6 M1W who did not make it to sanyaku.

Based on this Myogiryu and Tochinoshin both have good reasons to be hopeful, but let's see. I have no good sense what will happen, but hope to get three Ks.

Edited May 25, 2015 by HenryK

[Asashosakari 18,968]

Terunofuji's promotion is surprising as Rijicho Kitanoumi clearly stated berforehand that a Yusho at 14-1 is required. But it is totally okay to change his mind. We might remember this when he states something in the future.

The pre-basho comments rarely have anything to do with what they decide when the results are in, this isn't exactly the first (or second, or third...) time it has happened.

[Gurowake 4,016]

Goeido's situation was somewhat similar; I don't think he was given any target for promotion, and I found it a complete surprise that it was decided on the last day that if he won his match against the Yusho-contender Kotoshogiku, he would be promoted. Everyone had assumed it was hopeless after his third loss.

[shimodahito 304]

so you think chiyootori is safe from demotion to juryo? I think he and sokokurai will drop.

Edited May 25, 2015 by shimodahito

[ronnie 221]

What about Myogiryu as a third Sekiwake?

[bettega 431]

so you think chiyootori is safe from demotion to juryo? I think he and sokokurai will drop.

Too much demotables, some of them will get lucky

[Shikona 139]

I for my part would like to see three Komusubi; Myogiryu, Takarafuji and Tochinoshin all deserve a sanyaku slot.

For the more versed here, wouldn't the fact that there are three Yokozuna now but four Ozeki (and two Sekiwake) give the Kyokai an argument to balance the banzuke with a K2W?

I don't think balance has anything to do with it. If the two M1s had 10-5s, I would think it possible. But 9-6? I highly doubt it. Either Myougiryuu gets demoted to M1, or only Takarafuji gets the nod. Also, that example was not so good, as it was the basho after Takatouriki got his 13-2 yusho from M14. He was the third Komusubi.

Obviously a different situation, no pressing joi promotables for one thing, which actually makes it kind of odd that they felt the need to do it. Takatouriki is also not a good example--Kyokutenho got a 12-3 yusho from M7 and only went to M1. Times have probably changed. I would say they are stingier these days, except that there has been some leniency toward getting to Ozeki.

[WAKATAKE 2,644]

What about Myogiryu as a third Sekiwake?

I can`t see this as likely given that both komusubi ended up going kachikoshi. If one or both of them had gone makekoshi he may have had a chance, but the fact is they both went 8-7 which I do not remember seeing often. I think he will be either the K1E or K1W next basho.

[Jakusotsu 5,874]

What about Myogiryu as a third Sekiwake?

What about Myogiryu as M1?