Natsu 2015 Basho Talk (spoiler alert!)

[CT3* 331]

Was in the stadium today...and personally witnessing Harumafuji not giving a damn for the second day in a row makes me wonder when they will start demanding his head...if only to stop all the money they are paying out in ridiculous, needless kinboshi.

Seems like Harumafuji lost his mojo/concentration after the matta.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Not sure what you are meaning with "super-super-slowmo". I saw everything in the first view of the bout ...

Then you've got all the qualifications needed to be a better shimpan than them, I guess. ;-) It's less than five real-time video frames from the moment Jokoryu's foot must have left the ground to the moment Fujiazuma's elbow hits it, and in both the stream version and in Kinta's video (which is presumably from the NHK broadcast), Jokoryu's foot is obscured by Fujiazuma's body from the presumptive moment it lost contact to the ground, so it's impossible to actually see it go off from those camera angles. It may have looked different in real time and at real speed (and with a brain extrapolating based on known patterns), but as far as I can tell the video doesn't actually show what you assume it showed.

Of course we do know your assumption was correct, so maybe the gyoji or a shimpan with a better viewing angle should have caught it, but I don't think it's a clear-cut case at all.

Edited May 19, 2015 by Asashosakari

[ALAKTORN 346]

What was Aoiyama thinking going for the belt?

Harumafuji tried a retreating maneuver but jumped a bit too far, landing outside the dohyō. He lost to himself.

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

Not sure what you are meaning with "super-super-slowmo". I saw everything in the first view of the bout ...

Then you've got all the qualifications needed to be a better shimpan than them, I guess. ;-) It's less than five real-time video frames from the moment Jokoryu's foot must have left the ground to the moment Fujiazuma's elbow hits it, and in both the stream version and in Kinta's video (which is presumably from the NHK broadcast), Jokoryu's foot is obscured by Fujiazuma's body from the presumptive moment it lost contact to the ground, so it's impossible to actually see it go off from those camera angles. It may have looked different in real time and at real speed (and with a brain extrapolating based on known patterns), but as far as I can tell the video doesn't actually show what you assume it showed.

Of course we do know your assumption was correct, so maybe the gyoji or a shimpan with a better viewing angle should have caught it, but I don't think it's a clear-cut case at all.

I agree, the replay just confirmed what I saw. And of course it could have shown me surprising details which I missed from the initial angle and speed, happens often enough. My point is, at least a few shinpan must have seen the same I saw, and it's weird no mono-ii was called here.

[Gurowake 3,922]

I was very surprised at the complete lack of mono-ii in the Jokoryu fight. I thought the elbow down first was a stupid way of determining the winner as it was more likely that they were both attempting to break their fall. If I had to declare a winner, I'd have said Fujiazuma even after the replay, but my preference would have been for a torinaoshi as Jokoryu was at least somewhat successful in his counter-attack.

--

Aoiyama going for the belt and losing again. Old news. I hate to be someone that talks about people throwing matches, but every time he doesn't try to maintain separation I feel he's intentionally trying not to win. How can he not have figured out by now that going for the belt is going to be a loss for him? Maybe if he was against another oshi specialist it would be reasonable, but even then I think he's pretty much the best in the sport at it (when he decides to actually use it).

--

Harumafuji going straight at Gagamaru was just plain wrong in light of that matta and how Gagamaru tends to offer his fists to the ground. While the Yokozuna can often win due to sheer speed with a huge jump at the tachi-ai, Gagamaru was clearly not going to let him have his say in how the match started. It's some thing I've noticed a lot about Harumafuji - he tries to start just slightly before the opponent is actually ready to start, such that the opponent actually has committed to starting by the time he's able to react to the Yokozuna and isn't able to draw the matta. Gagamaru is so slow in putting his fists down and actually starting that it just doesn't work. I think more guys would have success if they tried to break Harumasuji's tachiai timing, but there may be a cultural thing inherent in being the first one to have the fists down when you're lower ranked (although I'm completely making that up and have no clue if it's true).

[dingo 1,160]

but there may be a cultural thing inherent in being the first one to have the fists down when you're lower ranked (although I'm completely making that up and have no clue if it's true).

I have definitely noticed that with Hakuho's opponents, especially ones from Maegashira ranks. So although I don't claim much knowledge about the insides of the sumo world, knowing that it's highly hierarchical and knowing the overall workings of the Japanese society I would suspect you're right.

[Randomitsuki 2,768]

Kinboshi for rikishi at M6 or lower are relatively rare (only seven times in the 2000s).

Some of those kinboshi were won by rikishi who later became Ozeki (Kotomitsuki in 2000, Ama in 2006; Ichinojo who got such a kinboshi in 2014 will also probably be Ozeki one day).

If we assume that Ichinojo will be Ozeki one day, and also assume that Gagamaru will never become Ozeki (though there is a different theory around...), then Gagamaru's kinboshi against Harumafuji was the biggest upset in almost ten years when Kokkai defeated Asashoryu.

Nagoya 2005, Kokkai vs. Asashoryu:

[Asashosakari 18,786]

... then Gagamaru's kinboshi against Harumafuji was the biggest upset in almost ten years when Kokkai defeated Asashoryu.

Setting back Georgian-Mongolian relations by another decade, most likely. ;-)

[Senkoho 552]

As for the Fujiazuma-Jokoryu bout: I ttought Fujiazuma might have lost because he touched the dohyo with the top of his toe. You can see it quite clearly at 1:03 in Kintamayama's video.

Edited May 19, 2015 by Senkoho

[Taigiin khuu 42]

Was in the stadium today...and personally witnessing Harumafuji not giving a damn for the second day in a row makes me wonder when they will start demanding his head...if only to stop all the money they are paying out in ridiculous, needless kinboshi.

I'm not sure about today's bout, but I watched the live feed for the loss against Tamawashi, and Harumafuji was distraught at that loss. The camera stayed on him for a while and he repeatedly shook his head in disappointment; it was clear that the loss was a huge deal to him.

I think he is just trying too hard, and given his reliance on speed, the margin of error for him is small. But I hope he has a Yusho or two left, which hopefully come before Terunofuji starts being in contention regularly.

Edited May 19, 2015 by Taigiin khuu

[Gurowake 3,922]

The database is currently inaccessible so I don't know when it occurred nor more details of Shotenro's career, but I'd think Hakuho-Shotenro was a much bigger upset.

[Yubinhaad 11,546]

There are now 28 active rikishi who have won kinboshi, with a total of 50 kinboshi between them. The last time we saw 28 active winners was the 2002 Aki basho, but that had more than double the number of kinboshi in circulation, so to speak. The retirements of Takatoriki (9), Terao (7) and Minatofuji (3) saw the total drop from 111 to 93 after that basho.

The numbers continued to dwindle as major winners retired and Hakuho gave up so few. Even with Harumafuji's generosity it will be a long time yet before we reach those heights of kinboshi again, particularly since the likes of Aminishiki (7), Wakanosato and Kyokutenho (2 each) are at the tail-end of their careers.

If anyone's interested, here is the list of kinboshi in circulation as of 2002 Aki:

Akinoshima - 16

Tosanoumi - 10

Takatoriki - 9

Tochinonada - 8

Tamakasuga - 7

Terao - 7

Kotonowaka - 6

Kaio - 6

Dejima - 4

Tochiazuma - 4

Kyokushuzan - 4

Kotoryu - 3

Kotomitsuki - 3

Chiyotenzan - 3

Minatofuji - 3

Daizen - 2

Oginishiki - 2

Musoyama - 2

Higonoumi - 2

Aogiyama - 2

Chiyotaikai - 1

Takanowaka - 1

Kaiho - 1

Shimotori - 1

Wakanosato - 1

Kyokutenho - 1

Takanohana - 1

Asashoryu - 1

The database is currently inaccessible so I don't know when it occurred nor more details of Shotenro's career, but I'd think Hakuho-Shotenro was a much bigger upset.

2009 Aki, Day 6.

Edited May 19, 2015 by Yubinhaad

[ALAKTORN 346]

^In that list, what about Hakuhō’s 1 kinboshi?

[Tenshinhan 1,599]

^In that list, what about Hakuhō’s 1 kinboshi?

The list shows the kinboshi of the rikishi who were on the Aki 2002 Makuuchi Banzuke and Hakuho earned his kinboshi in Fukuoka 2004.

[Kintamayama 44,354]

Kakuryuu is doing just fine as a Yokozuna. Most of you can't remember how well yokozunae do when the field is more even and not when there is a totally dominant one. Except for 9 wins in his first bashos as a yokozuna, he has won 11,11,12 and 10 before getting injured. Those are average (before the phenom) records-compare these to other Yokozunae and it's pretty good.

I did try that comparison.

Kakuryu is new, so we've just got one year as a Yokozuna. How does that compare to the first year of other Yokozuna?

Kakuryu only once achieved 12 or more wins during that year -- which I think is pretty much the marker for contending for yusho. Harumafuji also did it just once in his first six basho as Yokozuna.

If I've counted right, of the 20 previous Yokozuna (#50 - #69) only one other -- Kotozakura -- only once reached 12 wins in his first year. For those 20 previous, the average is 3.4 times during the first year. However you slice and dice it, it looks the same: split those 20 Yokozuna into an older half and a more recent half, the averages are 3.5 times and 3.3 times respectively. Take out all the Yokozuna with more than ten yusho, the average for the rest is 2.8 times. Promoted in the 1970s: 3.3 times; in the 1980s: 3.0 times; in the 1990s: 3.7 times.

Exactly. When the field is even, they got more wins. I figure at present with the field uneven, they each get an almost certain one more loss, which in an uneven field, would make for at least 1 or two more 12 win bashos.

Does that make sense?

[Kintamayama 44,354]

<quote>-I think more guys would have success if they tried to break Harumasuji's tachiai timing, but there may be a cultural thing inherent in being the first one to have the fists down when you're lower ranked (although I'm completely making that up and have no clue if it's true).</quote>

Maybe I'm wrong since it's been a while, but I think Kakuryuu has his fists down firmly and first most of the time. Harumafuji does not. I'm not sure another head shinpan would have called the matta. In the rematch, it's not that different. It was ex-Musouyama who called it. I think someone decided to to let Harumafuji know that his non-tachiai is being noticed.

Edited May 19, 2015 by Kintamayama

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

The database is currently inaccessible so I don't know when it occurred nor more details of Shotenro's career, but I'd think Hakuho-Shotenro was a much bigger upset.

Shotenro was M2e at that time.

[krindel 671]

The database is currently inaccessible so I don't know when it occurred nor more details of Shotenro's career, but I'd think Hakuho-Shotenro was a much bigger upset.

Shotenro was M2e at that time.

True, but it was Hakuho, not Harumafuji and Shotenro (who was in his career high rank and his first and only time in the jo'i) ended up that basho at 2-13 (so basically he lost to more or less everyone but Hak). Numbers aside, I do remember that one as "truly shocking" as well.

Edit (to avoid a double post really...):

I'll be the first to admit I know very little about bout scheduling. Still, I'd really appreciate it if someone could explain to me why the 7-2 Takayasu and the 8-1 yusho leader Kaisei were paired with Kyokushuho + Amuru and Amuru + Takanoiwa respectively. In both cases, it was the lowest ranked opponents they faced so far. I know they tend to give high flying maegashira a chance at KK before throwing them to the wolves, but couldn't they just make them earn their KK against someone ranked a bit higher than them, instead of a lot lower?

Edited May 20, 2015 by krindel

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

I'll be the first to admit I know very little about bout scheduling. Still, I'd really appreciate it if someone could explain to me why the 7-2 Takayasu and the 8-1 yusho leader Kaisei were paired with Kyokushuho + Amuru and Amuru + Takanoiwa respectively. In both cases, it was the lowest ranked opponents they faced so far. I know they tend to give high flying maegashira a chance at KK before throwing them to the wolves, but couldn't they just make them earn their KK against someone ranked a bit higher than them, instead of a lot lower?

Tell me, what's wrong with Takayasu (7-1) vs. Kyokushuho (7-1) and Takayasu (7-2) vs. Amuru (7-2)? Kaisei(7-1) vs. Amuru (6-2) also is perfectly acceptable at the time of scheduling.

I give you Kaisei-Takanoiwa, that one is a bit puzzling as Kaisei already was kachi-koshi and Takanoiwa only 5-4 at the time of scheduling. He could have faced Gagamaru (but just 3-6) or Aoiyama (scheduled against Kotoshogiku, probably they didn't want to break the sanyaku scheduling, and he faces Aoiyama tomorrow anyway). In fact, no less than four of Kaisei's past opponents already are kachi-koshi as well which is everybody below Sekiwake except same-heya Kyokushuho. So it's just not easy I guess.

Edit: I guess you aren't realizing that torikumi are set up and published *before* the bouts of the day. It's just unfair from you to characterize Kaisei as "8-1 yusho leader" as he was 7-1.

Edited May 20, 2015 by Doitsuyama

[krindel 671]

I'll be the first to admit I know very little about bout scheduling. Still, I'd really appreciate it if someone could explain to me why the 7-2 Takayasu and the 8-1 yusho leader Kaisei were paired with Kyokushuho + Amuru and Amuru + Takanoiwa respectively. In both cases, it was the lowest ranked opponents they faced so far. I know they tend to give high flying maegashira a chance at KK before throwing them to the wolves, but couldn't they just make them earn their KK against someone ranked a bit higher than them, instead of a lot lower?

Tell me, what's wrong with Takayasu (7-1) vs. Kyokushuho (7-1) and Takayasu (7-2) vs. Amuru (7-2)? Kaisei(7-1) vs. Amuru (6-2) also is perfectly acceptable at the time of scheduling.

I give you Kaisei-Takanoiwa, that one is a bit puzzling as Kaisei already was kachi-koshi and Takanoiwa only 5-4 at the time of scheduling. He could have faced Gagamaru (but just 3-6) or Aoiyama (scheduled against Kotoshogiku, probably they didn't want to break the sanyaku scheduling, and he faces Aoiyama tomorrow anyway). In fact, no less than four of Kaisei's past opponents already are kachi-koshi as well which is everybody below Sekiwake except same-heya Kyokushuho. So it's just not easy I guess.

Edit: I guess you aren't realizing that torikumi are set up and published *before* the bouts of the day. It's just unfair from you to characterize Kaisei as "8-1 yusho leader" as he was 7-1.

First of all, I was not attacking the torikumi makers, I was asking for an explanation on a subject I know little about, so thank you for the clarification. I guess it does make sense in some way. I know its a heck of a lot harder than it seems to make proper torikumi decisions, and I do appreciate an insight to their thought process.

Incidentally I do realize that the torikumi are set up before the bouts of the day, the 7-2 and 8-1 scores I was mentioning referred to the choice of their last oponent. So Kaisei was 8-1 (and co-yusho leader) when he was paired with Takanoiwa, and Takayasu who was 7-2 when paired with Amuru (although I admit that I hadn't noticed Amuru was also 7-2 at the time).

I guess what I am trying to convey is that in my (admittedly unpracticed) eye Kaisei has been allowed to get to double digit wins with what seems like a relatively light schedule. Not to mention that while Takayasu is going all the way up to a desperate Ozeki for tomorrow, Kaisei is going against Aoiyama. But, as you say, I am sure there are good reasons behind all that.

[bettega 427]

Aoiyama (ex-Sekiwake), trying for his KK, is everything but an easy or less trying oponent to Kaisei tomorrow :)

[CT3* 331]

Good day of sumo!

Much respect to Aminishiki for going straight at Ichinojo. I wouldn't have been surprised if he'd opted for a henka or a pull, but Aminishiki did his best Harumafuji impression an opted for the nodo-wa. It didn't work, but I like the effort!

Nice footwork from Sadanoumi on the edge as he pulled off the uwatenage win.

Myougiryuu withstood some serious slaps from Tamawashi, but stayed focused and got the win.

No tsuppari today from Aoiyama, but he didn't need it as Kotoshogiku again flirts with going kadoban.

No way was Hakuho going to lose to Terunofuji two basho in a row. No way.

Any doubt that Endou gets another win and stays in makuuchi? I also hope Amuuru gets his kachikoshi; not sure if he'll get it tomorrow against Okinoumi though. Too bad Osunaraashi is out of the tournament. After his strong start, it would have been interesting to see how he fared in the second half of the basho.

Looking forward to the Day 12 matchups of Kaisei/Aoiyama, Takayasu/Kotoshogiku and especially Kisenosato/Terunofuji. I also have a funny feeling about the Hakuho/Goeido bout..

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

I guess what I am trying to convey is that in my (admittedly unpracticed) eye Kaisei has been allowed to get to double digit wins with what seems like a relatively light schedule. Not to mention that while Takayasu is going all the way up to a desperate Ozeki for tomorrow, Kaisei is going against Aoiyama. But, as you say, I am sure there are good reasons behind all that.

Yes, Takanoiwa wasn't the hardest possible opponent. But, light schedule? As I wrote, he already faced all the leaders below sekiwake. And I would have been actually a bit surprised if Kaisei would be facing an ozeki tomorrow instead of Takayasu, three ranks from M8 to M11 is a big difference.

[Mongolith 51]

Damn Aoi just railroaded my boy Geeku. Three wins will be tough now. Fuji is gonna have to wait his turn as when Hak turns on his jets he is as impressive as ever. Was a freight train once his main competitors slipped and now bodied up nicely taking complete control of fuji before tossing him.

[Tenshinhan 1,599]

Damn Aoi just railroaded my boy Geeku. Three wins will be tough now.

That didn't look like Aoiyama indeed. Giku is nearly kadoban: He has Hakuho, Harumafuji and Kisenosato left on the last three days and has to beat two of them.