Which yokozuna/ozeki will be the last one standing?

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Prompted by a post in the general basho thread, a quick poll: With the current six top-rankers all roughly part of the same generation (it's less than two and a half years from oldest to youngest), which one of them do you expect to last the longest? This is only about being ranked as yokozuna or ozeki, without considering a Takanonami/Miyabiyama-style career extension should any of the ozeki decide to keep going after demotion.

Edited March 20, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Kintamayama 44,354]

Kakuryuu.

[chishafuwaku 469]

Go for Hakuho because he will extend the record of basho wins to a number impossible to achieve in this century (Flying a plane...)

chishafuwaku

[Tenshinhan 1,599]

Kisenosato. He is the youngest and he might become a Yokozuna after Hakuho intai. :-)

[krindel 671]

I'll go with Kakuryu, although we'll need to see how his recent injury develops.

When it comes to longevity, being a Yokozuna is a big advantage over the Ozeki, with the cushion it provides against missing a basho, and I think Kakuryu might be the most motivated of the three Yokozuna to prolong his career as much as possible.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

I've gone for Kisenosato, and that's even without considering a possible step up to yokozuna for him. He's young enough, has a style that shouldn't be too injury-prone in the future, and he's far enough above the "ozeki baseline" that he ought to be able to weather quite a bit of decline (like Kaio and Chiyotaikai) before he's moving into the danger zone. By contrast Kotoshogiku's already too broken down IMHO and Goeido just isn't good enough to survive even a slight bit of deterioration.

Kakuryu is a bit of a wildcard for me. Still, sitting out tournaments to recuperate is only of benefit as long you're still good enough for your rank at full strength, and IMHO Kakuryu will stop being that (for a yokozuna) earlier than Kise does (for an ozeki).

Edited March 21, 2015 by Asashosakari

[Mongolith 51]

I went for Kise also as I can't even remember him missing a basho and he should be good enough to at least make kk in a consistent manner. Hak seems to getting tired of the dog and pony show & appears to be lashing out. Likely feels underappreciated and unloved by the general public which is what I took from his prior comments.

[Tsubame 356]

Kakuryu, because Hakuho will quit after his 36th yusho, Harumafuji will crumble under the pressure and the three ozekis are meh... :/

[Benevolance 2,478]

If Kakuryu were still an ozeki, he'd be my pick. But the expectations on a yok are different, and he can't simply cruise on indefinitely with mediocre results. Kise has game to spare at ozeki, but I don't think he'll ever make that final push to yokozuna, leaving him a long, Kaoi-esque career ahead of him.

At the other end of the spectrum, I'll bet Goeidou drops before Hak retires, but I think the geek will be the first to depart.

[shumitto 418]

Kisenosato.

I see Goeido and Kakuryu at a stable level, while all the others, possibly including Kisenosato (since mid-2014) past their prime. I would pick neither though, as they have barely made to their ranks, and although Kakuryu can save his energies well, he never looked very confortable at this height. Kotoshogiku is starting to live on borrowed time, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is the first the to depart, unless off course Harumafuji beats him in that race.

Picking Kisenosato over Hakuho is a close call, but I believe, just like Asashosakari, that Hakuho runs out of gas before Kisenosato does. These two are also the only ones from these 6 who can afford to have their skills eroded and still be good enough to hold their ranks for some time.

[Vikanohara 171]

Apparently I'm the only one to have picked Goeido. My reason for picking him, is that I see him gradually getting more comfortable at the rank of Ozeki. I think Kotoshogiku will be the first to drop away, followed by Kakuryu to intai. Next, Hakuho will call it quits, Kisenosato will finally become a Yokozuna, but not a long lived one, as by that time Terunofuji & Ichinojo will be making the jump as well. Around the same time, Harumafuji will leave the stage, while all this time Goeido will remain an Ozeki, accompanied by Tochiozan, Myogiryu & Osunaarashi. Let's find out in about 4 years. :)

[WAKATAKE 2,631]

I was going to pick Kakuryu, but after reading some of these posts, I've gone with Kisenosato. He has been kadoban once but he has been mostly consistent with maintaining his rank, being competitive for the yusho from time to time, and has been injury free. As of this basho he has wrestled 945 matches straight in the makuuchi and so far I have not seen him get any serious injuries. Kise may have his off days but overall I feel that he is probably going to outlast everybody in the top 6 right now.

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

I'm quite amazed how many people still underestimate Kakuryu. I've never been a big fan (sorry, Fay B-) ), but I see no reason why he shouldn't comfortably remain yokozuna for years to come.

[ScreechingOwl 343]

I'll cast my lot with Kisenosato. He's the youngest of the six and the only ozeki who shows no strain in holding the rank (Kotoshogiku has been kadoban 4 times and Goiedo in 4 basho has already been kadoban 1 time and has never won more than 8 victories. Kisenosato has the right build to be able to stay at ozeki for awhile even when his power starts to decline (a la Kaio). Of course should Kisenosato be promoted to yokozuna, now seemingly unlikely but not impossible, that would throw a spanner in the works as his tenure there would probably be relatively short-lived.

[Andonishiki 168]

Kakuryu

my chrystal ball foresees all three Ozeki demoted at one point in 2015/16/17, cause they just lack strength or cleverness.
Hakuho will retire in 2016 or 2017 as he had enough and Teru & Ijo will give him a hard time.
Harumafuji has reached his summit already 2-3 yrs ago and injuries will force him to intai.

.

In Hatsu 2017, the banzuke will be

Y1e Terunofuji
Y1w Ichinojou
Ye2 Kakuryu

Oe Aoiyama
Ow Endo

Se Kisenosato
Sw Tochiozan

Ke Osunaarashi
Kw Takayasu

[Jakusotsu 5,815]

Aoiyama and Endo? Seriously?? And 1860 Munich will be champion? :-P

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Must admit I also struggle to imagine a world where 30-year-old Aoiyama will be ozeki and 30-year-old Kisenosato won't.

[Unkonoyama 104]

Maybe it is silly and I'm being super optimistic about his potential, but I voted for Goeido. I had a hard time choosing between him and Kakuryu. I just feel like Goeido still has health and youth on his side (he is only a few months older than Kisenosato) and will grow more and more comfortable in the ozeki role with each tournament. This past basho was his first in Osaka as an ozeki, and I thought he was thinking too much and trying too hard to impress his home venue. Hopefully it was a big learning experience for him and we will see double-digit wins from him going forward.

[bettega 427]

Kisenosato stays as Ozeki à la Kaio. Forever and ever and ever. But withouth any yusho.

Edited April 7, 2015 by bettega

[Andreas21 182]

I voted for Hakuho. Sure, he talked about intai already but if it comes to it he won't until injuries force him to. But the way he fights, he has a good chance to keep clean of injuries. As long as he is the best he will not retire, and even Terunofuji may not change this in the near future.

But also Kisenosato and Kakuryu may have a long career, it's not possible to tell between the three.

Harumafuji is the oldest, and relies so much on speed and special effort, that he may run out of steam in a few years.

Kotoshogiku is already on the brink of demotion, will be the first to retire, as his knee injury is so serious.

Goeido will continue to struggle to maintain the rank, but may continue to do so quite a while.

[Mmikasazuma 12]

From this group I like Harumafuji the most, but can't hope he would last the longest.

I also give it to Kisenosato.

[egparis18 622]

Kise's never been kyujo, at least as far as I know (I'm too lazy to look it up). He doesn't have any unhealed injuries, I think. He fights clever.

[kuroimori 1,634]

Coin toss between Kis & Kak, with a slight edge towards

Kisenosato!

[SumpaX 23]

Kakuryu

my chrystal ball foresees all three Ozeki demoted at one point in 2015/16/17, cause they just lack strength or cleverness.

Hakuho will retire in 2016 or 2017 as he had enough and Teru & Ijo will give him a hard time.

Harumafuji has reached his summit already 2-3 yrs ago and injuries will force him to intai.

.

I feel like even 2017 is too early for hakuho to retire... yes injuries are hard to foresee, but even injured he still fights like a good ozeki... I don't think its a stretch that he will stay till 2020. I also think Harumafuji will go stay at least till 2018 .. he still got it, and the support of his fellow stable mates made a huge difference in the recent bashos, if he stays injurie free... why blow it?

[Tsubame 356]

Kise's never been kyujo, at least as far as I know (I'm too lazy to look it up). He doesn't have any unhealed injuries, I think. He fights clever.

Last day of Hatsu 2014 was the only kyujo-day in Kisenasatos career.