Asameshimae 220 Posted December 13, 2014 (edited) How about doing this game for the number of retirees for each basho in 2015? I doubt it is as random, but that could make it more fun. I mean in the GTB game you always know who is going to be yokozuna and ozeki right? I'd post such a game here, but crunching numbers does not trip my trigger as it does many of the posters above. Edited December 13, 2014 by Asameshimae Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jakusotsu 6,403 Posted December 15, 2014 If my stochastical skills are still working after 25 years, we need 48 players to have a 50% chance for duplicate entries. This problem, is not like this http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem ? If so, we have p >...% nº players 10 13 20 19 30 24 40 28 50 32 60 37 70 42 80 49 90 58 These results are not very intuitive (Blinking...) You're right with that table. I apologize for messing up with calculating the approximation formula in Excel. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andonishiki 171 Posted December 15, 2014 624153 basic theory- Tokyo is the capital and Kokugikan is "the Temple" of Sumo, so less fusensho there compared to the "outskirts"- more injuries at the end of the year and also more at colder times.Predictions for absolute numbers of fusensho MU/JHatsu: 7, Osaka: 8; Natsu: 5; Nagoya: 9; Aki: 6; Kyushu: 11 -> Total 46 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted December 15, 2014 624153 Hatsu: 7, Osaka: 8; Natsu: 5; Nagoya: 9; Aki: 6; Kyushu: 11 -> Total 46 I guess you want to say 642153 (Whatever above, it is funny...) As is still free, of course, you can change your choice... chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Gernobono 467 Posted December 15, 2014 - more injuries at the end of the year interesting.....don't want to say it is wrong, but why should that be?.....there is nothing like a "sumo-season"....always 2 months break.....not like in golf where competition basically rests over christmas and newyearseve Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Heikotoriki 3 Posted December 15, 2014 654321 Heikotoriki 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andonishiki 171 Posted December 16, 2014 chisha is right, as so often recently, but I stick to my pick @ gernot: true, the break bween basho is about the same, but rikishi do celebrate oshogatsu, some might travel back to their families for a few days... so in their daily routines, I think there's some seasonality... Does anyone have the stats in hand for fusensho over the last three years, basho by basho ? Did any rikishi in the past years got two fusensho in one basho ? or even three ?? what happens if there were sponsor banners for a bout that gets cancelled ? money goes to the chanko foundation ? or into baseball bets by the rijicho OB club ? or into the torikumistis sake pot ? so many questions, so much traffic. stuck in the rush hour bus to work, sunny 28 degrees, lah Alohanishiki Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Tenshinhan 1,612 Posted December 18, 2014 Did any rikishi in the past years got two fusensho in one basho ? Kotoshogiku got two fusensho in Hatsu 2014 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted January 2, 2015 (edited) My turn 654213 There are not more interested in playing? chishafuwaku Edited January 2, 2015 by chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,498 Posted January 3, 2015 654321 Heikotoriki You are now officially my rival for this game! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted January 5, 2015 (edited) Does anyone have the stats in hand for fusensho over the last three years, basho by basho ? 201411 8 201409 6 201407 5 201405 5 201403 5 201401 4 201311 5 201309 5 201307 5 201305 2 201303 4 201301 2 201211 6 201209 6 201207 4 201205 2 201203 4 201201 3 There seems to be a tendency... ;-) Jejima, you are in the driving seat to be last :-P chishafuwaku Edited January 5, 2015 by chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Terarno 47 Posted January 5, 2015 Hi ! 165423 Thanks. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted January 7, 2015 Only one more to reach 20 entries. Who will be the lucky? chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kotoviki 16 Posted January 10, 2015 I'm in! 463251 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted January 10, 2015 I'm in! 463251 You past the deadline. However, as there are no known sekitoris that go missing on the first day, I will accept your entry. Opening this exception will be fair also accept all who wish to participate until the moment the Kyokai announce some last minute kyujo sekitori for the first day. chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kotoviki 16 Posted January 11, 2015 Thank you! I didn't even realize the deadline! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted February 27, 2015 (edited) Fusen Hatsu (January) results: Division Fusen Makuuchi 4 Juryo 0 Makushita 0 Sandanme 1 Jonidan 4 Jonokuchi 2 Mae-zumo 0 So, for our game, the result that counts is 4 (Makuuchi and Juryo). Therefore we can already predict what will happen after Haru (March) Basho.Some advantage for the group who predicted more fusen between Hatsu and Haru or vice-versa. Bet Hatsu > Haru Haru < Hatsu 123456 Jejima 165423 Terarno 241356 Jakusotsu 243615 kuroimori 325641 Mmikasazuma 351624 Tsukiko 413652 Asameshimae 421536 teo_heel 425316 Ganzohnesushi 462315 Tsubame 463251 Kotoviki 514623 Wamahada 516243 Pandaazuma 534162 Tenshinhan 541632 Profomisakari 624153 Andonishiki 645231 Shokikogi 645321 Gernobono 654213 chishafuwaku 654321 Heikotoriki chishafuwaku Edited February 27, 2015 by chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted June 12, 2015 (edited) Division Hatsu (1) Haru (2) Makuuchi 4 5 Juryo 0 1 Makushita 0 0 Sandanme 1 2 Jonidan 4 1 Jonokuchi 2 1 Mae-zumo 0 0 Makuuchi and Juryo 4 6 After Hatsu Basho advantage for the people of 2nd column (table of previous post) chishafuwaku Edited June 12, 2015 by chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted June 12, 2015 (edited) Division Hatsu (1) Haru (2) Natsu (3) Makuuchi 4 5 4 Juryo 0 1 0 Makushita 0 0 0 Sandanme 1 2 2 Jonidan 4 1 4 Jonokuchi 2 1 0 Mae-zumo 0 0 0 Makuuchi and Juryo 4 6 4 Natsu Basho with more fusen than Hatsu Basho because Sandanme tie-breaker. Therefore the better order are Haru > Natsu > Hatsu Bet 231 213 321 123 312 132 123456 Jejima 165423 Terarno 241356 Jakusotsu 243615 kuroimori 325641 Mmikasazuma 351624 Tsukiko 413652 Asameshimae 421536 teo_heel 425316 Ganzohnesushi 462315 Tsubame 463251 Kotoviki 514623 Wamahada 516243 Pandaazuma 534162 Tenshinhan 541632 Profomisakari 624153 Andonishiki 645231 Shokikogi 645321 Gernobono 654213 chishafuwaku 654321 Heikotoriki So for now better placed are who bets 231 (kuroimori, Ganzohnesushi, Tsubame and Shokikogi) worst it seems who bets 132 (Asameshimae and Profomisakari) chishafuwaku Edited June 12, 2015 by chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted December 6, 2015 (edited) 2015 FUSEN Division Hatsu (1) Haru (2) Natsu (3) Nagoya (4) Aki (5) Kyushu (6) Makuuchi 4 5 4 2 2 3 Juryo 0 1 0 0 1 1 Makushita 0 0 0 1 1 2 Sandanme 1 2 2 3 2 2 Jonidan 4 1 4 1 2 2 Jonokuchi 2 1 0 2 1 0 Mae-zumo 0 0 0 0 0 0 Makuuchi and Juryo 4 6 4 2 3 4 2015 FUSEN LUCKY (Kensho parade...) (Kensho parade...) (Kensho parade...) (Kensho parade...) 263154 (Kensho parade...) (Kensho parade...) (Kensho parade...) (Kensho parade...) chishafuwaku Edited December 6, 2015 by chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
chishafuwaku 476 Posted December 6, 2015 (edited) 2015 FUSEN LUCKY GAME RESULTS RANK PLAYER ----> BET <----- x6 x5 x4 x3 x2 x1 FUSEN_LUCKY 1 Andonishiki 624153 6 5 12 0 0 3 26 2 kuroimori 243615 0 20 0 6 2 1 29 3 Jakusotsu 241356 0 20 4 3 0 4 31 4 Jejima 123456 18 5 0 6 0 4 33 5 Mmikasazuma 325641 12 5 8 6 2 2 35 6 Kotoviki 463251 30 0 0 9 0 2 41 7 Terarno 165423 18 0 8 6 8 3 43 8 Tsubame 462315 30 0 8 3 2 1 44 9 Tsukiko 351624 12 15 4 6 8 0 45 10 Heikotoriki 654321 6 15 12 3 8 2 46 11 Gernobono 645321 6 20 8 3 8 2 47 11 chishafuwaku 654213 6 15 12 9 2 3 47 13 Shokikogi 645231 6 20 8 9 4 2 49 14 teo_heel 421536 30 5 4 3 4 4 50 15 Asameshimae 413652 30 10 0 6 0 5 51 16 Ganzohnesushi 425316 30 5 8 3 2 4 52 16 Pandaazuma 516243 24 10 4 9 2 3 52 16 Tenshinhan 534162 24 5 12 0 6 5 52 19 Wamahada 514623 24 10 12 6 8 3 63 19 Profomisakari 541632 24 20 4 6 4 5 63 Yusho: Andonishiki (First prize...) Yun-Yusho: kuroimori (Second prize...) Kanto-sho (3rd place): Jakusotsu Shukun-sho (bull-eye more fusen basho): kuroimori and Jakusotsu Gino-sho (best approximation to the average of possibilities = 40,8): Kotoviki Almost_master-sho (last place): Wamahada and Profomisakari chishafuwaku Edited December 6, 2015 by chishafuwaku Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,498 Posted December 6, 2015 I'd like 123456 for next year too, please. :) 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Andonishiki 171 Posted January 3, 2016 wow - just discovered that my 'basic' theory worked pretty well;))))) 624153 - stick to it for 2016 pls Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
