Guess the maegashira joijin Hatsu 2015

[Gurowake 4,154]

Wait, what? Am I two months early? No! This game is somewhat like Guess the Banzuke, except that you have to make your choices before the previous basho happens! Why, that's impossible, you say? Of course it is! But that doesn't stop people from playing Guess Kisenosato's Aite! Actually, maybe it does. So, uh, at least here you can get partial credit!

Your job is to guess, in order, the top 6 Maegashira on the Hatsu 2015 banzuke. You get one point for each of the following, cumulative:

Each of your picks ranked in the top 20 for Hatsu 2015 (generally through M5, but it might change based on additional sanyaku slots; for future events, this number will always be the number of Ozeki+Yokozuna on the just-released banzuke plus 14). (Weak hit)

Each of your picks ranked M1-M3. (Mediocre hit)

Each of your picks at the correct rank irrespective of side of banzuke. (Good hit)

Each of your picks at the correct rank including side of the banzuke. (Bullseye)

So for each bullseye you get 4, each good hit you get 3, each mediocre hit you get 2, each weak hit you get 1.

To make things even more interesting, you may enter (or change your entry) late. For each day of Makuuchi bouts that have started before your final entry, you lose two points. I doubt anyone will intentionally use this, but who knows? Regardless, I feel given the nature of the game it's reasonable to allow late entries with a slight handicap.

Tiebreakers:

1st: Most bullseyes

2nd: Most good hits

3rd: Most mediocre hits

4th: Points scored on actual M1e

5th: M1w

6th-9th: etc.

10th: Earliest entry.

For non-winners:

Shukun-sho: Most points from bullseyes and good hits. (minimum 7)

Kanto-sho: Most points from mediocre and weak hits. (minimum 5)

Gino-sho: Most points from rikishi currently ranked in the top 16. (minimum 3)

Good luck, you'll need it!

[Gurowake 4,154]

M1e Aoiyama

M1w Tochinoshin

M2e Myogiryu

M2w Endo

M3e Chiyotairyu

M3w Takekaze

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

I like this one...well done, Gurowake! I'll enter my picks in due course!

[kuroimori 1,634]

And yet another fine idea for another game! I'll submit my "chosen few" soon.

[chishafuwaku 476]

(On the banzuke...) (On the banzuke...)

East West

Chiyootori M1 Okinoumi

Tochiozan M2 Osunaraashi

Takekaze M3 Toyonoshima

chishafuwaku

Edited October 28, 2014 by chishafuwaku

[Toratorii 11]

Sounds fun! Isn't it fun to speculate?

Yoshikaze M1 Takekaze

Aoiyama M2 Okinoumi

Chiyootori M3 Aminishiki

~Torafujii

[kuroimori 1,634]

Ok, I think 2015 will start with the following top 3 maegashira ranks:

Toyonoshima M1 Aoiyama

Osunaarashi M2 Chiyotairyu

Tochinoshin M3 Takekaze

[Shokikogi 33]

Yes, it is fun to speculate, Totatorii. So here´s m guess:

East West

Aoiyama M1 Takayasu

Tochinoshin M2 Terunofuji

Toyonoshima M3 Yoshikaze

[Senkoho 552]

Aoiyama M1 Yoshikaze

Takekaze M2 Toyonoshima

Tochinoshin M3 Chiyotairyu

[Tenshinhan 1,612]

M1e Aoiyama

M1w Takekaze

M2e Kaisei

M2w Aminishiki

M3e Takarafuji

M3w Chiyootori

[Profomisakari 915]

I did my cubes into the shaker, shaked it and found the following solution of the problem:

Tochinoshin M1 Yoshikaze

Takayasu. . M2 Terunofuji

Takekaze. . M3 Ikioi

Profomisakari

[Mmikasazuma 12]

Yoshikaze M1 Tochinoshin

Osunaarashi M2 Aoiyama

Toyonoshima M3 Endo

[Randomitsuki 2,915]

M1e Ikioi

M1w Osunaarashi

M2e Tochinoshin

M2w Toyonoshima

M3e Endo

M3w Shohozan

[Jejima 1,498]

Interesting idea :-)

M1E Ichinojo

M1W Ikioi

M2E Takekaze

M2W Yoshikaze

M3E Tochinoshin

M3W Toyonoshima

[Ayagawa 14]

M1e Osunaarashi

M1w Terunofuji

M2e Toyonoshima

M2w Kaisei

M3e Tochinoshin

M3w Ikioi

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

M1E: Okinoumi

M1W: Endo

M2E: Takekaze

M2W: Ikioi

M3E: Myogiryu

M3W: Toyonoshima

Pandaazuma

Hoping for a bit of commentary from Gurowake in the second week a la Asashosakari's fantastic promotion/demotion thread! ;)

Thanks for this new game...it's an excellent idea.

[Kotoviki 16]

M1E Ichinojo

M1W Aoiyama

M2E Tochinoshin

M2W Terunofuji

M3E Tochiozan

M3W Aminishiki

Interesting idea! And a game I didn't miss the deadline for as I did for all the current basho games.

[Gurowake 4,154]

Interesting idea! And a game I didn't miss the deadline for as I did for all the current basho games.

Thanks for the entry! And from what I assume from normal scheduling, this was well before any Makuuchi matches started; it is unfortunate you were just a little too late for most everything else that had a deadline an hour earlier.

I'll have entry statistics in a few.

[Gurowake 4,154]

No entries for Toyohibiki, Jokoryu, Sadanoumi, Tokushoryu, Tamawashi, or anyone lower than Myogiryu.

	M1e	M1w	M2e	M2w	M3e	M3w	Total
Aoiyama	4	2	1	1	0	0	8
Ichinojo	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
Takekaze	0	2	3	0	2	2	9
Ikioi	1	1	0	1	0	2	5
Tochiozan	0	0	1	0	1	0	2
Aminishiki	0	0	0	1	0	2	3
Takarafuji	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
Takayasu	0	1	1	0	0	0	2
Terunofuji	0	1	0	3	0	0	4
Kaisei	0	0	1	1	0	0	2
Yoshikaze	2	2	0	1	0	1	6
Chiyootori	1	0	0	0	1	1	3
Osunaarashi	1	1	2	1	0	0	5
Toyonoshima	1	0	1	2	2	3	9
Okinoumi	1	1	0	1	0	0	3
Tochinoshin	1	2	3	0	4	0	10
Endo	0	1	0	1	1	1	4
Chiyotairyu	0	0	0	1	1	1	3
Shohozan	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
Myogiryu	0	0	1	0	1	0	2

[Kotoviki 16]

Interesting idea! And a game I didn't miss the deadline for as I did for all the current basho games.

Thanks for the entry! And from what I assume from normal scheduling, this was well before any Makuuchi matches started; it is unfortunate you were just a little too late for most everything else that had a deadline an hour earlier.

I'll have entry statistics in a few.

No problem! I would have seen this sooner had I had Internet the whole weekend! Which is why I missed all the games this basho!

[Gurowake 4,154]

My projection for the relevant Banzuke based solely on results through Day 7:

East	Rank	West
Aoiyama	S	Ichinojo
Okinoumi	K	Takayasu
Tochinoshin	M1	Toyonoshima
Aminishiki	M2	Takarafuji
Chiyootori	M3	Tochiozan
Terunofuji	M4	Takekaze
Jokoryu	M5	Ikioi

Standings with tiebreakers taken into consideration for all places:

Rank	Shikona	Points
1)	Tenshinhan	10
2)	Kotoviki	10
3)	Toratorii	9
4)	Profomisakari	8
5)	Chishafuwaku	8
6)	kuroimori	7
7)	Shokikogi	7
8)	Jejima	7
9)	Mmikasazuma	6
10)	Senkoho	6
11)	Ayagawa	6
12)	Gurowake	5
13)	Randomitsuki	5
14)	Pandaazuma	5

About as useful as the Sekitori-Oracle standings, but there you go.

Edited November 15, 2014 by Gurowake

[Jakusotsu 6,403]

About as useful as the Sekitori-Oracle standings, but there you go.

(Whatever above, it is funny...)

Priceless! (Sign of approval...)

[Gurowake 4,154]

Day 9 banzuke projection:

East	Rank	West
Aoiyama	S	Takayasu
Ichinojo	K	Okinoumi
Tochinoshin	M1	Tochiozan
Toyonoshima	M2	Takarafuji
Kyokutenho	M3	Aminishiki
Terunofuji	M4	Kaisei
Jokoryu	M5	Ikioi

Kyokutenho moves up into the major scoring area with no supporters; Jokoryu joins the lower scoring area with no supporters as well.

Given how many judgement calls were involved in the above banzuke, these standings are of questionable utility.

Rank	Shikona	Points
1)	Kotoviki	11
2)	Ayagawa	9
3)	Profomisakari	7
4)	Shokikogi	7
5)	Toratorii	6
6)	Randomitsuki	6
7)	Senkoho	6
8)	Mmikasazuma	6
9)	Tenshinhan	6
10)	Jejima	6
11)	kuroimori	5
12)	Chishafuwaku	5
13)	Gurowake	4
14)	Pandaazuma	4

Kotoviki remains near the top while Pandaazuma and I remain near the bottom.

Edited November 17, 2014 by Gurowake

[chishafuwaku 476]

Kotoviki remains near the top while Pandaazuma and I remain near the bottom.

Me to (Gathering...)

chishafuwaku

[Gurowake 4,154]

Projected Banzuke after Day 11.

East	Rank	West
Aoiyama	S	Ichinojo
Takayasu	K	Tochiozan
Tochinoshin	M1	Okinoumi
Toyonoshima	M2	Jokoryu
Takarafuji	M3	Aminishiki
Myogiryu	M4	Terunofuji
Ikioi	M5	Chiyotairyu

Jokoryu and Toyonoshima heavily benefit from barely having winning records that are good enough at least in theory to stay ahead of Chiyotairyu, Myogiryu, and Kyokutenho.

Standings are much tighter, but the leader remains; Kotoviki is the only one to have all their picks worth at least one point.

Rank	Shikona	Points
1)	Kotoviki	10
2)	Ayagawa	8
3)	Tenshinhan	7
4)	Chishafuwaku	7
5)	Toratorii	7
6)	Profomisakari	7
7)	Pandaazuma	7
8)	Senkoho	7
9)	Shokikogi	7
10)	Randomitsuki	6
11)	Mmikasazuma	6
12)	Gurowake	6
13)	kuroimori	6
14)	Jejima	6