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Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Aki 2014

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Who's more likely to get a kachikoshi next basho, Aminishiki whose last joi KK was nearly two years ago and last sanyaku KK nearly five, or Ichinojo?

I think you've forgotten this (Natsu, 2014), but that doesn't mean I disagree with on that.

Edited by shumitto

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How certain is it that Aoyama will go all the way to sekiwake? And not kamusubi. That would be great news.

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Who's more likely to get a kachikoshi next basho, Aminishiki whose last joi KK was nearly two years ago and last sanyaku KK nearly five, or Ichinojo?

I think you've forgotten this (Natsu, 2014), but that doesn't mean I disagree with on that.
Wow, I looked at his results at least three times before posting and managed to overlook the obvious every time. Geez.

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My rough top 30 Makushita projection

Kizenryu Ms1 Akiseyama
Masunoyama Ms2 Wakanoshima
Onosho Ms3 Yoshiazuma
Kyokutaisei Ms4 Abiko
Takatoshi Ms5 Chiyonokuni
Yamatofuji Ms6 Keitenkai
Masunoumi Ms7 Dairaido
Terutsuyoshi Ms8 Kawabata
Horyuyama Ms9 Kawanari
Chiyoshoma Ms10 Akua
Kairyu Ms11 Ishiura
Kotokobai Ms12 Sasanoyama
Meisei Ms13 Horikiri
Irie Ms14 Gochozan
Mitoyutaka Ms15 Nishikigi

Onosho, Masunoumi, Takatoshi, Meisei, Akua, and Abiko will definitely be at new career high ranks with KK at their current career high rank. Mitoyutaka and Terutsuyoshi are being projected at new career high ranks, and Sasanoyama is being projected to equal his previous career high; it remains to be seen what the banzuke actually says.

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Let's test my premonition powers.

Aioyama and Tochiozan (or Ikioi) S

Ikioi (or Tochiozan) K

Aminishiki and Ichinojo M1

(I already told that Ichinojo shikona sounds really funny in Portuguese?)

Edited by bettega

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Maybe I am not the only one but O2w Goeido is KK and Y2E Harumafuji is MK...

Can we imagine that Harumafuji can be Y2W for the next Banzuke and Goeido O2E ?

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My point was that Komusubi and M1 have virtually no difference when it comes to opponents or promotion possibilities, so its just a prestige / money issue, and I think its quite possible they'll short-change Ichinojo on that.

If I'm not mistaken you can start an Ozeki run from Komusubi, but not from M1. So in the not so unlikely event that Ichinojo goes straight to double digit results in the next bashos, that would make a huge difference. So the main point the Banzuke committee is going to discuss is whether they postpone Ichinojos Ozeki run.

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I tended to suck at GTB at the latest when the current mental banzuke making style was established (and thus I stopped playing), but I also think Aoiyama and Ichinojo should go to Sekiwake with Takekaze moving to Ke and the 10-5 pair to Kw and M1e respectively.

I don't know if this counts more for the banzuke makers than a determined dart throw, but Ichinojo's opponents are strongly supporting his cause. He has won three of his four bouts against the Y-O bunch, he won eight of his thirteen against KK rikishi, of whom four ended up with double digits. It's hard to think of a plausbly stronger opposition if you consider his rank. He could have done only better by taking the yusho, I guess.

I know that Ichinojo won three out of four against the Y-Os but does the fact that two of those were by henka count against him, or is it only us forum people that care? Because take the henkas out and he only beat Goeido with his legit sumo skills.

Also, what about the fact that Ikioi beat him? Will that be taken into account when determining where both will end up relative to each other?

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Is there any chance that the Yokozuna rankings for Kak and Haru could get shuffled on account of Haru's injury? Or is the fact that he's still 5 yushos up more important?

Edit: by which I mean could Kak be Y1w next basho?

Edited by Shitamachi

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Is there any chance that the Yokozuna rankings for Kak and Haru could get shuffled on account of Haru's injury? Or is the fact that he's still 5 yushos up more important?

Edit: by which I mean could Kak be Y1w next basho?

Y order is only based on the last basho's result. If it is equal, then the order does not change.

So surely Kakuryu will be Y1w.

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My point was that Komusubi and M1 have virtually no difference when it comes to opponents or promotion possibilities, so its just a prestige / money issue, and I think its quite possible they'll short-change Ichinojo on that.

If I'm not mistaken you can start an Ozeki run from Komusubi, but not from M1. So in the not so unlikely event that Ichinojo goes straight to double digit results in the next bashos, that would make a huge difference. So the main point the Banzuke committee is going to discuss is whether they postpone Ichinojos Ozeki run.

I think you simply are mistaken, and an Ozeki run is perfectly possible from M1. It's been a while since the last successful run, but there were five such Ozeki promotions in the six-basho era.

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I tended to suck at GTB at the latest when the current mental banzuke making style was established (and thus I stopped playing), but I also think Aoiyama and Ichinojo should go to Sekiwake with Takekaze moving to Ke and the 10-5 pair to Kw and M1e respectively.

I don't know if this counts more for the banzuke makers than a determined dart throw, but Ichinojo's opponents are strongly supporting his cause. He has won three of his four bouts against the Y-O bunch, he won eight of his thirteen against KK rikishi, of whom four ended up with double digits. It's hard to think of a plausbly stronger opposition if you consider his rank. He could have done only better by taking the yusho, I guess.

I know that Ichinojo won three out of four against the Y-Os but does the fact that two of those were by henka count against him, or is it only us forum people that care? Because take the henkas out and he only beat Goeido with his legit sumo skills.

Also, what about the fact that Ikioi beat him? Will that be taken into account when determining where both will end up relative to each other?

I don't think they count against him in a banzuke sense at all.

I do believe, however, that the fact that he only beat Goeido straight up does and will count in the way his opponents will treat him next basho, and the way he treats them. What I mean is that Kisenosato or Kakuryu has no reason to "fear" Ichinojo (...yet ;-) ). They will not enter the dohyo next time thinking "this guy has my number", they'll enter the dohyo thinking "this is the brat that henka'd me last time and I need to teach him a lesson". Until he proves he can actually beat them straight up, they will not consider him a legitimate adversary.

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My point was that Komusubi and M1 have virtually no difference when it comes to opponents or promotion possibilities, so its just a prestige / money issue, and I think its quite possible they'll short-change Ichinojo on that.

If I'm not mistaken you can start an Ozeki run from Komusubi, but not from M1. So in the not so unlikely event that Ichinojo goes straight to double digit results in the next bashos, that would make a huge difference. So the main point the Banzuke committee is going to discuss is whether they postpone Ichinojos Ozeki run.

I think you simply are mistaken, and an Ozeki run is perfectly possible from M1. It's been a while since the last successful run, but there were five such Ozeki promotions in the six-basho era.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Those were all jap rikishi and the Sumo Association usually hold foreign rikishi such as for example Baruto to a higher standard. But its good to know that he can legitimately start his Oz run from M1, K, or S. Honestly I would rank them S - Aoiyama and Inchinjo. K- Ikoki and Take. Aminishki is is not gonna KK in Sanyaku and if they are gonna knock off Ichi of Sanyaku it might as well be for someone like Tochiozan that with the right help can maybe scratch of 32 wins, is still sorta young, and did pretty well despite not being 100% this basho.

Edited by Mongolith

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My point was that Komusubi and M1 have virtually no difference when it comes to opponents or promotion possibilities, so its just a prestige / money issue, and I think its quite possible they'll short-change Ichinojo on that.

If I'm not mistaken you can start an Ozeki run from Komusubi, but not from M1. So in the not so unlikely event that Ichinojo goes straight to double digit results in the next bashos, that would make a huge difference. So the main point the Banzuke committee is going to discuss is whether they postpone Ichinojos Ozeki run.

I think you simply are mistaken, and an Ozeki run is perfectly possible from M1. It's been a while since the last successful run, but there were five such Ozeki promotions in the six-basho era.

Is there a counter example? Was there anyone who had at least 34 wins over three bashos, with the first basho at M4 minimum, and who was not promoted to Ozeki?

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What matters for the Ozeki runs is that he's facing practically the same opponents that he would face as an Ozeki. My data indicates that using a simplistic Y=M(-3), O=M(-2) etc. system, an Ozeki's average opponent is M(.78), a Sekiwake's M(.82), a Komusubi's M(.74), and an M1's M(1.25). Yes, Komusubi face harder schedules than Sekiwake or Ozeki, because they have to face the same set of people as those ranked above them yet are themselves a lower rank making the set of people they actually face slightly higher in rank (Yokozuna do face a slightly harder schedule (.67), as they are nearly always faced against the top 15 available). So generally it's considered equivalent to start an Ozeki run at K or S, while one that starts at a top Maegashira rank will probably need a slightly more convincing record.

As to where he'll end up, I pretty much went over what I thought was going to happen in each scenario. I don't think his henka will count against him for promotion into junior sanyaku. If he continues to do it they might delay promotion to Ozeki, but for normal promotions generally it's always just about the record and not how one got there.

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Was there anyone who had at least 34 wins over three bashos, with the first basho at M4 minimum, and who was not promoted to Ozeki?

Just going by the link on the main page of the database for Ozeki runs, there was Wakanohana III in 1993 M3 10-5, K 14-1 Y, S 10-5 =34 -> S and Kotomitsuki in 2001 M2 13-2 Y, S 9-6, S 12-3 =34 -> S and Miyabiyama's 34 in 2000 with all of them in sanyaku in which he was passed over probably because he had already failed at being an Ozeki in the past and still showed lots of inconsistency. Takanohana in 1972 went M1 10-5, K 11-4 J, S 12-3 J =33 -> S and then posted another 10-5 and made Ozeki.

Asashio in 1982 had M1 9-6, S 14-1 D, S 12-3 J =35 -> O and Kitao in 1985 had M1 12-3 J, S 11-4, S 12-3 =35 -> O. There was also a guy in the 50s who had 36 starting from M1 that was promoted, and another in the 60s that had 37 starting from M2 that made Ozeki.

So historically we can say that 33 from M1 was not enough, 34 from M2 was not enough, and 35 from M1 was enough, but 34 from M1 is unsettled. And really when it comes to Ozeki promotions it's more than just whether they have the wins; their entire history as well as technique displayed is considered.

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My attempt at juryo, with massive overpromotions for the 8-7 trio to fill the gap:

Tochinoshin (J5w 15-0 Y) J1 Sadanofuji (M12w 4-11)

Sadanofuji (M12w 4-11) J1 Tokitenku (M16e 6-9)

Kagamio (M16w 6-9) J2 Chiyoo (J8w 9-6)

Satoyama (J9w 9-3-3) J3 Seiro (J10w 9-6)

Asahisho (J11e 8-7) J4 Shotenro (J3e 6-9)

Daido (J12e 8-7) J5 Kitaharima (J12w 8-7)

Tosayutaka (J4e 6-9) J6 Sotairyu (J2w 5-10)

Fujiazuma (J6w 7-8) J7 Asasekiryu (J7e 7-8)

Wakanosato (J5e 6-9) J8 Gagamaru (J3w 5-10)

Tamaasuka (J6e 6-9) J9 Homasho (M13e 0-0-15)

Azumaryu (M14w 0-0-15) J10 Iwasaki (Ms2w 6-1)

Tokushinho (J8e 6-9) J11 Kotoeko (Ms3e 5-2)

Daieisho (J9e 6-9) J12 Tenkaiho (Ms1e 4-3)

Sakigake (J10e 6-9) J13 Tochihiryu (Ms1w 4-3)

Dewahayate (Ms2e 4-3) J14 Tatsu (Ms3w 4-3)

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My point was that Komusubi and M1 have virtually no difference when it comes to opponents or promotion possibilities, so its just a prestige / money issue, and I think its quite possible they'll short-change Ichinojo on that.

If I'm not mistaken you can start an Ozeki run from Komusubi, but not from M1. So in the not so unlikely event that Ichinojo goes straight to double digit results in the next bashos, that would make a huge difference. So the main point the Banzuke committee is going to discuss is whether they postpone Ichinojos Ozeki run.

I think you simply are mistaken, and an Ozeki run is perfectly possible from M1. It's been a while since the last successful run, but there were five such Ozeki promotions in the six-basho era.

Interesting. I was also under the impression that one needed at least K or better S for an Ozeki run. But it makes more sense if an Ozeki run can start at M1 or even M2.

What I don't get is why so many think Ichinojo would be M1 next basho. SW looks most plausible to me, perhaps KE. But it seems hard to make the case for a lower rank.

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My attempt at juryo, with massive overpromotions for the 8-7 trio to fill the gap:Tochinoshin (J5w 15-0 Y) J1 Sadanofuji (M12w 4-11)

Nice one!

After the really bad joke the banzuke bandits pulled on Tochinoshin last time, I caught myself thinking these days that maybe, MAYBE! T-Shin might actually have a small chance to be promoted if he finishes at least with a 15-0 zensho Juryo yusho, beating 5 Yokozuna in the process. ;-)

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(o) 4-3 Tenkaiho Ms1 Tochihiryu 4-3 (o)

(o) 4-3 Dewahayate Ms2 Iwasaki 6-1 (o)

(o) 5-2 Kotoeko Ms3 Tatsu 4-3 (o)

First time since Natsu 2007 that all six top Makushita get their KK.

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I think you simply are mistaken, and an Ozeki run is perfectly possible from M1. It's been a while since the last successful run, but there were five such Ozeki promotions in the six-basho era.

I was so sure because I read on some reasonably credible source.

Now I remembered, it was in the German Wikipedia Ozeki entry. Not that I consider it overly credible, but not the worst of sources.

This wrong information still resides there, maybe anybody can clear it up in a free minute.

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I think you simply are mistaken, and an Ozeki run is perfectly possible from M1. It's been a while since the last successful run, but there were five such Ozeki promotions in the six-basho era.

I was so sure because I read on some reasonably credible source.

Now I remembered, it was in the German Wikipedia Ozeki entry. Not that I consider it overly credible, but not the worst of sources.

This wrong information still resides there, maybe anybody can clear it up in a free minute.

Well, the source isn't really wrong. The basic framework "33-35 wins in three basho within the two ranks below ozeki" is somewhat limited ("grundsätzlich"). That's really a rather correct description, deviations are rare but not out of the question (another deviation is Chiyotaikai's promotion with 32 wins, but a playoff yusho in the third basho).

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