Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2014

[Asashosakari 20,297]

Asa, I see you didn't talk at all about Tatsu.

That oversight occurred to me, too, so I edited that in right after posting. :-)

6-1 from ms7 I would ordinarily say would be good enough, about as good as a 5-2 from ms4 which you've said is in, and certainly better than a 4-3 from ms3.

Not the way they've done it for the last ~15 years, where a 6-1 from Ms7 is worth about the same as 4-3 from Ms4 or Ms5. Dewahayate/Tatsu (with 6 wins) is a toss-up, Wakakoyu/Tatsu clearly favours Wakakoyu. Big bonus for being ranked inside the top 5 ranks when it comes to promotion decisions.

[lackmaker 458]

Going by the numbers, Sekiwake goes to Myogiryu if he wins, then Jokoryu if he wins, then Takakaze if he wins, and then it's a tossup between Osunaarashi (who faces Myogiryu) and Takayasu (who faces Takekaze). Going by historical data, 8-7 from M3 has made Sekiwake a couple times and Komusubi many times, while only one 12-3 from M11 has even made Komusubi, so I'd give it to Osunaarashi. As for the sanyaku slots in total, I'd give one to Jokoryu and one each to the winners of Osunaarashi v. Myogiryu and Takayasu v. Takekaze.

.

Do I take it that if Osunaarashi wins tomorrow you reckon he will rank higher than Myogiryu next basho?

[bettega 433]

Going by the numbers, Sekiwake goes to Myogiryu if he wins, then Jokoryu if he wins, then Takakaze if he wins, and then it's a tossup between Osunaarashi (who faces Myogiryu) and Takayasu (who faces Takekaze). Going by historical data, 8-7 from M3 has made Sekiwake a couple times and Komusubi many times, while only one 12-3 from M11 has even made Komusubi, so I'd give it to Osunaarashi. As for the sanyaku slots in total, I'd give one to Jokoryu and one each to the winners of Osunaarashi v. Myogiryu and Takayasu v. Takekaze.

.

Do I take it that if Osunaarashi wins tomorrow you reckon he will rank higher than Myogiryu next basho?

I think if Osuna wins we'll be Sekiwake. Just wow.

[krindel 688]

This is one of the things I love so much about sumo... Those all-or-nothing senshuraku bouts that keep popping up. Osunaarashi wins, he is up for a sansho and a sanyaku slot. He loses, he's got nothing...

And that's without even going near to the Makushita - Juryo borders and the importance of THOSE matches :-)

[Asashosakari 20,297]

This is one of the things I love so much about sumo... Those all-or-nothing senshuraku bouts that keep popping up. Osunaarashi wins, he is up for a sansho and a sanyaku slot. He loses, he's got nothing...

And that's without even going near to the Makushita - Juryo borders and the importance of THOSE matches :-)

Which is why it's so annoying that they don't wait with the Day 15 makuuchi torikumi, at least until most maegashira have fought on Day 14. The juryo schedule for tomorrow is quite an artful creation - I've already mentioned the two "promotion contenders vs. demotion candidates" matchups, of which I'm a big fan, but the 7-7 matches are very well done, too:

There are seven 7-7's in juryo, of which we can exclude Sotairyu (he's one of the two promotion contenders), leaving six more. Of these, Daieisho has already faced all five others - they have given him a very good alternative opponent with Chiyonokuni (J11w 6-9), because a loss would drop Chiyonokuni to J14 which would make for a very uncomfortable Aki basho for him, so plenty of reason to be motivated. Looking at the other five 7-7's:

- Fujiazuma has faced everybody except Asasekiryu, and Fujiazuma-Asasekiryu is exactly what they have scheduled.

- Kyokutaisei has faced everybody except Asasekiryu and Shotenro, and with Asasekiryu already needed for Fujiazuma, they have thus scheduled Kyokutaisei-Shotenro.

That leaves Satoyama as the odd man out, and even he has received a decent opponent with Tochihiryu (J14w 6-8), who needs the win to make his re-promotion chances in Aki much better (big difference between Ms1 and Ms3/4). Just smart work all around, and probably underappreciated.

By contrast, tomorrow's makuuchi schedule (obviously finalized as soon as the juryo bouts had finished) is once again a mess where nearly all the 7-7's are facing 6-8's or 8-6's. I'll exclude Osunaarashi's match from the criticism here, because Myogiryu is a very good choice for him due to the sanyaku situation, but the rest is just....bleh. Oddly enough they seem to have taken the yaocho scandal as an inverse wakeup call, i.e. it almost looks as though they believe, after firing so many rikishi everyone's now so scared that they'll give 100% all the time and there's no need now to build a senshuraku schedule that encourages motivated fighting. Makes no sense to me, except as an indication of laziness.

Edited July 26, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,154]

I erred in my analysis in my previous post, which was made in haste as I was about to leave, but now I've returned to have time to sort everything out. These are the "by the numbers" outcomes:

Myogiryu win (11-4 M6 -> S)

Jokoryu win (11-4 M7 -> K)

Takekaze win (9-6 M4 -> M1), Myogiryu loss (10-5 M6 -> M1)

Osunaarashi win (8-7 M3 -> M2), Takayasu win (12-3 M11 -> M2), Jokoryu loss (10-5 M7 -> M2)

Given that Myogiryu and Jokoryu appear there with losses and Takayasu faces Takekaze, at least 3 of those above situations will occur to fill Sanyaku; in the event that some of those occurrences are on the last line, they might keep Aoiyama if he wins as he would have a theoretically better ending position. People they could look at beyond those would be those ending up at M3: Terunofuji, Chiyotairyu, and Toyonoshima with wins, and Takekaze with a loss, but all those seem incredibly unlikely.

Myogiryu has a better by-the-numbers result even if he loses to Osunaarashi, but that's no guarantee that they won't reward Osunaarashi for having a much, much tougher schedule than anyone else in consideration - far beyond what would normally be expected for a jump in 3 ranks. Boody's average opponent was a touch below an M1 (counting K = 0, S = -1, O = -2, Y = -3) while Myogiryu's was a touch above an M7, and there's good reason to believe that the simplistic system mentioned parenthetically above underrates the ranks above K. It basically comes down to a discussion in the banzuke committee and that's why playing Guess the Banzuke is far from trivial.

Edited July 26, 2014 by Gurowake

[Asashosakari 20,297]

People they could look at beyond those would be those ending up at M3: Ternofuji, Chiyotairyu, and Toyonoshima with wins, and Takekaze with a loss, but all those seem incredibly unlikely.

IMHO Takekaze getting in with 8-7 is a likely outcome if Osunaarashi loses. There aren't three candidates who are clearly better than him in that scenario.

[Gurowake 4,154]

6-1 from ms7 I would ordinarily say would be good enough, about as good as a 5-2 from ms4 which you've said is in, and certainly better than a 4-3 from ms3.

Not the way they've done it for the last ~15 years, where a 6-1 from Ms7 is worth about the same as 4-3 from Ms4 or Ms5. Dewahayate/Tatsu (with 6 wins) is a toss-up, Wakakoyu/Tatsu clearly favours Wakakoyu. Big bonus for being ranked inside the top 5 ranks when it comes to promotion decisions.

Well that's part of the issue with me trying to get as much data for my compilation of typical promotion amounts in the low ranks; the more data I gather, the more likely that the data is no longer relevant. It's obviously most a problem with the very large movement records where there are very few instances of each event.

[Gurowake 4,154]

People they could look at beyond those would be those ending up at M3: Ternofuji, Chiyotairyu, and Toyonoshima with wins, and Takekaze with a loss, but all those seem incredibly unlikely.

IMHO Takekaze getting in with 8-7 is a likely outcome if Osunaarashi loses. There aren't three candidates who are clearly better than him in that scenario.

I actually was going to mention that Takekaze would be the most likely among them given his tougher schedule, and you're probably right since you seem more in tune with these things than I am.

[Asashosakari 20,297]

Well that's part of the issue with me trying to get as much data for my compilation of typical promotion amounts in the low ranks; the more data I gather, the more likely that the data is no longer relevant.

The issue here is more that context is very important in this specific area of the banzuke. For instance, with a Ms4e 4-3 and Ms7e 6-1, this:

Ms4e 4-3 -> Ms1w

Ms7e 6-1 -> Ms1e

is the most likely outcome when both get stuck in makushita, but this:

Ms4e 4-3 -> J14w

Ms7e 6-1 -> Ms1e

is the most likely outcome when exactly one juryo spot is available.

[Itachiyama 121]

Possibly Sanyaku Aki Basho, Myogiryu and Takekaze Sekiwake and Jokoryu and Terunofuji. A bit unexpected some days ago ...

Sadanofuji's return to Makuuchi seems a bit doubtful, will Kagamio be the unlucky one!!!!

[Itachiyama 121]

Any doubts there will be 4 promotions to Juryo?

Sakigake, Yoshiazuma, Kitaharima, Wakakoyu

for Wakanoshima, Kizenryu, Tochihiryu and Tenkaiho (after 19 Sekitori Basho in a row)

[Kaiomitsuki 408]

Possibly Sanyaku Aki Basho, Myogiryu and Takekaze Sekiwake and Jokoryu and Terunofuji. A bit unexpected some days ago ...

Sadanofuji's return to Makuuchi seems a bit doubtful, will Kagamio be the unlucky one!!!!

Why Myogiryu and Takekaze for Sekiwake ? Is Goeido officially an Ozeki ?

Try to create your GTB.... and you will see that there is too many MK rikishis between M10 and M17... so I think Sadanofuji will be in Makuuchi

[Asashosakari 20,297]

Summary coming soon, but in the meantime I'd like to highlight a piece of banzuke trivia I'd almost given up on seeing again: Goeido's apparent promotion to ozeki will give us the first complete lower sanyaku clear-out in 30 years. Natsu 1984 had been the last time that no incumbent sekiwake or komusubi continued in those ranks for the next basho.

[Chiyozakura 163]

Takekaze as new Sekiwake would be awesome. To debut at that rank at 35 years is an astonishing achievement!

[Asashosakari 20,297]

Day 15:

It wasn't exactly smooth sailing but in the end Hakuho did manage to grab his 30th yusho, not even needing a playoff for it thanks to Goeido's win over ozeki Kotoshogiku. That victory has apparently also netted Goeido an ozeki promotion...well, it's arguably less strange than putting him on Sekiwake East for this basho to begin with (or than at least one of those 7-8 non-demotions). Can anyone confirm he will be subject to the normal "two makekoshi as ozeki means demotion" rule? Just making sure...

All sarcasm aside, this decision will probably freshen up the lower sanyaku ranks for the next little while as there's now no obvious next ozeki candidate, and it'll be up to guys such as Myogiryu, Tochiozan, Endo, Osunaarashi, Terunofuji and more (Ichinojo?) to show they're capable of breaking out from the pack.

With suddenly four Aki sanyaku slots up for grabs, all of today's bouts had extra significance, even for some contenders who weren't going to make the grade with just three slots available. The day's highlight bout was won by Myogiryu, costing his opponent Osunaarashi not just the kachikoshi, but also a sansho and a likely sanyaku debut. For his part, Myogiryu is nailed on as one of the next two sekiwake. Joining him (and debuting) at the third-highest rank will be Takekaze who grabbed win number 9 and ended Takayasu's hopes of figuring into the yusho decision.

That result also served to knock Takayasu out of the sanyaku race, leaving it up to Jokoryu, Terunofuji and Chiyotairyu. The latter pair both won their bouts while Jokoryu wasn't able to come through against already-MK Yoshikaze. Incumbent komusubi Aoiyama dropped to 6-9 after losing to Endo, guaranteeing that he will have to leave the titled ranks.

(↑) 12-3 Goeido S Tochiozan 2-6-7 (x)

(x) 3-12 Aminishiki K Aoiyama 6-9 (x)

M1

M2

M3 Osunaarashi 7-8 (x)

M4 Takekaze 9-6 (o)

M5

(?) 9-6 Terunofuji M6 Myogiryu 11-4 (o)

M7 Jokoryu 10-5 (o)

(?) 10-5 Chiyotairyu M8

...

M11 Takayasu 11-4 (x)

It appears that Jokoryu has fallen over the line despite today's loss; he's clearly the best candidate for one of the two komusubi positions. Terunofuji versus Chiyotairyu for slot #2 is a real toss-up. Terunofuji did have the somewhat harder schedule, but it's an area of the banzuke where they normally don't seem to spend much time worrying about such details. Nevertheless, my guess is that Terunofuji will get the nod, not least because he's a member of chief shimpan Isegahama's stable.

Our three remaining demotion candidates Tokitenku, Kagamio and Tokushoryu all won today. The contenders on the juryo side didn't fare quite this well as Sotairyu fell to 7-8 in a fiercely contested bout with Daido. Tosayutaka was also beaten by Amuru who probably ended somebody's promotion hopes for the second day in a row with that. Sadanofuji did win, however, and with 9 wins from the top rank it's pretty much impossible to deny his promotion. Tochinoshin did things the hard way, beating Ichinojo twice to secure the juryo yusho.

(?) 4-11 Tokushoryu M10

...

(?) 6-9 Kagamio M14

(x) 5-10 Gagamaru M15 Tokitenku 7-8 (?)

(x) 5-10 Wakanosato M16

M17 ---

(x) 7-8 Sotairyu J1 Sadanofuji 9-6 (o)

J2

(o) 12-3 Takanoiwa J3 Ichinojo 13-2 (o)

J4 Homarefuji 9-6 (?)

J5

(?) 10-5 Amuru J6

J7

J8 Tosayutaka 11-4 (?)

...

(?) 13-2 Tochinoshin J12

The J1-J5 area of the next banzuke will be quite an overcrowded mess - I've added Amuru and Homarefuji back in to show why, but there are actually two more KKs that contribute to it with Shotenro at J4e and Kotoyuki at J5w (both 8-7). In any case, the bigger issue to address is that there are three strong promotion candidates but only two obvious demotions. Goeido's ozeki promotion does open the door to a reasonably straight-forward solution: The disappearance of the M17e rank technically puts Tokushoryu and Kagamio into demotable territory, and I expect them to take advantage of it.

However, two questions remain: Which one of them has to make room for Sadanofuji, or in case both are dropped, who else gets to go up as the 4th man? My personal preference won't come as a surprise after what I've written in the past few days - I'd drop both and promote Tochinoshin. However, it's not that difficult to imagine just three demotions, or Homarefuji, Amuru or Tosayutaka getting promoted. Even more creative solutions would have to include dropping Tokitenku as well, but that strikes me as a bridge too far.

Incidentally, things are set to get very sparse after M5 in the next banzuke session, so there could be some very high promotions for Ichinojo and Takanoiwa (single-digit ranks potentially), and even Sadanofuji might profit.

Wakakoyu can count himself a lucky man as, while Daido saved his juryo existence at the last minute (see above), Tenkaiho was not as fortunate. His loss to Sadanofuji dropped him to 5-10, and with Wakakoyu putting in a decent promotion claim, that should mean a trip back to makushita for the big Onoe sekitori.

(o) 6-9 Daido J10 Tenkaiho 5-10 (x)

J11

J12

(x) 4-11 Wakanoshima J13

(x) 4-11 Kizenryu J14 Tochihiryu 7-8 (x)

(o) 6-1 Sakigake Ms1

Ms2 Yoshiazuma 5-2 (o)

(o) 4-3 Wakakoyu Ms3

(o) 5-2 Kitaharima Ms4 Dewahayate 4-3

4-3 Kotoeko Ms5

Ms6

(x) 5-2 Tatsu Ms7

In the end it's a pretty clear 4-rikishi exchange here without anybody getting a raw deal. By the way, I implore all moto-Takanoyama fans to take a look at Kitaharima who's not much bigger and manages to deliver nearly as wacky bouts without having to henka in half of them. As for the other promotees, Sakigake looked quite impressive this basho and just might stick in juryo this time around, Wakakoyu continued his Jekyll and Hyde impression (when he's allowed to get into his pushing groove he's still quite good, when he is denied he's utterly helpless), and Yoshiazuma's results defy any rational explanation IMHO. No debuting juryo rikishi for Aki, so I expect the overall interest in the division will be a bit more muted than it was the last couple of tournaments.

[Gurowake 4,154]

Summary coming soon, but in the meantime I'd like to highlight a piece of banzuke trivia I'd almost given up on seeing again: Goeido's apparent promotion to ozeki will give us the first complete lower sanyaku clear-out in 30 years. Natsu 1984 had been the last time that no incumbent sekiwake or komusubi continued in those ranks for the next basho.

They had to go really deep for the new sanyaku then too. 9-6 from M7, 8-7 from M5, and an 8-7 M3 made Sekiwake. We probably will get a 9-6 M4 at Sekiwake along with a 10-5 M7 and 9-6 M6 as Komusubi, so not quite as bad as then.

I also completely concur with the promotion analysis. The entire banzuke looks to have several crowded and sparse areas far worse than usual, and we have 2 high ranked kyujos to randomly guess where they'll end up.

[marmotta 0]

hi i have a question for asoshosakari

i saw your prediction for promotion and demotion in jurio, u didnt mention kyokutaisei at j13 7-8 ( i saw a normal life and became a fan :P ) i am a bit worried, u think they re gonna demote Tenkaiho at j10 5-10 instead of kyokutaisei? i like to know why.

[Gurowake 4,154]

hi i have a question for asoshosakari

i saw your prediction for promotion and demotion in jurio, u didnt mention kyokutaisei at j13 7-8 ( i saw a normal life and became a fan :P ) i am a bit worried, u think they re gonna demote Tenkaiho at j10 5-10 instead of kyokutaisei? i like to know why.

As a very general rule (and one that clearly can't be followed all the time, but is a general guideline), sekitori move down one rank for each loss and up a rank for each win. Thus the net effect of a 7-8 is to move down one rank and the net effect of a 5-10 is to move down 5 ranks. That puts Kyokutaisei at J14 and Tenkaiho at Ms1.

[marmotta 0]

hi i have a question for asoshosakari

i saw your prediction for promotion and demotion in jurio, u didnt mention kyokutaisei at j13 7-8 ( i saw a normal life and became a fan :P ) i am a bit worried, u think they re gonna demote Tenkaiho at j10 5-10 instead of kyokutaisei? i like to know why.

As a very general rule (and one that clearly can't be followed all the time, but is a general guideline), sekitori move down one rank for each loss and up a rank for each win. Thus the net effect of a 7-8 is to move down one rank and the net effect of a 5-10 is to move down 5 ranks. That puts Kyokutaisei at J14 and Tenkaiho at Ms1.

ty!!

[kosomo 32]

Can a higher ranked maegashira with a make-koshi be promoted to sanyaku over a lower ranked maegashire with a kachi-koshi?

Specifically, I'm talking about Osunaarashi vs. Endo. I hear talk of Endo getting to Komusubi, but at M5, he had a pretty easy schedule, never going against any Sekiwake, Ozeki or Yokozuna. I would consider Osunaarashi's 7-8 performance (with 2 wins versus yokozuna, and bouts vs. higher sanyaku) more impressive than Endo's 8-7 performance (never facing any higher sanyaku).

[lackmaker 458]

The specific instance clearly won't happen as too many others have better promotable records than Endo. And both Aoiyama and Yoshikaze should be demoted to higher ranks than Osunaarashi.

[Doitsuyama 1,263]

Can a higher ranked maegashira with a make-koshi be promoted to sanyaku over a lower ranked maegashire with a kachi-koshi?

Specifically, I'm talking about Osunaarashi vs. Endo. I hear talk of Endo getting to Komusubi, but at M5, he had a pretty easy schedule, never going against any Sekiwake, Ozeki or Yokozuna. I would consider Osunaarashi's 7-8 performance (with 2 wins versus yokozuna, and bouts vs. higher sanyaku) more impressive than Endo's 8-7 performance (never facing any higher sanyaku).

No, a make-koshi maegashira will never get a promotion to higher than his current rank, much less to sanyaku. The best a make-koshi rikishi can hope for is to keep his current rank which happens very rarely and needs special luck.

[Akinomaki 41,856]

a make-koshi maegashira will never get a promotion to higher than his current rank, much less to sanyaku. The best a make-koshi rikishi can hope for is to keep his current rank which happens very rarely and needs special luck.

Have there been cases where a makekoshi rikishi was "promoted" from west to east at his rank ?

[Tsubame 378]

a make-koshi maegashira will never get a promotion to higher than his current rank, much less to sanyaku. The best a make-koshi rikishi can hope for is to keep his current rank which happens very rarely and needs special luck.

Have there been cases where a makekoshi rikishi was "promoted" from west to east at his rank ?

Only found one example in the database (for makuuchi and juryo): Tochihikari got a 7-8 make-koshi as M1w in Nagoya 1960 and was promoted to M1e for the Aki basho. But I don't know the circumstances.