Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Nagoya 2014

[Gurowake 4,016]

Oops, I overlooked that Takekaze even still needs to face Kotoshogiku, so that should be his Day 14 bout. Even tougher then...

My money is on Takayasu for Kotoshogiku on day 14.

Really? Takekaze needs to face Kotoshogiku; someone in the top 16 (well, effectively due to withdraws) in contention for sanyaku I would expect to face all the top-rankers. Goeido is available to face Takaysu, just depriving Goeido of his fight with Tamawashi among the top 16 which seems perfectly reasonable.

--

I really fell flat on my face with that Aoiyama pick, much like Aoiyama does himself too much. Is his training ring perhaps too sticky compared to the dohyo? It seems really odd that he has done so well and yet is prone to having his feet slip out from under him.

[Asashosakari 18,967]

My money is on Takayasu for Kotoshogiku on day 14.

FWIW, like Gurowake I figure they'd rather do Goeido-Takayasu, though my reasoning is exactly the inverse: since Kotoshogiku is in the yusho race himself, he really ought to get the same overall schedule as the yokozuna trio, which means giving him Takekaze. Edited July 24, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asojima 2,873]

FWIW, like Gurowake I figure they'd rather do Goeido-Takayasu, though my reasoning is exactly the inverse: since Kotoshogiku is in the yusho race himself, he really ought to get the same overall schedule as the yokozuna trio, which means giving him Takekaze.

Goeido is set up to start another Ozeki run, and he has a 3 basho win streak going against Takayasu (following a 6 match losing streak). A Takekaze and Kotoshogiku match is a toss-up. Kotoshogiku almost owns Takayasu. I go with a highly motivated Goeido against Takayasu, possibly on day 14.

[Gurowake 4,016]

The kyokai would probably live for a while with one or two permanently kyujo yokozunas if push came to shove. There is only a banzuke need, not a competitive need.

So if the second-to-last Yozeki decides not to compete anymore they can just keep him on the banzuke as kyujo; if it would be due to an Ozeki demotion they can instead not demote him much like in other cases where sanyaku can keep their spot if there's no one available to take their place.

[Asojima 2,873]

The kyokai would probably live for a while with one or two permanently kyujo yokozunas if push came to shove. There is only a banzuke need, not a competitive need.

So if the second-to-last Yozeki decides not to compete anymore they can just keep him on the banzuke as kyujo; if it would be due to an Ozeki demotion they can instead not demote him much like in other cases where sanyaku can keep their spot if there's no one available to take their place.

It will only work with a yokozuna. If a nasty situation is in the offing, he can be "put on hold". An Ozeki will go kadoban and drop like a rock.

Note: Observe the last year and a half of Takanohana's reign.

Edited July 24, 2014 by Asojima

[Gurowake 4,016]

I'm not sure what I'm looking at there; there look to be plenty of Ozeki during that time period.

[Asojima 2,873]

I'm not sure what I'm looking at there; there look to be plenty of Ozeki during that time period.

Look at his string of kyujo's. This is an example of what they COULD do if driven to it. It is not an example of what they DID do.

[Asashosakari 18,967]

My money is on Takayasu for Kotoshogiku on day 14.

(I am not worthy...)

[Jakusotsu 5,874]

Now that I'm in perfect gloating position, I may reveal my line of reasoning: Takayasu is still a valid contender for the yusho, and one golden rule dictates at least one match against Ozeki. This was the very last chance to do so (unless they wanted to skip Kotoshogiku/Goeido altogether - highly unlikely).

Actually, I was quite surprised that Kakuryu didn't meet Takayasu on day 12 already. That Tamawashi matchup was far from necessary.

[Asashosakari 18,967]

Actually, I was quite surprised that Kakuryu didn't meet Takayasu on day 12 already. That Tamawashi matchup was far from necessary.

I suspect the desire to give the same schedule (= the best-ranked 15 opponents available) to all three yokozuna overrides such considerations. After all, they didn't even give Kakuryu a slightly more useful opponent such as Endo or Terunofuji even though Tamawashi was already makekoshi.

[Jakusotsu 5,874]

This, and I suspect they expected Takayasu to implode on his own, given time.

[Asashosakari 18,967]

(Day 13 results and links to video where available)

Capping off a stunning makushita debut tournament, Rikishin beat Masunoumi in decisive fashion, becoming the youngest makushita yusho winner since Kisenosato and the youngest debut winner since Takanohana.

The sandanme yusho decision saw Abiko's win streak end at 20 as he was outwitted by veteran Hienriki who has become a first-time yusho winner at the age of 31. Earlier, the third sandanme contender Takagenji had lost a hard-fought battle against Shiba from jonidan, which also served to set up a do-beya playoff for senshuraku after the intra-jonidan zensho match was won by Shiba's Kise stablemate Takagi in a quick affair. Last not least former high makushita Hamaguchi became the jonokuchi yusho winner with little trouble against jonidan 5-1 opponent Fujiarashi, making it two divisional yusho for Kise-beya this basho.

Ms21e Masunoumi (Chiganoura) 6-1

Ms50e Rikishin (Tatsunami) 7-0

---

Sd21e Abiko (Oitekaze) 6-1

Sd42e Hienriki (Oguruma) 7-0

Sd78w Takagenji (Takanohana) 6-1

---

Jd27w Shiba (Kise) 7-0

Jd53w Takagi (Kise) 7-0

Jd99w Kotokudo (Sadogatake) 6-1

---

Jk18e Hamaguchi (Kise) 7-0

Edited July 25, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 18,967]

Day 13 (results, text-only results):

Goeido has reached double-digits with his victory over Takekaze and has even become a yusho contender thanks to Hakuho's loss against ozeki Kisenosato. The other main contender Kotoshogiku beat Osunaarashi rather easily to get back into the shared lead and hampering the Egyptian's KK hopes.

Earlier on, Yoshikaze eliminated Endo from the competition for the two or three sanyaku slots, keeping his own chances alive. Takayasu beat fellow candidate Terunofuji (giving Takayasu a share of the yusho lead as well), and Myogiryu succeeded against Jokoryu to put both at 9-4.

(o) 10-3 Goeido S Tochiozan 2-6-5 (x)

(x) 3-10 Aminishiki K Aoiyama 5-8 (?)

M1

M2 Yoshikaze 6-7

M3 Osunaarashi 6-7

M4 Takekaze 8-5

M5 Endo 6-7 (x)

8-5 Terunofuji M6 Myogiryu 9-4

M7 Jokoryu 9-4

9-4 Chiyotairyu M8

...

M11 Takayasu 11-2

Takayasu has to contend against Kotoshogiku after all (H2H history 5-1 in favour of the ozeki), while Takekaze receives my initial expectation for his Day 14 opponent, Jokoryu, and Terunofuji has been drawn as the final maegashira opponent for Goeido. In an intriguing elimination bout Yoshikaze and Osunaarashi are also set to do battle.

For a change Day 13 brought safety for not just one, but two maegashira; they're Arawashi who is now KK after four straight wins, and Okinoumi who did so by beating Kagamio. In the other direct matchup Kyokushuho was victorious over Tokushoryu. The rest of the maybe-demotee lineup was a complete washout with losses for Gagamaru, Tokitenku, Wakanosato and Chiyomaru. Veteran Wakanosato is now our first definite demotion.

Ichinojo and Takanoiwa prevailed in their visits to makuuchi (against Wakanosato and Tokitenku respectively), and they now have company by Sadanofuji who secured his kachikoshi. Sotairyu, Tosayutaka and Kotoyuki kept up their chances, with Homarefuji also still in the mix despite his loss to Kotoyuki. Tochinoshin remains a low-ranked wildcard.

(1) 3-10 Tokushoryu M10

M11

M12 Kyokushuho 5-8 (1)

(o) 6-7 Okinoumi M13

(2) 4-9 Kagamio M14

(2) 5-8 Gagamaru M15 Tokitenku 5-8 (2)

(x) 4-9 Wakanosato M16 Chiyomaru 7-6 (1)

(o) 8-5 Arawashi M17 ---

(2) 6-7 Sotairyu J1 Sadanofuji 8-5 (?)

J2

(o) 10-3 Takanoiwa J3 Ichinojo 12-1 (o)

J4 Homarefuji 8-5 (2)

J5 Kotoyuki 8-5 (2)

J6

J7

J8 Tosayutaka 10-3 (2)

...

(?) 11-2 Tochinoshin J12

I won't declare Sadanofuji safe for promotion just yet, but with so many maegashira teetering, he should have a decent chance of going up even if he doesn't add another win to his tally. He can help himself directly as he's set for an exchange bout with Kagamio tomorrow. Among the other demotion candidates Tokushoryu has arguably received the toughest opponent with top maegashira Ikioi.

Unsurprisingly they're keeping the Ichinojo-Tochinoshin match in reserve for senshuraku, and for good measure they've given Ichinojo a highly motivated Day 14 opponent (KK-seeking maegashira Azumaryu) so hopefully we won't see the yusho decided tomorrow already. Tochinoshin for his part will be going against Kotoyuki, not a foregone conclusion at all. Kinda-sorta third yusho contender Takanoiwa faces shin-juryo Daieisho.

Both juryo-makushita bouts were won by the representatives of the lower division. First and foremost that means Yoshiazuma has secured a return to the paid ranks, while Wakanoshima has to go back to a plain mawashi. (And Shibatayama-beya again misses out on having two sekitori, with Sakigake and Wakanoshima trading divisions in back-to-back tournaments.) Kitaharima also collected his 5th win but can't be sure of a juryo return of his own just yet, although losses by Daido, Tenkaiho and Kyokutaisei leave lots of room for further demotions to appear. Last not least Kotoeko achieved KK in his first promotion zone appearance but he's unlikely to figure into the promotion decisions from Ms5.

(2) 4-9 Daido J10 Tenkaiho 4-9 (2)

J11

J12

(x) 4-9 Wakanoshima J13 Kyokutaisei 6-7 (1)

(x) 3-10 Kizenryu J14 Tochihiryu 6-7 (2)

(o) 5-1 Sakigake Ms1

3-3 Higonojo Ms2 Yoshiazuma 5-2 (o)

3-3 Wakakoyu Ms3

(?) 5-2 Kitaharima Ms4 Dewahayate 3-3

4-3 Kotoeko Ms5 Musashiumi 3-3

Ms6

5-1 Tatsu Ms7

As expected it's Higonojo and Wakakoyu for juryo duty tomorrow, going against Tenkaiho and Tochihiryu, while Daido is meeting Seiro (J5e 5-8) and Kyokutaisei faces Akiseyama (J11e 6-7). However, contrary to my assumptions they're not saving up Dewahayate and Musashiumi after all; they will go head to head for their kachikoshi. A bit surprising to me, but maybe they figure if Higonojo and Wakakoyu lose tomorrow there are only two strong promotion candidates anyway, so no need to engineer more demotions.

Edited July 25, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 18,967]

Makuuchi yusho race:

11-2: Y1e Hakuho, Ow Kotoshogiku, M11w Takayasu

10-3: Y2e Kakuryu, Se Goeido

(Rikishi at 9-4 are out of the race due to tomorrow's Kotoshogiku-Takayasu matchup.)

First time since Natsu 2012 that no makuuchi rikishi has 12+ wins after Day 13 - actually nobody even had 11 wins in that tournament, which culminated in Kyokutenho's maegashira yusho.

It's hard to consider anybody other than Hakuho as the favourite here, although it's still an interesting and unexpected situation. (If Takayasu were to become the first Japanese yusho winner in nearly a decade, wouldn't that be kind of awkward?) It's still in Hakuho's own hands, but he can't force an outright yusho as he has already met Kotoshogiku and won't meet Takayasu.

Schedule (assuming no wacky late adjustments to senshuraku):

Day 14: Hakuho-Kakuryu, Kotoshogiku-Takayasu, Goeido-Terunofuji

Day 15: Hakuho-Harumafuji, Kakuryu-Kisenosato, Kotoshogiku-Goeido, Takayasu-?

Goeido and Kakuryu must win tomorrow to stay in the race.

Edited July 25, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Morty 1,483]

Makuuchi yusho race:

11-2: Y1e Hakuho, Ow Kotoshogiku, M11w Takayasu

10-3: Y2e Kakuryu, Se Goeido

(Rikishi at 9-4 are out of the race due to tomorrow's Kotoshogiku-Takayasu matchup.)

First time since Natsu 2012 that no makuuchi rikishi has 12+ wins after Day 13 - actually nobody even had 11 wins in that tournament, which culminated in Kyokutenho's maegashira yusho.

It's hard to consider anybody other than Hakuho as the favourite here, although it's still an interesting and unexpected situation. (If Takayasu were to become the first Japanese yusho winner in nearly a decade, wouldn't that be kind of awkward?) It's still in Hakuho's own hands, but he can't force an outright yusho as he has already met Kotoshogiku and won't meet Takayasu.

Schedule (assuming no wacky late adjustments to senshuraku):

Day 14: Hakuho-Kakuryu, Kotoshogiku-Takayasu, Goeido-Terunofuji

Day 15: Hakuho-Harumafuji, Kakuryu-Kisenosato, Kotoshogiku-Goeido, Takayasu-?

Goeido and Kakuryu must win tomorrow to stay in the race.

Hak has to be the favourite given his general superiority over everybody else, but he also has the hardest run out of anyone, in that he has to fight both other Yokozuna. Takayasu would look to have the easiest in that he only gets one serious opponent and if he can handle Giku then he'd be close to favourite. I'm really pleased Kise knocked off Hak today because it has made it much more interesting:).

[Jejima 1,346]

Makuuchi yusho race:

11-2: Y1e Hakuho, Ow Kotoshogiku, M11w Takayasu

10-3: Y2e Kakuryu, Se Goeido

(Rikishi at 9-4 are out of the race due to tomorrow's Kotoshogiku-Takayasu matchup.)

First time since Natsu 2012 that no makuuchi rikishi has 12+ wins after Day 13 - actually nobody even had 11 wins in that tournament, which culminated in Kyokutenho's maegashira yusho.

It's hard to consider anybody other than Hakuho as the favourite here, although it's still an interesting and unexpected situation. (If Takayasu were to become the first Japanese yusho winner in nearly a decade, wouldn't that be kind of awkward?) It's still in Hakuho's own hands, but he can't force an outright yusho as he has already met Kotoshogiku and won't meet Takayasu.

Schedule (assuming no wacky late adjustments to senshuraku):

Day 14: Hakuho-Kakuryu, Kotoshogiku-Takayasu, Goeido-Terunofuji

Day 15: Hakuho-Harumafuji, Kakuryu-Kisenosato, Kotoshogiku-Goeido, Takayasu-?

Goeido and Kakuryu must win tomorrow to stay in the race.

Back in March 2000, Yokozunas Akebono and Musashimaru did not face each other, due to being matched up with (eventual yusho winner) M14E Takatoriki on days 13 and 14. It is not quite the same situation, being senshuraku, but I could see a small possibility of the Hak vs Harry match being cancelled in favour of an exciting Hak vs Takayasu encounter. If Takayasu had one more win at this stage (and so was the sole leader), I think that this match-up would be more likely....

[Asashosakari 18,967]

Back in March 2000, Yokozunas Akebono and Musashimaru did not face each other, due to being matched up with (eventual yusho winner) M14E Takatoriki on days 13 and 14. It is not quite the same situation, being senshuraku, but I could see a small possibility of the Hak vs Harry match being cancelled in favour of an exciting Hak vs Takayasu encounter. If Takayasu had one more win at this stage (and so was the sole leader), I think that this match-up would be more likely....

If Kakuryu beats Hakuho tomorrow, scrapping Kakuryu-Kisenosato in favour of Kakuryu-Takayasu would make sense, too. Though I doubt they'll bother to wait announcing the final day's schedule, they'll probably just trust that Giku does his job tomorrow.

[I am the Yokozuna 188]

But they decide the bouts long before the results of the Day 14 are known. The next day bouts are then read right before makiuchi proceeds for the day. So, day 15 would be known before day 14 has finished.

Anyhows, if Takayasu is to win, how long before he would be considered as the half-Japanese rikishi and so not yet a pure Japanese win that is awaited for 8 years so far? (Sarcasm)

[Asashosakari 18,967]

But they decide the bouts long before the results of the Day 14 are known. The next day bouts are then read right before makiuchi proceeds for the day. So, day 15 would be known before day 14 has finished.

They typically don't finalize the Day 15 schedule until the first few Day 14 makuuchi bouts have taken place, in order to facilitate appropriate matchups for lower-ranked rikishi on 7-7 or in danger of demotion. But yes, that doesn't affect the Day 15 high-ranker matchups.

[Fukurou 534]

Day 13 (results, text-only results):

(1) 3-10 Tokushoryu M10

M11

M12 Kyokushuho 5-8 (1)

(o) 6-7 Okinoumi M13

(2) 4-9 Kagamio M14

(2) 5-8 Gagamaru M15 Tokitenku 5-8 (2)

(x) 4-9 Wakanosato M16 Chiyomaru 7-6 (1)

(1) 7-6 Arawashi M17 ---

(2) 6-7 Sotairyu J1 Sadanofuji 8-5 (?)

J2

(o) 10-3 Takanoiwa J3 Ichinojo 12-1 (o)

J4 Homarefuji 8-5 (2)

J5 Kotoyuki 8-5 (2)

J6

J7

J8 Tosayutaka 10-3 (2)

...

(?) 11-2 Tochinoshin J12

I won't declare Sadanofuji safe for promotion just yet, but with so many maegashira teetering, he should have a decent chance of going up even if he doesn't add another win to his tally. He can help himself directly as he's set for an exchange bout with Kagamio tomorrow. Among the other demotion candidates Tokushoryu has arguably received the toughest opponent with top maegashira Ikioi.

Unsurprisingly they're keeping the Ichinojo-Tochinoshin match in reserve for senshuraku, and for good measure they've given Ichinojo a highly motivated Day 14 opponent (KK-seeking maegashira Azumaryu) so hopefully we won't see the yusho decided tomorrow already. Tochinoshin for his part will be going against Kotoyuki, not a foregone conclusion at all. Kinda-sorta third yusho contender Takanoiwa faces shin-juryo Daieisho.

With that (?) next to his name, and given the state of affairs in Makuuchi, how do the odds look for a Tochinoshin promotion to the bottom of Makuuchi? Would it pretty much take a Yusho?

[Asashosakari 18,967]

With that (?) next to his name, and given the state of affairs in Makuuchi, how do the odds look for a Tochinoshin promotion to the bottom of Makuuchi? Would it pretty much take a Yusho?

I don't think winning the yusho is particularly important, but 13 wins are a must. To do that he needs to beat Ichinojo anyway, which would give him at minimum a yusho playoff. Beyond that it's just a matter of enough spots opening up (plus some banzuke committee goodwill) - but he's behind Sadanofuji, Takanoiwa and Ichinojo already, so it would definitely help if Sotairyu/Homarefuji/Kotoyuki/Tosayutaka all pick up at least one more loss.

---

I've now corrected Arawashi from 7-6 to 8-5 in the hoshitori, BTW. The accompanying text had him correctly as winning today, but somehow the table snuck through with an error I had included initially. (I think I mixed up Azumaryu and Arawashi while updating the scores.)

Edited July 25, 2014 by Asashosakari

[lackmaker 434]

If Myogiryu loses tomorrow who is favourite for the sekiwake rank?

[Asashosakari 18,967]

Day 14 (results, text-only results):

The makuuchi yusho race still has four potential winners after Hakuho and Kotoshogiku fulfilled their role as favourites against Kakuryu and Takayasu respectively. Yokozuna Kakuryu is out of the race after that, while Takayasu can still hope to catch back up to the two winners again. Goeido also still trails Hak and Giku after winning his bout with Terunofuji.

Terunofuji's chances for a sanyaku debut should be over with that loss as he's now definitely behind Myogiryu and Jokoryu and almost certainly also behind Takekaze. The same goes for Chiyotairyu who lost a quick bout to bottom-ranked Arawashi. Elsewhere on the torikumi Osunaarashi prevailed in the MK-avoider bout against Yoshikaze, Takekaze lost to Jokoryu after a knockout-ish tachiai, Myogiryu was successful against Sokokurai, and Aoiyama improved to 6-8 to maintain his teensy-tiny hopes of somehow sticking in sanyaku with 7 wins.

(o) 11-3 Goeido S Tochiozan 2-6-6 (x)

(x) 3-11 Aminishiki K Aoiyama 6-8 (?)

M1

M2 Yoshikaze 6-8 (x)

M3 Osunaarashi 7-7

M4 Takekaze 8-6

M5

(x) 8-6 Terunofuji M6 Myogiryu 10-4

M7 Jokoryu 10-4

(x) 9-5 Chiyotairyu M8

...

M11 Takayasu 11-3

Of course, it's still much more likely that Aoiyama gets demoted no matter what, even if they have to dig deep for a replacement, but after several weird sanyaku decisions of late I'm not willing to take any chances. ;-) To answer the question posed by lackmaker above: I have no idea. Excepting Takayasu, any of the remaining candidates could conceivably still grab the sekiwake slot. True enough though, if Myogiryu wins it's going to be his slot.

The schedule committee has lucked into a good lineup for tomorrow, as they've put Myogiryu against Osunaarashi and Jokoryu against Yoshikaze. (This would be rather suboptimal if Yoshikaze had beaten Osunaarashi today and he was still in the running for sanyaku instead of the Egyptian...) Takayasu and Takekaze will also face off, and Aoiyama receives an interesting final opponent in 7-7 Endo.

Gagamaru became the second demotee to juryo today, and based on his lackluster performances of the past 12 months that's a well-deserved wakeup call for the big Georgian. Conversely, Chiyomaru and Kyokushuho are now safe. Kagamio and Tokitenku were also victorious and need one more win by the numbers, same as Tokushoryu who was unsurprisingly defeated by Ikioi for his 4th straight loss.

Kagamio's win was at the expense of Sadanofuji whose promotion hopes took an additional dent from Sotairyu's success against Asahisho, which put the Tokitsukaze speedster into position to sneak ahead of Sadanofuji in the promotion queue tomorrow. Tosayutaka kept himself in the promotion discussion as well, beating recent maegashira Fujiazuma (who looks very ordinary now). On the other hand, Homarefuji and Kotoyuki exited the race with losses today, the latter losing to Tochinoshin which guaranteed the juryo yusho decision would remain open to senshuraku. Tochinoshin did fail to catch up to leading Ichinojo whose later victory in makuuchi was quite painful for opponent Azumaryu.

(1) 3-11 Tokushoryu M10

M11

M12 Kyokushuho 6-8 (o)

M13

(1) 5-9 Kagamio M14

(x) 5-9 Gagamaru M15 Tokitenku 6-8 (1)

(x) 5-9 Wakanosato M16 Chiyomaru 8-6 (o)

M17 ---

(1) 7-7 Sotairyu J1 Sadanofuji 8-6 (?)

J2

(o) 11-3 Takanoiwa J3 Ichinojo 13-1 (o)

J4 Homarefuji 8-6 (x)

J5 Kotoyuki 8-6 (x)

J6

J7

J8 Tosayutaka 11-3 (1)

...

(?) 12-2 Tochinoshin J12

Tokushoryu, Kagamio and Tokitenku have one big problem: There are so many juryo rikishi knocking on the door loudly, they might well get demoted even if they win tomorrow. However, depending on the mood of the banzuke committee that could also go the other way, with e.g. Sadanofuji stuck in juryo with 8 wins or Tosayutaka with 12. Lots of possibilities for tomorrow.

In any case it's another difficult matchup for Tokushoryu against Chiyootori. Kagamio faces a high-ranked opponent in Tamawashi as well, while Tokitenku enters a veteran matchup against Kyokutenho. Down in juryo it's Tosayutaka against Amuru who already ended Homarefuji's hopes today. (More about Sotairyu's and Sadanofuji's opponents further down.) Ichinojo and Tochinoshin are of course matched up for the quasi-yusho decider; the big Georgian veteran will have to beat the even bigger Mongolian youngster twice to take the yusho, Ichinojo just needs to win the first or (if taking place) second bout.

Today's two juryo visitors from makushita had a split decision, with Wakakoyu getting his kachikoshi against Tochihiryu and Higonojo losing a hard-fought bout to Tenkaiho. The main beneficiary of that combination of results was Kitaharima who grabs the open slot created by Tochihiryu's MK-clinching loss. Wakakoyu is 4th in the queue and can't be sure of a juryo return yet; Tenkaiho is still able to save himself after today's win, and so is Daido who was victorious against Seiro. Kyokutaisei also won and should be safe altogether. Down in makushita the KK decider went in Dewahayate's favour while Musashiumi scores the unfortunate last-minute MK.

(1) 5-9 Daido J10 Tenkaiho 5-9 (1)

J11

J12

(x) 4-10 Wakanoshima J13 Kyokutaisei 7-7 (o)

(x) 3-11 Kizenryu J14 Tochihiryu 6-8 (x)

(o) 5-1 Sakigake Ms1

(x) 3-4 Higonojo Ms2 Yoshiazuma 5-2 (o)

(?) 4-3 Wakakoyu Ms3

(o) 5-2 Kitaharima Ms4 Dewahayate 4-3 (?)

4-3 Kotoeko Ms5 Musashiumi 3-4 (x)

Ms6

5-1 Tatsu Ms7

In theory they could decide to drop Kyokutaisei for Wakakoyu if he finishes 7-8 and there's no other 4th demotee (or likewise J11w Chiyonokuni with 6-9), but 4-3 from Ms3 is unlikely to be strong enough to convince the committee to do an overdemotion. So Wakakoyu's fate comes down to the final bouts of Daido and Tenkaiho, and the committee has created an especially devious schedule for these two by putting them against the promotion-seeking J1 pair Sotairyu and Sadanofuji. Certainly no lack of motivation in these two matchups! Should both Daido and Tenkaiho lose, even Dewahayate may still have an unexpected juryo promotion, although it's probably more likely that Daido gets a lucky reprieve in that scenario. (Or for an even more wacky variation, they could decide to promote Tatsu if he wins his 6th tomorrow.)

Edited July 26, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 4,016]

Going by the numbers, Sekiwake goes to Myogiryu if he wins, then Jokoryu if he wins, then Takakaze if he wins, and then it's a tossup between Osunaarashi (who faces Myogiryu) and Takayasu (who faces Takekaze). Going by historical data, 8-7 from M3 has made Sekiwake a couple times and Komusubi many times, while only one 12-3 from M11 has even made Komusubi, so I'd give it to Osunaarashi. As for the sanyaku slots in total, I'd give one to Jokoryu and one each to the winners of Osunaarashi v. Myogiryu and Takayasu v. Takekaze.

Edited July 26, 2014 by Gurowake

[Gurowake 4,016]

As to Tatsu, 6-1 from ms7 I would ordinarily say would be good enough, about as good as a 5-2 from ms4 which you've said is in, and certainly better than a 4-3 from ms3.

If Daido, Tenkaiho, and Tatsu all lose, they also could conceivably take Iwasaki (Tatsu's opponent) as a 6-1 from ms9, but Dewayahate might be a better choice.

Edited July 26, 2014 by Gurowake