Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Natsu 2014

[Gurowake 3,915]

I really don't think the guys in charge really want to give Goeido yet another pass at demotion with an MK; they may not wanted to have the second time it happened, but in that case there wasn't anything even resembling a viable candidate. The first time his 7 wins came with only 6 losses in the ring, so without someone who was by-the-numbers promotable in that basho it was reasonable to let him keep it even if there were somewhat reasonable candidates, although even in that case they were much worse than the ones we already have now.

Looking at the last time a Sekiwake before Goeido kept their rank with 7 wins, we have Tochizauma in Kyushu 1997. That tournament had all sanyaku with MKs even with 3 Sekiwake; the other two had 5 and 6 wins and clearly needed demotion. The best candidates were 8-7 at m3w and m4e, and 11-4 at m6e, the last one of those getting the definitely free Sekiwake slot and the former two became Komusubi. Then in Natsu 1997, we had a 7-5-3 Kaio at S1e demoted in favor of a 8-7 from m1e, while 11-4 from m5w grabbed Komusubi as the next best record. So that suggests that Aoiyama winning would be eligible for the slot, although it's inconclusive whether Ikioi might get it with a loss. Looking back to every other instance since 1980 there's nothing conclusive; in most cases there's a clear viable candidate and in one other case that the 7-8 Sekiwake got to stay there's clearly nobody worthy of it.

So it's hard to say, and the people in charge have probably changed so much since any of those that they may have different ideas anyway. I think it's reasonable that 11 wins from m5 is good enough for Sekiwake, even if he did lose to the guy he's replacing. But that might just be the point the banzuke makers look to; if Ikioi couldn't beat either incumbent why should he get their place? I also think Aminishiki is reasonable even with 9 wins, and it wouldn't be his first time there. Aoiyama with 8 wins might also be reasonable given he beat both Ozeki.

And then there's also the issue that if all these guys win, we might have 3 Komusubi. That'll be a real tester for GTB.

Edited May 24, 2014 by Gurowake

[Asashosakari 18,784]

Is it now possible for Goeido to retain a sekiwake spot if both Ikioi and Aminishiki lose on senshuraku?

My speculation on that: If Ikioi, Aminishiki and Aoiyama all lose tomorrow, Goeido might get lucky with 7 wins...maybe also if only Ikioi wins. An Aoiyama or Aminishiki win should be enough to send him down. Both have been in sanyaku before and their records would be good enough that something like two years ago shouldn't be happening again.

[ryafuji 807]

Didn't someone recently teach me that rikishi who have faced a Yokozuna in a given basho won't get demoted?

It has happened just once, to Onishiki in January 1983. But that was a rather odd set of circumstances, as explained here.

[Jaak 7]

Is it now possible for Goeido to retain a sekiwake spot if both Ikioi and Aminishiki lose on senshuraku?

If Goeido wins tomorrow he will definitely stay at Sekiwake because he cannot be demoted with a kachi koshi

Can Goeido be still demoted with 8:7, if it´s just to West? Because S1w has 10:5 against that.

Also, who should be komusubis?

M1e 8:7 cannot be promoted anywhere else

there is M3e 10:5

and M5w 11:4

but 2 demoted komusubi. So which of them is better komusubi, Aminishiki or Ikioi? And is the other really that impressive as to be entitled to haridashi?

[Chiyozakura 130]

Is it now possible for Goeido to retain a sekiwake spot if both Ikioi and Aminishiki lose on senshuraku?

If Goeido wins tomorrow he will definitely stay at Sekiwake because he cannot be demoted with a kachi koshi

Can Goeido be still demoted with 8:7, if it´s just to West? Because S1w has 10:5 against that.

Also, who should be komusubis?

M1e 8:7 cannot be promoted anywhere else

there is M3e 10:5

and M5w 11:4

but 2 demoted komusubi. So which of them is better komusubi, Aminishiki or Ikioi? And is the other really that impressive as to be entitled to haridashi?

A switch from East to West in the Sanyaku ranks is not considered a demotion. It is safe to say that Tochiozan will be Sekiwake East and Goeido Sekiwake West. For the Komusubi ranks it is not so clear. Theoretically Aoiyama could stay at Maegashira #1 but that is very unlikely. I think Aoiyama and Aminishiki will be Komusubi and Ikioi will only move to Maegashira #1. He could be promoted as a third Komusubi but that would not be considered a haridashi as this has been changed some time in the 90's. Up to then additional Sanyake rikishi were attached at the sides of the banzuke, these days you simply have two Komusubi back to back on one side of the banzuke.

[shumitto 418]

The banzuke-makers have been reluctant to have more than 2 rikishi at either Sekiwake or Komusubi, and have allowed so only when there was no other possible choice. Back in March, 2008 Kokkai enjoyed what would be the best basho in his whole career with a solid 12-3 jun-yusho record from M5w and had to contend himself with the M1e rank. Baruto with the very same record from M7e landed beside the Georgian. I don't know why would they make an exception for Ikioi, though I would appreciate if they did.

Aoiyama and the indefatigable Aminishiki at Komusubi plus the current Sekiwake duo make a formidable quartet to put pressure on the Ozeki and Yokozuna IMO.

Edited May 25, 2014 by shumitto

[Asashosakari 18,784]

Day 15:

In a dohyo-based event causing shock and awe Goeido overcame incredible odds to achieve the last-minute kachikoshi (ahem), so the question of who's going to be the second sekiwake is moot now. He'll still have to accept moving over to the West side for the first time in five basho though.

The komusubi race was decided in favour of Aoiyama and Aminishiki who both added senshuraku wins to their tallies, while Ikioi was beaten by sekiwake Tochiozan. It's really not a tough decision either - Aminishiki is ahead of Ikioi on the straight numbers now, and he's got the advantage of having faced the entire joi-jin. As others have pointed out above an extra komusubi slot is hard to come by these days; 11 wins from M5 really shouldn't be making the cut. Unless they're really desperate to expand the sanyaku ranks past 9 slots (and I don't see why they would) that's Ikioi getting stuck at the M1e rank for next time.

8-7 Goeido S Tochiozan 10-5

(x) 6-9 Yoshikaze K Chiyootori 5-10 (x)

(o) 8-7 Aoiyama M1

M2

(o) 10-5 Aminishiki M3

M4

M5 Ikioi 11-4 (x)

Struggling Takanoiwa and Masunoyama closed out the tournament with another loss each, so their chances of somehow getting to stay are nil now. Not that it really matters as Wakanosato was successful in making up the necessary numbers in the end to become the 3rd promotee. Sotairyu also won but will most likely be stuck in juryo...I've added the closest "maybe" demotee to the table just in case (it's Arawashi after dropping to MK today), but I don't see a compelling reason to exchange these two.

(x) 3-12 Takanoiwa M12

(x) 4-11 Masunoyama M13

M14

M15

(?) 7-8 Arawashi M16 Chiyonokuni 0-2-13(x)

M17 ---

(o) 10-5 Azumaryu J1

(?) 8-7 Sotairyu J2 Kagamio 11-4 (o)

J3 Wakanosato 9-6 (o)

J4 Tamaasuka 8-7 (x)

(x) 9-6 Sadanofuji J5

Last not least it's a well-deserved return to juryo for Kizenryu who won the promotion playoff against Tochihiryu today. The 5th demotee has turned out to be Wakakoyu after all "thanks" to a loss against Tenkaiho. Sakigake beat Akiseyama for his 6th win and is very much on the bubble now - I suspect he'd have been safe if the makushita bout had gone the other way to leave lower-ranked Kizenryu as the 4-3 (especially as that would have meant the same record for both Ms4's), but he could well be safe even in the comparison with Tochihiryu. I dunno, really. My guess: Tochihiryu up, Sakigake down. But that's based on little more than my impression that new sole shimpan-bucho Isegahama likes things to be dynamic. The committee as a whole might have something else in mind.

(x) 5-10 Higonojo J11 Wakakoyu 5-10 (x)

(?) 6-9 Sakigake J12

J13 Yoshiazuma 6-9 (x)

(x) 2-13 Daikiho J14 Takanoyama 4-11 (x)

Ms1 Wakanoshima 5-2 (o)

(o) 6-1 Daieisho Ms2

(?) 4-3 Tochihiryu Ms3 Kyokutaisei 5-2 (o)

(o) 5-2 Kizenryu Ms4 Horyuyama 4-3

Ms5

Ms6 Tochinoshin 7-0 (o)

I wonder if that's going to be it for Wakakoyu. He doesn't look like he's completely over the cliff yet so a sekitori return is definitely possible, but at 30 years of age and kabu eligibility assured I'm not sure he's going to bother for long. The biggest issue might be that he's in a stable that's part of Takanohana's merry little band and I do wonder how much access to kabu shares they have, especially now that loans are no longer a go.

In happier news it's a triple juryo debut for Wakanoshima (himself almost 30 already), top prospect Daieisho and my adoptee Kyokutaisei. Well done, kid. ;-) I must admit I didn't think he'd do it that quickly, it's been less than two years since he was only at mid-makushita level. (On a trivia side note, that'll be the first time since Kyushu 2004 that there are 3+ debutants and none of them are of collegiate or foreign origin.)

Edit: Oh yeah, and the two sekitori yusho were won by Hakuho and Ichinojo, but I imagine that news has reached everyone by now. :-P

Edited May 25, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Gurowake 3,915]

Sotairyu also won but will most likely be stuck in juryo...I've added the closest "maybe" demotee to the table just in case (it's Arawashi after dropping to MK today), but I don't see a compelling reason to exchange these two.

Was there a compelling reason to promote Sadanoumi and demote Azumaryu last time? In that case they might have just been stupid, looked at his record, didn't see a 17e yet and decided to demote him regardless of who it meant promoting and the fact that there was going to be a 17e, but especially after having these reports it sounds like they know more about what they're doing than to have done that. I can definitely understand if they swap these two, taking the view that the 17e slot shouldn't really be available and they'll give it to someone in Juryo ahead of someone being demoted onto it.

[Asashosakari 18,784]

Was there a compelling reason to promote Sadanoumi and demote Azumaryu last time?

Not really. :-) If you stick around the sumo games you'll come to find that I'm a proponent of very dynamic banzuke-making, and even I wouldn't have made that exchange if it was my call. That said, if their logic was that Azumaryu was demotable by the numbers (ranked inside the bottom 3 ranks/6 spots, finished only 6-9) and therefore he needed to be dropped, I'd actually support that. It's always been quite awkward to me to see a rikishi rewarded or punished for something he has absolutely no control over (a change in the size of sanyaku). But then that's one of the many quirks of the banzuke one just has to accept for what it is.

My GTB entry will almost certainly include Arawashi in the final spot, but that doesn't count for much. If there's one thing I've learned from the collaborative banzuke-making for Bench Sumo, it's that the process can come up with rather unexpected results. And that's with just 3 people, not the 23 involved in the real thing.

[Asameshimae 220]

He could be promoted as a third Komusubi but that would not be considered a haridashi as this has been changed some time in the 90's. Up to then additional Sanyake rikishi were attached at the sides of the banzuke, these days you simply have two Komusubi back to back on one side of the banzuke.

I agree we shouldn't bandy around the term haridashi too much. It is does seem an easy Japanese term for an extra slot at rank that doesn't usually have extra slots, and is especially applied to junior sanyaku. However, it is misleading as it really does literally mean the overhang on a printed banzuke that used to be done to keep the banzuke looking balanced. A good example of this is Akebono http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=199411in his time as the sole yokozuna. He was haridashi to keep the banzuke from looking unbalanced on paper, but it would be a stretch to call him an extra-slot.

I am curious if Japanese use the term in this same way.

[Jaak 7]

Track record of K2 creations:

Aminishiki 2006.09 M3w 11:4

Roho 2006.09 M1e 9:6

Takatoriki 2000.03 M14e 13:2Y

Akinoshima 1999.01 M3e 11:4

Kaio 1999.01 M1e 9:6

Kotonishiki 1998.11 M12w 14:1Y

Kotonowaka 1998.09 M2e 9:6

Tochiazuma 1997.05 M6e 11:4

On example of Tochiazuma, creating K2 for 11:4 result at M5w would not be unprecedented.

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

Track record of K2 creations:

Aminishiki 2006.09 M3w 11:4

Roho 2006.09 M1e 9:6

Takatoriki 2000.03 M14e 13:2Y

Akinoshima 1999.01 M3e 11:4

Kaio 1999.01 M1e 9:6

Kotonishiki 1998.11 M12w 14:1Y

Kotonowaka 1998.09 M2e 9:6

Tochiazuma 1997.05 M6e 11:4

On example of Tochiazuma, creating K2 for 11:4 result at M5w would not be unprecedented.

Not unprecedented but awfully long ago. How about a table of comparable K2-NON-creations?

[Jaak 7]

Track record of K2 creations:

Aminishiki 2006.09 M3w 11:4

Roho 2006.09 M1e 9:6

Takatoriki 2000.03 M14e 13:2Y

Akinoshima 1999.01 M3e 11:4

Kaio 1999.01 M1e 9:6

Kotonishiki 1998.11 M12w 14:1Y

Kotonowaka 1998.09 M2e 9:6

Tochiazuma 1997.05 M6e 11:4

On example of Tochiazuma, creating K2 for 11:4 result at M5w would not be unprecedented.

Not unprecedented but awfully long ago. How about a table of comparable K2-NON-creations?

Goeido 2011.01 M5e 11:4

Toyonoshima 2009.11 M5e 11:4

Homasho 2007.03 M5e 11:4

Mutsuarashi 1969.07 M5w 11:4

Dejima 2006.11 M3w 10:5

Kotoshogiku 2006.11 M2e 10:5

Hajimayama 1955.05 M3e 10:5

[Chinonofuji 35]

Track record of K2 creations:

Aminishiki 2006.09 M3w 11:4

Roho 2006.09 M1e 9:6

Takatoriki 2000.03 M14e 13:2Y

Akinoshima 1999.01 M3e 11:4

Kaio 1999.01 M1e 9:6

Kotonishiki 1998.11 M12w 14:1Y

Kotonowaka 1998.09 M2e 9:6

Tochiazuma 1997.05 M6e 11:4

On example of Tochiazuma, creating K2 for 11:4 result at M5w would not be unprecedented.

Not unprecedented but awfully long ago. How about a table of comparable K2-NON-creations?

Goeido 2011.01 M5e 11:4

Toyonoshima 2009.11 M5e 11:4

Homasho 2007.03 M5e 11:4

Mutsuarashi 1969.07 M5w 11:4

Dejima 2006.11 M3w 10:5

Kotoshogiku 2006.11 M2e 10:5

Hajimayama 1955.05 M3e 10:5

Did these 7 all end up at M1e?

[Fukurou 534]

Day 15:

(x) 5-10 Higonojo J11 Wakakoyu 5-10 (x)

(?) 6-9 Sakigake J12

J13 Yoshiazuma 6-9 (x)

(x) 2-13 Daikiho J14 Takanoyama 4-11 (x)

Ms1 Wakanoshima 5-2 (o)

(o) 6-1 Daieisho Ms2

(?) 4-3 Tochihiryu Ms3 Kyokutaisei 5-2 (o)

(o) 5-2 Kizenryu Ms4 Horyuyama 4-3

Ms5

Ms6 Tochinoshin 7-0 (o)

Moving down the banzuke, what do you guys think about Tochinoshin's prospects for moving up to Juryo for July. Is he too far down, even with a 7-0 yusho in his favor?

[kuroimori 1,634]

Day 15:

(x) 5-10 Higonojo J11 Wakakoyu 5-10 (x)

(?) 6-9 Sakigake J12

J13 Yoshiazuma 6-9 (x)

(x) 2-13 Daikiho J14 Takanoyama 4-11 (x)

Ms1 Wakanoshima 5-2 (o)

(o) 6-1 Daieisho Ms2

(?) 4-3 Tochihiryu Ms3 Kyokutaisei 5-2 (o)

(o) 5-2 Kizenryu Ms4 Horyuyama 4-3

Ms5

Ms6 Tochinoshin 7-0 (o)

Moving down the banzuke, what do you guys think about Tochinoshin's prospects for moving up to Juryo for July. Is he too far down, even with a 7-0 yusho in his favor?

Tochinoshin is a shoe-in for Juryo as a 7-0 score (Yusho or Douten) from as low as Ms15 automatically qualifies for a Juryo spot.

The "(o)" mark after his name & result means it's a done deal.

We should have confirmation any minute, when the NSK announces the Juryo promotees.

[Jaak 7]

Track record of K2 creations:

Aminishiki 2006.09 M3w 11:4

Roho 2006.09 M1e 9:6

Takatoriki 2000.03 M14e 13:2Y

Akinoshima 1999.01 M3e 11:4

Kaio 1999.01 M1e 9:6

Kotonishiki 1998.11 M12w 14:1Y

Kotonowaka 1998.09 M2e 9:6

Tochiazuma 1997.05 M6e 11:4

On example of Tochiazuma, creating K2 for 11:4 result at M5w would not be unprecedented.

Not unprecedented but awfully long ago. How about a table of comparable K2-NON-creations?

Goeido 2011.01 M5e 11:4

Toyonoshima 2009.11 M5e 11:4

Homasho 2007.03 M5e 11:4

Mutsuarashi 1969.07 M5w 11:4

Dejima 2006.11 M3w 10:5

Kotoshogiku 2006.11 M2e 10:5

Hajimayama 1955.05 M3e 10:5

Did these 7 all end up at M1e?

No, Dejima got M1w.

[torquato 1,075]

I dunno, really. My guess: Tochihiryu up, Sakigake down.

You were absolutely right. Well done.