Natsu 2014 discussion thread **probable spoilers**

[Asashosakari 17,282]

I half-suspect it won't matter because Kise's bout against Kakuryu has "dumb loss" written all over it.

You suspected wrong. :-P

Indeed, and I'm happy I was wrong...good showing from Kise today.

[ryafuji 788]

I'm not really surprised by Kakuryu's result this basho. In his last 10 basho he went:

9-6

8-7

8-7

10-5

10-5

9-6

9-6

14-1

14-1

9-6

Just looking at his record, you can see that 9-6's are a lot more likely coming from him than a 14-1. I just thought he benefited from some recent weak fields and various injury issues with Harumafuji and Hakuho. I'm still against promoting someone without two straight basho wins and I'm going to stick by that.

You don't fluke two consecutive 14-1s because of the weakness of others. Give him some credit. He stood up to the pressure of pulling out that second 14-1, knowing that a yusho was essential, way better than a certain other yokozuna candidate did recently. And the promotion standard has always been two consecutive championships or the equivalent, which he met. To me a 14-1D 14-1Y is more impresssive than Musashimaru's two 13-2 yushos or Wakanohana's 14-1 and 12-3.

[Asameshimae 220]

This has probably been said, but yokozuna don't usually do very well their first basho at that rank. You only have to look back at Harumafuji to see that. After two 15-0 tournaments to take yokozuna, he got a 9-6. He followed this with another 15-0 yusho. I am not saying Kakuryu will pull off a 15-0 yusho, but the guy deserves a break, at least this time around. I suspect there is a lot of added pressure with getting the dohyo iri right (even if he's had umpteen chances to perfect it by now) and all the other responsibilities that come with being a yokozuna. Quite distracting I am sure.

[bettega 388]

I find the various compiracy teories very amusing. The "Mongolian Conspiracy", where they help each other is very nice (see, Ichinojo! The next Yokozuna!) (Laughing...)

In fact was a very interesting basho - Kise was very good, Hak showed some signs that his dominance is fading (just eight or 9 more yushoi and he'll be finished as a rikishi!). I liked Ikioi and Aminishiki performances too. A pity that Kaisei couldn't stop Aoyiama from sanyaku, leaving Ikioi in M1.

Endo was somewhat disappointing (again) and Osuna we'll be in meatgrinder next basho, a interesting thing.

Edited May 25, 2014 by bettega

[dingo 801]

I'm not really surprised by Kakuryu's result this basho. In his last 10 basho he went:

9-6

8-7

8-7

10-5

10-5

9-6

9-6

14-1

14-1

9-6

Just looking at his record, you can see that 9-6's are a lot more likely coming from him than a 14-1. I just thought he benefited from some recent weak fields and various injury issues with Harumafuji and Hakuho. I'm still against promoting someone without two straight basho wins and I'm going to stick by that.

You don't fluke two consecutive 14-1s because of the weakness of others. Give him some credit. He stood up to the pressure of pulling out that second 14-1, knowing that a yusho was essential, way better than a certain other yokozuna candidate did recently. And the promotion standard has always been two consecutive championships or the equivalent, which he met. To me a 14-1D 14-1Y is more impresssive than Musashimaru's two 13-2 yushos or Wakanohana's 14-1 and 12-3.

A yusho and a jun-yusho more impressive than 2 back-to-back yusho? You've got to be kidding.

Yokozuna Kakuryu has exactly one yusho to his name and until we see anything else, any talk of his future exploits is just pure speculation. In fact, one could also argue that his promotion was a lucky combination of an injury-ridden banzuke, uninspired opposition and being "in the zone", which always happens to most athletes in any field of sports. He could've been 8-7 this basho if it were not for Goeido's fingers in his mage while he was tumbling down to the dohyo...

[Asameshimae 220]

I found it quite telling that even with the limits placed on the number of foreign-born rikishi that that a four man juryo playoff in involved three foreigners, all Mongolians to boot.

Heck, we are lucky that at least the two guys left at ozeki are Japanese or the Japanese audience might just give up on sumo completely. Having said that I don't see much more longevity in either of out homegrown ozeki.

[bettega 388]

I found it quite telling that even with the limits placed on the number of foreign-born rikishi that that a four man juryo playoff in involved three foreigners, all Mongolians to boot.

Heck, we are lucky that at least the two guys left at ozeki are Japanese or the Japanese audience might just give up on sumo completely. Having said that I don't see much more longevity in either of out homegrown ozeki.

Kise seems strong (at least physically strong). Giku... well... I cheered for him last basho but now, teorically unhurt, he seemed worn.

[Asameshimae 220]

I was thinking yesterday watching Giku, when was the last time I saw a good gaburi née hug and chug out of him?

Admittedly, I was a bit busy this basho and did a lot more results checking than I did actual sumo watching.

Edited May 25, 2014 by Asanomeshi

[yorikiried by fate 1,842]

As Senior Conspiracy Proponent of Recently Semi-Adamant Conviction I have to throw in my two yen (well, I wouldn't, but all the nagging strains my lethargy):

It was Hak's turn and Harumafuji knew it.

JapYusho is off the agenda as long as Maegashira stardust triggers the masses' extasy.

A Mongol Trading Federation is hardly news. Re: Various "epic" yusho deciders between Hakuho and The Man.

You are being watched.

Relentlessly.

[Asashosakari 17,282]

A yusho and a jun-yusho more impressive than 2 back-to-back yusho? You've got to be kidding.

I don't know if ryafuji was kidding, but I'm definitely not when I say that he's 100% right. Edited May 25, 2014 by Asashosakari

[ryafuji 788]

I'm not really surprised by Kakuryu's result this basho. In his last 10 basho he went:

9-6

8-7

8-7

10-5

10-5

9-6

9-6

14-1

14-1

9-6

Just looking at his record, you can see that 9-6's are a lot more likely coming from him than a 14-1. I just thought he benefited from some recent weak fields and various injury issues with Harumafuji and Hakuho. I'm still against promoting someone without two straight basho wins and I'm going to stick by that.

You don't fluke two consecutive 14-1s because of the weakness of others. Give him some credit. He stood up to the pressure of pulling out that second 14-1, knowing that a yusho was essential, way better than a certain other yokozuna candidate did recently. And the promotion standard has always been two consecutive championships or the equivalent, which he met. To me a 14-1D 14-1Y is more impresssive than Musashimaru's two 13-2 yushos or Wakanohana's 14-1 and 12-3.

A yusho and a jun-yusho more impressive than 2 back-to-back yusho? You've got to be kidding.

Yokozuna Kakuryu has exactly one yusho to his name and until we see anything else, any talk of his future exploits is just pure speculation. In fact, one could also argue that his promotion was a lucky combination of an injury-ridden banzuke, uninspired opposition and being "in the zone", which always happens to most athletes in any field of sports. He could've been 8-7 this basho if it were not for Goeido's fingers in his mage while he was tumbling down to the dohyo...

One could argue that, but it would be complete nonsense. "An injury-ridden banzuke"? Harumafuji and (at a stretch) Myogiryu in January, and well, that's about it. "Uninspired opposition"? Totally subjective. And being "in the zone" is not something any old journeyman can do at will. As for his 9-6, most yokozuna fail to do well in their debut, due to the circus surrounding them and lack of training time.

[Asashosakari 17,282]

One could argue that, but it would be complete nonsense. "An injury-ridden banzuke"? Harumafuji and (at a stretch) Myogiryu in January, and well, that's about it.

Yup. And sheesh, before people actually hold "injury issues" against Kakuryu's tsuna run, they really should educate themselves about how much some of the two-yusho guys profited from the same. It's not 1997 anymore, the data is easily available for anyone who cares to look. (Well, there's the rub...) Edited May 25, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Morty 1,431]

To a certain extent we got back to 2013 normality this basho after the different results of the first two 2014 bashos. To whit: Hak won, Kise had a chance to win but blew it, meaning he came in second, HF got 11 wins meaning the YDC can criticise him for not being Yokozuna enough and Kak got 9. The only thing missing was Osh not getting 8 wins, but the Geek seems to have taken that role on. Normal service resumed!

[ScreechingOwl 343]

I found it quite telling that even with the limits placed on the number of foreign-born rikishi that that a four man juryo playoff in involved three foreigners, all Mongolians to boot.

Heck, we are lucky that at least the two guys left at ozeki are Japanese or the Japanese audience might just give up on sumo completely. Having said that I don't see much more longevity in either of out homegrown ozeki.

Kotoshogiku and Kisenosato have always had very different projectories. Kotoshogiku is essentially an overachiever, someone most people probably never thought would make ozeki, but who happened to be in the right place at the right time (when there was an opening for an ozeki, especially a Japanese okeki). In his 16 basho as ozeki he's never scored more than 11 wins. He's gotten 11 wins twice, 10 wins three times, and 9 wins three times. And those are his "good" results. Otherwise, he's managed five "wins" (look at some of the contests to see why I put it in parenthesis) and three make-koshi. That's a really poor record for an ozeki supposedly in the prime of his career. Kotoshogiku doesn't seem to be able to recover from his last shoulder injury, and baring some help from the competition it's hard to see how he can scrape up even 8 wins in Nagoya. Even if he manages to get his 8 there, his days as ozeki are drawing to a rapid close.

Kisenosato, on the other hand, is seen as something of an underachiever. Be that as it may, he's been, and continues to be, a very solid ozeki. Of his 15 basho at ozeki, he has one maki-koshi and two 9 win basho. All his other basho he's won at least 10 victories, including 13 victories three times, and netted five jun-yusho. Plus, he's two and a half years younger than Kotoshogiku. Even if Kisenosato never makes yokozuna, he should have a few more productive years left as ozeki.

[rzombie1988 157]

I'm not really surprised by Kakuryu's result this basho. In his last 10 basho he went:

9-6

8-7

8-7

10-5

10-5

9-6

9-6

14-1

14-1

9-6

Just looking at his record, you can see that 9-6's are a lot more likely coming from him than a 14-1. I just thought he benefited from some recent weak fields and various injury issues with Harumafuji and Hakuho. I'm still against promoting someone without two straight basho wins and I'm going to stick by that.

You don't fluke two consecutive 14-1s because of the weakness of others. Give him some credit. He stood up to the pressure of pulling out that second 14-1, knowing that a yusho was essential, way better than a certain other yokozuna candidate did recently. And the promotion standard has always been two consecutive championships or the equivalent, which he met. To me a 14-1D 14-1Y is more impresssive than Musashimaru's two 13-2 yushos or Wakanohana's 14-1 and 12-3.

I'm not saying its luck at all. I'm saying he got hot at the right time and was able to take advantage of the weak field and injuried rikishi.

A win and a 2nd place finish is not more impressive to me than 2 wins. No matter how you put it, it's not equal. Especially not in any sport I know of. You think the Miami Heat would prefer their first title win plus their loss over the Mav's as opposed to their two straight titles? I think not.

Edited May 26, 2014 by rzombie1988

[rzombie1988 157]

I'm not really surprised by Kakuryu's result this basho. In his last 10 basho he went:

9-6

8-7

8-7

10-5

10-5

9-6

9-6

14-1

14-1

9-6

Just looking at his record, you can see that 9-6's are a lot more likely coming from him than a 14-1. I just thought he benefited from some recent weak fields and various injury issues with Harumafuji and Hakuho. I'm still against promoting someone without two straight basho wins and I'm going to stick by that.

You don't fluke two consecutive 14-1s because of the weakness of others. Give him some credit. He stood up to the pressure of pulling out that second 14-1, knowing that a yusho was essential, way better than a certain other yokozuna candidate did recently. And the promotion standard has always been two consecutive championships or the equivalent, which he met. To me a 14-1D 14-1Y is more impresssive than Musashimaru's two 13-2 yushos or Wakanohana's 14-1 and 12-3.

A yusho and a jun-yusho more impressive than 2 back-to-back yusho? You've got to be kidding.

Yokozuna Kakuryu has exactly one yusho to his name and until we see anything else, any talk of his future exploits is just pure speculation. In fact, one could also argue that his promotion was a lucky combination of an injury-ridden banzuke, uninspired opposition and being "in the zone", which always happens to most athletes in any field of sports. He could've been 8-7 this basho if it were not for Goeido's fingers in his mage while he was tumbling down to the dohyo...

One could argue that, but it would be complete nonsense. "An injury-ridden banzuke"? Harumafuji and (at a stretch) Myogiryu in January, and well, that's about it. "Uninspired opposition"? Totally subjective. And being "in the zone" is not something any old journeyman can do at will. As for his 9-6, most yokozuna fail to do well in their debut, due to the circus surrounding them and lack of training time.

Kakuryu isn't a journeyman by any means. Statistically, Kakuryu was in the top 0.5% even before his Yokozuna rank.

Kak got his 2nd place with no Harumafuji, no Baruto and Kotooshu, who was on his last legs. Add in an under-performing Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku, who wasn't at best and it wasn't that impressive. I don't have any real problems with his tournament win though minus Hakuho getting injured near the end for his 3 straight losses. I can gurantee Hak wouldn't have dropped all 3 had he been healthy.

You can say what you want but the fact is Kak more consistently wins 9-10 than he wins 13-14. Hakuho hasn't even touched 10 wins only since May 2012. Kak and HF are pretty even though on average win's since becoming Ozeki though, as both average 9. Kisen averages 10.5 wins while Hak on the other hand averages 13. I know, I know, Hakuho is special and way above everyone else, but Kakuryu's gonna have to figure out how to beat him consistently or learn to become content with 2nd place.

I'm not saying Kakuryu can't be great but his numbers and results don't really indicate it.

Edited May 26, 2014 by rzombie1988

[Asameshimae 220]

Sorry, slightly off topic, but somewhat relevant. I got curious when the last time a yokozuna actually took the yusho in his first basho. You have to go back to Takanohana. Before that you have to go back pretty far again to Takanosato. In between there you have the example of Onokuni who only managed an 8-7 in his first yokozuna basho and still went on to be a respectable yokozuna.

[rzombie1988 157]

Sorry, slightly off topic, but somewhat relevant. I got curious when the last time a yokozuna actually took the yusho in his first basho. You have to go back to Takanohana. Before that you have to go back pretty far again to Takanosato. In between there you have the example of Onokuni who only managed an 8-7 in his first yokozuna basho and still went on to be a respectable yokozuna.

Onokuni is pretty weak stat wise. He had one whole title as a Yok and two 2nd's. He was out or partially out of tournaments 39% of his Yokozuna run. Not exactly someone Kak wants to model himself after.

Edited May 26, 2014 by rzombie1988

[Asameshimae 220]

I was thinking more of Onokuni's perseverance in adversity and injury I guess, which I always found, er, respectable. I certainly wouldn't want Kakuryu (I just can't use Kak) to model himself after him, no.

Edited May 26, 2014 by Asanomeshi

[I am the Yokozuna 151]

I think that if were not for the hansoku win, Kakuryu would have been 8-7 at best. At best, I say, because please do not forget the henka. He might have won that bout anyhows, but, for the sake of the argument, he might have finished with 7-8, the first such feat since Wakanohana.

I also find travesty seeing Kakuryu as yokozuna when, in my mind, much more skillful rikishi like Kaio in 2003 and 2004, Tochiazuma in 2006 and Baruto in 2010 could not make it - largely due to the supremacy of two amazing yokozunas. He might have fulfilled the requirements, but his sumo before that was like yeah, meh. Becoming an ozeki on several henkas and only once vaguely challenging for the trophy prior to his two stellar bashos does not bode well for his future career, I think. Heck, even Wakanohana had several jun-yushos and yushos to his name when he got promoted. Hopefully, Kakuryu won't repeat elder Hanada's brothers feet - of no yushos during his tenure at yokozuna rank.

[Asameshimae 220]

"please do not forget the henka"

Ah right. I had rather forgotten that, even though I was there that day, nakabi. The audience, at least the ones who go enough to know their sumo, did not like it. I heard lots of booing. C'mon Kaku, man up.

Those lamentations about other wrestlers with so much potential who did not make yokozuna is the way sports is. It's not just about ability, it's about luck and the timing of your career, etc. as well.

Edited May 26, 2014 by Asanomeshi

[dingo 801]

Well I still hold that back-to-back yusho is back-to-back yusho and a yusho plus jun-yusho is still one yusho. There's no question for me that the former is more impressive than the latter.

I won't go and start predicting Kakuryu's future fate based on his record. It's up to him to prove that he belongs where he is.

[Asashosakari 17,282]

I also find travesty seeing Kakuryu as yokozuna when, in my mind, much more skillful rikishi like Kaio in 2003 and 2004, Tochiazuma in 2006 and Baruto in 2010 could not make it - largely due to the supremacy of two amazing yokozunas.

I don't understand. Kakuryu is lucky to be contending against both Hakuho and Harumafuji, while Kaio and Tochiazuma were unlucky to be contending only against Asashoryu, and Baruto was unlucky to be contending only against Hakuho? How exactly does that work?

[Asashosakari 17,282]

For the people who obsess about the lack of a second yusho: So if Kakuryu had won the playoff in January, everything would be hunky-dory? I mean, it has to be, since that's apparently the only reason people can muster against the promotion...

Funny to think that there were 31 bouts in Kakuryu's yokozuna run, and 30 of them were simply a pre- and post-show to The One Bout To Decide It All. And that bout doesn't even count on Kakuryu's official record.

(Likewise, if Kakuryu had done absolutely nothing different in January and March, but Hakuho had lost a couple more bouts in January, everything would be fine, too. Right?)

Edited May 26, 2014 by Asashosakari

[botev1921 33]

I have a question to those more knowledgeable. If two rikishi from one stable become yokozuna, does that still mean they won't be facing each other and was ever a time in history with two stablemate yokozuna?