Haru 2014 discussion thread **probable spoilers**

[Benevolance 2,349]

I've been finding myself really enjoying the juryo matchups this tournament. Kitaharima is very entertaining to watch. Amazingly balance at the edge of the dohyo and good overall athleticism. Not sure what's preventing him from cementing his presence in Juryo, at least. And - I genuinely can't believe I'm typing this - Akiseyama is looking vigorous.

But especially, I really like Arawashi. When I first noticed Arawashi, I thought he looked like some salaryman that had accidentally wandered onto the dohyo after a night of hard drinking and decided to save sumo. He had only a slight paunch, no real muscle definition, and just looked so out of place on the dohyo with other wrestlers. So, naturally, my friends and I inducted him as an honorary member of the YVR Takanoyama Clan and cheered him on. Aaaaaand he promptly tanked in Juryo and spent the next year in makushita. But he's back! And looking better than ever! I especially like Arawashi's tachi-ai and fighting spirit. And he's starting to put on some muscle and weight, which bodes well for his continued rise.

[Asashosakari 17,282]

I cannot see Kakuryo managing this, and despite rooting for him, I'm not sure I even want him to get there yet. He is not ready, and getting there to soon might just lead to early retirement.

Too soon? He's only one year younger than Harumafuji.

(And oddly enough, Kisenosato is another year younger than Kakuryu, and people were acting like he has definitely blown his final tsunatori chance last basho because he's just too old already...)

[CT3* 331]

When I first noticed Arawashi, I thought he looked like some salaryman that had accidentally wandered onto the dohyo after a night of hard drinking and decided to save sumo.

That sentence literally had me laughing out loud!! (Laughing...)

Great imagery!

[Asashosakari 17,282]

How high do you think is Tosayutaka going to climb back eventually?

I'd be surprised if he ever gets another kachikoshi in makuuchi, to be honest.

[shumitto 417]

How high do you think is Tosayutaka going to climb back eventually?

I'd be surprised if he ever gets another kachikoshi in makuuchi, to be honest.

I think he will struggle to reach mid-juryo. And next basho I predict a 7-8 or worse.

[Taigiin khuu 42]

I cannot see Kakuryo managing this, and despite rooting for him, I'm not sure I even want him to get there yet. He is not ready, and getting there to soon might just lead to early retirement.

Too soon? He's only one year younger than Harumafuji.

(And oddly enough, Kisenosato is another year younger than Kakuryu, and people were acting like he has definitely blown his final tsunatori chance last basho because he's just too old already...)

Yes you are right. I guess I did not mean in terms of age, but rather in terms of ability and importantly consistency.

I'm quite new to sumo, but I learnt since Harumafuji got promoted, that the second a Yok starts giving away kinboshi, warnings and 'threats' get given.

If 'my' Kakuryu gets promoted I fear that might be the route he heads down: full of performance warnings.. I dont want that ;o)

[Benevolance 2,349]

Are we giving Kakuryu realistic odds on success for this yokozuna run? He's 1:3 vs Harumafuji, but he's 1:10 vs Hakuho. He's got to beat them both. An injured Kotoshogiku should give him no trouble, but he still has to face Kise, whom he's ~1:4 odds against career-wise, except, in the past 18 match ups, it's more like 1:5. The Kise matchup is relevent because, even if Kak beats Big H/Little H, if he loses to Kise, the odds are that he'll have to fight either H. or h. again. Those are some very long odds to buck.

While I don't think Kakuryu has fought anywhere near his potential in a lot of his match ups, particularly against his fellow ozeki in past basho, his sumo involves a fair bit of back-pedalling. I just don't see him getting it done*.

*Without a little help from his friends.

[Mukonoso 266]

Is it just me or does there seem to be a lot more dancing along the edge of the ring this basho? Did they make the bales slightly taller?

[Jakusotsu 5,170]

Harumafuji displayed some pain in his wrist after his win against Kisenosato. Would be a nice excuse for blowing it against Kakuryu tomorrow.

[Tsubame 332]

Because Harumafuji is undefeated, and Kakuryu needs to beat him to have chances at a Yokozuna promotion. I'm not saying I agree with them, nor do I think that they are logical, I'm just saying the allegations will be there due to the Mongolian connection. There were similar allegations when HMF was promoted.

Then you can accuse every rikishi on a tsuna run of yaocho, because they need every win for their promotion. So, that's no argument...

[CT3* 331]

Harumafuji has some pain in his wrist? Must be from landing all of these pimp-slaps!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STP_fJee_Jc

[yorikiried by fate 1,842]

Harumafuji displayed some pain in his wrist after his win against Kisenosato. Would be a nice excuse for blowing it against Kakuryu tomorrow.

Elbow, rather.

[Asashosakari 17,282]

Then you can accuse every rikishi on a tsuna run of yaocho, because they need every win for their promotion. So, that's no argument...

Nearly every yaocho proclamation is based on "the rikishi who had more at stake in the bout won it, that must mean it was a crooked outcome"; there's rarely an actual argument beyond that. It's just uncritical pseudo-scepticism of everything, dressed up as deep insight.

[evilwaldo 11]

Are we giving Kakuryu realistic odds on success for this yokozuna run? He's 1:3 vs Harumafuji, but he's 1:10 vs Hakuho. He's got to beat them both. An injured Kotoshogiku should give him no trouble, but he still has to face Kise, whom he's ~1:4 odds against career-wise, except, in the past 18 match ups, it's more like 1:5. The Kise matchup is relevent because, even if Kak beats Big H/Little H, if he loses to Kise, the odds are that he'll have to fight either H. or h. again. Those are some very long odds to buck.

While I don't think Kakuryu has fought anywhere near his potential in a lot of his match ups, particularly against his fellow ozeki in past basho, his sumo involves a fair bit of back-pedalling. I just don't see him getting it done*.

*Without a little help from his friends.

It looks like Kakuryu has turned a corner performance wise. It could be that he has finished adjusting to the additional responsibilities because I would think the competition has been the same over the past few years for him.

He may have just made that move to the next level, sometimes competitors take some time to adjust like when a minor league baseball player comes up to the majors for the first time. Some guys settle right in and others take a while to adjust before turning up their competition level.

In any event, we are being treated to some great sumo at the top and bottom of the cards. I think we can all agree that the last few days will provide some great moments.

[shumitto 417]

Harumafuji's pain must come from so much slapping and pulling down. 26 hatakikomi wins in his career and 6 in the past two basho (not counting Hatsu). This Chiyotaikai-like strategy has worked for him. Maybe not as fast but fiercier.

I think Kakuryu is a real candidate for the tsuna. Harumafuji got the rope on the back of two Yusho, but I think most of us knew he wasn't ready - and it showed. Kakuryu, however, has improved. He backpedalls whenever he can, which is less often than before, and his newly-developed aggressiveness is an edge against opponents he could otherwise lose to (Toyonoshima or Goeido comes to mind). Unlike in Harumafuji's case, it doesn't look like two great basho amid inconsistency; rather, it is part of a smooth transition to a more stable and strong sumo. Barring injuries, Kakuryu should maintain and even improve on his recent success unless he gives up the tsuna hope and turn into a more survival-oriented rikishi in the mold of Kotooshu.

[ALAKTORN 346]

Then you can accuse every rikishi on a tsuna run of yaocho, because they need every win for their promotion. So, that's no argument...

Nearly every yaocho proclamation is based on "the rikishi who had more at stake in the bout won it, that must mean it was a crooked outcome"; there's rarely an actual argument beyond that. It's just uncritical pseudo-scepticism of everything, dressed up as deep insight.

I wish I had likes left to give today.

[Masumasumasu 902]

I saw Martin at the basho yesterday. Sitting up front, taking pictures.

[Vikanohara 171]

Cannot agree more, ALAKTORN. Can't even like that anymore. Double the amount of daily likes would be awesome.

Edited March 19, 2014 by Vikanohara

[Morty 1,431]

I don't know which thread to post it in, this one seems the most suitable, though:

here's the "average age" of the rikishi ranked in makuuchi for Haru Basho since 1990 (kind of, I just calculated the average of their years of birth and substracted it from the number of the year that the basho took place in):

1999      28,12
2000      28,55
2001      28,27
2002      28,47
2003      28,37
2004      28,83
2005      28,45
2006      28,55
2007      28,43
2008      28,19
2009      29
2010      29,02
2011      29,36 (Hatsu)
2012      28,38
2013      28,81

2014      26,24 !!!

No clever conclusion other than "wow, these guys are REALLY young!". Maybe someone else will have more to say :-)

PS. It's almost unbelievable how consistent the +-28 average age is most of the time.

If you still have the data handy I'd be really interested to see how Kyokotenhou skews the results. Run the numbers again without him and see what happens

[Senkoho 552]

I owe you guys an apology, I didn't double-check my results which led to those spectacular numbers. I must've miscalculated something - the 2014 age average in (unfortunately) not 26,24, but 28,29... which basically renders my whole theory useless and untrue :-)

Sorry!

[Ajisen 15]

Gosh the last 10 minutes was worth the price of admission!

[Hakuyobaku 33]

Kak moving slowly and under the radar but towards y spot.. only losing to ookinoumi it seems

[Morty 1,431]

Can one of you guys who has the knowledge about the finer nuances of sumo give me an opinion on the Chiyo brothers. They look pretty good to me but do they have the capacity to get significantly better from here? Are we seeing the next coming of the Hanada brothers, or are they just a couple of honest trundlers?

[kuroimori 1,634]

1 ginboshi & 3 douboshi for Endo and lots of kensho.

His jo-i debut has been quite a raid - he might even grab a special prize and might also sport a new shikona for the next basho. ..

[rzombie1988 157]

Sorry, but I don't think Kakuryu should be made a Yokozuna even if he wins this one. 2 good tournaments after 7 tournament in a row with atleast 5 losses is not Yokozuna worthy, it's forced retirement worthy. I would begrudgingly give it to him if he gets 2 tournament wins in a row, but I don't think he can last over time.

Edited March 20, 2014 by rzombie1988