Haru 2014 discussion thread **probable spoilers**

[Fay 1,676]

Have to make a phone call to Kotoshogiku now ...

Phrase your words carefully, Kintamayama (the conspiracy theorist) has a tap on the phone!

I'm going to call the Richijo now and maybe Akihito later. Does anyone want me to relay a message to either of them?

I should have made a smiley ;-), so that even triple Masu understands that I was joking ...

[Fay 1,676]

One major problem with the Mongolian triangle conspiracy theory: The relationship between some of the Mongolians is not brotherly- love driven. They come from different factions etc.. I'm sure the Mongolian fans can enlighten us better, but there is no love lost between some of them. I know some stuff for a fact, other is well-rooted speculation. That's why I don't buy into the "Hakuhou won't do his best against X " theory, because some of them would rather die than give up a win to certain others. You can't bundle them all into the "Mongolians look out for each other " sweeping generalizations. Some Mongolian fans I know who wish to remain anonymous and are close to the people in question have been laughing pretty hard at the mere possibility of some of the conjectures put forth here.

As Im close to some of the Mongolians I can only say that's more than right. They are mainly splitted in either the Hakuho or the Harumafuji/Asashoryu group. And even when they belong to the same "group" it doesnt mean that they like and help each other. Or to tell it with the words of a mongolian friend (no, not Kakuryu) "I dont like any of them, they are all my rivals."

[Akinomaki 36,900]

Now Kakuryu should at least get another yokozuna run next basho if he finishes again the runner-up after a kettei-sen.

[krindel 671]

Now Kakuryu should at least get another yokozuna run next basho if he finishes again the runner-up after a kettei-sen.

I am wondering if it is really that certain that a yusho WILL get him the promotion? After all, there are several serious arguments to be made against such a decision (no consecutive yusho, seriously mediocre win / loss ratio in his overall Ozeki career until the run, etc). I can imagine that the subject might be debatable amongst the oyakata (and the YDC, assuming anyone still listens to them), and not as clear-cut as might appear now...

Then again, I assume that the insight of our japanese speaking members who follow the press and the oyakata comments would have given us hints if the pre-basho target set for him was being questioned...

[Akinomaki 36,900]

I think Kakuryu won't get the rope with a 13-2 yusho if he loses tomorrow after a dismal performance (e. g. failed henka or hansoku) and Hakuho simply loses. That would be a reason to just give him another run.

14-1 should leave no question, as would 13-2 with another kettei-sen win against Hakuho.

The remaining case maybe decided by the mood of the shimpan department, which has to start the process.

Disclaimer: I'm not predicting anything, that most certainly would be the opposite of what's happening.

Edited March 22, 2014 by Akinomaki

[botev1921 33]

I am sorry, but since when an Ozeki, who has managed just one yusho and ONLY three 11+ basho is worthy of a promotion?

[kuroimori 1,634]

I am sorry, but since when an Ozeki, who has managed just one yusho and ONLY three 11+ basho is worthy of a promotion?

Remember Kisenosato?

[Akinomaki 36,900]

From the Rikishi Talk thread:

Day 14

Kitanoumi Rijichou, on a yokozuna promotion for Kakuryuu: "If he wins the yuushou then I think it'll happen."
北の湖理事長（元横綱）は、鶴竜の横綱昇進について「優勝すればあると思う」と明言した。

[Asojima 2,844]

I am sorry, but since when an Ozeki, who has managed just one yusho and ONLY three 11+ basho is worthy of a promotion?

Ozeki records are misleading. An ozeki who is not in the yusho race has no incentive to win more than 8 matches. Why go all out with nothing to gain and a chance at a career ending injury?

[Usagi 31]

Kakuryu will win against Kotoshogiku for sure. He is hot and has made a big jump in his development. He is more agressive and more powerful than ever before. He will be Yokozuna after this basho. Unfortunately the plan of the NSK, to help Kisenosato become Yokozuna backfired on them and will lead to the 4th Mongolian Yokozuna in a row. Very bad for sumo in Japan I guess.

And I can't really keep the conspiracy-thought out of my head as neither Hakuho nor Harumafuji really showed their best sumo against Kotoshugiku and Kakuryu. There WAS a point, were Harumafuji could have driven Kakuryu out. On the other hand, Harumafuji is not in top condition and Hakuho is over his edge though still the best. Can't say, there is a conspiracy, but there is a taste to it.

[rzombie1988 157]

Kakuryu will win against Kotoshogiku for sure. He is hot and has made a big jump in his development. He is more agressive and more powerful than ever before. He will be Yokozuna after this basho. Unfortunately the plan of the NSK, to help Kisenosato become Yokozuna backfired on them and will lead to the 4th Mongolian Yokozuna in a row. Very bad for sumo in Japan I guess.

The trick is to get a good Japanese Yokozuna, not a Futahaguro, which is what you get if you don't win a title. A bad Japanese Yokozuna does nothing except fgetting an attendance/rating pop for one or two basho's.

The funny thing with Futahaguro is that his record was actually better than Kakuryu's leading up to his promotion:

Kakuryu vs Futahaguro - Last 6 Basho's before Yokozuna promotion(assuming Kakuryu gets it)

Kak 8-7 vs Fut 11-4

Kak10-5 vs Fut 12-3(2nd place)

Kak 10-5 vs Fut 10-5

Kak 9-6 vs Fut 10-5

Kak 9-6 vs Fut 12-3(2nd place)

Kak 14-1(2nd place) vs Fut 14-1(2nd place)

Futahaguro went 69-21 while Kakuryu has gone 60-30.

Edited March 22, 2014 by rzombie1988

[rzombie1988 157]

I am sorry, but since when an Ozeki, who has managed just one yusho and ONLY three 11+ basho is worthy of a promotion?

Ozeki records are misleading. An ozeki who is not in the yusho race has no incentive to win more than 8 matches. Why go all out with nothing to gain and a chance at a career ending injury?

This is the type of mindset that doesn't lead to success. I always try to do my best in sports even when I know I'm going to lose or am losing.

[Benevolance 2,349]

I thought it was said before the basho that a 13-2 yuusho was necessary for Kak to get the rope?

[Asashosakari 17,280]

I thought it was said before the basho that a 13-2 yuusho was necessary for Kak to get the rope?

None of these comments are ever to be taken as any kind of officially sanctioned requirement.

[Asojima 2,844]

I am sorry, but since when an Ozeki, who has managed just one yusho and ONLY three 11+ basho is worthy of a promotion?

Ozeki records are misleading. An ozeki who is not in the yusho race has no incentive to win more than 8 matches. Why go all out with nothing to gain and a chance at a career ending injury?

This is the type of mindset that doesn't lead to success. I always try to do my best in sports even when I know I'm going to lose or am losing.

For an ozeki, success is getting a promotion to yokozuna or keeping your rank. For a yokozuna, success is getting the yusho or keeping the YDC and the media off your back.

[Asashosakari 17,280]

This is the type of mindset that doesn't lead to success. I always try to do my best in sports even when I know I'm going to lose or am losing.

Are you earning your livelihood through sport?

[Torabayama 51]

One major problem with the Mongolian triangle conspiracy theory: The relationship between some of the Mongolians is not brotherly- love driven. They come from different factions etc.. I'm sure the Mongolian fans can enlighten us better, but there is no love lost between some of them. I know some stuff for a fact, other is well-rooted speculation. That's why I don't buy into the "Hakuhou won't do his best against X " theory, because some of them would rather die than give up a win to certain others. You can't bundle them all into the "Mongolians look out for each other " sweeping generalizations. Some Mongolian fans I know who wish to remain anonymous and are close to the people in question have been laughing pretty hard at the mere possibility of some of the conjectures put forth here.

As Im close to some of the Mongolians I can only say that's more than right. They are mainly splitted in either the Hakuho or the Harumafuji/Asashoryu group. And even when they belong to the same "group" it doesnt mean that they like and help each other. Or to tell it with the words of a mongolian friend (no, not Kakuryu) "I dont like any of them, they are all my rivals."

Sorry for being a bit off topic, but was wondering if someone could add a bit more info on this. I've heard it over the years but haven't understood exactly 1. Where does the split of the 'Hakuho group' and the 'Asashoryu/Harumafuji group' originate from? Must be more than simple Yokozuna rivalry? and also 2. Which group do the current Mongolians fall under? For example, I've always known Asashoryu and Harumafuji were close but never had any idea where Kakuryu fell.

[Asashosakari 17,280]

In any case, considering "mediocre ozeki records" Kakuryu is on the verge of a yokozuna promotion, and "hasn't scored 12 or 13 wins in over 5 years" Harumafuji has won 6 yusho, I'd say the save-your-energy-for-when-it-matters strategy seems to be pretty successful after all.

[rzombie1988 157]

This is the type of mindset that doesn't lead to success. I always try to do my best in sports even when I know I'm going to lose or am losing.

Are you earning your livelihood through sport?

Nope, but doing the bare minimum to slip by traditionally doesn't lead to great results.

Edited March 22, 2014 by rzombie1988

[Asashosakari 17,280]

Nope, but doing the bare minimum to slip by traditionally doesn't lead to great results.

They're not doing the bare minimum, they're using the time-honoured veteran athletes' strategy of pacing themselves.

[Asojima 2,844]

One major problem with the Mongolian triangle conspiracy theory: The relationship between some of the Mongolians is not brotherly- love driven. They come from different factions etc.. I'm sure the Mongolian fans can enlighten us better, but there is no love lost between some of them. I know some stuff for a fact, other is well-rooted speculation. That's why I don't buy into the "Hakuhou won't do his best against X " theory, because some of them would rather die than give up a win to certain others. You can't bundle them all into the "Mongolians look out for each other " sweeping generalizations. Some Mongolian fans I know who wish to remain anonymous and are close to the people in question have been laughing pretty hard at the mere possibility of some of the conjectures put forth here.

As Im close to some of the Mongolians I can only say that's more than right. They are mainly splitted in either the Hakuho or the Harumafuji/Asashoryu group. And even when they belong to the same "group" it doesnt mean that they like and help each other. Or to tell it with the words of a mongolian friend (no, not Kakuryu) "I dont like any of them, they are all my rivals."

Sorry for being a bit off topic, but was wondering if someone could add a bit more info on this. I've heard it over the years but haven't understood exactly 1. Where does the split of the 'Hakuho group' and the 'Asashoryu/Harumafuji group' originate from? Must be more than simple Yokozuna rivalry? and also 2. Which group do the current Mongolians fall under? For example, I've always known Asashoryu and Harumafuji were close but never had any idea where Kakuryu fell.

I seem to remember that Hakuho and Kakuryu were once chastised for being golfing partners.

[Asashosakari 17,280]

Sorry for being a bit off topic, but was wondering if someone could add a bit more info on this. I've heard it over the years but haven't understood exactly 1. Where does the split of the 'Hakuho group' and the 'Asashoryu/Harumafuji group' originate from? Must be more than simple Yokozuna rivalry? and also 2. Which group do the current Mongolians fall under? For example, I've always known Asashoryu and Harumafuji were close but never had any idea where Kakuryu fell.

I'm not privy to any details (especially concerning stuff that may have happened back in past generations already), but my understanding is that Hakuho is seen - or sees himself - as the spiritual successor of the old Kyokushuzan-led "original Mongolians" faction, which for whatever reasons was rather at odds with Asashoryu.

As far as Kakuryu goes, I suspect the fact that he comes from a different social stratum (father is a university professor) and doesn't share the Mongolian wrestling background with most of the other rikishi means that he doesn't naturally belong to any of the big factions, although it's of course possible he's feeling more sympathetic to one of them than the other(s).

[wanderer 159]

One major problem with the Mongolian triangle conspiracy theory: The relationship between some of the Mongolians is not brotherly- love driven. They come from different factions etc.. I'm sure the Mongolian fans can enlighten us better, but there is no love lost between some of them. I know some stuff for a fact, other is well-rooted speculation. That's why I don't buy into the "Hakuhou won't do his best against X " theory, because some of them would rather die than give up a win to certain others. You can't bundle them all into the "Mongolians look out for each other " sweeping generalizations. Some Mongolian fans I know who wish to remain anonymous and are close to the people in question have been laughing pretty hard at the mere possibility of some of the conjectures put forth here.

As Im close to some of the Mongolians I can only say that's more than right. They are mainly splitted in either the Hakuho or the Harumafuji/Asashoryu group. And even when they belong to the same "group" it doesnt mean that they like and help each other. Or to tell it with the words of a mongolian friend (no, not Kakuryu) "I dont like any of them, they are all my rivals."

It is difficult to explain. Yes there are rivalries among Mongolian wrestlers. But remember also they are all in a foreign country. I don't think Asashoryu was really bent on being in the way of Hakuho despite their rivalries. Same can be said about Hakuho and Harumafuji. They will "help" each other in crucial moments by being slightly off guard or so on, but continue their rivalries once the field is level. I have a feeling that Japanese rikishi at Yokozuna and Ozeki level might feel the same. After all everyone has earned to be at that level, no one owns the top spot.

Kakiryu is a special case of Mongolian rikishi. Being son of a university professor, he hasn't got anything common with Harumafuji, Hakuho, Asashoryu who are all sons of famous wrestlers back home and have even been training together. I don't think he belongs to any factions but looks like he is very smart kid who can maintain a good relationship with everyone.

Kakiryu earned his way to this spot so I would think there would be no reason for Hakuho and Harumafuji to be overly harsh on him. The caveat is that there would be more peace and stability established when there are 3 Mongolian Yokozuna. They will continue returning the favor to each other, no need to secretly call each other, it is purely based on manly understanding. It is almost serene (telepathic) that way. Imagine the day Hakuho is about to win his 33th yusho and has to face Haru and Kak. Or the day Kakiryu needs just one final win and earn Yokozuna title. Or Harumafuji is having a break from his injuries and chance to win a yusho. No need of any conspiracy, just looking in the eye and manly understanding. Does this sound weird? Well, that is how Mongolian mentality works.

Edited March 22, 2014 by wanderer

[yorikiried by fate 1,842]

(Bow...)

[Fukurou 534]

Sorry for being a bit off topic, but was wondering if someone could add a bit more info on this. I've heard it over the years but haven't understood exactly 1. Where does the split of the 'Hakuho group' and the 'Asashoryu/Harumafuji group' originate from? Must be more than simple Yokozuna rivalry? and also 2. Which group do the current Mongolians fall under? For example, I've always known Asashoryu and Harumafuji were close but never had any idea where Kakuryu fell.

I'm not privy to any details (especially concerning stuff that may have happened back in past generations already), but my understanding is that Hakuho is seen - or sees himself - as the spiritual successor of the old Kyokushuzan-led "original Mongolians" faction, which for whatever reasons was rather at odds with Asashoryu.

As far as Kakuryu goes, I suspect the fact that he comes from a different social stratum (father is a university professor) and doesn't share the Mongolian wrestling background with most of the other rikishi means that he doesn't naturally belong to any of the big factions, although it's of course possible he's feeling more sympathetic to one of them than the other(s).

Wasn't there a bit about Hakuho's father and Asashoryu's father being some sort of rivals, and that's where some of the "animosity" between Hakuho and Asashoryu came from? Or do I have my Mongolian rikishi confused?

Edited March 22, 2014 by Fukurou