Haru 2014 discussion thread **probable spoilers**

[Taigiin khuu 42]

Kotoshogiku is the giant killer this basho! That's my dawg!

And he will have a huge role tomorrow. Crazy couple of days, but so enjoyable.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Endo is makekoshi? There goes another one of those theories...

[Fay 1,677]

Have to make a phone call to Kotoshogiku now ...

[yorikiried by fate 1,989]

Epidemic epicness all over the fucking epicenter. Sweet.

[Masumasumasu 902]

Have to make a phone call to Kotoshogiku now ...

I'm sure he'll be thrilled.

[Kintamayama 44,354]

Welcome Yokozuna Kakuryu!

I congratulate him but unfortunately this will hasten his retirement. That's the bottom line.

I highly doubt it. I refer you to Musashimaru. Some of us older geezers may remember, as I refer to it every time someone we never thought would make it, does. At the time, Musashimaru was the last person anyone could imagine would ever take the step. He did, and became a mighty Yokozuna till he got injured and retired. Kakuryuu has taken his sumo a step forward. Consecutive 14-1 records are never a fluke. You can't buy them ALL, tinfoilmen!!

[Masumasumasu 902]

Welcome Yokozuna Kakuryu!

I congratulate him but unfortunately this will hasten his retirement. That's the bottom line.

I highly doubt it. I refer you to Musashimaru. Some of us older geezers may remember, as I refer to it every time someone we never thought would make it, does. At the time, Musashimaru was the last person anyone could imagine would ever take the step. He did, and became a mighty Yokozuna till he got injured and retired. Kakuryuu has taken his sumo a step forward. Consecutive 14-1 records are never a fluke. You can't buy them ALL, tinfoilmen!!

Tinfoilman? You have me confused with someone else.

[Kintamayama 44,354]

Breaking news-just got hold of the transcript of a phone call held last night. I translated it to English. (This is for ronnie and YBF-just to save you some time..)

Ring ring..Ring ring..

Kotoshougiku: "Moshimoshi?"

Hakuhou:- "Hey Giku.."

K: "Yokozuna.. A bit late for a courtesy call.."

H:" I have an offer for you. You know of course that we have to get Kaku his tsuna, and we have to make it look good.."

K: "Yes, but I don't usually.."

H: "Shut up and listen.. You beat me tomorrow - maybe give me an extra shove at the edge so I can fall and break a finger or two.."

K: "Are you sure about this?"

H: "Sure I'm sure. Ama will lose to Goueidou too."

K" And what's in it for me?'

H: "Your kachikoshi of course-no way in hell you beat two of us in three days in your current condition unless I say so.."

K: "I'm listening.."

H: "Day 14, you beat Ama and get your KK, I lose to Kaku either by not showing up or just by losing on the dohyo. That leaves me with 2 losses, Ama out of it, and Kaku still with one loss. On senshuraku you lose to Kaku, since you already have your KK. The rest doesn't matter."

K :"OK, tomorrow then.."

H: "No mistakes, yes??"

K: "Yes.. I mean no.."

Ring ring.. Dohyo dohyo..

Kotoshougiku: "Good evening Yokozuna.. Did I do good?"

Hakuhou: "You did famously. But it's not over yet.. You know what to do tomorrow.."

K: "I do, but some guys on some gaijin sumo forum are on to us-Someone translated for me-they quoted our conversation verbatim!! And Kitanoumi was looking at me funny-like today.."

H: "Are you bailing out on me? Are you trying to go back on your side of the bargain??"

K: "No, no, just saying.."

H:" OK, just do what you're told and I'll take care of the rest.."

K: "OK, good evening.."

H: "I hope you are using the burner phone.."

K: "Of course.. I'm not Kasuganishiki.."

Together : "HAHAHAHA!!"

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

Kotoshougiku: "Good evening Yokozuna.. Did I do good?"

Hakuhou: "You did famously. But it's not over yet.. You know what to do tomorrow.."

K: "I do, but some guys on some gaijin sumo forum are on to us-Someone translated for me-they quoted our conversation verbatim!! And Kitanoumi was looking at me funny-like today.."

H: "Are you bailing out on me? Are you trying to go back on your side of the bargain??"

K: "No, no, just saying.."

H:" OK, just do what you're told and I'll take care of the rest.."

K: "OK, good evening.."

H: "I hope you are using the burner phone.."

K: "Of course.. I'm not Kasuganishiki.."

Together : "HAHAHAHA!!"

Actually, Hakuho can take care of this by losing to Harumafuji so he doesn't have to have Giku's help on this one. ;-)

Of course this is all just speculation!!!!

More speculation: Giku's "help" is needed because a 13-2 yusho isn't strong enough for the first yokozuna promotion with only one yusho in ages.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

More speculation: Giku's "help" is needed because a 13-2 yusho isn't strong enough for the first yokozuna promotion with only one yusho in ages.

But it could be a 13-2 yusho with another victory over Hakuho, which would surely make up for it. ;-)

[Chiyozakura 130]

To those who decorated my noggin with a tinfoil hat, I am willing to rephrase my question in hopes to get serious answers (like Itachiyama gave): What do you think is the likelihood of Kakuryu taking his first ever yusho at exactly this basho? If your answer is anything above 20%, please state the reasons:

Is it a) his impeccable record of 11-22 against Harumafuji and 3-32 against Hakuho (in other words, beating both of them has a likelihood of less than 3%)?

That is a perfect example of creating a conspiracy theory by using statistics the wrong way. The likelihood of beating both is by no means 3%. If you look at Kakuryu's past wins over Hakuho you will find that he has beaten Harumafuji in all the basho, too. So as long as Harumafuji is not in exceptionally good condition, which he is not this basho, you have to give Kakuryu about an even chance to beat him.

If you look through sumo history you will find a lot of rikishi who made huge jumps in their performance in very short time frames. Futabayama had been a Maegashira with the exception of one Komusubi basho for three years, than makes Sekiwake and starts a three year long winning streak. Chiyonofuji goes from underweight injury-prone Maegashira to the dominant Yokozuna in a little over a year. Kirishima was perfectly healthy in his Komusubi debut and went 1-14, still seven basho later he makes Ozeki. Sumotori can develop, gain strength and sometimes just self-confidence which takes their sumo to a new level.

And it is not just sumo specific, it works in other sports, too. In Tennis Wawrinka has won the Australian Open in convincing fashion, in darts Michael van Gerwen has gone from eternal talent to the man to beat in just a year and somebody whose wife lets them watch more sports can probably come up with some more examples.

So Kakuryu is now close to Yokozuna promotion. Is this due to conspiracy? Probably not. Can you construct one around it? Of course. And for the foreseeable future we will probably have to read way more theories whenever somebody goes for a promotion or an unexpected yusho.

By the way, for a fan of traditional shikona like me the most important question has not been raised, yet: Will they change his shikona to Nishinoumi IV? When Kirishima was up for Yokozuna promotion it was said that he would get the name if he made it.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

(If only I could rec that post twice, once for the sumo content and once more for the MvG reference. :-))

By the way, for a fan of traditional shikona like me the most important question has not been raised, yet: Will they change his shikona to Nishinoumi IV? When Kirishima was up for Yokozuna promotion it was said that he would get the name if he made it.

Interesting thought. In a marginally related note, over on the Japanese boards they've been predicting an eventual Izutsu-Shikoroyama merger since what feels like forever now, and in all that time Izutsu-beya has become smaller and smaller (only now 5 rikishi remaining, and that's with a fresh shindeshi). Has this development made that merger more or less likely? (Or really any merger, doesn't have to be with Shikoroyama.) Izutsu's just been elected to his first front office job as deputy riji, too... Edited March 22, 2014 by Asashosakari

[Kurt Trendafilov 5]

I personally don't believe in this conspiracy, but if there was one - it could be coming from two directions.

1. From the rikishi - this is next to impossible. No one would just go up there and lose to make "things more interesting". Every sportsman's goal is no different from that to always win. These guys have tremendous egos and that's perfectly normal - they're at the pinnacle of this tough sport. Losing is not an option for them and this can be easily seen by their behaviour.

2. A conspiracy directed by the kyokai? Then why not conspire to promote Kisenosato, which would be a great deal more profitable?

[Treblemaker 254]

I'm not sure what's in Kotoshogiku's cereal these days, but it seems that after Osh announces his retirement, Giku wakes up and starts doing some real damage. I'm sure he's still a physical wreck, so where is this fighting spirit coming from?

Now, logic dictates that Kakuryu beats on Giku, for many reasons. But we've seen logic fly out the window in this basho.

If Kak beats Giku, it's a done deal. If Giku beats Kak, and Hak beats HF, I really don't see Kak trumping Hak twice in one basho. (Monosyllables are cool.)

Whatever happens, it's gonna be fun to watch. Anyone with any money on any fighter at this stage is crazy. Send me your money. I'll take better care of it.

[Vikanohara 171]

I especially liked these lower division bouts today :

- Juryo : Higonojo vs Tamaasuka & Kotoyuki vs Takanoyama (for the coolness-factor B-) )

- Makushita : Ishiura vs Sensho & Kawanari vs Kaonishiki

- Sandanme : Kakehashi vs Otakayama & Kai vs Koike

[krindel 671]

Ishiura did an awesome job of turning around a 0-3 start to get KK. I, for one, didn't think he could do it.

Horikiri followed the exact opposite path, which kind of sucks, since I was amazed by his hot start after that huge jump in rank. Still, pretty good result all things considered. :)

[Tony 16]

To those who decorated my noggin with a tinfoil hat, I am willing to rephrase my question in hopes to get serious answers (like Itachiyama gave): What do you think is the likelihood of Kakuryu taking his first ever yusho at exactly this basho? If your answer is anything above 20%, please state the reasons:

Is it a) his impeccable record of 11-22 against Harumafuji and 3-32 against Hakuho (in other words, beating both of them has a likelihood of less than 3%)?

That is a perfect example of creating a conspiracy theory by using statistics the wrong way. The likelihood of beating both is by no means 3%. If you look at Kakuryu's past wins over Hakuho you will find that he has beaten Harumafuji in all the basho, too. So as long as Harumafuji is not in exceptionally good condition, which he is not this basho, you have to give Kakuryu about an even chance to beat him.

If you look through sumo history you will find a lot of rikishi who made huge jumps in their performance in very short time frames. Futabayama had been a Maegashira with the exception of one Komusubi basho for three years, than makes Sekiwake and starts a three year long winning streak. Chiyonofuji goes from underweight injury-prone Maegashira to the dominant Yokozuna in a little over a year. Kirishima was perfectly healthy in his Komusubi debut and went 1-14, still seven basho later he makes Ozeki. Sumotori can develop, gain strength and sometimes just self-confidence which takes their sumo to a new level.

And it is not just sumo specific, it works in other sports, too. In Tennis Wawrinka has won the Australian Open in convincing fashion, in darts Michael van Gerwen has gone from eternal talent to the man to beat in just a year and somebody whose wife lets them watch more sports can probably come up with some more examples.

So Kakuryu is now close to Yokozuna promotion. Is this due to conspiracy? Probably not. Can you construct one around it? Of course. And for the foreseeable future we will probably have to read way more theories whenever somebody goes for a promotion or an unexpected yusho.

By the way, for a fan of traditional shikona like me the most important question has not been raised, yet: Will they change his shikona to Nishinoumi IV? When Kirishima was up for Yokozuna promotion it was said that he would get the name if he made it.

Nishinoumi wasn't a very successful shikona for yokozuna!

[Morty 1,480]

The best argument against any conspiracy theory is to watch the match between Hak and Kak. Hak made him earn it but Kak beat him fair and square.

[ronnie 221]

Have to make a phone call to Kotoshogiku now ...

Phrase your words carefully, Kintamayama (the conspiracy theorist) has a tap on the phone!

[Masumasumasu 902]

Have to make a phone call to Kotoshogiku now ...

Phrase your words carefully, Kintamayama (the conspiracy theorist) has a tap on the phone!

I'm going to call the Richijo now and maybe Akihito later. Does anyone want me to relay a message to either of them?

[Randomitsuki 2,768]

My final take on the "conspiracy" stuff:

1) I never said and would never say that things are orchestrated by the NSK. The mere thought of it would be ridiculous. Even the Sumotalk writers retracted from this silly idea, as they realized that an organization that fails to produce a Japanese yusho in eight years and counting can't be all that good in pulling the strings. :-)

2) I would also never say that a basho outcome is pre-meditated, nor that Kakuryu's impending promotion would be undeserved. He certainly has proven that he can rack up lots of wins in a completely legit way. I also think that he can beat anyone on a good day, Hakuho included. However, coming from a stats point of view, there is a huge difference between "can beat Hakuho on a good day" and "beating Harumafuji on a good day, then beating Kisenosato on another good day, and then beating Hakuho on yet another good day". Strings of these kind are highly unlikely (play Chaingang or Odd Sumo if you want to experience it). If anything, I can buy into the "flow" argument put forth by Asashosakari, though it is a bit nebulous.

3) I would argue pretty much along the lines of Lost ballet fan: when Kakuryu has once again shown his consistency and was a legitimate yusho contender, Hakuho and Harumafuji might not have given all they could muster, in order to help a countryman achieve a standard that might be too high anyway. For instance, in today's bout between Kakuryu and Hakuho, I could see a lot of resistance from the Yokozuna, but failed to see any attempts to move forward. Again, this could happen at times, rikishi are no robots. But I am surprised that so few people had a slightly sour taste when they saw how Hakuho lost to a one-armed Kotoshogiku, just when the benefit for all was so graspable.

4) Kakuryu wouldn't make for a bad Yokozuna, and he certainly has developed. However, just at this basho I did not see many comments on his development or dominance. People were all over the place at how strong Hakuho was, and how surprisingly strong Harumafuji was. If you look at Kakuryu, some complained about too much backpedaling early in the basho, but otherwise I cannot recall that anybody said: whew, look at that Kakuryu dude, this time he is for real, and you can see it on the dohyo.

5) Even if there is an inkling of truth to my insinuations, some "gentlemen's agreements" among rikishi will not detract from my enjoyment of sumo. Heck, I'll be rooting for Kakuryu to take the final step tomorrow! :-) And now back to lurking mode for me.

[rzombie1988 157]

I play sports all the time and can tell you that people just get hot and cold at times for no apparent reason. I can also tell you that body aches and pains really affect performances. I play so much better and livelier after a day off than I do after a 3-4 day grind. Finally, when you feel you have a chance at winning, you tend to go harder and try to do whatever you can to pull off the win. Winning depends on so many different factors and on any given day, anyone can win. Any move is a gamble in sumo and being one second or one degree off can change the outcome.

I really liked Kakuryu's tactics today against Hakuho. Hakuho always starts far back so Kak went for slaps/strikes that pushed Hakuho back further and didn't allow him to get much going. I've wondered for a while what a good way to counter Hakuho's starting so far back would be, and this might be a good way. I really enjoyed the Hakuho/Kakuryu match as it was pretty violent and they both put a lot into it.

I really have no idea where Kotoshogiku has been getting his form from the last two days, but hopefully for his sake he keeps it. Kisenosato almost became Yokozuna due to getting hot at the right times against Hakuho and HF, so who knows where this could lead if he rolls with it.

Hakuho is past his peak I think. He's still the best Yokozuna but 14-15 easy wins with yusho's seem to be over. Still, even him going 13-2 more often is going to be enough to win.

I do think all of the Ozeki are helped out by Kotooshu and Baruto retiring. I don't even think it is a question. With Koto and Baruto still being around, I think this tournament would have looked a lot different and probably would have been a guaranteed Hakuho win. I think we are going to get more tournaments like this one with more people stepping up to take the spots of Baruto/Kotooshu and more Ozeki doing better without Baruto/Kotooshu stopping them.

Edited March 22, 2014 by rzombie1988

[Treblemaker 254]

I really liked Kakuryu's tactics today against Hakuho. Hakuho always starts far back so Kak went for slaps/strikes that pushed Hakuho back further and didn't allow him to get much going. I've wondered for a while what a good way to counter Hakuho's starting so far back would be, and this might be a good way. I really enjoyed the Hakuho/Kakuryu match as it was pretty violent and they both put a lot into it.

Agreed. I've been saying this for years. And here, someone finally took advantage of this detail and had enough power to drive him back to the point where he had no chance to go for the belt.

Hakuho is still the top dog, and will continue to chow down on most of his opponents, especially in the first week and some, but there is a degree of parity forming at the top that will challenge him in the closing days of each basho.

[wanderer 159]

Kakiryu seems to have developed very efficient tsuppari technique in last couple of basho. I saw him neutralizing Goeido, Harumafuji and Hakuho this basho with vicious thrust to their neck, or side of the face. In case of Goeido and Harimafuji, Kak applied that thrust sideways, which appeared to knock them off of their balance. Hakuho appears to have been caught off guard by Kak's thrust to his neck, which hasn't happened to Hakuho for a while. Anand the Kakiryu is a smart kid, it appears.

[Kintamayama 44,354]

One major problem with the Mongolian triangle conspiracy theory: The relationship between some of the Mongolians is not brotherly- love driven. They come from different factions etc.. I'm sure the Mongolian fans can enlighten us better, but there is no love lost between some of them. I know some stuff for a fact, other is well-rooted speculation. That's why I don't buy into the "Hakuhou won't do his best against X " theory, because some of them would rather die than give up a win to certain others. You can't bundle them all into the "Mongolians look out for each other " sweeping generalizations. Some Mongolian fans I know who wish to remain anonymous and are close to the people in question have been laughing pretty hard at the mere possibility of some of the conjectures put forth here.

Edited March 22, 2014 by Kintamayama