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Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Hatsu 2014

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I wonder whether there have been rikishi in Makushita for more than 10 years ?

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I wonder whether there have been rikishi in Makushita for more than 10 years ?

Consecutive or total?

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I wonder whether there have been rikishi in Makushita for more than 10 years ?

Consecutive or total?

Consecutive. As otherwise Kotokuni comes to mind. And many others.

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I really enjoy this thread, thank you!

And this is a particularly interesting Basho for movement between divisions.

Tochiozan nowhere to go now except east K?

And almost too many spots available in Makuuchi now, with not enough adequate records in Juryo. So either Satoyama or Kyokoshuho or Homasho may be staying up?

I await your analysis...

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New banzuke looks an utter nightmare. Very few KKs vs MKs. I had a quick stab at it now and there are simply not enough people coming up to fill the spaces made by the ones going down. Going to be a weird one.

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Day 15:

Goeido henka'ed his way to kachikoshi, and with Tochiozan also improving to 11-4 a three-sekiwake banzuke looks likely now for March. Meanwhile Toyonoshima won the promotion playoff against Shohozan, but if two new komusubi are needed Shohozan should be moving up well.

8-7 Goeido S Kotooshu 8-7

(x)0-4-11 Myogiryu K Tochiozan 11-4 (?)

(o) 8-7 Toyonoshima M1

...

(?) 9-6 Shohozan M5

8-7 Tamawashi M6

...

M10 Endo 11-4

Takanoiwa beat Endo to cost the new hope his second sansho and save his makuuchi ranking in the process. Kagamio was also victorious against Azumaryu and should survive as a top division rikishi as well, while Tokitenku is definitely dropping now after a loss to returning Jokoryu. Satoyama's accidental hair pull at the end of his long bout with Takayasu has put him on the bubble, where he's joined by Kyokushuho thanks to his win against Aoiyama.

The juryo ranks saw a loss for Tenkaiho which has put his return to makuuchi in debut. Chiyomaru secured the yusho without having to go through a playoff and will be joining his younger brother Chiyootori in the top ranks next time.

M7 Homasho kyujo (x)

...

(x) 2-13 Shotenro M11

M12

(?) 5-10 Kyokushuho M13 Tokitenku 4-11 (x)

(o) 6-9 Kagamio M14

M15 Takanoiwa 7-8 (o)

M16 Satoyama 7-8 (?)

(x) kyujo Kotoyuki M17

J1 Terunofuji 12-3 (o)

(?) 8-7 Tenkaiho J2

(o) 10-5 Jokoryu J3 Azumaryu 10-5 (o)

J4

J5 Tamaasuka 9-6 (?)

(o) 13-2 Chiyomaru J6

Four exchanges are obvious, the rest less so. My guess: Tenkaiho moves up at the expense of Kyokushuho, but Satoyama hangs on.

It looks like only three spots have opened up in the juryo division as Akiseyama secured his last needed win against Tochihiryu. Higonojo won the demotion playoff, saving himself and sending Sakigake back to makushita. That third spot is going to Kitaharima now who vanquished Sagatsukasa, likely keeping Tosayutaka in makushita for another basho. (Unless somebody else decides to join Kimurayama in retirement by Wednesday.)

J9 Akiseyama 5-10 (o)

J10

J11 Kimurayama 4-11 (i)

J12 Takanoyama 4-11 (x)

(x) 6-9 Sakigake J13

(o) 8-7 Higonojo J14

Ms1

(o) 4-3 Sagatsukasa Ms2

Ms3

(o) 5-2 Amuru Ms4 Kitaharima 5-2 (o)

Ms5 Tosayutaka 5-2

Also during the day the two remaining lower division yusho were won by 27-year-old Tokkoriki (jonokuchi) and 28-year-old Kotoninsei (jonidan).

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I can't wait for Asashosakari to post an update (eagerly awaited), so I had a few thoughts to add.

Although there are many examples of a komusubi with 10 wins still komusubi next basho, I can find no example where 11 wins did not get promoted to sekiwake. So, unless Kotooshu retires immediately, there will be 3 sekiwake next basho, and accordingly the last Makunouchi rank position would be M16w. This makes it a little bit harder for Satoyama to stay up with his 7-8 record.

After Endo's Day 15 loss, I think the 2 komusubi spots would go to Toyonoshima & Shohozan.

Several seemingly obvious demotions to Juryo are: Homasho, Kotoyuki, Shotenro & Tokitenku.

Edit: d'oh, could have waited after all, Asashosakari beat me while I was cogitating.

Edited by Oshirokita

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... and accordingly the last Makunouchi rank position would be M16w. This makes it a little bit harder for Satoyama to stay up with his 7-8 record.

Things seem to work out pretty well if Masunoyama, Takanoiwa and Satoyama all get to keep their ranks with their 7-8's, but of course they might want to demote Satoyama anyway. I suppose it's possible that Kyokushuho takes the last spot and Satoyama goes down. It's all a bit messy in any case though.

Edit: d'oh, could have waited after all, Asashosakari beat me while I was cogitating.

The more the merrier. ;-)

For kicks here's a quick attempt at juryo and makushita. Juryo looks pretty straight-forward except for the lucky jump for the two J14 8-7's, but in makushita there's lots and lots of space to fill, leading to some very generous promotions and demotions in this draft. (And I could be completely off on the demotions, especially the 2-5's and Oiwato's 1-6.)

Kyokushuho (M13e 5-10) J1 Tamaasuka (J5w 9-6)

Asahisho (J1e 7-8) J2 Asasekiryu (J7e 9-6)

Tokitenku (M13w 4-11) J3 Shotenro (M11e 2-13)

Homasho (M7w 0-0-15) J4 Daido (J6w 8-7)

Sadanoumi (J13w 11-4) J5 Sotairyu (J8e 8-7)

Chiyonokuni (J5e 7-8) J6 Tokushinho (J9e 8-7)

Homarefuji (J4e 6-9) J7 Chiyoo (J2w 5-10)

Arawashi (J10w 8-7) J8 Sokokurai (J11e 8-7)

Wakanosato (J4w 5-10) J9 Higonojo (J14e 8-7)

Seiro (J14w 8-7) J10 Yoshiazuma (J10e 7-8)

Wakakoyu (J8w 6-9) J11 Daikiho (J7w 5-10)

Kotoyuki (M17e 0-0-15) J12 Tochihiryu (J12e 7-8)

Amuru (Ms4e 5-2) J13 Sagatsukasa (Ms2e 4-3)

Kitaharima (Ms4w 5-2) J14 Akiseyama (J9w 5-10)

Tosayutaka (Ms5w 5-2) Ms1 Sakigake (J13e 6-9)

Higoarashi (Ms21e 7-0) Ms2 Yamatofuji (Ms7e 5-2)

Ichinojo (Ms15Td 6-1) Ms3 Tanzo (Ms1e 3-4)

Takanoyama (J12w 4-11) Ms4 Wakanoshima (Ms7w 4-3)

Ishiura (Ms11w 5-2) Ms5 Mankajo (Ms12e 5-2)

Kizenryu (Ms8w 4-3) Ms6 Kansei (Ms3e 3-4)

Kotomisen (Ms3w 3-4) Ms7 Daieisho (Ms13w 5-2)

Kairyu (Ms26e 6-1) Ms8 Iwasaki (Ms12w 4-3)

Sensho (Ms13e 4-3) Ms9 Kihonoumi (Ms2w 2-5)

Nishikigi (Ms16e 4-3) Ms10 Kyokutaisei (Ms23e 5-2)

Fujimoto (Ms17w 4-3) Ms11 Dairaido (Ms8e 3-4)

Fukugoriki (Ms5e 2-5) Ms12 Oiwato (Ms1w 1-6)

Tatsu (Ms19e 4-3) Ms13 Terao (Ms36e 6-1)

Shosei (Ms10e 3-4) Ms14 Dewahayate (Ms10w 3-4)

Irie (Ms6w 2-5) Ms15 Horikiri (Sd23w 7-0)

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the strongest Ms1-15 lineup ever? I mean I don't really know what things looked like in more distant past, but (let's assume Asashosakari's guess is the actual banzuke) we have some really strong fresh (or relatively fresh) blood in Ichinojo, Ishiura, Daieisho, Iwasaki and Horikiri, some decent ex-sekitori in Tosayutaka, Tanzo, Takanoyama, Kotomisen, Oiwato etc. + the likes of Higoarashi, Kairyu, Kihonoumi, Fukugoriki etc, who've been makushita joi (or just below it) regulars for quite a long time.
Also, the ex-hope Tatsu is back in the picture and we'll have Terao that we'll probably cheer on if not for his sumo, then at least for his shikona... There's almost not an uninteresting name in the Ms1-15 lineup. Really looking forward to Haru!

Edited by Senkoho

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Indeed, what a top Makushita this would be. Though I'd like to see them in action as well.

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Why creating a third sekiwake slot, if not really necessary? Ok, with 11 wins only advancing from K1w to K1e is questionable, but still a promotion. Last time an additional spot was created (for a komusubi with 11 wins) was back in Natsu 1981. So, is the following so unlikely?

Goeido S Kotooshu
Tochiozan K
Toyonoshima

Shohozan M1 Endo

Tamawashi M2 ...

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Why creating a third sekiwake slot, if not really necessary? Ok, with 11 wins only advancing from K1w to K1e is questionable, but still a promotion. Last time an additional spot was created (for a komusubi with 11 wins) was back in Natsu 1981. So, is the following so unlikely?

Goeido S Kotooshu

Tochiozan K Toyonoshima

Shohozan M1 Endo

Tamawashi M2 ...

Agree.

No third Sekiwake slot for Tochiozan.

He will be promoted only if Kotooshu retires IMHO

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Why creating a third sekiwake slot, if not really necessary? Ok, with 11 wins only advancing from K1w to K1e is questionable, but still a promotion. Last time an additional spot was created (for a komusubi with 11 wins) was back in Natsu 1981.

Hatsu 1990 and Haru 2003 as well.
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Why creating a third sekiwake slot, if not really necessary? Ok, with 11 wins only advancing from K1w to K1e is questionable, but still a promotion. Last time an additional spot was created (for a komusubi with 11 wins) was back in Natsu 1981.

Hatsu 1990 and Haru 2003 as well.

But in both bashos (which my query didn't found) the komusubis not only had 11 wins but also a sansho (kanto-sho).

And as Oshirokita noted above: By not creating a third slot you avoid thinking about Satoyama, as you can keep him in maku-uchi and demote and promote the obvious ones...

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Why creating a third sekiwake slot, if not really necessary? Ok, with 11 wins only advancing from K1w to K1e is questionable, but still a promotion. Last time an additional spot was created (for a komusubi with 11 wins) was back in Natsu 1981.

Hatsu 1990 and Haru 2003 as well.

But in both bashos (which my query didn't found) the komusubis not only had 11 wins but also a sansho (kanto-sho).

And as Oshirokita noted above: By not creating a third slot you avoid thinking about Satoyama, as you can keep him in maku-uchi and demote and promote the obvious ones...

Why would it make a difference about Satoyama if the 3rd Sekiwake slot is created or not? The makuuchi rikishi will stay 42, other than that its just a matter of names (whether the last guy will be called M17e or M16w).

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Hatsu 1990 and Haru 2003 as well.

Thanks for showing me that nifty "Rank next basho" check box. The DB never ceases to amaze me.

Yeah, like a church organ with all those nifty registers, the DB and its buttons can create so many different things.

the "rank next basho" or "results last basho" + "rank last basho" settings come in quite handy when trying your luck at a certain pre-basho game... ;-)

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Why creating a third sekiwake slot, if not really necessary? Ok, with 11 wins only advancing from K1w to K1e is questionable, but still a promotion. Last time an additional spot was created (for a komusubi with 11 wins) was back in Natsu 1981.

Hatsu 1990 and Haru 2003 as well.

But in both bashos (which my query didn't found) the komusubis not only had 11 wins but also a sansho (kanto-sho).

And as Oshirokita noted above: By not creating a third slot you avoid thinking about Satoyama, as you can keep him in maku-uchi and demote and promote the obvious ones...

There have been some promotions to S2 with 9 and 10 wins http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Query.aspx?show_form=0&form1_rank=K&form2_rank=S2&sort_basho=1

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Also, the ex-hope Tatsu ...

Ex-hope? The guy is not even 20 yet :)

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Also, the ex-hope Tatsu ...

Ex-hope? The guy is not even 20 yet :)

Yeah, still very young, but he started ploughing through the lower ranks in impressive fashion before stalling.

At least he is nowhere near of becoming the Justin Bieber of Ozumo ;-)

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I did not get an answer on the main Honbasho thread, so I'll try here now.



I wanted to ask what kind of importance is placed on the Juryo yusho by the NSK? And how does this influence the match-ups that are scheduled in the last 4 - 5 days in both Juryo and Makuuchi?



For example, if a rikishi is in contention for the Juryo yusho from a J1 - J3 position, do the match-ups given to that rikishi reflect fighting with lower ranks that are also in contention? Or do promotion/relegation match-ups (fighting higher ranks in Makuuchi) take more importance?


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Why creating a third sekiwake slot, if not really necessary? Ok, with 11 wins only advancing from K1w to K1e is questionable, but still a promotion. Last time an additional spot was created (for a komusubi with 11 wins) was back in Natsu 1981. So, is the following so unlikely?

Goeido S Kotooshu

Tochiozan K Toyonoshima

Shohozan M1 Endo

Tamawashi M2 ...

I think that the shimpan vice-director Matsugane will make sure that "his" SHOHOZAN will be promoted to Komusubi and thus Tochiozan has to be promoted to Sekiwake (On the banzuke...)

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Why creating a third sekiwake slot, if not really necessary? Ok, with 11 wins only advancing from K1w to K1e is questionable, but still a promotion. Last time an additional spot was created (for a komusubi with 11 wins) was back in Natsu 1981. So, is the following so unlikely?

Goeido S Kotooshu

Tochiozan K Toyonoshima Shohozan M1 Endo

Tamawashi M2 ...

I think that the shimpan vice-director Matsugane will make sure that "his" SHOHOZAN will be promoted to Komusubi and thus Tochiozan has to be promoted to Sekiwake (On the banzuke...)

... and maybe just for esthetic reasons they want to bring the next banzuke back into balance?

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