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Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion and Yusho discussion Kyushu 2013

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It's Day 10, so here we go again...

It's looking like a complex sanyaku puzzle for the next banzuke right now, mostly courtesy of Kotooshu's impending demotion. Tochiozan and Okinoumi still have a decent shot at staying in the titled ranks, while Shohozan has already blown it. There's no shortage of candidates for promotion, although every single one of them will need a good (to excellent) finish to the basho.

O2 Kotooshu 1-3-6 (x)
6-4 Goeido S Tochiozan 4-6
(x) 2-8 Shohozan K Okinoumi 5-5

5-5 Myogiryu M1 Aminishiki 4-6
3-7 Kyokutenho M2 Toyonoshima 5-5
M3 Takekaze 5-5
M4
7-3 Aoiyama M5 Kaisei 5-5
8-2 Chiyotairyu M6 Ikioi 7-3



There should be 3 open slots in makuuchi already after Tamaasuka collected loss #8 today. Aran of course needs to be replaced, and the unfortunate Kotoyuki is also demotable, and is quite unlikely to be saved by what's happening around him - not many very bad makuuchi scores plus quite good juryo results means that anybody with a demotable record will probably have to go down this time. Tamawashi and Shotenro won't have to worry about that after clinching numerical safety today.

(Possible wildcard here: If Tochiozan goes makekoshi there might still be only two sekiwake despite Osh's demotion and we'll see the M17e spot reappear.)

No juryo rikishi has done quite enough to earn a ticket to the top division yet, but Chiyootori (on a 7-bout winning streak) moved to kachikoshi today to co-lead the yusho race and put in a strong claim for promotion. For everybody else listed below it's really too early to call it one way or the other, though some will have to do a bit more than others. (On a trivia side note, check out Chiyonokuni's hoshi pattern: ●○○○● ●○○○●.)

M8 Tenkaiho 1-9
M9
4-6 Tokitenku M10 Kotoyuki 4-3-3 (x)
M11 Tamawashi 5-5 (o)
3-7 Jokoryu M12
4-6 Yoshikaze M13 Gagamaru 5-5
6-4 Kyokushuho M14 Tokushoryu 5-5
(o) 7-3 Shotenro M15 Osunaarashi 5-5
(x) intai Aran M16 Tamaasuka 2-8 (x)

6-4 Kagamio J1 Takanoiwa 4-6
8-2 Chiyootori J2 Azumaryu 5-5
6-4 Terunofuji J3 Chiyonokuni 6-4
J4 Asahisho 7-3
5-5 Homarefuji J5 Wakanosato 6-4
8-2 Satoyama J6
J7
J8 Chiyoo 7-3



For the second basho in a row there should be plenty of opportunities for makushita rikishi to get promoted. Aran's spot is up for grabs here, too, and kyujo Tochinoshin is already joined on the way down by Kotomisen. Mummified Tanzo is also in pretty big danger and should need a 4-1 finish to avoid the demotion. Everybody else only requires at most 2 wins but several candidates such as Tokushinho, Daikiho and Wakakoyu haven't exactly looked stellar so far, so it wouldn't be a huge surprise if one of them failed to reach the mark.

Below the curtain the first spot was claimed by Arawashi already back on Day 7, but his yusho hopes were dashed by unheralded Wakanoshima (an alum of former rijicho Hanaregoma's stable) yesterday. Sakigake is the only other one in KK territory in the promotion zone after he beat fellow Mongolian Seiro in an early 6th bout up in juryo today. He's ranked too low to be assured of his juryo debut at this time, but depending on how the other contenders do 4 wins could end up being enough. A 5th win never hurts though. Beyond that things mirror the juryo high ranks in that it's really too early to say anything definite at this point. Well, we can say that Irie and Oniarashi have departed the race with a loss in the most recent round of bouts.

I'm listing the Ms6 pair for now since it's still possible that there's a big collapse in the higher ranks and there won't be any better candidates to fill the likely 3 to 4 definite open slots:

2-8 Tokushinho J7 Sokokurai 3-7
J8
3-7 Oiwato J9 Daikiho 3-7
J10 Daido 5-5
4-6 Wakakoyu J11 Kimurayama 5-5
5-4 Seiro J12 Kotomisen 1-9 (x)
J13 Tanzo 3-7
6-4 Higonojo J14 Tochinoshin kyujo (x)

2-3 Kitaharima Ms1 Arawashi 4-1 (o)
2-3 Tochihiryu Ms2 Takanoyama 2-3
3-2 Kawanari Ms3 Irie 1-4 (x)
(x) 1-4 Oniarashi Ms4 Sakigake 4-2
4-1 Sadanoumi Ms5 Nionoumi 2-3
3-2 Sagatsukasa Ms6 Kihonoumi 3-2
...
5-0 Wakanoshima Ms14


Two makekoshi avoidance playoffs with Kitaharima-Takanoyama and Tochihiryu-Nionoumi tomorrow, and heavyweight Kawanari can likely clinch the promotion if he beats Tanzo in his juryo visit.

Edited by Asashosakari
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In only vaguely related news, but I don't feel like opening a different thread - the lower division yusho races:

Ms14e Wakanoshima (Shibatayama)
Ms21w Masunoumi (Chiganoura)
Ms48e Tosayutaka (Tokitsukaze)
Ms52w Tochimaru (Kasugano)
-----
Sd7w Hochiyama (Sakaigawa)
Sd20e Shineiyama (Sakaigawa)
Sd41e Aratoshi (Irumagawa)
Sd65w Karatsuumi (Tamanoi)
Sd81w Kakehashi (Hakkaku)
Sd90w Baraki (Shikihide)
-----
Jd13w Keitenkai (Onomatsu)
Jd44w Hokutogo (Hakkaku)
Jd49w Zendaisho (Takadagawa)
Jd73w Hiroshima (Fujishima)
Jd77e Wakakoki (Shikoroyama)
-----
Jk16w Kotoninsei (Sadogatake)
Jk17w Kotonoshima (Sadogatake)

Tosayutaka is looking good again after last basho's disaster performance, although Tochimaru is no pushover and has done quite well cleaning up the bottom area of makushita so far. Former high school star Masunoumi also looks like he may finally have figured things out, so this should be an interesting yusho race in makushita. Wakanoshima of course has even a potential juryo debut riding on his continued success.

In sandanme the Sakaigawa duo should be in the driver's seat - protected from facing each other they're next going against lower-ranked Aratoshi and Karatsuumi, and while both of these have makushita experience, neither has looked all that inspiring; Aratoshi just isn't very good, quite honestly, and Karatsuumi is still labouring with the knee problems that have caused him to drop to mid-sandanme in the first place. The third matchup between this year's debutants Kakehashi and Baraki is arguably the most interesting bout in the next round here.

For the jonidan division I'm probably not spoiling too much by saying that it should be Keitenkai all the way. I can't see him be put into any danger by whomever he will face in his final two bouts, whether it be the remaining unbeaten jonidan guys or perhaps the winner of Kakehashi/Baraki.

And down in jonokuchi we appear to be headed towards a same-stable playoff between two Sadogatake rikishi on an injury revival. Kotoninsei should be the much stronger one though. I wouldn't be too surprised if Kotonoshima (who's just a mid-jonidan guy) still gets knocked off and doesn't actually make it to 7-0, although it needs to be said that the selection of potential 4-1/5-1 opponents in jonokuchi/low jonidan is pretty dire so he might survive anyway. Jk7e Tochisato is probably the biggest threat, and perhaps he's already been chosen for the next bout. (Impossible to tell from the Day 11 torikumi.)

Edited by Asashosakari
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And down in jonokuchi we appear to be headed towards a same-stable playoff between two Sadogatake rikishi on an injury revival.

Off-topic, but heck. Things are really extreme opposites, on the banzuke's extreme opposites.

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Day 11:

The sekiwake pair picked up not entirely unexpected losses against the two yokozuna, and for Tochiozan things are getting quite dicey now. (Trivia question to the conspiracy theorists: If senshuraku sees 9-5 Goeido vs 7-7 Tochiozan, who's winning?) Okinoumi on the other hand sports a positive record for the first time since Day 3 after beating Kyokutenho (who is now MK) today. Unfortunately Osh's demotion will probably mean he's stuck at komusubi even if Tochiozan drops.

Toyonoshima solidified his claims for the open komusubi slot by beating top-ranked Myogiryu. With Aminishiki winning over Shohozan both M1's are now 5-6. Aoiyama lost his third bout in a row and has given way to Chiyotairyu and Ikioi as better candidates for a possible jump to komusubi from a low rank.

O2 Kotooshu 1-3-7 (x)
6-5 Goeido S Tochiozan 4-7
(x) 2-9 Shohozan K Okinoumi 6-5

5-6 Myogiryu M1 Aminishiki 5-6
(x) 3-8 Kyokutenho M2 Toyonoshima 6-5
M3 Takekaze 5-6
M4
7-4 Aoiyama M5 Kaisei 6-5
9-2 Chiyotairyu M6 Ikioi 8-3


---

Hands up everyone who thought Jokoryu would be one of the most troubled rikishi in low makuuchi this basho...well, I didn't. It's true, however, after a four-bout losing streak he's now the only one who conceivably needs to win 3 of his last 4 matches to remain in the top division. Tenkaiho avoided that scenario by beating Takayasu in a pretty depressing bout today, but winning 2 more is far from a certainty for him on his current form. Yoshikaze and Tokushoryu join him in needing two more wins.

Kyokushuho is now out of danger thanks to beating Jokoryu.

Down in juryo Chiyootori not only maintains his spot atop the yusho arasoi, today's victory against Sotairyu also means he's assured a makuuchi return. Kagamio looks to be next in line - after winning four of his last five he's now just one successful bout away from a top flight debut. Lots more guys are still in contention, although only Terunofuji has a reasonably strong claim.

(Question: I forgot all the so-many-wins-to-go annotations by mistake yesterday, but now I'm actually wondering if the leaner Day 10 format is preferable to the format below... Any thoughts/wishes/preferences?)

M8 Tenkaiho 2-9 (2)
M9
(1) 4-7 Tokitenku M10 Kotoyuki 4-3-4 (x)
M11
(3) 3-8 Jokoryu M12
(2) 4-7 Yoshikaze M13 Gagamaru 5-6 (1)
(o) 7-4 Kyokushuho M14 Tokushoryu 5-6 (2)
M15 Osunaarashi 6-5 (1)
(x) intai Aran M16 Tamaasuka 2-9 (x)

(1) 7-4 Kagamio J1 Takanoiwa 5-6 (3)
(o) 9-2 Chiyootori J2 Azumaryu 5-6 (4)
(2) 7-4 Terunofuji J3 Chiyonokuni 6-5 (3)
J4 Asahisho 7-4 (3)
(4) 6-5 Homarefuji J5 Wakanosato 6-5 (4)
(3) 8-3 Satoyama J6
J7
J8 Chiyoo 8-3 (4)


---

It was a mixed bag in lower juryo today, headlined by Daikiho delivering a dominant performance against high-ranked Chiyonokuni and Daido ensuring his recent slide won't take him to makushita (not this basho anyway). Wakakoyu and Tokushinho were also on the winning side, as was Tanzo with a desperately needed victory over makushita visitor Kawanari.

Seiro and Oiwato on the other hand lost (against Tokushinho and Daido) and still need 2 wins, and so does shin-juryo Higonojo who seemingly has run out of steam a bit after his 5-1 start. Sokokurai and Kimurayama were further losers on the day but are in somewhat less immediate danger.

Everybody in the top five makushita ranks was in action today, but we're not much the wiser in our search for promotable rikishi. Kitaharima is out of the race now after losing a somewhat messy bout to Takanoyama; the Czech maintains his chances for a quick return to the salaried ranks. Tochihiryu also improved to 3-3 at the expense of Nionoumi, and Kawanari finds himself on that record as well after his aforementioned loss in juryo. In short, just about everything from an extreme crunch to a gaping void of promotion candidates is still possible now.

Meanwhile, Wakanoshima's zensho hopes were dashed, so he's out of the running.

(1) 3-8 Tokushinho J7 Sokokurai 3-8 (1)
J8
(2) 3-8 Oiwato J9 Daikiho 4-7 (1)
J10 Daido 6-5 (o)
(1) 5-6 Wakakoyu J11 Kimurayama 5-6 (1)
(2) 5-6 Seiro J12 Kotomisen 2-9 (x)
J13 Tanzo 4-7 (3)
(2) 6-5 Higonojo J14 Tochinoshin kyujo (x)

(x) 2-4 Kitaharima Ms1 Arawashi 5-1 (o)
3-3 Tochihiryu Ms2 Takanoyama 3-3
3-3 Kawanari Ms3
Ms4 Sakigake 4-2
4-2 Sadanoumi Ms5 Nionoumi 2-4 (x)
3-2 Sagatsukasa Ms6 Kihonoumi 3-2
...
(x) 5-1 Wakanoshima Ms14


Our makushitan contenders get their 7th round started early, as Sakigake and Sadanoumi are making juryo appearances against Tanzo and Kotomisen respectively tomorrow. Tokushinho and Wakakoyu will meet shortly after, with the winner being free of any demotion worries.

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Yusho race update:

Ms14e Wakanoshima (Shibatayama) 5-1

Ms21w Masunoumi (Chiganoura) 6-0

Ms48e Tosayutaka (Tokitsukaze) 6-0

Ms52w Tochimaru (Kasugano) 5-1

Should be a straight-forward decider on Day 13. I'm not sure I'd declare Tosayutaka the obvious favourite here - he's doing competent sumo, but he's not exactly dominating.

Sd7w Hochiyama (Sakaigawa) 6-0

Sd20e Shineiyama (Sakaigawa) 6-0

Sd41e Aratoshi (Irumagawa) 5-1

Sd65w Karatsuumi (Tamanoi) 5-1

Sd81w Kakehashi (Hakkaku) 5-1

Sd90w Baraki (Shikihide) 6-0

The two Sakaigawa rikishi prevailed, although Shineiyama had to go through a looong bout (with separate mawashi fixing breaks on each guy) against Karatsuumi. Baraki won the rookie matchup over Kakehashi, also in a longish affair, which now leaves quite a torikumi conundrum...he's arguably ranked too low to be matched up directly with either one of the Sakaigawa pair. Potential problem here: It looks likely that jonidan will have only two rikishi at 6-0, in which case it'll be a bit silly to pair up Baraki with a jonidan opponent, too. In other words, all the standard solutions might not be much good this time. (I guess they'll probably do Shineiyama-Baraki despite the massive difference in rank...)

Only one 5-0 matchup in the lowest two divisions so far; Zendaisho beat Hiroshima. More on the situation down here after tomorrow's action. Incidentally, Kotonoshima has been given a very beatable 4-1 opponent.

Edited by Asashosakari
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This is legendary stuff. You should be doing this kind of analysis on whatever professionally.

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I take the blame for Jokoryu's performance. I dropped Ikioi from my office pool after the last two basho and switched to Jokoryu for Kyushuu and...yeah, clearly my fault.

Any bets on whether Chiyotairyu keeps up his strong performance to finish the basho, now that the possibility of komusubi and marriage has arisen?

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I've always seen Chiyotairyu as Sanyaku material. Good to see how he's coping with the recent health problems.

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(Question: I forgot all the so-many-wins-to-go annotations by mistake yesterday, but now I'm actually wondering if the leaner Day 10 format is preferable to the format below... Any thoughts/wishes/preferences?)

I do get why some might prefer the cleaner format with just the o and x markers, but personally I prefer having the 'magic number' present as I find it handy as an at-a-glance guide to who needs what. Either way this is quality stuff, so thanks for doing it!

The two Sakaigawa rikishi prevailed, although Shineiyama had to go through a looong bout (with separate mawashi fixing breaks on each guy) against Karatsuumi.

And here I thought that Shineiyama's slightly odd sonkyo posture was the result of having his mawashi on too tight! (Laughing...)

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Especially for someone with less experience and knowledge about sumo (like me) these numbers are very helpfull to get an overview about the situation each rikishi is struggling with.

Thank's a lot for your work and keep on going.

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Baraki won the rookie matchup over Kakehashi, also in a longish affair, which now leaves quite a torikumi conundrum...he's arguably ranked too low to be matched up directly with either one of the Sakaigawa pair. Potential problem here: It looks likely that jonidan will have only two rikishi at 6-0, in which case it'll be a bit silly to pair up Baraki with a jonidan opponent, too. In other words, all the standard solutions might not be much good this time. (I guess they'll probably do Shineiyama-Baraki despite the massive difference in rank...)

And indeed, that's what's happened. The jonidan 6-0 pair has been pitted against each other. So Hochiyama has been fed a 5-1 Ms55 in form of Rendaiyama while Shineiyama and Baraki tussle it out for the zensho (and possible yusho in case Hochiyama falls) despite the massive 70 ranks between them.

This is going to be a very interesting day 13 for lower divisions.

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And indeed, that's what's happened. The jonidan 6-0 pair has been pitted against each other. So Hochiyama has been fed a 5-1 Ms55 in form of Rendaiyama while Shineiyama and Baraki tussle it out for the zensho (and possible yusho in case Hochiyama falls) despite the massive 70 ranks between them.

It's arguably the least-worst solution as it at least guarantees a zensho record in sandanme. I did a cursory check yesterday and this indeed appears to be the sandanme 6-0 matchup with the biggest ranking gap in the Heisei era (I didn't go back further since the data isn't complete). They've had occasional matches with gaps between 60 and 65 ranks before though, in at least one case with the same scenario: two high-ranked 6-0's from the same stable and the third one near the bottom of the division.

Rounding up what happened in the lowest two divisions:

Jd13w Keitenkai (Onomatsu) 6-0

Jd44w Hokutogo (Hakkaku) 5-1

Jd49w Zendaisho (Takadagawa) 6-0

Jd73w Hiroshima (Fujishima) 5-1

Jd77e Wakakoki (Shikoroyama) 5-1

-----

Jk16w Kotoninsei (Sadogatake) 6-0

Jk17w Kotonoshima (Sadogatake) 5-1

Unsurprisingly Keitenkai decided that Hokutogo hoku had to go, and Wakakoki was knocked out of the zensho races by sandanme-strength Kotoninsei. His stablemate Kotonoshima on the other hand lost a fairly one-sided bout against 17-year-old Ashitakayama who before this basho had a 35-49 career record and had never posted more than 4 wins in any tournament.

Anything other than victories for Keitenkai and Kotoninsei would be a huge surprise now. As Koorifuu already mentioned jonidan will see the direct decider, while Kotoninsei goes against 5-1 rookie jonidan Inanofuji...should be just a formality for the 28-year-old veteran, there's no sugarcoating it.

Sandanme and makushita will provide some suspense though. Shineiyama should be the favourite against Baraki, but the 160 cm "tall" newcomer can be quite unorthodox at times and Shineiyama displays all the hallmarks of a typical low-upside collegiate guy including a certain lack of creativity in his sumo. I wouldn't rule out a surprise. Rendaiyama isn't one I've paid all that much attention to so I'm not sure what to expect, but his kimarite profile indicates lots of yori and oshi with very little evasive stuff or throwing sumo so it should be a nice head-on clash with Hochiyama at the very least. I dare say Hochiyama is the favourite though based on his strongly resurgent form this basho. (Obligatory reminder: He started his crash down the rankings just one juryo basho short of qualifying for oyakata status.)

I'm tempted to root for the do-beya playoff, but I've already become a Baraki fan, so...I'll go for the Hochiyama-Baraki playoff as my personal wish. (Even though I suspect Baraki will be totally blown out in January if he clinches the makushita promotion with a 7-0.)

Edited by Asashosakari

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Magic numbers it is, then - many thanks for the feedback!

Both sekiwake were unable to topple their yokozuna opponents, with Tochiozan having the decidedly better bout of the two, which probably makes it all the more frustrating for him that he's make-koshi now. I think it's now most likely that we'll have only two sekiwake next basho, the only question is whether Kotooshu will be joined by Goeido or somebody else.

The komusubi slots are a lot more in flux for the moment as Okinoumi lost a big match against Toyonoshima and still needs to win two out of three to achieve kachikoshi (and he probably won't get an easy ride). Toyonoshima is now the highest-ranked strong candidate for any open slot that might materialize after East-side maegashira hitto Myogiryu dropped (literally) to 5-7 at the meddling hands of Takekaze. Aoiyama, Chiyotairyu and Ikioi continue to lurk further down and are closer together than ever after today's results. Kaisei on the other hand should be out of the race now after losing to Tokitenku.

O2 Kotooshu 1-3-8 (x)

6-6 Goeido S Tochiozan 4-8 (d)

(x) 3-9 Shohozan K Okinoumi 6-6

5-7 Myogiryu M1 Aminishiki 6-6

M2 Toyonoshima 7-5

M3 Takekaze 6-6

M4

8-4 Aoiyama M5 Kaisei 6-6 (x)

9-3 Chiyotairyu M6 Ikioi 9-3

The four yokozuna and ozeki are busy with each other starting tomorrow, so all the sanyaku contenders will see plenty of action against each other now. Day 13 gets the ball rolling with Goeido-Chiyotairyu, Tochiozan-Toyonoshima (which could seal Ozan's complete exit from sanyaku), and Okinoumi-Ikioi. As already remarked (and puzzled) about in the GKA game thread the other joi-jin rikishi are slumming it against pretty low-ranked opposition, but I suspect that's just to save the remaining potential intra-joi matchups for the final two days.

---

Jokoryu is not only still the most troubled lower makuuchi rikishi, he arguably needs to post three straight wins now if he wants to keep his spot in the top ranks. Today's bout looked like he just didn't have any answers at all, and that's not a good sign when your opponent is somebody like Chiyootori who's not exactly known for an overly creative style of sumo.

Tokitenku and Gagamaru should be safe now after beating Kaisei and Fujiazuma respectively. The only other one to win was Yoshikaze. Tokushoryu lost against juryo-bound Tamaasuka and it appears that the pixie dust he'd been sprinkled with about six months ago finally has stopped working again. Tenkaiho looks completely out of it this basho and I dare say he's only marginally less in danger than Jokoryu.

The potentially good news for all the aforementioned is that the pressure from juryo isn't all that strong after all, and the most likely outcome right now seems to be that we'll have bunches both of borderline demotees and borderline promotees, which would give the banzuke committee lots of discretion for the next rankings.

We do have our honest to goodness second promotee now with Kagamio who improved to 8-4 against Sokokurai. That at least covers Aran's and Tamaasuka's spots. Terunofuji is in a very good position after vanquishing Sotairyu today, and Takanoiwa has apparently decided he does want to play a role in the promotion race after all, and has improved from 4-6 to 6-6 of late. In addition, Chiyonokuni is also "only" two wins away from a promotable record.

Azumaryu and Homarefuji lost and are already in luck-needed territory.

M8 Tenkaiho 2-10 (2)

M9

(o) 5-7 Tokitenku M10 Kotoyuki 4-3-5 (x)

M11

(3) 3-9 Jokoryu M12

(1) 5-7 Yoshikaze M13 Gagamaru 6-6 (o)

M14 Tokushoryu 5-7 (2)

M15 Osunaarashi 6-6 (1)

(x) intai Aran M16 Tamaasuka 3-9 (x)

(o) 8-4 Kagamio J1 Takanoiwa 6-6 (2)

(o) 10-2 Chiyootori J2 Azumaryu 5-7 (?)

(1) 8-4 Terunofuji J3 Chiyonokuni 7-5 (2)

J4 Asahisho 7-5 (3)

(?) 6-6 Homarefuji J5 Wakanosato 7-5 (3)

(3) 8-4 Satoyama J6

J7

J8 Chiyoo 9-3 (3)

The most interesting match tomorrow: A nice crossover bout between Yoshikaze and Terunofuji (winner clinches a makuuchi spot).

---

The situation in lower juryo was cleaned up a lot today: Tokushinho, Daikiho and Kimurayama are ensured to stay in juryo for another basho, while many other candidates now require 2 wins in 3 days. Among these are Oiwato (losing against Kimurayama), Seiro and Higonojo, all three of them on three-bout losing streaks. They're joined by Tanzo who beat his third makushita opponent of the basho and may yet survive. Other rikishi in danger include Sokokurai and Wakakoyu (beaten by Tokushinho).

The unfortunate makushitan who lost to Tanzo was Sakigake who is already finished for the basho and may miss out on the promotion after all. The only silver lining of the day for him was that Sadanoumi was also unsuccessful in the next bout (against Kotomisen) and stayed behind him in the promotion queue. The two Ms6's had opposite results today, with which Sagatsukasa is now completely out of the running, while Kihonoumi can still harbour some small hopes for a lucky promotion. All will depend on how the trio of 3-3 rikishi does.

(o) 4-8 Tokushinho J7 Sokokurai 3-9 (1)

J8

(2) 3-9 Oiwato J9 Daikiho 5-7 (o)

J10

(1) 5-7 Wakakoyu J11 Kimurayama 6-6 (o)

(2) 5-7 Seiro J12 Kotomisen 3-9 (x)

J13 Tanzo 5-7 (2)

(2) 6-6 Higonojo J14 Tochinoshin kyujo (x)

Ms1 Arawashi 5-1 (o)

3-3 Tochihiryu Ms2 Takanoyama 3-3

3-3 Kawanari Ms3

Ms4 Sakigake 4-3

4-3 Sadanoumi Ms5

(x) 3-3 Sagatsukasa Ms6 Kihonoumi 4-2

Only one direct matchup of demotion candidates tomorrow with Tanzo-Sokokurai, and all the makushita pretenders are being saved up for the last two days.

Edited by Asashosakari
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With so many uncertainty on the top of makushita, Arawashi aside, and Wakanoshima's failure to take the 7 wins... I even figured the Ms9 pair of Amuru and Kansei (both 4-1 at the time) had a chance if they got 6-1. Both duly lost on the day afterwards. Now there's no way around it: even if Kihonoumi seals promotion with a 5-2 (with a juryo visit to prove his worth!) at least one out of Takanoyama, Tochihiryu, Kawanari and Sakigake is going up with an unconvincing 4-3.

I'm going to cheer for Tanzo, though. If he put the fighting spirit to save his mummy self's sekitorihood, crushing Kawanari's and Sakigake's juryo dreams (for now) he sure deserves it.

EDIT:

A pair of makushita matchups I find interesting:

Ms13e Takatoshi 3-3
Ms15w Iwasaki 3-3

Ms16w Kyokutaisei 3-3

Ms14w Dewahayate 3-3

Two promising young juryo pretenders will be still within reach in January, another two will have to settle for a minimum of two (overachieving) bashos. In a few hours we'll see.

Edited by Koorifuu

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I was gazing at the last promotions on a 7-0 record from sd90-95 just to see where big Baraki woud land and to my surprise it is a class of some solid sekitori, more than the ones from other brackets. Good performances in both Jonokuchi&Jonidan will send one to that region, it is the explanation I've found. Anyway, his rank will low as anticipated, but probably too high for him.

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I was gazing at the last promotions on a 7-0 record from sd90-95 just to see where big Baraki woud land and to my surprise it is a class of some solid sekitori, more than the ones from other brackets. Good performances in both Jonokuchi&Jonidan will send one to that region, it is the explanation I've found.

I'm pretty sure that's just statistical noise, beyond the fact that rikishi who get a 7-0 at any point in their career are more likely to be future sekitori than those who never do.

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Related to your current topic, I've went out to check some unqueriable data. And what I found out is interesting.

There are only 3 current makuuchi rikishi to have failed so far to take any yusho at any division. Tochinowaka, Fujiazuma (!), Aminishiki (!!!!!).

At juryo:

Kagamio

Azumaryu

Yoshiazuma (not surprising since these 3 have had a pretty slow rise up the ranks)

Chiyoo (!)

Oiwato (being a makushita TD who never got demoted to sandanme helped)

Kotomisen (even less surprising than Yoshiazuma)

Chiyomaru

So it's pretty much confirmed that yusho's at lower divisions are a good sign to ever getting sekitorihood.

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I suppose my crystal ball descriptions of the two sandanme yusho bouts weren't too far off. :-) Yay Baraki. I'm hoping for an exciting playoff bout against Hochiyama now, though I still think this makushita debut he's earned now is coming several basho too early. Alright, that's for January. Up in makushita - well, not to take anything away from Masunoumi (who I think is a future sekitori mainstay if he stays healthy), but Tosayutaka made awfully hard work of beating him. Big jump up the ranks coming up for the ex-maegashira, but I can't say he even looks to be at clear juryo strength now, let alone good enough to get back to makuuchi.

Oh yeah, and Kotoninsei and Keitenkai secured their respective divisional yusho easily as expected

---

Both sekiwake and Okinoumi prevailed over their joi challengers Chiyotairyu, Toyonoshima and Ikioi, which keeps up the suspense in the sanyaku race. Tochiozan maintains his komusubi chances for now. The two maegashira-hitto are at the same record again (Myogiryu with a win, Aminishiki with a loss), and Takekaze and Aoiyama were victorious. There's honestly not much between all 7 candidates now, taking both rank and record into account.

If the next sanyaku is Se Goeido, Sw Kotooshu, Ke Okinoumi, Kw Tochiozan, things may get awfully crowded in the high maegashira ranks at the current pace...

O2 Kotooshu 1-3-9 (x)
7-6 Goeido S Tochiozan 5-8 (d)
(x) 4-9 Shohozan K Okinoumi 7-6

6-7 Myogiryu M1 Aminishiki 6-7
M2 Toyonoshima 7-6
M3 Takekaze 7-6
M4
9-4 Aoiyama M5
9-4 Chiyotairyu M6 Ikioi 9-4


Tochiozan gets a somewhat lucky assignment against MK-trending Kaisei tomorrow, while Goeido and Okinoumi face another pair of direct challengers, this time Aoiyama and Chiyotairyu. The third joi(ish) maegashira seeking double digits, Ikioi, finds himself set against Osunaarashi from way down the division. Aminishiki also receives a low-ranked opponent in already-KK Tamawashi, Myogiryu meets recent joi presence Takarafuji, and Toyonoshima and Takekaze battle out the kachikoshi amongst each other.

Losing is arguably not an option for any of the 7 contenders as that would likely put them behind at least one non-losing competitor for good. (Or make them outright MK in the case of the M1's, of course.)

---

Day 13 has served to clear up lower makuuchi significantly - Yoshikaze and Osunaarashi both got their last needed win, and everybody else lost. That means Jokoryu is now already at the mercy of the next banzuke session, the only silver lining being the lack of obvious promotion candidates. He'll still need to win both remaining bouts to even get to that banzuke purgatory, though.

Much the same goes for Tenkaiho and Tokushoryu, except that back-to-back wins would definitely save them, and just one might be enough for last-minute survival.

I've "upgraded" Kotoyuki to question mark status now since he's actually in equal or better position than each of Tenkaiho/Jokoryu/Tokushoryu who fails to get those two weekend wins, and thus may yet survive himself.

Our only promotion contender for the day, Terunofuji, lost a quick one against wily Yoshikaze up in makuuchi, so we're still at just two definites. And he remains the only candidate for tomorrow, too, thanks to a Takanoiwa loss (he's going to blow it on senshuraku again, isn't he?) and Chiyonokuni's outright injury withdrawal.

On the upside, everybody who needed to go 3-for-3 before the day now needs to go 2-for-2, as Asahisho, Wakanosato, Satoyama and Chiyoo all stayed in the race with wins. Surely one of them is going to keep winning?

Yesterday's two question-marked candidates went opposite ways, with Homarefuji maintaining his small chance of a makuuchi return by knocking Chiyomaru out of the yusho lead, while Azumaryu fell to makekoshi against Asahisho.

M8 Tenkaiho 2-11 (2)
M9
M10 Kotoyuki 4-3-6 (?)
M11
(?) 3-10 Jokoryu M12
(o) 6-7 Yoshikaze M13
M14 Tokushoryu 5-8 (2)
M15 Osunaarashi 7-6 (o)
(x) intai Aran M16 Tamaasuka 3-10 (x)

(o) 8-5 Kagamio J1 Takanoiwa 6-7 (2)
(o) 11-2 Chiyootori J2 Azumaryu 5-8 (x)
(1) 8-5 Terunofuji J3 Chiyonokuni 7-6 (x)
J4 Asahisho 8-5 (2)
(?) 7-6 Homarefuji J5 Wakanosato 8-5 (2)
(2) 9-4 Satoyama J6
J7
J8 Chiyoo 10-3 (2)


Things don't get much happier for Jokoryu as he gets pulled up against an underperforming high-ranker again tomorrow, this time Takayasu. Assuming the banzuke elevator is spacious enough, he can share the ride with Tenkaiho who faces Kyokutenho. Terunofuji already takes his third trip to the top division this basho, and perhaps Tokushoryu will finally be a maegashira he's able to beat. Intra-juryo matchups further below since they're mixing and matching again.

---

In lower juryo two more endangered rikishi got rid of their worries today; Wakakoyu quickly slapped down Kimurayama while Sokokurai dispatched Tanzo with a picture-perfect utchari. That puts Tanzo's back against the wall again. Oiwato is in a similarly unenviable position now as he ran his losing streak to 4. Seiro and Higonojo avoided doing the same, however, and can hope to partake in juryo again next basho, needing just one more victory now.

Since dropping to 0-8 Kotomisen has won four out of five bouts, and incredibly he may actually stay in juryo after all if he wins the next two as well. Like his injured makuuchi stablemate I've changed his status to a question mark for now. (Keep in mind that intai'ed Aran's spot also needs to be filled by a promotion from makushita.)

Speaking of makushita, nothing happened there since nothing was scheduled, so Arawashi had the spotlight all to himself and he gratefully improved to 6-1 today. Good news for his next basho since he should actually be ranked high enough to survive a small makekoshi without dropping straight back to makushita, unlike his previous three forays into the paid ranks (J13w, J14w, J14e).

J7 Sokokurai 4-9 (o)
J8
(2) 3-10 Oiwato J9
J10
(o) 6-7 Wakakoyu J11
(1) 6-7 Seiro J12 Kotomisen 4-9 (?)
J13 Tanzo 5-8 (2)
(1) 7-6 Higonojo J14 Tochinoshin kyujo (x)

Ms1 Arawashi 6-1 (o)
3-3 Tochihiryu Ms2 Takanoyama 3-3
3-3 Kawanari Ms3
Ms4 Sakigake 4-3
4-3 Sadanoumi Ms5
Ms6 Kihonoumi 4-2


Chiyonokuni's kyujo means that the crossover bouts have been rearranged and we're only getting one matchup tomorrow - and it's the one that matters the least as already-MK Kitaharima goes against Kotomisen. The 3-3 trio gets saved up altogether for senshuraku. (Though as an off-the-wall choice they could also match up Tochihiryu and Kawanari directly to guarantee one promotable rikishi out of this bunch.) Kihonoumi also is in action on Day 14, and has gotten arguably the worst-possible 4-2 opponent in the higher ranks with Amuru.

Up in juryo the "mix everyone who is still going for something" strategy is in full effect again. We've got:

Chasing Yusho vs Chasing Promotion: J13e Chiyomaru (10-3) - J6e Satoyama (9-4), J8w Chiyoo (10-3) - J1e Kagamio (8-5) [okay, Satoyama is even kinda sorta in the yusho race himself, and Kagamio is already guaranteed to go up - but any further win means a cushion for next time]

Chasing Yusho vs Avoiding Demotion: J2e Chiyootori (11-2) - J14e Higonojo (7-6)

Chasing Promotion vs Avoiding Demotion: J4w Asahisho (8-5) - J13w Tanzo (5-8), J1w Takanoiwa (6-7) - J9e Oiwato (3-10)

Chasing KK vs Avoiding Demotion: J10w Daido (7-6) - J12e Seiro (6-7)

Chasing Promotion vs Avoiding MK: J5e Homarefuji (7-6) - J9w Daikiho (6-7), J5w Wakanosato (8-5) - J11w Kimurayama (6-7)

Not much to complain about with that scheduling, especially since having three Kokonoe rikishi at the top of the leaderboard makes things a bit messy.

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You keep mentioning makushita debut for Baraki. He's sd80. That would be an huge frickin' jump. Is that really conceivable?

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Any 7-0 in sandanme results in promotion to makushita. He'll be squeezed in somewhere at the very bottom of the division.

Edited by Asashosakari
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I really enjoy the analysis in this thread. On Aminishiki (a frequent Sekiwake/Komosubi) NEVER winning a yusho at any division -- the list of list of ozeki/sekiwake/komosubi to never win must be quite short. Thanks!

-shimodahito

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Takanoyama (mk2 West, 3-3) against Higonojo (J14 East, 7-7) tomorrow would be interesting, wouldn't it?

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The strangest thing about the strange torikumi for me is that they didn't match Aminishiki and Toyonoshima. At the time it was announced, they still could have both been 7-7 on Senshuraku.

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