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Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion discussion Nagoya 2013

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With Doitsuyama's running updates sadly absent this basho, I'm starting a little early here this basho. For now I'm limiting the various standings only to "likely" rikishi (otherwise I could list the entire sekitori ranks), in this case meaning those who need only 5-4 or less for promotion, or need 4-5 or more to avoid demotion. At least that's the theory...

We could be in for another bunch of very lucky komusubi promotees; the four lower sanyaku are all struggling, and the list of contenders isn't especially long at the moment, though that's partially a reflection of the meatgrinder facing the top-rankers early as usual.

2-4 Myogiryu S Goeido 1-5

1-5 Shohozan K Tokitenku 1-5

M1 Takayasu 4-2

3-3 Tochiozan M2

5-1 Chiyotairyu M3

With Baruto and now also Chiyonokuni and Tochinoshin kyujo there's going to be no shortage of open slots in makuuchi, but again there aren't many high-ranked juryo rikishi making a credible push so far. (And the list below is already selected generously...with the "5-4 or less" standard applied strictly, only Takanoiwa and Tochinowaka would be listed.) If things persist we're likely to get some lucky stays, e.g. M14 6-9 and the like.

ky. Baruto M6

...

M10 Chiyonokuni 2-4

0-6 Daido M11 Tochinoshin 3-3

M12

2-4 Tamawashi M13

2-4 Masunoyama M14 Tamaasuka 3-3

3-3 Wakanosato M15 Sokokurai 3-3

3-3 Tokushoryu M16 Shotenro 4-2

4-2 Takanoiwa J1

J2 Kyokushuho 3-3

J3 Tochinowaka 4-2

4-2 Kagamio J4

J5

J6 Homasho 5-1

The race between juryo and makushita is wide open as always at this stage. Debutant Kotomisen is in the most dire straights, already needing a 6-3 the rest of the way to stay in the sekitori ranks. Kizenryu, Kotokuni and probably also Chiyoo need to go 4-0 to figure into the promotion race and should be long shots (ditto for the 3-0's other than Wakamisho, of course), leaving us with 6 credible promotion contenders.

2-4 Oniarashi J10

J11 Takanoyama 1-5

2-4 Tochihiryu J12

2-4 Chiyoarashi J13

3-3 Yoshiazuma J14 Kotomisen 2-4

2-1 Chiyomaru Ms1 Sagatsukasa 1-2

0-3 Kizenryu Ms2 Akiseyama 2-1

1-2 Chiyoo Ms3 Kitaharima 2-2

3-0 Wakamisho Ms4 Hamaguchi 2-1

1-2 Kotokuni Ms5

3-0 Sakigake Ms6

...

3-0 Sensho Ms13

Ms14

3-0 Kairyu Ms15

Next update after Day 8, and then from Day 10 onward as usual.

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(Same deal as before, only "likely" rikishi = 4-3 or less to secure promotion, 3-4 or more to avoid demotion.)

Back-to-back victories for Myogiryu mean I'll probably have to keep waiting for the first all-sanyaku clearout since 1984, but the other three guys in the lower titled ranks still look to be on the way to maegashira status. The trio contending for the spots has remained the same, although Takayasu seems to have cooled down a bit and his sanyaku debut no longer looks like the sure thing it seemed a couple of days ago.

4-4 Myogiryu S Goeido 2-6

2-6 Shohozan K Tokitenku 1-7

M1 Takayasu 4-4

5-3 Tochiozan M2

6-2 Chiyotairyu M3

In the demotion sweepstakes the yellow light has flipped on the M13 rank - East-sider Tamawashi is in fairly good standing now after winning his last two, while Jokoryu has gone the opposite way with three straight losses. Daido and Tamaasuka also went 0-2 since the previous update, Masunoyama added two victories.

On the juryo side Tenkaiho has played himself into contendership and got added to the table. Tochinowaka also improved his position, the other quartet all went 1-1.

ky. Baruto M6

...

M10 Chiyonokuni 2-4-2

0-8 Daido M11 Tochinoshin 3-3-2

M12

M13 Jokoryu 3-5

4-4 Masunoyama M14 Tamaasuka 3-5

4-4 Wakanosato M15 Sokokurai 4-4

4-4 Tokushoryu M16 Shotenro 5-3

5-3 Takanoiwa J1

J2 Kyokushuho 4-4

J3 Tochinowaka 6-2

5-3 Kagamio J4

J5 Tenkaiho 6-2

J6 Homasho 6-2

Down in lower juryo Oniarashi seems headed for his 5th MK in as many juryo tournaments after falling to 2-6 with two losses. Tochihiryu shares that record (and Day 7/8 performance), but is in even more danger being ranked two ranks lower. Oldie Yoshiazuma helped himself with two wins (for three in a row, actually) and is the only demotion candidate among these six who only needs a 3-4 now. It's still early doors, but I'd say we're likely to see at least three slots open up this basho.

And as it stands there are also three rather good candidates for promotion. Chiyomaru won his third yesterday and only needs one more for his sekitori debut. Akiseyama sports a 3-1 record as well and could also be in a good enough position at Ms2w to need only one win now. Lastly, Wakamisho dispensed with fellow yusho contender (and fellow Mongolian) Sakigake in a hard-fought bout today and might already be done with the hard part of a promotion zone 7-0 - his remaining three opponents are likely all coming from quite a bit further down the rankings. Ms15e Kairyu will be starting things off against Wakamisho tomorrow after he beat Sensho in the other top 15 3-0 match. (Then again, Wakamisho's 6-0 opponent could well end up being Amuru which probably wouldn't be such a foregone conclusion as Ms6 vs Ms41 normally indicates. In any case, even 6-1 should be enough for him to earn promotion.)

2-6 Oniarashi J10

J11 Takanoyama 2-6

2-6 Tochihiryu J12

3-5 Chiyoarashi J13

5-3 Yoshiazuma J14 Kotomisen 3-5

3-1 Chiyomaru Ms1 Sagatsukasa 1-3

1-3 Kizenryu Ms2 Akiseyama 3-1

2-2 Chiyoo Ms3 Kitaharima 2-2

4-0 Wakamisho Ms4 Hamaguchi 2-2

Ms5

3-1 Sakigake Ms6

...

4-0 Kairyu Ms15

Edited by Asashosakari
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Onward into daily updates...

It still looks as though 3 sanyaku slots will open up as Goeido and Shohozan are doing better now that they're done with high-ranked opponents, but not good enough. Tokitenku is outright makekoshi already. Takayasu, Tochiozan and Chiyotairyu remain the best candidates, but as they're likely to meet many of the lower-ranked contenders in the final five days this could change quickly.

5-5 Myogiryu S Goeido 3-7

3-7 Shohozan K Tokitenku 2-8 (x)

M1 Takayasu 6-4

7-3 Tochiozan M2

6-4 Chiyotairyu M3

M4

M5

M6 Okinoumi 7-3

M7

M8

8-2 Aoiyama M9

M10

M11

9-1 Kaisei M12

In the lower reaches of the maegashira ranks, there's just one extremely endangered rikishi in winless Daido. Most others need just 1 or 2 more wins; oddly enough the two rikishi (at M15) who need to go 3-2 are in positions where they probably can't expect much leniency if they fall one win short to finish 6-9. Together with the three seemingly guaranteed demotions of Baruto, Chiyonokuni and Tochinoshin (at least I can't see them staying) we could be looking at 5 or 6 open slots here in the end.

That said, it's really anybody's guess who would fill all those holes. Purely by the numbers the list of credible promotion contenders consists of Takanoiwa and Tochinowaka now; that's it. Everybody else needs a 4-1 or 5-0 for a promotable record, so it's safe to say we'll be having some very lucky rikishi at the end of the basho.

(x) ky. Baruto M6

...

M9 Sadanofuji 3-7 (1)

M10 Chiyonokuni 2-4-4 (x)

(5) 0-10 Daido M11 Tochinoshin 3-3-4 (x)

M12 Kotoyuki 5-5 (1)

(2) 4-6 Tamawashi M13 Jokoryu 4-6 (2)

(1) 6-4 Masunoyama M14 Tamaasuka 5-5 (2)

(3) 4-6 Wakanosato M15 Sokokurai 4-6 (3)

(2) 6-4 Tokushoryu M16 Shotenro 7-3 (1)

(1) 7-3 Takanoiwa J1 Chiyootori 3-4-3 (5)

(5) 4-6 Oiwato J2 Kyokushuho 5-5 (4)

(5) 4-6 Azumaryu J3 Tochinowaka 7-3 (2)

(5) 5-5 Kagamio J4

J5 Tenkaiho 6-4 (4)

J6 Homasho 7-3 (4)

J7 Daikiho 6-4 (5)

(5) 7-3 Asasekiryu J8

J9 Osunaarashi 7-3 (5)

...

J13 Endo 9-1 (5)

The juryo<->makushita exchange program now appears headed towards offering 4 places, perhaps 5. Tochihiryu is almost at the end of his rope already after four consecutive losses, and Takanoyama, Chiyoarashi and Kotomisen aren't in much better places. Oniarashi is also in somewhat significant danger, the rest only need wins in less than half of their remaining bouts. However, at least in Nionoumi's case even that necessary 2-3 finish might be a tough ask based on his performance so far. As always the final number of available slots will depend greatly on the results of the crossover bouts between juryo strugglers and makushita hopefuls, though.

Speaking of the latter, we have our first strong candidate in Akiseyama who achieved the KK-clinching 4th win in juryo today. However, he can't feel quite safe yet - there are still 5 rikishi who could end up ahead of him in the queue. The biggest wildcard here is low-ranked zensho chaser Kairyu, of course, who knocked off Wakamisho on Day 9. Should he survive against Asatenmai tomorrow, he's likely to get a top 5 makushita rikishi as his final yusho and promotion challenge. Sagatsukasa, Kizenryu and injured Hamaguchi have departed the promotion race now.

J4 Nionoumi 1-9 (2)

J5

(2) 2-8 Sotairyu J6

...

(3) 3-7 Oniarashi J10

J11 Takanoyama 2-8 (4)

(5) 2-8 Tochihiryu J12 Wakakoyu 6-4 (1)

(4) 3-7 Chiyoarashi J13

(2) 6-4 Yoshiazuma J14 Kotomisen 4-6 (4)

3-2 Chiyomaru Ms1 Sagatsukasa 1-4 (x)

(x) 1-4 Kizenryu Ms2 Akiseyama 4-2

3-2 Chiyoo Ms3 Kitaharima 3-2

4-1 Wakamisho Ms4 Hamaguchi 2-3 (x)

Ms5

4-1 Sakigake Ms6

...

5-0 Kairyu Ms15

Edited by Asashosakari
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Day 11:

Shohozan got taken down by Tochiozan and has freed up the second sanyaku slot. Tochiozan is KK now for a likely (but not guaranteed yet) sanyaku return. Goeido stays alive for now with his first victory in seven attempts against Takayasu. Myogiryu finds himself with more losses than wins again, but is now done with higher-ranked opponents so kachikoshi is still well in reach.

In intra-contender action Chiyotairyu beat Kaisei to maintain his position among the three most likely promotees.

I've added Ikioi and Takarafuji to the table now after their wins today, as there's really no point in not having them if Okinoumi (who was on the losing end to Ikioi) and Kaisei are still listed. It's probably just a matter of another day or two that all of these guys fall out of contention though. The by far best low-ranked case is made by Aoiyama now.

5-6 Myogiryu S Goeido 4-7

(x) 3-8 Shohozan K Tokitenku 3-8 (x)

M1 Takayasu 6-5

8-3 Tochiozan M2

7-4 Chiyotairyu M3

M4

6-5 Ikioi M5

M6 Okinoumi 7-4

7-4 Takarafuji M7

M8

9-2 Aoiyama M9

M10

M11

9-2 Kaisei M12

Tochiozan has the opportunity to secure his promotion (perhaps even to sekiwake) by sending Goeido to MK tomorrow. Several other candidates are also matched up in Myogiryu-Takayasu, Chiyotairyu-Aoiyama and Kaisei-Okinoumi.

The maegashira demotion puzzle was resolved significantly today with Sadanofuji, Kotoyuki, Masunoyama and Shotenro all reaching numerical (and this basho also actual) safety. Tokushoryu also won and at 7 wins might even be secure already as well thanks to the three kyujo demotables. Sokokurai was successful in a candidates matchup with Tamawashi, joining him at being 2 wins away from rescue. Jokoryu and Tamaasuka remain at that level as well after losses, while veteran Wakanosato is on a 4-bout losing streak and now in pretty grave danger of his first-ever makuuchi demotion that's not assisted by injury. Daido picked up loss #11 and looks headed back to juryo after 13 straight basho in makuuchi (never ranked higher than M8 - that takes some doing).

On the juryo side Takanoiwa failed in his first promotion-clinching opportunity, while Tochinowaka moved within one win as well. Among the trio of (in relative terms...) next-best contenders only Tenkaiho prevailed today.

Several rikishi fell out of numerical contention but will remain in the table as question mark candidates for now. (Likewise Daido is question-marked for now as an unlikely 4-win streak conceivably would still save him.)

(x) ky. Baruto M6

...

M9 Sadanofuji 4-7 (o)

M10 Chiyonokuni 2-4-5 (x)

(?) 0-11 Daido M11 Tochinoshin 3-3-5 (x)

M12 Kotoyuki 6-5 (o)

(2) 4-7 Tamawashi M13 Jokoryu 4-7 (2)

(o) 7-4 Masunoyama M14 Tamaasuka 5-6 (2)

(3) 4-7 Wakanosato M15 Sokokurai 5-6 (2)

(1) 7-4 Tokushoryu M16 Shotenro 8-3 (o)

(1) 7-4 Takanoiwa J1 Chiyootori 4-4-3 (4)

(4) 5-6 Oiwato J2 Kyokushuho 5-6 (4)

(?) 4-7 Azumaryu J3 Tochinowaka 8-3 (1)

(4) 6-5 Kagamio J4

J5 Tenkaiho 7-4 (3)

J6 Homasho 7-4 (4)

J7 Daikiho 6-5 (?)

(4) 8-3 Asasekiryu J8

J9 Osunaarashi 7-4 (?)

...

J13 Endo 10-1 (4)

None of the remaining demotion candidates are matched up tomorrow, while in juryo it almost doesn't matter if any of them are matched up since most promotion cases are so weak. Takanoiwa goes against Endo in what's arguably the match of the day.

The first slot in juryo has opened up after Tochihiryu lost to Sotairyu, the latter moving close to safety with that. Yoshiazuma also is just one win from safe ground after a mono-ii victory over Wakakoyu. In another intra matchup Oniarashi beat Nionoumi, leaving both two wins short. Takanoyama and Kotomisen also helped themselves, beating Osunaarashi and Homasho respectively, while Chiyoarashi and his massively taped-up legs are standing on the trapdoor now.

In makushita action the top match of the day was won by Kitaharima in convincing fashion over Chiyomaru who suddenly has to worry again despite his 3-1 start. Chiyoo lost as well and finds himself at 3-3 like his stablemate. Wakamisho on the other hand moved closer to a sekitori debut beating heavy Kawanari, although just like against Sakigake three days ago it took a last-ditch throw at the edge. Kairyu meanwhile continues to make the promotion race complicated by surviving against Asatenmai in the upper-half yusho race match. As it stands I suspect his final opponent will be Chiyomaru now.

J4 Nionoumi 1-10 (2)

J5

(1) 3-8 Sotairyu J6

...

(2) 4-7 Oniarashi J10

J11 Takanoyama 3-8 (3)

(x) 2-9 Tochihiryu J12 Wakakoyu 6-5 (1)

(4) 3-8 Chiyoarashi J13

(1) 7-4 Yoshiazuma J14 Kotomisen 5-6 (3)

3-3 Chiyomaru Ms1

Ms2 Akiseyama 4-2

3-3 Chiyoo Ms3 Kitaharima 4-2

5-1 Wakamisho Ms4

Ms5

4-1 Sakigake Ms6

...

6-0 Kairyu Ms15

In a matchup that's depressing on multiple levels we'll get Chiyoarashi against Nionoumi tomorrow. Kotomisen has received another tough call after today's Homasho match, this time meeting Osunaarashi, and Takanoyama will have to dig into his bag of tricks against similarly lanky Seiro. In makushita Sakigake will try to maintain his outside shot at promotion against Shoho (and I'm already visualizing the henka to save myself from disappointment).

Edited by Asashosakari
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Things are really, really dire at Kokonoe-beya. Nokuni and Otori having had kyujo to their names, Arashi hanging in there when he shouldn't and headed back to makushita, and Maru + O flunking their promotion chances. There's only the newlywed Meigetsuin-san to give them something positive.

Edited by Koorifuu

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Voting for Wakamisho, Sakigake and Kairyuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu!

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Day 12:

Takayasu's second-week swoon continues as a loss against Myogiryu leaves both at 6-6 now. Goeido also beat a promotion contender in Tochiozan and at 5-7 it's probably a good bet to expect him to finish at least 7-8 and still occupy a sanyaku slot in September. The other contender matches went in favour of Aoiyama and Okinoumi over Chiyotairyu and Kaisei respectively. Ikioi and Takarafuji beat the two M14's Tamaasuka and Masunoyama to stay ever so slightly in the race as well. Kaisei is probably out of the running now courtesy of successive losses against actually credible opposition (just like the other two times he started strongly), but I'll wait to remove him until it's completely clear.

6-6 Myogiryu S Goeido 5-7
(x) 4-8 Shohozan K Tokitenku 4-8 (x)

M1 Takayasu 6-6
8-4 Tochiozan M2
7-5 Chiyotairyu M3
M4
7-5 Ikioi M5
M6 Okinoumi 8-4
8-4 Takarafuji M7
M8
10-2 Aoiyama M9
M10
M11
9-3 Kaisei M12


Of the four outside candidates only Ikioi has drawn a tough-on-paper opponent with Goeido, while Okinoumi/Takarafuji/Kaisei are all slumming it against rikishi in the bottom three maegashira ranks. Tochiozan meets his second Sakaigawa sekiwake, and an intriguing matchup sees Aoiyama and Takayasu pitted against each other. Chiyotairyu has the hardest draw of the day against not-yet-KK ozeki Kakuryu.


Daido is now beyond saving at 0-12, while makuuchi debutant Tokushuryu enjoys an early KK (to my great surprise). Tamawashi was today's lucky choice for extending Daido's losing streak and is close to maintaining his makuuchi spot. Wakanosato also won, but still needs to go 2-1, same as Jokoryu, Tamaasuka and Sokokurai who were all unsuccessful today.

It didn't look like it just a couple of days ago, but Tochinowaka has become the first juryo rikishi to secure his promotion back to the top division. Takanoiwa lost against Endo and has to wait at least another day. Chiyootori looks surprisingly genki after his brief ankle injury absence and stays in the race, and Oiwato seems determined to go on a second-week winning streak just like last basho. Tenkaiho was Chiyootori's victim today but might still improve to a promotable record.

On the other hand Kagamio, Homasho, Kyokushuho and Asasekiryu are in the doldrums now after losses, needing to win all remaining bouts just to have a shot at a lucky promotion. After also scoring losses on the day Azumaryu is definitely out (being MK) and Daikiho almost certainly. Osunaarashi stays in for now.

(x) ky. Baruto M6
...
M10 Chiyonokuni 2-4-6 (x)
(x) 0-12 Daido M11 Tochinoshin 3-3-6 (x)
M12
(1) 5-7 Tamawashi M13 Jokoryu 4-8 (2)
M14 Tamaasuka 5-7 (2)
(2) 5-7 Wakanosato M15 Sokokurai 5-7 (2)
(o) 8-4 Tokushoryu M16

(1) 7-5 Takanoiwa J1 Chiyootori 5-4-3 (3)
(3) 6-6 Oiwato J2 Kyokushuho 5-7 (?)
(x) 4-8 Azumaryu J3 Tochinowaka 9-3 (o)
(?) 6-6 Kagamio J4
J5 Tenkaiho 7-5 (3)
J6 Homasho 7-5 (?)
J7 Daikiho 6-6 (x)
(?) 8-4 Asasekiryu J8
J9 Osunaarashi 8-4 (?)
...
J13 Endo 11-1 (3)


No makuuchi-juryo matches for now. All five rikishi still in demotion danger have received mid-maegashira opponents for Day 13, with Wakanosato probably getting the hardest draw in sanyaku contender Okinoumi.

The juryo match of the day will be yusho leader Endo against his closest pursuer Tochinowaka (two wins behind) - a victory by the collegiate phenom would decide the yusho race with two days to spare. Also of interest might be Osunaarashi against Asasekiryu, the loser having his promotion hopes ended for good, and Takanoiwa promotion take #3, this time against Homasho (another one who can't afford a loss here). Everybody else faces opponents from the lower half of the division.


Chiyoarashi won the dread match against Nionoumi to avoid getting demoted for now, and is joined in back-to-the-wall position by Kotomisen who lost against Osunaarashi. Sotairyu and Yoshiazuma clinched their spots with wins (and Yoshi's KK from east-jiri is almost as much of a surprise to me as Tokushoryu's at the equivalent makuuchi rank). Takanoyama won an entertaining bout against Seiro but is still far from safe, while Oniarashi and Wakakoyu lost and need to continue worrying as well.

On the makushita side only Sakigake was in action and maintained his slight shot at promotion with a win.

J4 Nionoumi 1-11 (2)
J5
(o) 4-8 Sotairyu J6
...
(2) 4-8 Oniarashi J10
J11 Takanoyama 4-8 (2)
(x) 3-9 Tochihiryu J12 Wakakoyu 6-6 (1)
(3) 4-8 Chiyoarashi J13
(o) 8-4 Yoshiazuma J14 Kotomisen 5-7 (3)

3-3 Chiyomaru Ms1
Ms2 Akiseyama 4-2
3-3 Chiyoo Ms3 Kitaharima 4-2
5-1 Wakamisho Ms4
Ms5
5-1 Sakigake Ms6
...
6-0 Kairyu Ms15


It looks like all six KK or 3-3 rikishi in the makushita promotion zone (including Ms5e Kotokuni) will be used for crossover bouts; Wakamisho and Chiyoo are starting things off tomorrow against Chiyoarashi and Kotomisen in what are must-win bouts for everybody. Sakigake gets a fairly fortunate matchup inside makushita against 12 ranks lower Asatenmai, and Kairyu goes into a very favourable straight-up yusho decider against Goshi from way down at Ms55. In juryo Nionoumi and Takanoyama are having a pre-demotion playoff with the loser then needing a 2-0 finish to avoid demotion. (In Takanoyama's case this would also open him up as another candidate for crossover matches, Nionoumi is probably ranked too high for that.)

Edited by Asashosakari
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More positions opened than candidates to fill them.

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More positions opened than candidates to fill them.

You can say that again. Maybe they should temporarily cut makuuchi to 38 spots or so as punishment for everybody not making the grade this basho...

Starting at the top as usual, however - the Sakaigawa sekiwake pair keeps up their resurgence and at least Myogiryu is now assured of being in sanyaku next basho, the only question is whether it's as sekiwake or komusubi. Goeido is one win away from the same status which would lock it down as two open spots.

Takayasu took a big (side)step towards his sanyaku debut by beating Aoiyama, while Tochiozan and Chiyotairyu lost again. As a result there's still no definite claim on any of the available slots, and the lower-ranked contenders can continue to hope for a surprise promotion. Okinoumi has jockeyed into the best position now courtesy of a victory over struggling Wakanosato; Aoiyama lost as mentioned, Ikioi was on the losing end in Goeido's bout, and Takarafuji fell to bottom maegashira Shotenro. Kaisei won against Masunoyama in the first bout of the day but is probably out of the race anyway, short of all three 7-6's and Okinoumi losing all remaining bouts.

7-6 Myogiryu S Goeido 6-7

(x) 5-8 Shohozan K Tokitenku 4-9 (x)

M1 Takayasu 7-6

8-5 Tochiozan M2

7-6 Chiyotairyu M3

M4

7-6 Ikioi M5

M6 Okinoumi 9-4

8-5 Takarafuji M7

M8

10-3 Aoiyama M9

M10

M11

10-3 Kaisei M12

Aoiyama is the latest candidate to be handed "trying to drag Goeido to MK" duties, and Ikioi (against Myogiryu) and Okinoumi (against Kakuryu) will get tested as well. Takarafuji finally gets a decent opponent in Chiyotairyu, with Tochiozan and Kaisei paired up, too. Takayasu will be going for KK and promotion against always dangerous Toyonoshima who's trying to avoid falling to MK.

In lower makuuchi as already alluded above, it appears that nobody wants to be in the top division next basho. Today's bouts were always going to be difficult with all demotion candidates set against mid-maegashira opposition, but I didn't expect them to suffer a complete 0-5 whitewash. As such suddenly a whole lot of rikishi have their backs to the wall with two days to go, but it's looking like an oddly flexible wall.

It's not helping that the juryo contenders (a word I'm using very loosely here) continue to produce pretty mediocre results, too. Takanoiwa lost yet again, which at least kept Homasho in the race, while Kyokushuho was removed altogether via MK. Kagamio lost to Yoshiazuma despite a four-alarm henka and has now fallen to a record that shouldn't be promotable anymore even with extreme goodwill. (Then again, in this basho who knows...) Asasekiryu is also out of the goodwill zone after losing the contenders' matchup against Osunaarashi. Oiwato was yet another losing rikishi on the day, but can still harbor some small hopes.

The lone bright spots of the day were the heavy duo of Chiyootori and Tenkaiho, and yusho-clinching Endo who, at the rate things are developing, might even get promoted with a 13-2. (And given how solid his sumo looks, I doubt the banzuke makers would pull a Chiyotairyu on him.)

(x) ky. Baruto M6

...

M10 Chiyonokuni 2-4-7 (x)

(x) 0-13 Daido M11 Tochinoshin 3-3-7 (x)

M12

(1) 5-8 Tamawashi M13 Jokoryu 4-9 (2)

M14 Tamaasuka 5-8 (2)

(2) 5-8 Wakanosato M15 Sokokurai 5-8 (2)

M16

(1) 7-6 Takanoiwa J1 Chiyootori 6-4-3 (2)

(?) 6-7 Oiwato J2 Kyokushuho 5-8 (x)

J3 Tochinowaka 9-4 (o)

(x) 6-7 Kagamio J4

J5 Tenkaiho 8-5 (2)

J6 Homasho 8-5 (?)

J7

(x) 8-5 Asasekiryu J8

J9 Osunaarashi 9-4 (?)

...

J13 Endo 12-1 (2)

It's not getting much easier for the demotion candidates; only Wakanosato has drawn another low-ranked opponent in Masunoyama, the other quartet will be facing opposition ranked M10 and up, with poor Tamawashi dragged up the highest again (today M5w Toyonoshima, tomorrow M4w Fujiazuma).

And in juryo we'll finally see the anticipated Osunaarashi-Endo rematch. Also with interesting promotion implications is Chiyootori-Homasho, the loser of which will definitely (Otori) or very likely (Homasho) be out of the race.

The juryo/makushita situation saw a lot of decisive changes today. Chiyoarashi and Kotomisen lost against makushita visitors Wakamisho and Chiyoo and will have to accompany Tochihiryu back to the lower division. Oniarashi and Takanoyama have now given themselves a fighting chance after winning their bouts today, but Nionoumi continues to be in a world of trouble. Wakakoyu also lost and finds himself on a 3-day slide. Meanwhile, the outside contenders Sakigake and Kairyu both lost, restricting the promotion queue to the usual top 5 ranks.

With three slots now definitely available, Wakamisho has clinched the promotion.

J4 Nionoumi 1-12 (2)

...

(1) 5-8 Oniarashi J10

J11 Takanoyama 5-8 (1)

(x) 3-10 Tochihiryu J12 Wakakoyu 6-7 (1)

(x) 4-9 Chiyoarashi J13

J14 Kotomisen 5-8 (x)

3-3 Chiyomaru Ms1

Ms2 Akiseyama 4-2

4-3 Chiyoo Ms3 Kitaharima 4-2

6-1 Wakamisho Ms4

Ms5

(x) 5-2 Sakigake Ms6

...

(x) 6-1 Kairyu Ms15

Another pair of crossover bouts will be staged tomorrow, in which Takanoyama and Wakakoyu can reach safe ground at the expense of Akiseyama and Kitaharima. Wins by the former Kitanoumi-beya stablemates should see them get promoted into the further two open slots - there's still Chiyomaru who can move ahead of them, but his 3-3 bout on Day 15 should be against somebody who'll be at the edge of demotion in that scenario, so the net effect on Akiseyama and Kitaharima would be zero.

Edit: On second thought Akiseyama might already be safe. He'll be third in line even with a loss tomorrow, and can drop to 4th only if another slot opens up (again assuming a Chiyomaru vs juryo matchup).

Edited by Asashosakari
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Day 14:

The sanyaku spots should be settled now - the only question is who's going to be sekiwake and who komusubi. Goeido improved to 7-7 against Aoiyama somewhat expectedly, while his stablemate Myogiryu wasn't able to clinch the kachikoshi against Ikioi. Meanwhile Takayasu beat Toyonoshima to do clinch KK and Tochiozan was successful against Kaisei, and Chiyotairyu's loss against Takarafuji put the last remaining contender out of reach.

7-7 Myogiryu S Goeido 7-7
(x) 6-8 Shohozan K Tokitenku 4-10 (x)

M1 Takayasu 8-6
9-5 Tochiozan M2
7-7 Chiyotairyu M3
M4
8-6 Ikioi M5
M6 Okinoumi 9-5
9-5 Takarafuji M7
M8
10-4 Aoiyama M9
M10
M11
10-4 Kaisei M12


Putting Takayasu against Chiyotairyu for senshuraku was an inspired idea, but it would have worked out better if their Day 14 results had been reversed. Oh well, it does still have implications for Tairyu's KK and Takayasu's chances of a jump straight to sekiwake. Tochiozan will start off the proceedings, however, facing Takarafuji. After the two pretenders have settled the order of their claims for a sekiwake promotion, the two incumbents will do their thing to try to keep their spots; first it's Goeido versus Toyonoshima, followed by Myogiryu against Okinoumi.


The lower maegashira ranks are as messy as ever. Tamaasuka and Sokokurai had quick losses against Aran and Toyohibiki and would normally be on the way down now, but in this weird basho I can even see them stay with a 6-9. (If you believe that's nuts, Kakizoe says hi.) Jokoryu and Wakanosato were victorious, leaving their opponents Kitataiki and Masunoyama at 7-7, and the latter uncomfortably wheezing on the dohyo yet again. In any case, these two can definitely secure their spots now with another win on senshuraku and, being placed one win better than Tamaasuka and Sokokurai, might even be safe already. Tamawashi lost a questionable decision to Fujiazuma and is in much the same situation as Jokoryu and Wakanosato.

In juryo the list of candidates got even shorter with Chiyootori and Oiwato falling to makekoshi. Takanoiwa continues to make it difficult for himself, this time losing to Asahisho. Tenkaiho was victorious over Tochinowaka and while he technically still needs a win to be safe, I would say even a 9-6 record would definitely see him promoted. I'm not so sure about Homasho, but after beating Chiyootori today he does still have the opportunity to finish 10-5 which should see him move back up. Last not least Endo beat Osunaarashi again for a very likely end of the Egyptian's makuuchi hopes for this basho, while keeping his own name in the discussion.

(x) ky. Baruto M6
...
M10 Chiyonokuni 2-4-8 (x)
(x) 0-14 Daido M11 Tochinoshin 3-3-8 (x)
M12
(1) 5-9 Tamawashi M13 Jokoryu 5-9 (1)
M14 Tamaasuka 5-9 (?)
(1) 6-8 Wakanosato M15 Sokokurai 5-9 (?)
M16

(1) 7-7 Takanoiwa J1 Chiyootori 6-5-3 (x)
(x) 6-8 Oiwato J2
J3 Tochinowaka 9-5 (o)
J4
J5 Tenkaiho 9-5 (1)
J6 Homasho 9-5 (?)
J7
J8
J9 Osunaarashi 9-5 (x)
...
J13 Endo 13-1 (1)


Tomorrow Wakanosato gets arguably the toughest matchup against 7-7 Yoshikaze. Jokoryu also faces a rikishi on the bubble, but it's Takanoiwa from juryo. Tenkaiho gets the call up to the top division schedule as well, meeting Tamawashi. Sokokurai and Tamaasuka face opponents who have little to play for in already-KK Aran and already-MK Sadanofuji. In juryo Endo and Homasho's match might be a promotion playoff of sorts, depending on how the other results fall.


Wakakoyu and Takanoyama helped themselves greatly today, beating the makushita pair of Kitaharima and Akiseyama today to secure their continued stay in juryo. Oniarashi wasn't so lucky, losing to Sotairyu, and remains on the bubble. Nionoumi lost yet again and is now demotable by the numbers, though his high rank needs to be kept in mind.

J4 Nionoumi 1-13 (x)
...
(1) 5-9 Oniarashi J10
J11 Takanoyama 6-8 (o)
(x) 3-11 Tochihiryu J12 Wakakoyu 7-7 (o)
(x) 4-10 Chiyoarashi J13
J14 Kotomisen 5-9 (x)

3-3 Chiyomaru Ms1
Ms2 Akiseyama 4-3
4-3 Chiyoo Ms3 Kitaharima 4-3
6-1 Wakamisho Ms4
Ms5


It's the expected matchup for Chiyomaru tomorrow as he gets the opportunity to pull down Oniarashi. Things should be settled now for Wakamisho, Akiseyama and Chiyoo, in exchange for Tochihiryu/Chiyoarashi/Kotomisen. Chiyomaru will of course also get promoted if he wins; the main question might be if Kitaharima is in a good enough position to pull down a 5-9 Oniarashi or a 2-13 Nionoumi (who faces Kotomisen tomorrow). I think he is and only Chiyomaru/Oniarashi remains as a real issue for the final day. Takanoyama meets makushitan Kotokuni with KK on the line for the latter; for Takanoyama this is mostly a matter of how much room to spare he'll have on the banzuke next basho. Lastly, Sagatsukasa gets the call for an extra 8th bout against Tochihiryu.

Edited by Asashosakari
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At least my Wakamisho came through :-D , but two other favourite must leave Juryo again ... Chiyoarashi and Kotomisen :'-(

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maybe both sekiwake will finish 7-8 and keep their ranks? especially if takayasu loses on senshuraku. has it ever happened?

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soo it looks like strange things may happen. I.e. Osunaarashi promotion even with 10 wins, or some promoter like 10 Kaiho promoted to m13 or somthing similar. or guys like 6-9 dropping 1 full rank en masse or the combinations.

Endo makuuchi rikishi, assured - Hi Endo, I hope for a MK for wake up

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I like everything about Endo except his 37 minute tachi-ai line-up routine. But at least he gives me time to get up, stretch, do some cardio, make dinner, read a book, learn a foreign language and then run to the liquor store to get more sake when his match starts. Almost makes me pine for the days of watching Akiseyama slowly try and get into his crouch. That only took 22 minutes.

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Well Takanoiwa, completely unnecassary this 5 consecutive losses, so no promotion to Makuuchi. But congratulations to Wakamisho once again :-)

9330832069_19b8239565_b.jpg

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Sooo What now with Juryo-Makuuchi changeovers and that part of the banzuke. Tricky tricky.

I guess 4 fixed demotions, and 4 promotions are Tochinowaka, Tenkaiho, Endo and Homasho. That means that all of Sokokurai, Tamawashi, Jokoryu, Tamaasuka stay. A pretty crowded lower makuuchi :) Alternatively they promote Asahisho, then Osunaarashi, and so on Very lucky.

Tochinowaka M12 Tenkaiho

Endo M13 Homasho

Jokoryu M14 Masunoyama

Tamawashi M15 Wakanosato

Tamaasuka M16 Sokokurai

Something like this? very weird to figure out. 9 rank promotion for Homasho with +3 wins and 1/2 rank demotion for -3 wins for Jokoryu. Maybe Masunoyama and Wakanosato don't lose even 1/2 rank after all.

Also big overpromotions for m16 pair and lucky for Takekaze

Edited by Hakuyobaku

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Day 15:

The Sakaigawa duo ensured an easy time for the banzuke makers at least in the early going of Wednesday's session, securing their KKs at the expense of Toyonoshima and Okinoumi. That meant the results of Tochiozan's and Takayasu's earlier matches only determined who's going to be the East komusubi in Aki, and after wins for both it'll be Tochiozan.

8-7 Myogiryu S Goeido 8-7

(x) 7-8 Shohozan K Tokitenku 4-11 (x)

M1 Takayasu 9-6

10-5 Tochiozan M2

Not that we had any right to expect differently the way the basho was going, but as Hakuyobaku already outlined above the situation in lower makuuchi is a complete mess. It's actually even slightly less messy than it could have been, as senshuraku victories sent Jokoryu and Wakanosato to definite safety, with Tamaasuka and Sokokurai also winning to perhaps save themselves as well. Only Tamawashi wasn't able to join the party.

In juryo Takanoiwa completed his "turnaround", falling from 7-3 to 7-8 and missing out on what would likely have been an extremely generous promotion for an 8-7. Tochinowaka improved to 10-5 and will have first dibs on wherever free spots will materialize in makuuchi. Tenkaiho also reached double digits to become the second proper promotion candidate, while Homasho remained stuck at 9 wins, losing to Endo. The collegiate newcomer's 14-1 record is mathematically promotable but in most tournaments there just aren't enough free spots for it (and in any case a low-rank yusho tends to be discounted in value a bit). This time he's almost certainly going to get promoted, and today's newspapers are in fact treating it as pretty much a done deal already.

The below table has had Masunoyama added (as he's relevant to the logjam after falling to MK today even though safe) as well as the next few theoretical promotion contenders in juryo.

(x) ky. Baruto M6

...

M10 Chiyonokuni 2-4-9 (x)

(x) 1-14 Daido M11 Tochinoshin 3-3-9 (x)

M12

(?) 5-10 Tamawashi M13 Jokoryu 6-9 (o)

(o) 7-8 Masunoyama M14 Tamaasuka 6-9 (?)

(o) 7-8 Wakanosato M15 Sokokurai 6-9 (?)

M16

(x) 7-8 Takanoiwa J1

J2

J3 Tochinowaka 10-5 (o)

J4

J5 Tenkaiho 10-5 (o)

J6 Homasho 9-6 (?)

(??) 9-6 Asahisho J7

(??) 9-6 Asasekiryu J8

(??) 9-6 Seiro J9 Osunaarashi 10-5 (??)

J10 Tokushinho 10-5 (??)

...

J13 Endo 14-1 (o)

My personal preference would be along what Hakuyobaku suggested (though with M14 and M15 both flipped East/West) - Daido and the three kyujo rikishi down, with Tochinowaka/Tenkaiho/Endo as the obvious promotions plus Homasho as the lucky 4th.

Alternative possibilities:

- They decide to go really easy on the kyujo trio; I can sort of see Baruto staying with a bit of a high-rank bonus and a "we don't want to send the ex-ozeki to juryo" bonus, but I'm really struggling to justify keeping Chiyonokuni and Tochinoshin over e.g. Tamawashi and Sokokurai. I could see Baruto staying and Sokokurai dropping, mostly depending on what the collective feeling about Sokokurai is these days. (Bad conscience or anger?) Actually, I could even see Baruto staying and Sokokurai not dropping, cutting the promotion queue to 3 spots which would avoid all massive overpromotions.

- They go whole hog and demote everybody who's mathematically on the outs. That would mean the four "normal" demotions plus Tamawashi, Tamaasuka and Sokokurai for 7 free spots, which would presumably add Asahisho, Osunaarashi and Asasekiryu to the promotion queue. My impression remains that they don't like to give such super-lucky promotions to a first-timer, but they could decide that all this is such a mess that they might as well grab some headlines and promote Osunaarashi as well.

- The most likely "intermediate" solution I could see would spare Baruto (for the aforementioned reasons) and Tamaasuka (as the best-placed demotable rikishi), for 5 spots. That would add Asahisho as a 5th promotee, which avoids the lucky newcomer issue by cutting the line right in front of Osunaarashi. And Tamaasuka going M14w 6-9 -> M16e or M16w would be somewhat lucky, but not too unusual.

For your GTB entry, I suggest drawing up several scenarios and rolling dice to pick one. Short of news leaking early, we'll probably all be surprised on September 2 no matter what they decide to go with.

Lower juryo by contrast is much less suspenseful - Nionoumi lost his 14th and should be impossible to keep now, and Oniarashi dropped the exchange bout with Chiyomaru. That installs Chiyomaru at the top of the queue, so it's now (best to worst) Chiyomaru/Wakamisho/Akiseyama/Chiyoo/Kitaharima for the promotees and (worst to best) Tochihiryu/Chiyoarashi/Kotomisen/Nionoumi/Oniarashi for the demotables. Oniarashi already got lucky once (exactly a year ago), so I suppose there's a non-negligible chance that he'll be spared again at the expense of Kitaharima. We'll see if shinpan-fuku-bucho trumps rijicho or not, I guess.

J4 Nionoumi 1-14 (x)

...

(x) 5-10 Oniarashi J10

J11

(x) 3-12 Tochihiryu J12

(x)4-10-1 Chiyoarashi J13

J14 Kotomisen 6-9 (x)

4-3 Chiyomaru Ms1

Ms2 Akiseyama 4-3

4-3 Chiyoo Ms3 Kitaharima 4-3

6-1 Wakamisho Ms4

Ms5

Edited by Asashosakari
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Makuuchi ensured Endo at the Oitekaze-beya Senshuraku party.

H20130722102.jpg

All who managed to get to makuuchi in 4 basho (in the 6 basho system since 1958) reached ozeki: Asashio, Musoyama, Miyabiyama (all from makushita tsukedashi).

Endo would be the fastest with 3 basho, but he started as ms 10 tsukedashi.

Edited by Akinomaki

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My personal preference would be along what Hakuyobaku suggested (though with M14 and M15 both flipped East/West)

Sure this is more "fair", i.e. it's "less total underdemotion" but I thought Make-Koshi rikishi must get demoted at least 1/2 rank unless something special happens like scandal a couple years ago. Maybe this is searchable in a better way than manually inputing all the ranks + 7 wins in the database..

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My personal preference would be along what Hakuyobaku suggested (though with M14 and M15 both flipped East/West)

Sure this is more "fair", i.e. it's "less total underdemotion" but I thought Make-Koshi rikishi must get demoted at least 1/2 rank unless something special happens like scandal a couple years ago.
Occasionally they do keep 7-8 rikishi at the same rank when there are only makekoshi rikishi available to fill a particular area. Since he has just been mentioned in another thread - Hakurozan once got lucky like that (in fact even a 2-spot promotion since sanyaku got smaller).

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I think next Komusubi will be Takayasu and Tochiozan. Baruto, Tochinoshin will be Juryo. Takekaze and Chiyonokuni almost. I think "the uncle" Wakanosato will survive like M16...

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My personal preference would be along what Hakuyobaku suggested (though with M14 and M15 both flipped East/West)

Sure this is more "fair", i.e. it's "less total underdemotion" but I thought Make-Koshi rikishi must get demoted at least 1/2 rank unless something special happens like scandal a couple years ago. Maybe this is searchable in a better way than manually inputing all the ranks + 7 wins in the database..

May I suggest studying the Banzuke situation after Aki 2006, which was a mess, too? (On the banzuke...)

M9e (Takamisakari), M9w (Asasekiryu), M12w (Tosanoumi) and M13w (Tochinohana) kept their ranks with their 7-8 make koshi.

Ok, as there were 2 additional Komusubi slots and therefore 2 subducted Maegashira ranks, they relatively lost 1 rank.

Similar situation there with Juryo promotions:

J4w (Kitazakura) has been skyrocketed 8 full ranks to M11w with his 10-5

J5e (Otsukasa), also with 10-5 ... had to wait for the next available slot and lost 3 full ranks compared to Kitazakura (Scratching chin...)

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Btw. the situation after Nagoya 2010 is interesting, too.

M14e (Tamawashi) moved to west with his 7-8, making room for a J6e with 9-6!

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coulf they promote 5 guys, including Osuna, but not Asahisho, Asasekiryu & Seiro ?

can a J9w 10-5 topple a 9-6 Je ??

Looking at the NSK stream every day, they seems to like habibi...

could be beneficial for the NSK to promote the African from a monetary standpoint.

the two most urgent things the NSK needs is a Jpn Yokozuna & cash....

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