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Asashosakari

Promotion/Demotion discussion Nagoya 2013

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could be beneficial for the NSK to promote the African from a monetary standpoint.

the two most urgent things the NSK needs is a Jpn Yokozuna & cash....

A popular guy looking for a promotion will outdraw an over-promoted star who goes in the tank.
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coulf they promote 5 guys, including Osuna, but not Asahisho, Asasekiryu & Seiro ?

can a J9w 10-5 topple a 9-6 Je ??

Looking at the NSK stream every day, they seems to like habibi...

could be beneficial for the NSK to promote the African from a monetary standpoint.

the two most urgent things the NSK needs is a Jpn Yokozuna & cash....

I'm a Osuna fan and think that anoter basho in upper Juryo would do him good :)

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could be beneficial for the NSK to promote the African from a monetary standpoint.

the two most urgent things the NSK needs is a Jpn Yokozuna & cash....

where do you get the idea they need cash?

Also, the Egyptian is still far from the big deal his groupies make him out to be in as far as attracting people to the stadium goes. I presume you think that is where the cash injection would come from.

The buzz that was there when Baruto was coming up, Kotooshu too is just not there. When Oosunaarashi does fight he has his fans of course but is certainly not a major cash cow at the moment. I doubt he ever will be.

True, he is on TV stations but in little more form than the regular Japanese TV that temporarily fawns over some gaijin involved in a traditional aspect of Japanese culture such as first gaijin geisha, first gaijin female ryokan owner, etc etc.

Agree wholeheartedly on the desire for a local born yokozuna.

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Oosunaarashi as usual was featured on Takeshi's “newscaster” on TBS: Ramadan basho.

Sleeping during the day with air con set to 18°C, getting sprinkled from a hose by the oyakata, who tried himself how long he can last without drinking: 5 hours was his limit. The others shown eating, the supporters sending a whole lot of vegetables and good stuff, his Egyptian style food preparation for the evening meal.

The oyakata after the kachi-koshi as usual didn't compliment him for it, but criticized his backward going sumo: Oosunaarashi-style sumo has to be going forward !

He himself was discerning about his sumo: 70% power and 30% sumo, while the others have it the other way round – he will work on improving that balance.

And his rivalry with Endo of course – next basho wanting to try more: but will they meet at all in Aki if the banzuke separates them e. g. as m12 and j3 ? The torikumi-makers may be interested in having that one and it is not that rare.

Edited by Akinomaki
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The oyakata after the kachi-koshi as usual didn't compliment him for it, but criticized his backward going sumo: Oosunaarashi-style sumo has to be going forward !

said as much here earlier in the week!

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/sports/2013/07/22/sumo/hakuho-moves-past-asashoryu-to-third-on-the-all-time-greatest-list/#.UfPopOCUDZs

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The torikumi-makers may be interested in having that one and it is not that rare.

That list is mostly invalid, considering most examples come from when the maegashira ranks ended at M13 or M14. It's happened 5 times in the last six and a half years, certainly right in the ballpark for "rare".

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Oosunaarashi as usual was featured on Takeshi's “newscaster” on TBS: Ramadan basho.

Sleeping during the day with air con set to 18°C, getting sprinkled from a hose by the oyakata, who tried himself how long he can last without drinking: 5 hours was his limit. The others shown eating, the supporters sending a whole lot of vegetables and good stuff, his Egyptian style food preparation for the evening meal.

The oyakata after the kachi-koshi as usual didn't compliment him for it, but criticized his backward going sumo: Oosunaarashi-style sumo has to be going forward !

He himself was discerning about his sumo: 70% power and 30% sumo, while the others have it the other way round – he will work on improving that balance.

And his rivalry with Endo of course – next basho wanting to try more: but will they meet at all in Aki if the banzuke separates them e. g. as m12 and j3 ? The torikumi-makers may be interested in having that one and it is not that rare.

Reading the oyakata's comments I decided to go back and watch Osuna's last thirty bouts and it is obvious that he is just doing his job as a shisho being strict on his deshi, trying to make sure he doesn't get into bad habits. I saw very little backward sumo from him...he did a bit more this basho after getting injured against Homasho (used a pull twice to get himself into a better (winning) position) and once to actually win the bout). It is just ludicrous to suggest that Osuna depends on pulling or backward sumo as any glance through his past bouts will show you. And there is absolutely nothing wrong with the occasional hiki-waza if it wins you the fight. It only becomes a problem if they depend on it all the time...and he absolutely does not. You may not have noticed but Hakuho wins going backwards pretty regularly recently and is not above the odd pull-down win himself. Osuna always comes out and tries to go forward. As I've said before, let's not forget Asashoryu and Hakuho both went 9-6 as shin-Juryo (and...snakes alive...they were even allowed to eat and drink in the 35+ temperatures) so I think it might be time to cut the young lad a break, appreciate his strong, forward sumo for exactly what it is, and see how he does when he inevitably reaches the top. I, for one, have no doubts whatsoever that he is going straight into sanyaku and hopefully even further. The only thing that will stop him is injury.

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Back on topic...the GTB game should be pretty funny this time. I don't remember a banzuke that could so easily be different to what people may expect. I'm betting Baruto goes down and Sokokurai/Tamawashi etc. survive...but I could be utterly wrong.

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The torikumi-makers may be interested in having that one and it is not that rare.

That list is mostly invalid, considering most examples come from when the maegashira ranks ended at M13 or M14. It's happened 5 times in the last six and a half years, certainly right in the ballpark for "rare".

I really wanted a list including +/- 1 for both ranks and makuuchi relative to the last rank, but I don't know how to do that query. That would give maybe 5 times as much occasions. Once a year is rare, but when they report it in the news "first time since ..." and it's less than 10 years, for me that is "not that rare".

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Back on topic...the GTB game should be pretty funny this time. I don't remember a banzuke that could so easily be different to what people may expect. I'm betting Baruto goes down and Sokokurai/Tamawashi etc. survive...but I could be utterly wrong.

The press doesn't have a clue this time either - I found two articles written between Sunday and Wednesday and one of them said it was very likely that 5 rikishi would be going down (= must include Sokokurai) and another said that it was very likely that Sokokurai had ensured his makuuchi survival with his senshuraku win.

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I really wanted a list including +/- 1 for both ranks and makuuchi relative to the last rank, but I don't know how to do that query. That would give maybe 5 times as much occasions. Once a year is rare, but when they report it in the news "first time since ..." and it's less than 10 years, for me that is "not that rare".

The DB doesn't support queries relative to "bottom of makuuchi", unfortunately. In any case, it's happened 5 times out of the last 100+ times it was possible (remember, 4 possible M12 vs J3 matchups per basho) - that doesn't qualify as rare for you? (In jonokuchi...)

And of course expanding the query +/-1 ranks in each division would give more results, but it also expands the list of possibilities 9-fold (6x6 possible matchups per basho instead of 2x2), so I'm not sure what that is supposed to show. I bet the "hit" ratio wouldn't be materially different from the ~5% above. M13 and (especially) M12 in an M16-length banzuke simply don't get many juryo opponents.

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Juryo opponents faced by maegashira by relative position since 2004 (57 basho), number in brackets = matches in the final 5 days = likely scheduled because the maegashira is headed for makekoshi:

bottom maegashira rank: 123 (51)

2nd from bottom: 101 (42)

3rd from bottom: 102 (47)

4th from bottom: 84 (41)

5th from bottom: 52 (35)

6th from bottom: 46 (28)

7th from bottom: 43 (35)

8th from bottom: 32 (23)

9th from bottom: 12 (12)

10th from bottom: 14 (14)

So, once you move beyond the bottom 4 to 6 spots, maegashira mostly receive juryo opponents for exchange purposes at the end of the basho. Endo should be ranked 8th or better...assuming he'll get slotted in 8th (= M13e), he's on track for about half a juryo opponent next basho, and he'll likely only get that matchup if he's in demotion danger. You be the judge how probable that is.

In case anybody finds my "last 5 days" choice questionable - maegashira-juryo matchups by day since 2004:

Day 1: 22

Day 2: 23

Day 3: 27

Day 4: 25

Day 5: 28

Day 6: 30

Day 7: 35

Day 8: 25

Day 9: 31

Day 10: 35

Day 11: 49

Day 12: 60

Day 13: 57

Day 14: 74

Day 15: 95

Edited by Asashosakari
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I really wanted a list including +/- 1 for both ranks and makuuchi relative to the last rank, but I don't know how to do that query. That would give maybe 5 times as much occasions. Once a year is rare, but when they report it in the news "first time since ..." and it's less than 10 years, for me that is "not that rare".

The DB doesn't support queries relative to "bottom of makuuchi", unfortunately. In any case, it's happened 5 times out of the last 100+ times it was possible (remember, 4 possible M12 vs J3 matchups per basho) - that doesn't qualify as rare for you? (In jonokuchi...)

I said rare but not THAT rare. I don't think the news would call it a rare event if it came to that.

And it seems the makuuchi guy rather has to have a bad result and the juryo guy a good one. Endo has to hit the wall.

Edit: a bit late with the last line

Edited by Akinomaki

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So, once you move beyond the bottom 4 to 6 spots, maegashira mostly receive juryo opponents for exchange purposes at the end of the basho. Endo should be ranked 8th or better...assuming he'll get slotted in 8th (= M13e), he's on track for about half a juryo opponent next basho, and he'll likely only get that matchup if he's in demotion danger. You be the judge how probable that is.

Jokoryu?

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Endo could get one hell of a boost. This makes me wonder what the biggest ever promotions have been (in the modern era). Obviously there are going to be some enormous leaps with 7-0s in the lower divisions...but I wonder what the biggest (luckiest) ever jump up from Juryo was...and perhaps upper Makushita.

He asked hopefully...as I don't even know where to begin with those Sumo Reference queries!!

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Endo could get one hell of a boost. This makes me wonder what the biggest ever promotions have been (in the modern era). Obviously there are going to be some enormous leaps with 7-0s in the lower divisions...but I wonder what the biggest (luckiest) ever jump up from Juryo was...and perhaps upper Makushita.

He asked hopefully...as I don't even know where to begin with those Sumo Reference queries!!

Way too many parameters to assign. ;-) But on my personal "lucky" scale and excluding expansion/suspension tournaments, I'd have to say Kakuryu after Aki 2006 comes in very high for promotions from juryo to makuuchi.

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I took the liberty to take some queries...

No-one from either J14 or J13 (like Endo is about to) has jumped straight into makuuchi.

Then there's these couple of cases from J12, and one of them has been covered by fellow tuga Chishafuwaku right above me. Kyokunankai was massively lucky after such an absurd amount of overall kyujos and 7-8s above him. Even Goeido's kyujo at M4 was deemed unworthy of staying above a J12 10-5 ! Well, either way he proceeded to mop the dohyo with the juryo folks for a couple of weeks, thank you very much,

Edited by Koorifuu

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Even Goeido's kyujo at M4 was deemed unworthy of staying above a J12 10-5 !

That wasn't exactly kyujo.

He had been a very naughty boy!

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I agreed with Koorifuu that Kyokunankai was lucky in such promotion (10-5, J12w => M16e), but in same basho Toyozakura (J11e) with 8-7 was promoted to M17e.

I think this guy with this promotion had even more luck.

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I agreed with Koorifuu that Kyokunankai was lucky in such promotion (10-5, J12w => M16e), but in same basho Toyozakura (J11e) with 8-7 was promoted to M17e.

I think this guy with this promotion had even more luck.

Didn't you notice how many sekitori had scores of 0-0-15 at the 2010 Nagoya basho?

Have a look http://sumodb.sumogames.de/Banzuke.aspx?b=201007&heya=-1&shusshin=-1

I've always thought that the gambling scandal brought Tosanoumi's career to a premature end. There he was, ambling along in mid juryo when all of a sudden he was thrust back up to Makuuchi. A 2-13 beating that seemed to knock the stuffing out of him was followed by a 4-11 in Juryo, then intai.

I always liked Tosanoumi, one of those "up front" guys who never used a henka (at least I don't remember him ever doing so).

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I always liked Tosanoumi, one of those "up front" guys who never used a henka (at least I don't remember him ever doing so).

In his case, it was more a matter of being unable to henka, due to his speed (or lack thereof)

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