Guessing Baruto's future

[Washuyama 641]

With this kyujo, I'm hoping Baruto will take some time to actually let his knee heal a little. I don't see him getting surgery as that would cause a year long absence and too far a banzuke drop at his age. Without the surgery, the knee will never be 100%, but a few months rest may get it back to where it was before his drop from Ozeki.

So... Here is my guess:

5/2013 - S - 3-5-7

7/2013 - M4/5 (ish) - kyujo

9/2013 - J1/J2 (ish) - kyujo

11/2013 - J14

The last 3 basho he's had in Juryo have all been yusho (15-0, 14-1, 13-2) so I have no problem saying he would get his 4th. That would hopefully put him at low maegashira where he would put together a strong double-digit, yusho contending basho pushing him back to the joi where he belongs.

IMHO, Baruto at 75% is still the 3rd or 4th best rikishi in sumo. I would say 2nd after Hakuho, but will concede that to the other Yokozuna and possibly Kakuryu after that.

[ronnie 221]

Might be a blessing if he dropped to Makushita for November. He would only have to come out to play half the time there, then a 6-1 or 7-0 would take him up to the mid reaches of Juryo. That would almost be the equivalent of another 2 months off.

It all really depends though on whether or not if he has the desire to continue.

[Asojima 2,874]

He can kyujo 2 or 3 basho and still draw a salary. No compelling need to intai now. If he recovers, he should scream back into sanyaku within 3 bashos. If not, he can intai before dropping to Makushita. He has at least 6 months before he must do a physical and mental reality check. There is no longer a compelling need for him to make an immediate return and risk further damage.

Edited May 19, 2013 by Asojima

[Tsubame 368]

I don't see more then one basho kyujo...

[Raishu 208]

I don't see more then one basho kyujo...

I second that. If he really had in mind to get his knee fixed, he probably would have done that in the past already.

Baruto and his legs. What a painful story.

Just browsed through the database and so many bashos he had to withdraw due to injuries ( 2006.09 , 2007.01 , 2007.07 , 2012.09 , 2012.11).

That knee never healed properly and I don't think it will anyway.

My guess is 2-3 more years in the paid ranks and thats it. I hope he will prove me wrong.

Edited May 19, 2013 by Raishu

[Asashosakari 19,500]

Would be a bit odd if Baruto ended up retiring earlier than Kotooshu, given the latter has also had his share of injuries and has been deemed to be on the way out for at least three years now...

[Swami 245]

He certainly has had a wretched time of it with injuries. I'd hate to see him struggling in the lower ranks, a shadow of his former self.

Swami

[shumitto 418]

I see him yo-yoing in mid makuuchi before calling it a day very soon.

[Swami 245]

I see him yo-yoing in mid makuuchi before calling it a day very soon.

True, I don't see him risking a fall to juryo.

Swami

[Masumasumasu 902]

Doesn't he plan to run a place called 'Barutoland' in Estonia when he retires?

[Andreas21 184]

Although I really would love to be proved wrong, my prediction is he will try 3 to 4 more basho, will not finish a decent basho and retire. He relies so much on his strength that he can't work around injuries like many others.

I don't know exactly what his recent condition is but if it as serious as some suggested I strongly doubt that he will come back after a surgery.

Would be a bit odd if Baruto ended up retiring earlier than Kotooshu, given the latter has also had his share of injuries and has been deemed to be on the way out for at least three years now...

Would be indeed but very possible. It seems to me that Oshu learned to handle his injuries better. 4 Kyujo in 2 years seems a lot but the injuries have not been severe - partly precautionary withdraws apparently. He came back strong a couple of times after Kyujo. Oshu is also much lighter than Baruto and doesn't do the heavy things like lifting the other one up and such.

[ArchangelEST 13]

What little Baruto has said in the local Estonian newspapers makes me believe that he will not take an extended leave.

A quick summary:

A day after the surgery Baruto commented that his knee had swollen to twice its normal size and turned blue. During the bout he simply positioned himself wrong and allowed the weight to fall to his bad knee at a bad angle. He tried to spare the knee, but sometimes you just get unlucky with that. He didn't say it was the knee failing per say. (My guess is that anybody's knee would have likely given out in this circumstance, this time it was his and unfortunately his bad knee at that and so it resulted in an injury. A healthy knee might have been able to shake it off).

He feared it's worse than prior injuries and that he might have to go into surgery. He was not looking forward to that, saying that it's the last thing he wants. After being asked if he is thinking about retiring and taking up farming in Estonia, he simply replied that it's an option, but nothing is decided yet. He is taking it one day at a time and making plans as he goes, first up is the Doctors visit on Monday. In any case his first priority is recovery. He is sad about missing his planned vacation to the homeland though. Rules (of the stable I imagine?) say that he cannot go on vacation if he quits in the middle of the tourney.

The latest news after seeing the doctor on Monday has Baruto saying that the injury is moderately severe yet no surgery is needed. He said that while after the bout his knee had swollen to twice its size, it has now calmed down and seems to be healing. Recovery doesn't seem to be particularly fast, but it is getting better.

-------

So I guess we'll have to see if it can heal fast enough for Baruto to effectively take part in the next Basho. Even if he has no time to train properly before the basho, middle maegashira shouldn't be too tough as long as the knee holds up. Personally I'm hoping he will cancel the next basho as-well if there is any signs that the knee isn't ready. Dropping to high Juryo isn't that bad if the free time will go towards healing/training, it's bad if he injures it further and then drops to Juryo while being hurt and out of shape. With a healed knee he could easily be in high maegashira/sanyaku in a few basho. The other scenario is most likely Intai.

While dropping as low as Makushita might be a good plan in terms of recovery when doing the surgery, I simply think that Baruto is a bit old and "seasoned" to have the energy to start working up again from the lower ranks, especially after an extended leave which most likely will leave him a bit out of shape and possibly de-motivated. But never know of-course. Baruto isn't *that* old, that he couldn't pull it off. Many rikishi have done very well in early-mid thirties. So if he heals the leg he might find the energy to keep going.

If anyone has good searching skills maybe they can find what is the lowest position any Ozeki has fallen and still made a come-back?

[Asashosakari 19,500]

So I guess we'll have to see if it can heal fast enough for Baruto to effectively take part in the next Basho. Even if he has no time to train properly before the basho, middle maegashira shouldn't be too tough as long as the knee holds up.

Demotions from sekiwake tend to be pretty lenient, so he might not fall too far. In fact, with the huge gaping void we'll probably have in the high maegashira ranks, it's possible Baruto will even stay in the meatgrinder. Not sure if that's good or bad...on the upside, from M3-M4 he might even be able to skip July and still be in makuuchi for September.

[rzombie1988 159]

I'd get the surgery if I were him. His knee needs fixed and the current plan isn't working. He's only going to hurt himself more and drop further down at the moment. Atleast with the surgery, he has a chance, and if he drops down, it was inevitable anyway.