Promotion/Demotion discussion Natsu 2013

[Benevolance 2,478]

Considering that he made ozeki without getting the required 33 wins, I'm pretty sure he can make yokozuna with something less than the required best effort.

[Asashosakari 18,784]

Tochiozan may or may not have opened up yet another slot in lower sanyaku with today's loss. Meanwhile among the contenders Aoiyama has also fallen to makekoshi, and Yoshikaze and Fujiazuma really should be out of the running with at most an 8-7 finish possible for them. Doitsuyama made the sensible point in today's results update that even somebody from way down the ranks might end up grabbing a slot after all, so here's three new names added to be on the safe side:

O2 Kotooshu 7-6

6-7 Goeido S Baruto 3-5-5 (x)

(?) 5-8 Tochiozan K Okinoumi 3-10 (x)

(o) 9-4 Myogiryu M1

M2

M3

(x) 5-8 Aoiyama M4 Toyonoshima 7-6

7-6 Shohozan M5 Takayasu 8-5

(x) 6-7 Yoshikaze M6 Takekaze 7-6

(x) 6-7 Fujiazuma M7

9-4 Tokitenku M8

M9 Ikioi 8-5

9-4 Chiyotairyu M10

M11 Gagamaru 10-3

Chiyotairyu in fact gets dragged up all the way as tomorrow's opponent for Goeido, and Gagamaru gets to prove himself against Myogiryu. Toyonoshima and Shohozan don't have easy tasks either against the Sadogatake ozeki pair, while Takayasu can very likely ensure his sanyaku debut and pull down Tochiozan for good in their matchup. Takekaze and Ikioi are also set against each other and Tokitenku gets the easiest opponent on paper in low-ranked Masunoyama.

In lower makuuchi things have now cleared up a bit as expected with Sadanofuji, Daido and Masunoyama having done enough to merit a stay in the division even under the strong-records onslaught from juryo. (Kaisei probably, too, but I'll keep him question-marked for consistency for now.) Chiyonokuni is also safe now by outright kachikoshi. On the other hand Homarefuji is now definitely on the way down, and Chiyootori and Azumaryu have their backs against the wall after losses, needing to win both remaining bouts to have any chance of staying. (Actually, they haven't faced each other yet, so there's a possibility of engineering a demotion on senshuraku here if they survive Day 14.)

In juryo the yusho race is really heating up, but more importantly for this thread Tamaasuka has joined his stablemate Tamawashi and Kotoyuki in being a lock for promotion. Tokushoryu is also in a good position now but should add one more win to make a convincing case. Takanoiwa lost today and is almost certainly not getting promoted (unless everybody in makuuchi falls apart at the finish line), while Oiwato kept his kinda-sorta promotion chances alive in his makuuchi visit against Homarefuji. Kagamio is now "officially" out after losing his yusho-race bout with Tamaasuka, but he was a longshot even with a possible 14-1 finish anyway.

M7 Jokoryu 3-10 (?)

M8 Sadanofuji 5-8 (o)

...

(?) 5-8 Shotenro M11

(1) 5-8 Wakanosato M12 Kyokushuho 5-5-3 (1)

(o) 7-6 Daido M13 Masunoyama 7-6 (o)

(?) 7-6 Kaisei M14 Chiyootori 5-8 (2)

(o) 8-5 Chiyonokuni M15 Homarefuji 4-9 (x)

(2) 6-7 Azumaryu M16 Daikiho 2-11 (x)

(o) 10-3 Tamawashi J1

(x) 6-7 Takanoiwa J2 Tamaasuka 10-3 (o)

(2) 7-6 Oiwato J3 Kotoyuki 11-2 (o)

J4

J5

(?) 11-2 Tokushoryu J6

...

J13 Kagamio 11-2 (x)

Down in juryo some more rikishi have reached technically safe ground as well with Sagatsukasa (ending Takanoiwa's makuuchi hopes) and Kizenryu (destroying makushita visitor Sakigake's dreams). Kimurayama lost #10 and is the first definite demotion - do keep in mind this slot is already claimed by returning Sokokurai.

Akiseyama and Chiyoo lost against yusho contenders (Osunaarashi and Kotoyuki, respectively) and now can't afford another loss, Kitaharima and Chiyoarashi also lost and need at least one win in the last two. And so does Tanzo, but he had to win today (against Chiyoarashi) to get to this stage.

With Osunaarashi's victory we're now needing at least three free slots in juryo to avoid the appearance of massively bad banzuke luck for somebody, and that's going to be an interesting project, to say the least.

(o) 4-9 Sagatsukasa J7

J8 Tanzo 4-9 (1)

J9

J10

(o) 6-7 Kizenryu J11 Kimurayama 3-10 (x)

(1) 6-7 Kitaharima J12 Chiyoarashi 6-7 (1)

(2) 5-8 Akiseyama J13

(2) 6-7 Chiyoo J14

(o) 4-2 Seiro Ms1 Yoshiazuma 4-2

(x) 3-4 Sakigake Ms2 Kotomisen 3-3

4-2 Endo Ms3

Ms4 Arawashi 3-4 (x)

4-2 Chiyomaru Ms5

Ms6

(o) 7-0 Osunaarashi Ms7

Stuff happening tomorrow:

More intra-maegashira matches among the guys still in danger (with some guest spots by rikishi who are freshly safe, due to the one-day-ahead scheduling). In a crossover bout Takanoiwa faces Chiyootori and might pull him back down to juryo, but it's probably too little too late for his own promotion hopes.

The juryo yusho race sees another direct matchup, this time between Kagamio (11-2) and Tamawashi (10-3) - this leaves just one more possible match for Day 15, namely Tokushoryu against Kotoyuki (currently both 11-2) and it could be a straight yusho decider if they both win tomorrow and Kagamio loses either against Tamawashi or earlier in the day on senshuraku. In any case, for Day 14 Tokushoryu gets another opponent that wants to avoid demotion (Chiyoarashi), while Kotoyuki has to contend against Tochinowaka (9-4) who'd still technically be in the yusho race at two wins behind if it wasn't for the upcoming Tokushoryu-Kotoyuki matchup. Yusho contender #5 Tamaasuka has drawn a fairly lucky assignment against demotee-to-be Homarefuji.

The question of which three 4-2 makushitans are being sent up to juryo has been answered; Seiro is the one who doesn't have to go there, getting Kotokuni as his final opponent instead. That leaves Endo (4-2, against Chiyoo) and Kotomisen (3-3, against Kitaharima) for tomorrow, with Yoshiazuma and Chiyomaru waiting in the wings for Day 15. The scheduling for the other demotion candidates confuses me a bit as it involves rikishi who are technically safe now - well, if they're going to bring excessive demotions back to juryo, this basho would be an excellent starting point. As such, perhaps Sagatsukasa (against Akiseyama) and Kizenryu (against Tanzo) can't be that sure of their survival yet, so these bouts should still see two motivated opponents.

Last not least - there's also one last potential direct matchup here, namely Tanzo versus Chiyoo. In case both need a win on senshuraku the torikumi crew might elect to have them fight it out against each other, especially if Yoshiazuma and Chiyomaru are needed for matchups against other teetering juryo rikishi.

Edited May 24, 2013 by Asashosakari

[ronnie 221]

Chiyootori and Azumaryu have their backs against the wall after losses, (?) 7-6 Kaisei M14 Chiyootori 5-8 (2)

Isn't Sokokurai earmarked for the Mw15 slot? That being the case, then Chiyootori is most likely demoted already whether he wins his remaining bouts or not. The same could be argued for Kyokushuho whether he returns or not.

[Mukonoso 273]

Man it seems that any rikishi that I choose to support really doesn't do very well at all when it comes to consistancy. Kotooshu, Takanoyama, Jokoryu... I feel like my support is like the kiss of death, or at least lethargy. Anyone want to pay me to support a rikishi they dislike? ;-)

[aderechelsea 124]

Man it seems that any rikishi that I choose to support really doesn't do very well at all when it comes to consistancy. Kotooshu, Takanoyama, Jokoryu... I feel like my support is like the kiss of death, or at least lethargy. Anyone want to pay me to support a rikishi they dislike? ;-)

Kisenosato maybe? B-)

[shumitto 418]

Chiyootori and Azumaryu have their backs against the wall after losses, (?) 7-6 Kaisei M14 Chiyootori 5-8 (2)

Isn't Sokokurai earmarked for the Mw15 slot? That being the case, then Chiyootori is most likely demoted already whether he wins his remaining bouts or not. The same could be argued for Kyokushuho whether he returns or not.

Not at all. A 7-8 Chiyootori would be safe, maybe in the last last rank, but still in the division. Kyokushuho is not coming back this time anyway so he will probably have to fight in Juryo.

[Asashosakari 18,784]

Isn't Sokokurai earmarked for the Mw15 slot? That being the case, then Chiyootori is most likely demoted already whether he wins his remaining bouts or not.

Others could end up with even worse records and thus ahead in the demotion queue.

[krindel 671]

With Goeido's MK the situotion on the sanyaku front is starting to border on funny... And it will get even funnier if Kotooshu manages to save himself, in that case I really see the possibility of Goeido and / or Tochiozan only dropping half a rank assuming they can end up with 7-8 scores...

Otherwise its very likely we'll end up having a Sekiwake with a 9-6 from M5 or an 11-4 from even further down :-).

[Koorifuu 886]

At this point we can safely assume Myogiryu is a lock-on sekiwake for the next banzuke, even if Kotooshu is demoted. He won't be behind a possible 7-8 Goeido on the pecking order.

[Asashosakari 18,784]

With Goeido's MK the situotion on the sanyaku front is starting to border on funny... And it will get even funnier if Kotooshu manages to save himself, in that case I really see the possibility of Goeido and / or Tochiozan only dropping half a rank assuming they can end up with 7-8 scores...

Was only 10 months ago that Goeido went Se->Sw with 7 wins, so this current shimpan crew is clearly comfortable with that approach. And the best other candidate for his sekiwake slot was M2e 8-7, much better than what they're going to get this time (barring a Kotooshu demotion).

In any case, Ikioi's candidacy ended as quickly as it came, but everyone else listed yesterday is still conceivably in the running.

O2 Kotooshu 7-7

(?) 6-8 Goeido S Baruto 3-5-6 (x)

(?) 6-8 Tochiozan K Okinoumi 3-11 (x)

(o) 10-4 Myogiryu M1

M2

M3

M4 Toyonoshima 7-7

8-6 Shohozan M5 Takayasu 8-6

M6 Takekaze 8-6

M7

10-4 Tokitenku M8

M9 Ikioi 8-6 (x)

10-4 Chiyotairyu M10

M11 Gagamaru 10-4

In lower makuuchi losses by Chiyootori and Azumaryu plus Kyokushuho's non-reappearance on the schedule mean we now have 5 open slots, enough to cover the big 4 candidates from juryo + Sokokurai. And all five are in definitely worse positions than anybody else, so there's no saving them now. The only question left is if somebody might grab yet another promotion. My guess: If Oiwato wins and Wakanosato loses, they'll be exchanged as well. If Sato wins I suspect Oiwato will miss out, even if Jokoryu or Shotenro picks up a loss to leave himself sorta-demotable. I still don't think Takanoiwa is in the running anymore, even if he can still finish 8-7...maaaybe if Oiwato and Wakanosato both lose, but I would say it's more likely that Sato gets a lucky reprieve in that scenario. (For the second time in three basho.)

M7 Jokoryu 3-11 (?)

...

(?) 5-9 Shotenro M11

(1) 5-9 Wakanosato M12 Kyokushuho 5-5-4 (x)

M13

(o) 8-6 Kaisei M14 Chiyootori 5-9 (x)

M15 Homarefuji 5-9 (x)

(x) 6-8 Azumaryu M16 Daikiho 2-11 (x)

(o) 11-3 Tamawashi J1

J2 Tamaasuka 10-4 (o)

(1) 8-6 Oiwato J3 Kotoyuki 12-2 (o)

J4

J5

(o) 12-2 Tokushoryu J6

Chiyoo finally opened up a 2nd slot in juryo with today's loss against Endo, but as Seiro improved to 5-2 (which really should be a no-doubt promotion now) we're still no further to a satisfactory solution of the banzuke puzzle. As such I'm listing/relisting everybody who just might be getting demoted in case the last three "regular" candidates for demotion all save themselves. That means Sagatsukasa, Tanzo and Kizenryu (who all reached normally-safe areas yesterday but proceeded to lose today) are still question-marked, as is Wakakoyu now. In fact, Sagatsukasa and Wakakoyu are meeting tomorrow in what just might be a sudden demotion playoff.

Anyway, besides Endo's victory (which probably won't be enough) there was also success by veteran Kotomisen who I for one had written off years ago. Just goes to show again, don't bet against Sadogatake-beya rikishi beating the usual aging curves.

(?) 4-10 Sagatsukasa J7

J8 Tanzo 5-9 (?)

(?) 5-9 Wakakoyu J9

J10

(?) 6-8 Kizenryu J11 Kimurayama 3-11 (x)

(1) 6-8 Kitaharima J12 Chiyoarashi 6-8 (1)

(1) 6-8 Akiseyama J13

(x) 6-8 Chiyoo J14

(o) 5-2 Seiro Ms1 Yoshiazuma 4-2

Ms2 Kotomisen 4-3

5-2 Endo Ms3

Ms4

4-2 Chiyomaru Ms5

Ms6

(o) 7-0 Osunaarashi Ms7

Besides the aforementioned Sagatsukasa-Wakakoyu bout there's crossover activity with Chiyoarashi-Yoshiazuma and Kitaharima-Chiyomaru, while Akiseyama gets Tochihiryu as his opponent. I wonder what's going to happen if Yoshiazuma (and only he) wins - that would open up slot #3 to cover Seiro, Osunaarashi and Sokokurai, while potentially leaving him stuck in makushita - unless they decide they don't care to Fukuoka him (especially with the other Ms1 having an identical record) and find somebody to over-demote. In that case it would probably be a decision between Akiseyama (then J13e 7-8) and the loser of Sagatsukasa-Wakakoyu (either J7e 4-11 or J9e 5-10, both virtual ties with Akiseyama's position).

The best possible outcome for the promotion hopefuls would be wins by all of Yoshiazuma, Chiyomaru and Tochihiryu, leading to 5 available slots - that would cover Sokokurai, Osunaarashi, Seiro, Yoshiazuma and Endo. It looks like Kotomisen will be stuck in makushita regardless of what happens, unless "what happens" is a surprise intai by somebody like Kotooshu, Wakanosato or Wakakoyu, or the banzuke committee decides to overthrow 12 years of precedent.

Edited May 26, 2013 by Asashosakari

[Koorifuu 886]

I am actually cheering for Endo to get the nod. As you said, it'd envolve some overdemotion, but hey... The man is a 5-2 from Ms3 with a couple of victorious juryo visits. He deserves it. Hopefully he'd get ahead of a 4-3 Yoshiazuma on the order.

I have stated my preference on watching Kotooshu grapple on life without ozeki benefits, but on the other hand I feel for Goeido who'd get demoted for sure if that happens. Wakanosato was on the same spot 10 years ago. Sekiwake for ages, flirting on a possible ozeki promotion and keeping his game up for a long time, then finally there comes a 6-9 and it's Game Over. It's dang unfair.

[yorikiried by fate 1,988]

I just realized that Tokitenku and Takekaze could very possibly occupy the Komusubi slots in Nagoya. The pain, the pain...

[Koorifuu 886]

I just realized that Tokitenku and Takekaze could very possibly occupy the Komusubi slots in Nagoya. The pain, the pain...

That would be a very henkaracterist sanyaku setup, definitely. Where's a sekiwake Aran when we need him?

[Asashosakari 18,784]

I just realized that Tokitenku and Takekaze could very possibly occupy the Komusubi slots in Nagoya. The pain, the pain...

Not a fan? ;-)

Indeed it looks like those two are the best candidates for the two sanyaku slots not occupied by Goeido and Myogiryu. I can't imagine that they'll make one of them sekiwake and Goeido gets sent down to komusubi, but stranger things have happened. Oddly enough Takekaze-Toyonoshima ended up being a direct promotion decider, thanks to Shohozan and Takayasu not winning earlier in the day.

O2 Kotooshu 8-7

(?) 7-8 Goeido S Baruto 3-5-7 (x)

(x) 6-9 Tochiozan K Okinoumi 4-11 (x)

(o) 11-4 Myogiryu M1

M2

M3

M4 Toyonoshima 7-8 (x)

8-7 Shohozan M5 Takayasu 8-7

M6 Takekaze 9-6

M7

10-5 Tokitenku M8

M9

10-5 Chiyotairyu M10

M11 Gagamaru 11-4

The makuuchi<->juryo picture looks pretty clear at last, after Oiwato was taken out of the race by already-demoted Chiyootori and Wakanosato proceeded to beat Azumaryu. Takanoiwa is promotable-ish with his 8-7 record from J2e, but there's no obvious demotion candidate with the closest one being 5-10 Shotenro at 6 ranks away from juryo, which should make it pretty unlikely to see Takanoiwa going up, especially as it would be a debut.

Not only do we have 4+ debutants all going MK for the first time, it's also the first time that 5+ rikishi were promoted altogether and all finished MK (although there have been some 5-out-of-6 cases and even a 6-out-of-7 case). In fact, all 5 are going back to juryo, only the second time that 5 rikishi will be sent packing again just two months after they got promoted.

M7 Jokoryu 4-11 (o)

...

(o) 5-10 Shotenro M11

(o) 6-9 Wakanosato M12 Kyokushuho 5-5-5 (x)

M13

M14 Chiyootori 6-9 (x)

M15 Homarefuji 5-10 (x)

(x) 6-9 Azumaryu M16 Daikiho 3-12 (x)

(o) 11-4 Tamawashi J1

J2 Tamaasuka 10-5 (o)

(x) 8-7 Oiwato J3 Kotoyuki 13-2 (o)

J4

J5

(o) 12-3 Tokushoryu J6

In lower juryo we nearly got the worst-case scenario, but thankfully Chiyomaru (ironically the least-involved rikishi) vanquished Kitaharima so there's at least guaranteed space for Sokokurai, Osunaarashi and Seiro. And I suspect that's going to be it, with the top of the next makushita being Ms1e Yoshiazuma, Ms1w Endo, Ms2e Kotomisen, Ms2w/3e Chiyoo & Kitaharima, Ms3w Chiyomaru. All in all a pretty screwed-up situation still.

If they do decide to drop more juryo incumbents there's no shortage of candidates, however. Sagatsukasa lost the "uh-oh, maybe we're screwed after all" matchup with Wakakoyu, and Kizenryu was unsuccessful as well. Chiyoarashi and Akiseyama round out the group of rikishi holding their breath till Wednesday despite being victorious on senshuraku.

(?) 4-11 Sagatsukasa J7

J8 Tanzo 6-9 (o)

(o) 6-9 Wakakoyu J9

J10

(?) 6-9 Kizenryu J11 Kimurayama 3-12 (x)

(x) 6-9 Kitaharima J12 Chiyoarashi 7-8 (?)

(?) 7-8 Akiseyama J13

(x) 7-8 Chiyoo J14

(o) 5-2 Seiro Ms1 Yoshiazuma 4-3

Ms2 Kotomisen 4-3

5-2 Endo Ms3

Ms4

5-2 Chiyomaru Ms5

Ms6

(o) 7-0 Osunaarashi Ms7

Edited May 26, 2013 by Asashosakari

[yorikiried by fate 1,988]

Maybe they end up keeping two M15ws after all!

Some tag team thing anyone?

(My favourite tag team would consist of Sadanofuji and Masunoyama -> Sadomasofujiyama)

[aderechelsea 124]

nice word mash-up there ..... :-D

kudos

[Nabuko 11]

I am bit confused in the case that they keep 42 for makuuchi and 28 for joruy it seem that they will have only two open slots in the juryo or they have to demote more rikishis?

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

I am bit confused in the case that they keep 42 for makuuchi and 28 for joruy it seem that they will have only two open slots in the juryo or they have to demote more rikishis?

You are right, and it looks like Osunaarashi and Seiro will take these two slots (like Asashosakari wrote).

[ronnie 221]

I am bit confused in the case that they keep 42 for makuuchi and 28 for joruy it seem that they will have only two open slots in the juryo or they have to demote more rikishis?

You are right, and it looks like Osunaarashi and Seiro will take these two slots (like Asashosakari wrote).

Isn't there a possibility that Akiseyama or/and Sagatsukasa might go down? Or will they share the J14 slots?

[krindel 671]

Well, like Asashosakari said, it is possible, the situation is such that banzuke bad luck will strike someone, either Akiseyama and/or Sagatsukasa or Yoshiazuma and/or Endo. Either decision would be unfair to someone, so its a very tough call...

Oh, and by the way, my warm thanks to Asashosakari for his always excellent work with the number crunching, it is a big help for understanding the promotion / demotion mechanics...

[shumitto 418]

Worst banzuke "luck" ever for Endo, Kotomisen and Yoshiazuma. Specially for the latter two as they are not getting any younger (who is anyway ?) and might not have another shot in their careers.

[Jaak 7]

So, who are the Nagoya-basho 2013 sanyaku?

Obvious S1e:

M1e 11:4G Myogiryu

One demotee entitled to stay in sanyaku:

S1e 7:8 Goeido

Thus two vacancies. And list of eligible promotees:

M5e 8:7 Shohozan

M5w 8:7 Takayasu

M6w 9:6 Takekaze

M8e 10:5 Tokitenku

M10e 10:5 Chiyotairyu

M11w 11:4 Gagamaru.

What is the order of these promotees?

Edited May 28, 2013 by Jaak

[Nabuko 11]

From my point of view Takekaze & Tokitenku. On the first day in Nagoya Tokitenku is kicking one of yoks.

[Golynohana 316]

Looks like Sagatsukasa, Kizenryu and Akiseyama will go down too, with 5 promotions to Juryo + Sokokurai

[aderechelsea 124]

off topic but i cannot think of where to post this ... (it doesn't deserve a topic of it's own for sure and Akiseyama's name here made me think about this)

i was rearranging my stuff and i happened to come across a poster for a photography exhibition named "Rikishi" by Charles Freger. On the back side of the poster there was pics of 3 kids with mawashis .... one of them i am 99.99% that it is Fukao/Akiseyama.

weird ... but yeah ... here he is .... (In jonokuchi...)

(if the mods would prefer this to be elsewhere ... feel free to do with it whatever you find appropriate)