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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Haru 2013

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Back again with another edition of LKS, and with lots of rikishi to predict this time around.

1. Hakuho 36 [score?]

2. Kisenosato 13 [score?]

3. Harumafuji 12 [score?]

4. Kakuryu 12 [score?]

5. Chiyoarashi 6

6. Meisei 6

7. Azumaryu 5

8. Kawanari 5

9. Byakko 5

10. Osunaarashi 5*

11. Mitoyutaka 5

12. Tsugaruumi 5*

13. Fujiazuma 4

14. Sensho 4

(* marks rikishi with no makekoshi since debut)

The scoring and thus your game assignment:

- For yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake: Please predict an exact record for each rikishi. The target record will be calculated after the deadline and will be chosen so that it bisects the predictions as evenly as possible. The predictions will then be converted into + and - votes as usual; one point for each correct prediction.

- For lower-ranked rikishi: Please predict for each rikishi if he will finish KK or MK; one point for each correct prediction.

First tie-breaker: From among those 14 guys up there and the further 13 rikishi (11 'veterans' and 2 rookies) who are currently just shy of a 5-KK streak, please guess how many KK you expect in total. Your tie-breaker guess may be anything from 0 to 27. Only exactly correct guesses qualify at this tie-breaker stage. Note: Yokozuna, ozeki and sekiwake count as correct for the tie-breaker if they achieve KK, they do not need to meet their target records.

Next 13 tie-breakers if needed: Correctly predicted rikishi, one-by-one in ballot order, i.e. starting at Hakuho.

Penultimate tie-breaker, should two or more players have entered identical ballots: Proximity of their tie-breaker guesses to the correct number.

Final tie-breaker, should two or more players with identical ballots have entered identical tie-breaker guesses as well or be at the same distance from opposite sides: earliest entry.

Note: Rikishi who show up on the before-shonichi kyujo list will be excluded from scoring (even if they end up joining the basho later), so it is not necessary to re-submit your entry if you picked such a rikishi as a KK; he will not count for points anyhow. You may, however, notify me if you'd like to reduce your tie-breaker guess by one point to compensate for the "missing" rikishi. Your position on the entry list (for final tie-breaker purposes) will be deemed unchanged in this special situation. Any other changes to a ballot will be considered a new entry, with correspondingly lower priority for the final tie-breaker.

Deadline: Shonichi noon JST.

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1. Hakuho 14

2. Kisenosato 11

3. Harumafuji 13

4. Kakuryu 9

5. Chiyoarashi Y

6. Meisei N

7. Azumaryu Y

8. Kawanari N

9. Byakko N

10. Osunaarashi Y

11. Mitoyutaka Y

12. Tsugaruumi N

13. Fujiazuma N

14. Sensho N

14 on the tiebreaker.

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1 Hakuho 14-1

2 Kisenosato 10-5

3 Harumafuji 13-2

4 Kakuryu 9-6

5 Chiyoarashi KK

6 Meisei KK

7 Azumaryu MK

8 Kawanari MK

9 Byakko MK

10 Osunaarashi KK (Go Booty!)

11 Mitoyutaka MK

12 Tsugaruumi MK

13 Fujiazuma KK

14 Sensho MK

TB 13 is the lucky number

Thanks for running this game again for Haru!

kuroimori

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1. Hakuho 13

2. Kisenosato 12

3. Harumafuji 13

4. Kakuryu 10

5. Chiyoarashi y

6. Meisei n

7. Azumaryu n

8. Kawanari y

9. Byakko n

10. Osunaarashi y

11. Mitoyutaka y

12. Tsugaruumi y

13. Fujiazuma n

14. Sensho y

I forgot the tiebreaker: 12

Profomisakari

Edited by Profomisakari

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1. Hakuho 13
2. Kisenosato 10
3. Harumafuji 13
4. Kakuryu 10
5. Chiyoarashi Y
6. Meisei Y
7. Azumaryu Y
8. Kawanari N
9. Byakko N
10. Osunaarashi Y
11. Mitoyutaka Y
12. Tsugaruumi Y
13. Fujiazuma Y
14. Sensho Y

17 for the tiebreaker.

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1. Hakuho 13-2
2. Kisenosato 10-5
3. Harumafuji 13-2
4. Kakuryu 9-6
5. Chiyoarashi Y
6. Meisei Y
7. Azumaryu Y
8. Kawanari N
9. Byakko N
10. Osunaarashi Y
11. Mitoyutaka N
12. Tsugaruumi N
13. Fujiazuma N
14. Sensho N

TB: 14

Pandaazuma

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1. Hakuho 14
2. Kisenosato 10
3. Harumafuji 12
4. Kakuryu 11

5. Chiyoarashi Y
6. Meisei y

7. Azumaryu Y
8. Kawanari N
9. Byakko Y

10. Osunaarashi N

11. Mitoyutaka N

12. Tsugaruumi N
13. Fujiazuma Y

14. Sensho Y


13 tiebreaker.

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1. Hakuho 14
2. Kisenosato 12
3. Harumafuji 14
4. Kakuryu 11
5. Chiyoarashi KK
6. Meisei KK
7. Azumaryu KK
8. Kawanari KK
9. Byakko MK
10. Osunaarashi KK
11. Mitoyutaka MK
12. Tsugaruumi KK
13. Fujiazuma MK
14. Sensho MK

TB: 15

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1. Hakuho 14-1

2. Kisenosato 11-4

3. Harumafuji 12-3

4. Kakuryu 9-6

5. Chiyoarashi KK

6. Meisei KK

7. Azumaryu KK

8. Kawanari KK

9. Byakko MK

10. Osunaarashi KK

11. Mitoyutaka KK

12. Tsugaruumi KK

13. Fujiazuma MK

14. Sensho MK

TB: 15

Screeching Owl

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1. Hakuho 13-2
2. Kisenosato 10-5
3. Harumafuji 13-2
4. Kakuryu 10-5
5. Chiyoarashi KK
6. Meisei MK
7. Azumaryu KK
8. Kawanari MK
9. Byakko MK
10. Osunaarashi KK
11. Mitoyutaka MK
12. Tsugaruumi KK
13. Fujiazuma KK
14. Sensho MK

TB: 16

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Here are my predictions:

1. Hakuho 14-1
2. Kisenosato 10-5
3. Harumafuji 12-3
4. Kakuryu 9-6
5. Chiyoarashi KK
6. Meisei MK
7. Azumaryu KK
8. Kawanari MK
9. Byakko MK
10. Osunaarashi KK
11. Mitoyutaka MK
12. Tsugaruumi MK

13. Fujiazuma MK
14. Sensho MK

My TB is: 13 (My first grandson was born on February 13, 2013 :-) )

Achiyama

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1. Hakuho 13-2
2. Kisenosato 10-5
3. Harumafuji 12-3
4. Kakuryu 9-6
5. Chiyoarashi KK
6. Meisei MK
7. Azumaryu MK
8. Kawanari KK
9. Byakko MK
10. Osunaarashi KK
11. Mitoyutaka MK
12. Tsugaruumi MK
13. Fujiazuma MK
14. Sensho MK

TB: 11

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14 Hakuho
11 Kisenosato
11 Harumafuji
9 Kakuryu
+ Chiyoarashi
- Meisei
+ Azumaryu
- Kawanari
+ Byakko
+ Osunaarashi
- Mitoyutaka
+ Tsugaruumi
- Fujiazuma
- Sensho

TB 13

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aargh, might be too late (shouldn't have fallen asleep), but nevertheless :

13 Hakuho

10 Kisenosato

12 Harumafuji

09 Kakuryu

KK Chiyoarashi

KK Meisei

KK Azumaryu

MK Kawanari

MK Byakko

KK Osunaarashi

MK Mitoyutaka

KK Tsugaruumi

MK Fujiazuma

KK Sensho

TB : 16

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14 players! Many thanks for your patronage. ScreechingOwl makes his game debut. (Welcome...) The selection summary:

Player

Haku

Kise

Haru

Kaku

Chi

Mei

Azu

Kawa

Bya

Osu

Mito

Tsu

Fuji

Sen

TB

Cons

Asojima + (14-1) + (11-4) + (13-2) - (9-6)

+

-

+

-

-

+

+

-

-

-

14

1.57

kuroimori + (14-1) - (10-5) + (13-2) - (9-6)

+

+

-

-

-

+

-

-

+

-

13

1.62

Holleshoryu - (13-2) - (10-5) + (13-2) + (10-5)

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

+

17

1.78

Pandaazuma - (13-2) - (10-5) + (13-2) - (9-6)

+

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

-

-

14

1.32

Profomisakari - (13-2) + (12-3) + (13-2) + (10-5)

+

-

-

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

12

2.01

Fay + (14-1) - (10-5) - (12-3) + (11-4)

+

+

+

-

+

-

-

-

+

+

13

2.05

Mmikasazuma + (14-1) + (12-3) + (14-1) + (11-4)

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

+

-

-

15

1.57

ScreechingOwl + (14-1) + (11-4) - (12-3) - (9-6)

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

-

15

1.62

ryafuji - (13-2) - (10-5) + (13-2) + (10-5)

+

-

+

-

-

+

-

+

+

-

16

1.62

Achiyama + (14-1) - (10-5) - (12-3) - (9-6)

+

-

+

-

-

+

-

-

-

-

13

1.32

Doitsuyama - (13-2) - (10-5) - (12-3) - (9-6)

+

-

-

+

-

+

-

-

-

-

11

1.66

Jejima + (14-1) - (10-5) - (12-3) - (8-7)

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

-

-

+

18

1.48

Asashosakari + (14-1) + (11-4) - (11-4) - (9-6)

+

-

+

-

+

+

-

+

-

-

13

1.66

Vikanohara - (13-2) - (10-5) - (12-3) - (9-6)

+

+

+

-

-

+

-

+

-

+

16

1.43

[/td]

8:6

5:9

7:7

5:9

14:0

8:6

11:3

5:9

2:12

13:1

4:10

7:7

4:10

5:9

Chiyoarashi is unanimously expected to take another step towards his juryo revival, so "only" 13 rikishi will be in play.

The new high-ranker rules have produced fairly balanced selections again, so it should be interesting to see how they fare. Hakuho, Kisenosato and Kakuryu ended up getting predicted similarly to last time (meaning their target lines are again at 14, 11 and 10 wins), while Harumafuji's impressive zensho in January resulted in more optimism among us, pushing his target up to 13-2 and even giving a 7:7 split for that. (Last basho: 1-11 for 13-2, actual gameplay was 9:3 for 12-3; would be 13:1 for that target this time.) After converting the selections, 10 different prediction slates resulted for the top-rankers, none entered by more than 2 players.

Three more sekitori were on the ballot. Azumaryu has received a lot of support following his successful sekitori debut two months ago, but Fujiazuma and Sensho are longer shots for KK if we're right.

Among the toriteki two rikishi stand out for being KK-less in their careers so far. Osunaarashi has been deemed extremely likely to continue his rise, with only Fay giving his chances a thumbs down. Less heralded Tsugaruumi (he of the ex-juryo grandfather of the same name) did hold his own in the balloting and sports a 7:7 split of opinion.

Heavyweight Kawanari is hunting for a kesho mawashi this basho, but if it's our call he's going to fall short of it for now. The ballot also includes two Tier 1 Hopefuls in Meisei and Mitoyutaka, but their predictions do diverge a bit with a slightly positive outlook on younger Meisei in his makushita sophomore appearance, and a rather negative view on Mitoyutaka. Finally, even fewer people expect mid-level prospect Byakko to score a KK and break into the makushita joi zone.

Very diverse selections were made for the tiebreaker this time around, every number from 11 to 18 was chosen by somebody. I've rarely felt so sure that we're going to have at least one TB success story. ;-) Keep in mind that getting the tie-breaker right is worth an extra win, so there's value even if you don't figure in the yusho race.

Two players have produced far more outrageous selections than the rest of the field - as usual Fay is leading the pack, but Profomisakari is on her heels this basho. Oddly enough they have just 3 picks in common, the lowest number of any pairing this basho; only Chiyoarashi (of course), Kakuryu and Sensho were voted the same way by Profo and Fay.

Profo does have the edge in anti-mainstream votes, voting against the majority on 8 rikishi (out of 12 possible, discounting the 7:7's), while Fay is on the short side only 6 times. She makes up for it by having some particularly extreme selections though, such as the only down vote on Osunaarashi and being one of just two KK votes on Byakko.

Closest to the overall consensus this basho are Achiyama and Pandaazuma, each voting against the majority on only one rikishi. (Minimum possible consensus score 1.27, maximum 2.46, mean 1.62.) They also show the most agreement with 11 picks in common, but so do lots of other pairings, 10 in total.

Good luck, everyone!

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Day 8:

The first sekitori decision of the basho comes courtesy of yokozuna Harumafuji who, at 5-3, can no longer reach his 13-2 target. Three toriteki have started their basho 0-4 and are already destined to leave us; exactly half the entrants predicted this career-first makekoshi for Tsurugaumi, while Kawanari (going for juryo promotion) and Byakko attracted a lot more MK predictions. Achiyama is the only one to walk away with all 4 points, while kuroimori and Pandaazuma also got the three lower-rankers correct but missed on the yokozuna.

Hakuho is the first rikishi to reach KK, but of course with him it only has tiebreaker implications. No scoring rikishi in the backup squad thus far, everybody is between 3-1 and 1-3.

Day 8:
4/14 Decisions, TB 1-23

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Achiyama

4

13

2

Doitsuyama

3

11

3

Fay

3

13

3

kuroimori

3

13

5

Asojima

3

14

5

Pandaazuma

3

14

7

Vikanohara

3

16

8

Jejima

3

18

9

Asashosakari

2

13

10

ScreechingOwl

2

15

11

ryafuji

2

16

12

Holleshoryu

2

17

13

Profomisakari

1

12

14

Mmikasazuma

1

15

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Day 9:

Azumaryu and Osunaarashi were both overwhelmingly selected for kachikoshi, and they proved (most of) us right by getting to the winning record early. Achiyama continues to be perfect atop the standings.

In the backup ranks heavyweight veteran Daigofuji is the first to KK.

Day 9:

6/14 Decisions, TB 4-23

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Achiyama

6

13

2

Asojima

5

14

2

Pandaazuma

5

14

4

Vikanohara

5

16

5

Jejima

5

18

6

Doitsuyama

4

11

7

Asashosakari

4

13

7

Fay

4

13

7

kuroimori

4

13

10

ScreechingOwl

4

15

11

ryafuji

4

16

12

Holleshoryu

4

17

13

Mmikasazuma

3

15

14

Profomisakari

2

12

Edited by Asashosakari

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My tsuna hopes are already toast, amazingly, as Achiyama and I have only one different selection among the remaining eight, and it's not even a good one for me. (I need 5-4 Kisenosato to finish 11-4...)

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Day 10:

Chiyoarashi is KK, which comes as a surprise to none of us.

Backupper Hamaguchi improved to 4-1 in his makushita debut and will join the ballot proper next time - as will Kyokushuho through the sekitori 4-KK dispensation.

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Day 11:

It's makekoshi time for talented Meisei after more than a year, while Fujiazuma has an early (and unexpected by us) KK, the latter also ending Achiyama's run of perfection.

In tiebreaker news Harumafuji is kachikoshi at last, but collegiate newcomer Iwasaki scores his career-first MK and won't make it onto the next ballot. Neither will Daishokai who also fell to MK.

Day 11:

9/14 Decisions, TB 8-20

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Achiyama

8

13

2

Asojima

7

14

3

ryafuji

7

16

4

Doitsuyama

6

11

5

Asashosakari

6

13

5

Fay

6

13

5

kuroimori

6

13

8

Pandaazuma

6

14

9

Vikanohara

6

16

10

Holleshoryu

6

17

11

Jejima

6

18

12

ScreechingOwl

5

15

13

Profomisakari

4

12

14

Mmikasazuma

4

15

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Six players can still win the yusho: Achiyama, Asojima, Fay, Holleshoryu, ryafuji and Vikanohara.

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Day 12:

After three decisions were made today, the yusho is almost decided. Kisenosato lost against Hakuho and can no longer reach his 11-4 target, and Sensho (4-8) and Mitoyutaka (2-3-1) fell to makekoshi. Each of these three outcomes was predicted by a majority of us - Achiyama, Doitsuyama, kuroimori, Pandaazuma and ryafuji pick up all three possible points, while only Profomisakari leaves the day scoreless.

In the backup realm it's a KK for Takatoshi and a MK for Fukunokuni.

Day 12:

12/14 Decisions, TB 9-17

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Achiyama

11

13

2

ryafuji

10

16

3

Doitsuyama

9

11

4

kuroimori

9

13

5

Pandaazuma

9

14

6

Asashosakari

8

13

6

Fay

8

13

8

Asojima

8

14

9

Vikanohara

8

16

10

Jejima

8

18

11

Holleshoryu

7

17

12

Mmikasazuma

6

15

12

ScreechingOwl

6

15

14

Profomisakari

4

12

The yusho decision is down to just Achiyama and ryafuji now, and ryafuji needs things to break just right to have a chance - Kakuryu needs to win all three remaining matches, and Hakuho needs to lose at least one more bout in addition to losing to Kakuryu. Any other scenario and the yusho is Achiyama's.

The final tiebreaker score is still very much up in the air as no less than 6 of the 12 backup rikishi stand at 3-3 now. At least we're pretty sure to have somebody pick up the bonus win this time - assuming the two ozeki finish KK we're guaranteed a TB in the range of 11 to 17, which is fully covered by predictions.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 13:

Ryafuji continues to hang in there, courtesy of Kakuryu's victory over yokozuna Harumafuji. But as Hakuho also won, there's now just one possible path to the yusho for him: Kakuryu needs to beat Hakuho tomorrow and Kisenosato on Sunday, and Harumafuji also needs to beat Hakuho.

In any case, both Kisenosato and Kakuryu are kachikoshi after today and will remain in play for Natsu basho. In the backup ranks two rikishi didn't make it, however, as both Tochimaru and lowest-ranked Kirinofuji fell to 3-4. The TB range now stands at 11-15, with the final four outcomes being determined tomorrow. 10 players still have a chance to grab the bonus win for the rankings.

The next ballot will be significantly deeper than 11 to 15 rikishi though, as there will be a number of 4-KK sekitori invitations. Goeido, Tochiozan, Kyokushuho, Homarefuji and Kamei are already on the guest list, and Kagamio can still join them if he improves from 6-7 to kachikoshi.

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Day 15:

And we're done here one day early as all rikishi have decided their fates. Hakuho beat Kakuryu to reach his target and deny his opponent's, so all that's left to say is: Congratulations Achiyama! (Yusho winner...)

Final standings:

Day 15:

14/14 Decisions, TB 13

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Achiyama

13

13

2

kuroimori

11

13

3

Asashosakari

10

13

4

Asojima

10

14

4

Doitsuyama

10

11

4

Jejima

10

18

4

Pandaazuma

10

14

4

ryafuji

10

16

9

Fay

9

13

10

Vikanohara

9

16

11

ScreechingOwl

8

15

12

Holleshoryu

7

17

12

Mmikasazuma

7

15

14

Profomisakari

4

12

It's quite possibly the most dominant LKS victory ever, with Achiyama not only getting 13 out of 14 selections right (the only miss: Fujiazuma), but also hitting the correct tiebreaker score. The last 4 TB decisions went down with MKs for Kotokuni (sigh) and Kotokuzan (no, not a Sadogatake rikishi), and KKs for Kotomisen and Sadanishiki. All in all, four players managed to guess the TB score correctly, tying the all-time record set last basho.

Lineup for Natsu basho:

1. Hakuho 37

2. Kisenosato 14

3. Harumafuji 13

4. Kakuryu 13

5. Chiyoarashi 7

Meisei 6

6. Azumaryu 6

Kawanari 5

Byakko 5

7. Osunaarashi 6*

Mitoyutaka 5

Tsugaruumi 5*

8. Fujiazuma 5

Sensho 4

9. Kotomisen 5

10. Hamaguchi 5*

11. Takatoshi 5

12. Daigofuji 5

13. Sadanishiki 5

14. Goeido 4

15. Tochiozan 4

16. Kyokushuho 4

17. Homarefuji 4

18. Kagamio 4 (?)

19. Kamei 4

Kagamio is actually still making up his mind on his ballot inclusion, so it'll be either 18 or 19 entries. Weirdly, it looks as though the backup squad will only have 4 rikishi for May...that's by far the lowest number of 4-KK rikishi in the lower divisions I can recall since this game began.

Contrary to the current rules I will probably be opening up Tochiozan's selection to specific win-loss guesses as well - after consecutive meatgrinder results of 10-5, 8-7, and now 9-6 or 10-5, I'm worried about everybody selecting for a KK otherwise.

That's all for this edition, thanks for playing! (I am not worthy...)

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