Number of Heya Applications at record low :(

[勝 Katsu 20]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/nov/01/sumo-recruitment-low-japan?CMP=twt_gu

[Bugman 384]

I too saw that article, just out of curiousity, is the quota on foreigners entering Sumo still in place? It's the old conversation isn't it, "are foreign rikishi good for Sumo?" If local recruitment dries up to catastrophic levels they may have little choice, but would that drive the popularity of Sumo further down? etc etc,

In the article it also says Doreen Simmons (Orion on these boards? I'm pretty sure it is) is not worried about the future of Sumo so i take comfort from that.

Edited November 3, 2012 by Bugman

[wanderer 159]

I've found this article

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/02/business/japan-sumo-shortage/index.html?hpt=hp_c4

Is it just foreigners think that sumo is in decline? How japanese think of current state of sumo?

One thing is clear. Not many young japanese will come to this archaic life style.

[Asojima 2,870]

One thing is clear. Not many young japanese will come to this archaic life style.

People have been saying this for at least the last 35 years that I know of, but the number of Ozumo rikishi is still way above critical mass. The high school, college and amasumo programs are also relatively strong. The media loves to play the statistical game. A large number of mediocre recruits can come through a swinging gate. The important factor is the staying power of the quality recruits.

[Swami 245]

Perhaps if the next yokozuna is Japanese it might stir up a bit more interest again.

Swami

[Kuroyama 715]

Maybe it's just the camera being selective, but it seems to me I usually see a broad mix of ages in the audience. On weekdays you might expect to normally see more retirees and others who need not work or study, but that's to be expected. Recall the lifestyle of the average Japanese high school student.

Sumo's popularity goes up and down. It's happened before, it'll happen again. You can say the same about baseball in the US.

Edited November 3, 2012 by Kuroyama

[Asashosakari 18,786]

The high school, college and amasumo programs are also relatively strong.

I feel that's a crucial but underappreciated aspect. Much of the weeding-out process that used to take place in the stables (and thus on the banzuke) is now being done in high school and university programs, long before the "survivors" ever step on a professional dohyo. That cuts down on the number of applicants, but the ones that do sign up tend to be much further along in their development than equivalent rikishi 20 or 30 years ago. The old guard doesn't really seem to like that, and would probably prefer to be solely responsible for finding the two future sekitori in a batch of 20 raw diamonds, but even if those 20 have already been whittled down to 8 by the time they join, as long as the two future sekitori are still among them, what's the difference?

I know it undermines the whole "'Ozumo' means more than just teaching somebody to be good at sumo, it's also a preparation for life" angle, but well, it's no longer 1910.

Back during the early days of the Kyokai reform process, the idea of having a sort of "pro-am" status was tossed around, i.e. allowing middle school and high school amateurs to take part in honbasho in a limited capacity. That would effectively turn the strong school programs into "Ozumo academies" that are affiliated with the Kyokai - given how many of their students later turn pro already, it would just formalize what's happening anyway. And it would give the Kyokai an 'in' with more prospective rikishi, since the kids would know better what to expect. (I'll be honest, I'd rather see a jonidan division full of inexperienced kids that may still amount to something than overweight 26-year-olds who never made it and don't have anything better to do than stay in Ozumo. In that sense I can understand the old guard's frustration with the current situation.)

For those who haven't heard about it, something similar was actually forced on the Kyokai temporarily in the early 1970s, when the requirement that all rikishi must have finished middle school was introduced. Some younger ones were already in Ozumo at the time, so until they reached graduation age (and I assume they also had to go back to school), they were only allowed to compete in a limited schedule, specifically one bout each on the Tokyo basho Sundays. Future maegashira Kotochitose is one of the more prominent rikishi to spend several basho this way. I think that approach could work fairly well to integrate school-age amateurs into the rankings today, too. And it would reduce the silly practice of starting off wildly overqualified 18- and 22-year-olds in jonokuchi; they'd already have a more appropriate ranking by the time they turn fully pro. (The biggest issue to solve might be what to do if such a rikishi is so good that he's knocking on the door to juryo before he's finished his education. Though, if the most such a rikishi can achieve in a year is 3x 3-0 - equivalent for the banzuke to three 5-2's - there might not be enough time for him to rise that high.)

[Pandaazuma 1,310]

Excellent post, Asasho...thanks.

Yes, the popularity question pops up from time to time and I have heard it dozens of times. I don't feel there is a serious problem but it certainly wouldn't hurt to have a new Japanese superstar. Those who remember the Waka-Taka boom in the nineties, Chiyonofuji-jidai in the eighties and Taiho and so on further back will know what a difference having a star makes.

Having a number of quality Japanese wrestlers also counts...quite a few are in the mix now and the future looks fairly bright for fans of only Japanese lads.

[勝 Katsu 20]

I too saw that article, just out of curiousity, is the quota on foreigners entering Sumo still in place? It's the old conversation isn't it, "are foreign rikishi good for Sumo?" If local recruitment dries up to catastrophic levels they may have little choice, but would that drive the popularity of Sumo further down? etc etc,

In the article it also says Doreen Simmons (Orion on these boards? I'm pretty sure it is) is not worried about the future of Sumo so i take comfort from that.

I can't say whether there is still a foreigner quota. I will say that...as when I watch the Bashos...there's something about being here long enough that it causes me to regard new foreigners in Baydjing as tourists...or laowai (That's I-jin to Nihon) (People here normally use "wai-guo ren" as a polite way of differentiating and laowai is considered a little more rude and archaic)

As a fan of Asian culture, I'll admit I want to see Jhapaneez/Mongolian rikishi win. ;)

[Swami 245]

Some time ago there was a limit to one foreign rikishi per heya - is this still in place?

Swami

[Swami 245]

I suspect it is easy perhaps to form the impression that the rule was no longer in place, given the sheer number of foreign sekitori.

Swami

[Treblemaker 254]

Well, obviously what Sumo needs is a Japanese Yokozuna. Not only that, but one with a bit of charisma and some photogenic appeal that might fire up the imagination of the younger crowd. While the "conventional" wisdom might look to Kotoshogiku or Kise [the former insights no riots and the latter is too much of a yoyo], my money's on Miyogiryu. That being said, it's going to be a couple of years before that happens, if it happens at all.

There will always be sumo, unless the Next Greatest Scandal manages to completely disembowel the whole organization.

I've suggested this before: Create two different "leagues", one for Foreigners and one for Natives. Two different banzukes. Hold the tournaments on opposite months (Jan, Mar etc for Natives, Feb, Apr etc for Foreigners) giving us 12 tournaments a years, then in early Jan of the next year, feature a playoff of the best of each league. You might have Yokozunas for each group, and those would ultimately square off for the title of Uber-Yokozuna.

Naaaa.... It'll never fly.

[iron bug 8]

Well, obviously what Sumo needs is a Japanese Yokozuna. Not only that, but one with a bit of charisma and some photogenic appeal that might fire up the imagination of the younger crowd. While the "conventional" wisdom might look to Kotoshogiku or Kise [the former insights no riots and the latter is too much of a yoyo], my money's on Miyogiryu. That being said, it's going to be a couple of years before that happens, if it happens at all.

There will always be sumo, unless the Next Greatest Scandal manages to completely disembowel the whole organization.

I've suggested this before: Create two different "leagues", one for Foreigners and one for Natives. Two different banzukes. Hold the tournaments on opposite months (Jan, Mar etc for Natives, Feb, Apr etc for Foreigners) giving us 12 tournaments a years, then in early Jan of the next year, feature a playoff of the best of each league. You might have Yokozunas for each group, and those would ultimately square off for the title of Uber-Yokozuna.

Naaaa.... It'll never fly.

I would die from happiness if that happened simply because of how much sumo we would be subject to. It would also allow for more foreigners to have a chance of making a living by doing sumo. If there were stables open strictly for foreigners, for example, I would be more than willing to pack up and take my chances in sumo knowing I would have a stable to live and train in. The big "league-vs-league" rivalry thing could also spark some serious interest and excitement.

Not only would it be beneficial for foreign rikishi since there would be more opportunity, but Japanese youngsters might be more inclined to participate if it was an us vs. them kind of thing. They would be fighting for, not only their pride and honor (and, of course, money), but for their country.

Very similar results if sumo was an olympic sport.

[Asojima 2,870]

So they would form an A league with all of the foreign rikishi and would only allow the Japanese to fight in a B league. That would do wonders for their national pride.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

So they would form an A league with all of the foreign rikishi and would only allow the Japanese to fight in a B league. That would do wonders for their national pride.

I suspect both such leagues would go to the dogs in short order, the all-domestic one for the Triple-A perception and the all-foreigner one because...well, let's get real, how many Japanese people would come out to pay for tickets for that?

[Andreas21 182]

My opinion: best for Sumo would be to abolish the ban (only one foreign-born per heya) now!

What we're seeing now is the effect of the ban: the top Rikishi are almost all foreign but through all divisions foreigners are only 1%. In fact, it is almost what has been discussed before already: Sanyaku is the A-League for foreigners, the rest is B-league for Japanese. Is that appealing for the Japanese spectator? Obviously not, as he could extrapolate: would more foreigners be admitted, they would habitate Makuuchi and Juryo to 80%, as they habitate Sanyaku now.

But that would probably not even be the case. Japan is still the only country where Sumo is something quite a lot of boys try out. There are not so many Sumo talents abroad and if they would admit them freely, many of them would get stuck in Jd or Sd. But the feeling for the nationalist Japanese watcher would be much better, wouldn't it?

Most foreigners came before the ban was in place. In the last years, very very few foreigners came - one or two a year? In some years the top foreigners will be retired. and Japanese will be at the top. Great Japanese Yokozuna?? There will be the B-League only, and no A-League will exist anymore. Will that attract more spectators? Obviously not, it will slowly develop to a friends&family event as it is now up to Sd.

PS: don't quote me on numbers - they are not looked up.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Most foreigners came before the ban was in place.

Ban? Most? Not sure where to even start correcting that statement...

In the last years, very very few foreigners came - one or two a year? In some years the top foreigners will be retired. and Japanese will be at the top.

Have you not noticed that practically every spot that becomes available is taken up by a new foreign recruit in less than 12 months?

[yorikiried by fate 1,989]

My recent couple of yen on that general topic are here, with some follow-up thoughts here.

In case that anyone cares.

Edited November 6, 2012 by yorikiried by fate

[Randomitsuki 2,768]

I am wondering whether the dominance of foreigners will subside a little bit in a couple of years. In the last five years, there were only eleven foreign recruits. Only six of them have proven or prospective Makuuchi potential (Azumaryu, Takanoiwa, Aoiyama, Wakamisho, Takakasuga, Osunaarashi). How much can sumo be dominated by six foreigners? (Of course, if next two years a dozen new foreign recruits with high potential will start, my point might become moot again).

Edited November 6, 2012 by Randomitsuki

[Asashosakari 18,786]

I am wondering whether the dominance of foreigners will subside a little bit in a couple of years. In the last five years, there were only eleven foreign recruits. Only six of them have proven or prospective Makuuchi potential (Azumaryu, Takanoiwa, Aoiyama, Wakamisho, Takakasuga, Osunaarashi). How much can sumo be dominated by six foreigners? (Of course, if next two years a dozen new foreign recruits with high potential will start, my point might become moot again).

Kaisei, Gagamaru and Tochinoshin are all 25, Kyokushuho is 24. We're probably not going to have five foreign ozeki and yokozuna in, say, 2016, but I don't really see a significant change in the overall numbers coming, 1/3 of makuuchi seems easily maintainable to me.

In any case, just seeing a reduction in the number of foreign Y/O might well be enough to make the situation more palatable. If at all, people in the audience judge things by how many foreign rikishi they see in prominent positions, not how many occupy spots between M8 and M15.

By the same token, the aforementioned "open up recruiting so more foreigners can get stuck in sandanme" idea is just silly - nobody who is bothered by too many foreigners in makuuchi or among Y/O is going to be less bothered just because some more no-name foreigners can be found below juryo. Besides, if anything was proved by the 1998-2001 period when the restrictions were already in place but didn't have any teeth yet (because there were still plenty of open slots), it's that the foreign recruits will come to dominate even if we're just talking about 5-10 new deshi per year. Letting in even more is going to make the domination even more pronounced, not less. (Not that it's really a surprise, what with "rest of the world" having 50 times more people among whom to find prospects than Japan does. Even the higher rate of domestic recruiting isn't going to make up for that.)

Edited November 6, 2012 by Asashosakari

[Randomitsuki 2,768]

Kaisei, Gagamaru and Tochinoshin are all 25, Kyokushuho is 24. We're probably not going to have five foreign ozeki and yokozuna in, say, 2016, but I don't really see a significant change in the overall numbers coming, 1/3 of makuuchi seems easily maintainable to me.

Another crucial thing about potential foreigner dominance is the actual quality of foreign recruits (doh!).

For quite some time, there has been a pretty constant rate of foreign recruits who made it to Makuuchi. However, in the last few years, the relative percentage of top foreigners has increased considerably.

1998-2000: 6/16 (38%)

2001-2003: 13/37 (35%)

2004-2006: 6/18 (33%)

2007-2009: 7/9 (78%)

2010-2012: 3/6 (50%)

If the rate stays as high as in the last two timeframes, i.e. if more than half of foreigners will make it to Makuuchi, I fear that Asashosakari's prediction (1/3 gaijin in Makuuchi) will hold.

[勝 Katsu 20]

O.K., I'll throw in my wild ideas anyway.

I agree with the "foreigners league" thing in part, but there's something that smells like "Coloreds to the back of the bus" about it.

I think there should be weight classed divisions. (Like boxing) and Bashos should include at least 3 of these in normal schedules.

(Also, we all know how silly thin people look in Mawashis, so the Mawashi should be redesigned for lighter divisions)

As I mentioned before, there should be more showmanship at the bashos, a little more build up...hype...if you will, house lights go down and spotlight flashes while playing rock music on as the yokozuna walks into the dohyo.

(I know the more traditional members would prefer the quiet and straightforwardness of Ozumo, but you're dealing with now 2 generations of young people who have the internet and video games ,1 with iphones (and as many shiny, loud things as they want...whenever they want))

The kyokai should adapt to modern culture the way Shinto shrines are doing (such as accepting Ema that feature anime characters) or showing t.v. characters at shrines or like the Buddhist temple in SE Asia did and actually use superheroes painted on the walls of the temple to represent various Buddhist ideals

The banner ads previous to the final matches are a visual trainwreck. Ads should be kept on t.v. It completely takes away from the feeling that something important is about to happen.

The Kyokai should make sure that there are more representations on adult and kids t.v. of sumo.

The rikishis "public behavior" should not be monitored or admonished with quite so serious a tone. They should be permitted to behave in the ostentatious, wild manner of rock stars. (This is because "we all just want to be big rock stars....." and will make Ozumo seem desirous and sexy)

I have more...but I have to go to work. ;)

[Asashosakari 18,786]

For quite some time, there has been a pretty constant rate of foreign recruits who made it to Makuuchi. However, in the last few years, the relative percentage of top foreigners has increased considerably.

It helps that there's a more established international amateur circuit now, I think. Something like the existence of the World Junior Championship probably cuts down a lot on the potential uncertainty. Just recall the way many of the Mongolian deshi were picked 10 or 12 years ago - open tryouts with a few dozen athletic-looking kids. That's nearly unthinkable now. (Heck, Kakuryu was a basketball-playing kid who wrote a letter to the Kyokai!)

Even with fewer restrictions on recruiting, I don't think we'd get back towards 33%. Unless all restrictions were removed, perhaps - but if that actually led to a non-domestic recruiting boom, the absolute number of foreigner successes would overwhelm everything we've seen so far even if the percentage dropped, and IMO that's a complete non-starter for the Kyokai.

Edited November 6, 2012 by Asashosakari

[Treblemaker 254]

I think if you remove the ban now, you're opening up a Pandora's Box. If the Native followers of Sumo want a more Native flavour, then there should be more restrictions. But that would lead to a larger Pandora's Box...

Yeah, I don't see any changes happening anytime soon.

[勝 Katsu 20]

http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2012-11-06/news/34946427_1_sumo-sport-indian-wrestlers

For some reason, I'm offended by this article.