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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks - Haru 2012

27 posts in this topic

(I miss topic subtitles...)

Welcome once again to the game that shamelessly objectifies successful rikishi! Everybody with a current streak of at least 5 kachikoshi (or even just 4 if they're sekitori) is who we're concerned with here at LKS headquarters - and as a player you're cordially invited to predict if they'll manage to have another successful performance this basho. Here's our 17-strong lineup for Haru 2012:

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1. Y

2. Y

3. N

4. N

5. N

6. N

7. N

8. Y

9. Y

10. N

11. N

12. Y

13. Y

14. N

15. Y

16. Y

17. N

And a total of 20 KK to make a really interesting game in May.

Edited by Asojima

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One of my favourite games, despite being useless at it!

Here goes:

1. Hakuho Y

2. Baruto Y

3. Kotoshogiku N

4. Myogiryu MK

5. Kisenosato N

6. Chiyonokuni MK

7. Harumafuji Y

8. Kakuryu N

9. Kotoyuki KK

10. Tenkaiho MK

11. Tokushinho MK

12. Tatsu MK

13. Haruhikari MK

14. Sadanofuji KK

15. Ikioi KK

16. Chiyotairyu KK

17. Kitaharima MK

TB: 19

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.1. Hakuho. . . y

.2. Baruto. . . y

.3. Kotoshogiku y

.4. Myogiryu. . MK

.5. Kisenosato. y

.6. Chiyonokuni KK

.7. Harumafuji. y

.8. Kakuryu . . y

.9. Kotoyuki. . MK

10. Tenkaiho. . MK

11. Tokushinho. MK

12. Tatsu . . . MK

13. Haruhikari. KK

14. Sadanofuji. MK

15. Ikioi . . . KK

16. Chiyotairyu MK

17. Kitaharima. MK

TB: 18

Profomisakari

Edited by Profomisakari

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1. Y

2. Y

3. N

4. N

5. N

6. Y

7. Y

8. Y

9. Y

10. Y

11. Y

12. N

13. N

14. N

15. Y

16. Y

17. N

Tb 19

Edited by Mmikasazuma

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1. Yes

2. Yes

3. No

4. No

5. Yes

6. No

7. No

8. No

9. Yes

10. Yes

11. No

12. Yes

13. Yes

14. No

15. Yes

16. Yes

17. No

Tiebreaker 20

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My picks are:

1. Hakuho 30 [13-2] Yes

2. Baruto 15 [12-3] Yes

3. Kotoshogiku 8 [11-4] No

4. Myogiryu 8 MK

5. Kisenosato 7 [11-4] Yes

6. Chiyonokuni 7 MK

7. Harumafuji 6 [11-4] No

8. Kakuryu 6 [11-4] Yes

9. Kotoyuki 6 KK

10. Tenkaiho 5 KK

11. Tokushinho 5 MK

12. Tatsu 5 KK

13. Haruhikari 5 MK

14. Sadanofuji 4 MK

15. Ikioi 4 MK

16. Chiyotairyu 4 KK

17. Kitaharima 4 MK

Tie-breaker: 20

Edited by Achiyama

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1. Hakuho 30 [13-2] Y

2. Baruto 15 [12-3] Y

3. Kotoshogiku 8 [11-4] N

4. Myogiryu 8 N

5. Kisenosato 7 [11-4] N

6. Chiyonokuni 7 N

7. Harumafuji 6 [11-4] N

8. Kakuryu 6 [11-4] Y

9. Kotoyuki 6 Y

10. Tenkaiho 5 N

11. Tokushinho 5 Y

12. Tatsu 5 Y

13. Haruhikari 5 N

14. Sadanofuji 4 N

15. Ikioi 4 Y

16. Chiyotairyu 4 Y

17. Kitaharima 4 N

tb - 16

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1. Hakuho Y [13-2]

2. Baruto N [12-3]

3. Kotoshogiku Y [11-4]

4. Myogiryu mk

5. Kisenosato N [11-4]

6. Chiyonokuni mk

7. Harumafuji N [11-4]

8. Kakuryu N [11-4]

9. Kotoyuki KK

10. Tenkaiho KK

11. Tokushinho KK

12. Tatsu KK

13. Haruhikari mk

14. Sadanofuji mk

15. Ikioi KK

16. Chiyotairyu KK

17. Kitaharima mk

TB 22 (to offer us a record field)

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Ack, always forgot about my own game and deadline...

+ Hakuho

+ Baruto

- Kotoshogiku

- Myogiryu

- Kisenosato

- Chiyonokuni

- Harumafuji

+ Kakuryu

- Kotoyuki

- Tenkaiho

- Tokushinho

- Tatsu

- Haruhikari

- Sadanofuji

+ Ikioi

+ Chiyotairyu

- Kitaharima

TB 17

Thanks for joining, everyone! :-)

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Here are the selection stats for Haru 2012:

Player

Haku

Baru

Giku

Myo

Kise

Ch'kuni

Haru

Kaku

Koto

Ten

Toku

Tatsu

Haru

Sada

Ikioi

Ch'tai

Kita

TB

Cons

Asojima

+

+

-

-

-

-

-

+

+

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

20

1.22

Fay

+

-

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

-

-

20

2.20

Pandaazuma

+

+

-

-

-

-

+

-

+

-

-

-

-

+

+

+

-

19

1.63

Profomisakari

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

-

+

-

+

-

-

18

2.12

Holleshoryu

+

+

-

+

-

+

-

+

-

-

-

+

-

+

+

+

-

16

1.78

Mmikasazuma

+

+

-

-

-

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

+

+

-

19

1.68

ryafuji

+

+

-

-

-

-

-

+

-

+

-

-

-

-

+

+

+

21

1.63

kuroimori

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

20

1.63

Achiyama

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

+

+

+

-

+

-

-

-

+

-

20

1.63

Jejima

+

+

-

-

-

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

-

+

+

-

16

1.29

Vikanohara

+

-

+

-

-

-

-

-

+

+

+

+

-

-

+

+

-

22

1.87

Asashosakari

+

+

-

-

-

-

-

+

-

-

-

-

-

-

+

+

-

17

1.29

[/td]

12:0

10:2

3:9

2:10

3:9

3:9

4:8

9:3

8:4

5:7

3:9

7:5

4:8

3:9

11:1

10:2

1:11

Edited by Asashosakari

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Nakabi:

Nothing of particular importance has happened yet, but we do have the first few qualifiers for next basho (and thus TB points) already: Hakuho has started 8-0 to easily maintain his spot, while youngster sensation Sasanoyama already improved to 4-0 yesterday for his 5th straight KK since turning pro.

At the other end of the spectrum last basho's sandanme yusho playoff contender Kenho won't be joining the ballot as he is 0-4 at the bottom of makushita as of today. Also winless and out of our future consideration is veteran Maegunzan, so all in all the tie-breaker range now stands at 2-33.

Tomorrow's action may yield the first points with Chiyotairyu knocking on the door to kachikoshi at 7-1 and young Tatsu trying to avoid falling to 1-4.

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Day 9:

The first result is in, and unfortunately it's a setback for talented Tatsu who finds himself makekoshi now. Just under half of us predicted that.

Some more KK/MK decisions without points attached have come in: Yusho-chasing Baruto and Kakuryu collected win #8, while lower-rankers Musashiumi and Chiyoraizan have dropped to 1-4 to end their KK streaks at four basho. The very early standings:

Day 9:

1/17 Decisions, TB 4-30

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Asashosakari

1

17

2

Profomisakari

1

18

3

Mmikasazuma

1

19

3

Pandaazuma

1

19

5

ryafuji

1

21

6

Holleshoryu

0

16

7

Achiyama

0

20

7

Asojima

0

20

7

Fay

0

20

7

kuroimori

0

20

11

Vikanohara

0

22

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Day 10:

LKS is starting to go into overdrive now and with so many rikishi in the game this time it's probably going to be a frantic week throughout. For the start of the week it's the Kokonoe pair of Chiyonokuni (MK in his injury return) and Chiyotairyu (KK to secure his makuuchi debut) who have decided their fates. Eight players got both picks correct, three scored with one of them, and only Profomisakari failed to improve his position at all.

In additions to those two rikishi another five affected the tie-breaker with today's results. Harumafuji is the latest ozeki to secure an early KK, while in the backup ranks it was Sakumayama, Wakamisho and collegiate deshi Watanabe who confirmed their upwards trajectories. The day's only makekoshi was brought in by 34-year-old veteran Ogifuji in his first makushita basho in five years.

The updated and nicely symmetrical standings (now with all 12 players, oops):

Day 10:

3/17 Decisions, TB 9-28

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Asashosakari

3

17

2

Pandaazuma

3

19

3

ryafuji

3

21

4

Jejima

2

16

5

Mmikasazuma

2

19

6

Achiyama

2

20

6

Asojima

2

20

6

kuroimori

2

20

9

Vikanohara

2

22

10

Holleshoryu

1

16

11

Profomisakari

1

18

12

Fay

1

20

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Day 11:

Another two majority votes have been confirmed: Myogiryu's first foray into the meatgrinder has ended in the expected makekoshi (although with more feisty sumo than many others in their first attempts), and Kisenosato collected loss #5 today which means he can no longer reach his 11-4 target. 7 doubly-correct predictions this time, with the other 5 players picking up one point each.

More action was seen in the backup ranks again, where Kotokawazu, Aratoshi and Okoryu dropped to 2-4, while nondescript collegiate entrant Irie secured his makushita debut and 5th KK from debut with a win today. We also have our first special ballot entrant (not counting for the tie-breaker) with Asahisho whose 8-3 means a streak of 4 KK in sekitori territory.

All three leading players were among those who scored twice today. The new standings:

Day 11:

5/17 Decisions, TB 10-24

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Asashosakari

5

17

2

Pandaazuma

5

19

3

ryafuji

5

21

4

Jejima

4

16

5

Mmikasazuma

4

19

6

Asojima

4

20

7

Vikanohara

4

22

8

Achiyama

3

20

8

kuroimori

3

20

10

Holleshoryu

2

16

11

Profomisakari

2

18

12

Fay

2

20

Our collective tie-breaker expectations may have been too high after all as we currently seem headed for about 17 or 18 as the final score.

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Day 12:

Kakuryu is not only co-leading the yusho race, he has also now become the first rikishi to achieve his LKS special target with his 11th win. Most of us expected that to happen. The other two decisions of the day were also majority predictions, namely makekoshi for Sadanofuji and Kitaharima. In addition Kotoshogiku has reached KK to boost the tie-breaker score, but he'll still have to go 3-0 to reach his target.

Half of the dozen players got all three of today's decisions correct, the rest have to contend themselves with two points - except Pandaazuma who only got Kitaharima right. (Don't doubt the Kak.) That means a decisive exit from the yusho race for him, and as fellow co-leader ryafuji was also just in the two-pointer group we have our first sole leader of the basho now:

Day 12:

8/17 Decisions, TB 11-22

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Asashosakari

8

17

2

Jejima

7

16

3

Mmikasazuma

7

19

4

Asojima

7

20

5

ryafuji

7

21

6

Pandaazuma

6

19

7

Achiyama

6

20

8

Vikanohara

6

22

9

Profomisakari

5

18

10

kuroimori

5

20

11

Holleshoryu

4

16

12

Fay

4

20

Still more than half the game to go though.

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Day 13:

Two more decisions today, courtesy of Kotoshogiku's 5th loss that served to put a fail mark next to his 11-4 target, and Ikioi's MK clincher. While Shogi's not-so-hot basho hasn't come as a big surprise to us, Ikioi's subpar performance was accurately predicted only by Achiyama.

In tie-breaker news we added one point in the plus column via Kisenosato's kachikoshi, while a trio of backup squadders (Saishin, Daishoiwa, Asanotosa) all fell to 3-4 today.

The updated standings, still with a sole leader but no longer exhibiting perfection:

Day 13:

10/17 Decisions, TB 12-18

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Asashosakari

9

17

2

Jejima

8

16

3

Achiyama

8

20

3

Asojima

8

20

3

Mmikasazuma

8

19

3

ryafuji

8

21

7

Pandaazuma

7

19

8

kuroimori

6

20

8

Vikanohara

6

22

10

Holleshoryu

5

16

11

Profomisakari

5

18

12

Fay

4

20

It rapidly looks as though we've not only managed to put the average tie-breaker prediction too high, but actually all of them. The 6 remaining rikishi include three 3-3's and three 6-7's, so chances are we might only see 3 or even fewer kachikoshi out of them. The lowest TB predictions of 16 would require 4 KK.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 14:

On the penultimate day of the basho more than half the remaining LKS decisions were settled - last and definitely not least of the day was Baruto's 4th loss, which not only killed all hopes he might have had of carrying over his tsunatori to Natsu, but also caused him to miss his 12-3 target for good. Only Vikanohara and Fay predicted that correctly, but alas, they're deeply buried in the standings. In more regular news both Tenkaiho and Kotoyuki fell to 6-8, for a pretty good mix of scores (3x both correct, 4x only Yuki, 1x only Xkaiho, 4x neither). And earlier on, down in makushita the second of our pair of toriteki, Haruhikari, scored the last-minute kachikoshi, which was good news for 4 players.

In the tie-breaker column the last two remaining rikishi Tamadaiki and prospect Hakuyozan also achieved a 4-3 KK today. All that has resulted in the following standings:

Day 14:

14/17 Decisions, TB 15-16

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Asashosakari

11

17

2

Asojima

10

20

3

Jejima

9

16

4

ryafuji

9

21

5

Achiyama

8

20

5

Mmikasazuma

8

19

5

Pandaazuma

8

19

5

Profomisakari

8

18

9

Holleshoryu

7

16

10

Fay

7

20

10

kuroimori

7

20

10

Vikanohara

7

22

Still to be settled are the scores for Hakuho and Harumafuji (could reach their targets with a win), and for Tokushinho who's bringing his KK/MK decision to senshuraku for the second basho running. Incidentally, altogether it's the 7th basho in a row that he comes into his final bout with the decision on the line - final results were a 3-4, followed by four 4-3's and last basho's 8-7.

With three remaining decisions there could be some suspense in the yusho race, however:

- Hakuho was picked unanimously,

- Asojima shares both other picks with the leader,

- Jejima only has one pick different,

- ryafuji also shares both other picks.

Mmikasazuma is the only one to have picked both differently, but is three points off the lead. In other words, congrats to Asashosakari. :-)

The jun-yusho decision is still up. With wins by Harumafuji and Tokushinho it's Jejima (by tie-breaker over Asojima and Mmikasazuma level on points), with Harumafuji only it's Asojima, with Tokushinho only it's again Jejima by tie-breaker (over Asojima), with losses by both it's Asojima again. In other words, the decision turns on Tokushinho's quest for KK. Holleshoryu was the only other player to pick 16 for the tie-breaker so a 'shinho win would give an extra win for the banzuke to him along with Jejima.

In the final news of the day we collected our second special entrant to the ballot for May as Chiyootori achieved his 4th straight KK.

The win-loss adjustments for the banzuke will likely be -1 if Harumafuji and Tokushinho win, -2 in the other three scenarios. (This is with Hakuho losing - if he wins and scores a point for everyone, the adjustments go to -2 and -3, of course.)

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Well done on winning your own game!

I thought I was doing OK this time...but obviously not!

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Senshuraku:

Both target-chasing high rankers finished their basho with a win (well, Hakuho finished it with two...), while Tokushinho fell at the final hurdle this time, giving us these final standings:

Day 15:

17/17 Decisions, TB 15

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Asashosakari

13

17

2

Asojima

12

20

3

Pandaazuma

11

19

3

Profomisakari

11

18

3

ryafuji

11

21

6

Achiyama

10

20

6

Fay

10

20

6

Jejima

10

16

6

Mmikasazuma

10

19

10

Holleshoryu

9

16

10

kuroimori

9

20

12

Vikanohara

8

22

Sadly for Jejima, Tokushinho's loss not only caused him to miss out on the jun-yusho but sent him straight to the lower half of the standings. I don't think it'll come as a surprise that 11+ points will be a kachikoshi, 10 and under a makekoshi. Congrats to perennial contender Asojima on the runner-up performance!

Outside the Hakuho/ozeki/Kakuryu squad we've been handed a massive wipeout with just 2 KK rikishi (out of 11) on the ballot, and 7 (out of 18) on the pretenders list - which itself splits into a depressing 1/10 among the veterans (Tamadaiki's the successful one) and a more promising 6/8 among the rookies (only last basho's sandanme 7-0'ers Kotokawazu and Kenho failed here). With the all-around miss on the TB score no bonus wins will be handed out for the banzuke.

In addition to our 15 official picks as represented by the tie-breaker score we'll be having the aforementioned two special ballot entries Asahisho and Chiyootori - possibly to be joined by Takanoiwa as #18 if the banzuke makers allow him to sneak a lucky juryo promotion. I'll use those circumstances as a welcome excuse to delay the posting of the official new ballot, new banzuke etc. until Wednesday.

Many thanks as always for sticking with this little game! (Bye, bye...)

Edited by Asashosakari

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Sadly for Jejima, Tokushinho's loss not only caused him to miss out on the jun-yusho but sent him straight to the lower half of the standings.

Do the tie-breaker rules only count for deciding the yusho? Might it be worth considering for all results? ;-) Either way, I end up in 6th place, which I believe is (just) in the upper half of the standings, as there are 12 players.

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Do the tie-breaker rules only count for deciding the yusho?

I'm a firm believer in using tie-breakers only for determining prize winners, so no. :-)

Either way, I end up in 6th place, which I believe is (just) in the upper half of the standings, as there are 12 players.

Feel free to consider yourself 6th-placed...it's going to be a makekoshi anyway though.

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