Haru banzuke discussion.

[Bealzbob 0]

It will be interesting (for me anyway) to see how they decide to fill the final place in makuuchi for Haru.

With 6 clear demotions (and an arguable 7th) from makuuchi

Nionoumi, Kaisei, Kyokushuho, Sagatsukasa, Tosayutaka & Yoshiazuma (Takanoyama being the arguable).

And only 5 clear promotions

Tamawashi, Hochiyama, Takarafuji, Wakanosato & Ikioi.

The discussion is whether you do one of the following to fill the gap

1. Promote juryo debutant & yusho winner Chiyotairyu from J13w with a 13-2Y. Something that has never been done with that rank/record combo*.

2. Promote Shotenro from J5e with an 8-7. Something that hasn't happened since 1947 rendering it irrelevant.

3. Promote Kotoyuki from J7w with a 9-6. Something that hasn't happened since 1938. See above.

4. Keep Tosayutaka (M12w 4-11). Last happened in 1959.

5. Keep Sagatsukasa (M14w 5-10). Last happened in 1956.

* Sagatsukasa was promoted from J12e with a 13-2Y in Natsu '10 but that's the only instance that comes close.

The pausity of candidates also saves Takanoyama IMO.

How do you think the gap will be filled? FWIW I've gone for option 1. Promoting the former tsukedashi through juryo in one basho.

[Pippooshu 1]

Only obvious thing is this:

Sekiwake: kakuryu - aminishiki

Komusubi: tochinowaka - myogiryu

[yorikiried by fate 1,989]

Only obvious thing is this:

Sekiwake: kakuryu - aminishiki

Komusubi: tochinowaka - myogiryu

I strongly doubt that this might be obvious.

[Pippooshu 1]

All the M1 (except Aminishiki) 2,3 and one M4 are Make-Koshi. It's the same for the sekiwake Toyonoshima and the couple of komusubi.

So...Aminishiki, M1 with 9-6 will be sekiwake; one M4, Tochinowaka (8-7) can be komusubi and the same for M5 Myogiryu (9-6). 9-6 for the M6 Yoshikaze and Kyokutenho also but they are back, maybe they will be M1...not more.

...What do you strongly think about different high Banzuke?

[Flohru 176]

All the M1 (except Aminishiki) 2,3 and one M4 are Make-Koshi. It's the same for the sekiwake Toyonoshima and the couple of komusubi.

So...Aminishiki, M1 with 9-6 will be sekiwake; one M4, Tochinowaka (8-7) can be komusubi and the same for M5 Myogiryu (9-6). 9-6 for the M6 Yoshikaze and Kyokutenho also but they are back, maybe they will be M1...not more.

...What do you strongly think about different high Banzuke?

Look at M8w and you will see the guy who is going to take away the second komusubi slot from Tochinowaka. It will be interesting to see how they place Tochinowaka in comparison to the two M6 9-6s - usually he should be sandwiched by them but somehow I can't see that happen.

[Tikozan 4]

I see a chance for Chiyotairyu's promotion.

[DawidPoland 1]

Do you think that despite the low weight Takanoyama may one day thanks to the speed and cleverness sanyaku?

[Jaak 7]

So, how to guess the komusubis and M1-M2?

There is a fair bunch of claimants for these spots:

M4w 8:7

M5e 9:6

M6e 9:6

M6w 9:6

M8w 11:4

M10w 12:3

Even not counting the M6w, there are 5 promotion candidates for just 2 komusubi slots.

Precisely who?

[Bealzbob 0]

Only obvious thing is this:

Sekiwake: kakuryu - aminishiki

Komusubi: tochinowaka - myogiryu

I actually think both of your komusubi slots are wrong. See you at Guess the Banzuke !! :)

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Only obvious thing is this:

Sekiwake: kakuryu - aminishiki

Komusubi: tochinowaka - myogiryu

As obvious as M7w 10-5 Takekaze taking the komusubi slot instead of M9w 12-3 Wakakoyu last time? (Holiday feeling...)

[EizoShita 0]

S W Aminishiki M1W(9-6)

K E Myogiryu M5E(9-6)

K W Tochiozan M8W(11-4)

M1 E Gagamaru M10W(12-3)

M1 W Yoshikaze M6E(9-6)

M2 E Toyonoshima SW(5-10)

M2 W Tochinowaka M4W(8-7)

M3 E Tokitenku M10E(11-4)

M3 W Kyokutenho M6W(9-6)

------------------------------------

There is absolutely no reason to prefere W M4 Tochinowaka to others. Position W-4M was completely outside jo'i. Just compare schedule with E-4M, which schedule was almost as hard as jo'is. As a matter of fact Homashos 7-8 result is much more respectable, than Tochinowakas 8-7.

[Jaak 7]

S W Aminishiki M1W(9-6)

K E Myogiryu M5E(9-6)

K W Tochiozan M8W(11-4)

M1 E Gagamaru M10W(12-3)

M1 W Yoshikaze M6E(9-6)

M2 E Toyonoshima SW(5-10)

M2 W Tochinowaka M4W(8-7)

M3 E Tokitenku M10E(11-4)

M3 W Kyokutenho M6W(9-6)

------------------------------------

There is absolutely no reason to prefere W M4 Tochinowaka to others. Position W-4M was completely outside jo'i. Just compare schedule with E-4M, which schedule was almost as hard as jo'is. As a matter of fact Homashos 7-8 result is much more respectable, than Tochinowakas 8-7.

Why squeeze 3 spots between Yoshikaze and Kyokutenho? They are the same row, whereas Myogiryu and Yoshikaze are 2 positions away. If 5 people need to fit between them, it could be 3 between Myogiryu and Yoshikaze, then 2 between Yoshikaze and Kyokutenho...

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Position W-4M was completely outside jo'i. Just compare schedule with E-4M, which schedule was almost as hard as jo'is. As a matter of fact Homashos 7-8 result is much more respectable, than Tochinowakas 8-7.

Nevertheless, Tochinowaka's schedule was quite a bit tougher than that of the other contenders:

Homa  Twaka Myogi Yoshi Tenho Ozan  Gaga
M4e   M4w   M5e   M6e   M6w   M8w   M10w
7-8   8-7   9-6   9-6   9-6   11-4  12-3
----  ----  ----  ----  ----  ----  ----
O1w   O3w   S1e   M4e   M4e   M5e   M5w
O2e   M1e   M3e   M4w   M4w   M5w   M6e
O2w   M1w   M3w   M5e   M5e   M6e   M7e
O3w   M2e   M4e   M5w   M5w   M6w   M7w
M1e   M2w   M4w   M6w   M6e   M7e   M8w
M1w   M3e   M6e   M7e   M7e   M7w   M9e
M3e   M3w   M6w   M7w   M7w   M8e   M9w
M3w   M4e   M7e   M8e   M8e   M9w   M10e
M4e   M5e   M7w   M8w   M8w   M10w  M11e
M5e   M5w   M8e   M9e   M9e   M11w  M12e
M5w   M6e   M8w   M10w  M9w   M12w  M12w
M6e   M6w   M9e   M13e  M10e  M13e  M13e
M6w   M7w   M9w   M13w  M11e  M13w  M14e
M7w   M8e   M10e  M14e  M13w  M15e  M14w
M12w  M14e  M12e  M15e  M14e  M15w  M16e

[EizoShita 0]

S W Aminishiki M1W(9-6)

K E Myogiryu M5E(9-6)

K W Tochiozan M8W(11-4)

M1 E Gagamaru M10W(12-3)

M1 W Yoshikaze M6E(9-6)

M2 E Toyonoshima SW(5-10)

M2 W Tochinowaka M4W(8-7)

M3 E Tokitenku M10E(11-4)

M3 W Kyokutenho M6W(9-6)

------------------------------------

There is absolutely no reason to prefere W M4 Tochinowaka to others. Position W-4M was completely outside jo'i. Just compare schedule with E-4M, which schedule was almost as hard as jo'is. As a matter of fact Homashos 7-8 result is much more respectable, than Tochinowakas 8-7.

Why squeeze 3 spots between Yoshikaze and Kyokutenho? They are the same row, whereas Myogiryu and Yoshikaze are 2 positions away. If 5 people need to fit between them, it could be 3 between Myogiryu and Yoshikaze, then 2 between Yoshikaze and Kyokutenho...

Because by formula 1 win equals almost (in fact a little bit less) 2 lines. Therefore 1) M6E(9-6)=M10E(11-4) with little advantage to M6; M4W(8-7)=M6(9-6) with little advantage to M4W; E has advantage in front of W (for example difference between M7E and M7W is 1 position, exactly same as difference between M7W and M8E, in spite of different line number). Of course it didn't explain, why I put Toyonoshima at M2E, but always when somebody sucked in sanyaku, banzukemakers were merciful for him, so i had to put him higher than formula showed.

[yorikiried by fate 1,989]

Gagamaru K Tochiozan

Myogiryu M1 Tokitenku

Yoshikaze M2 Kyokutenho

[ScreechingOwl 343]

Gagamaru K Tochiozan

Myogiryu M1 Tokitenku

Yoshikaze M2 Kyokutenho

I think it's clear that Aminishiki returns to Sekiwake -- otherwise not entirely clear at all. In general the banzuke makers don't seem as impressed with the quality of opposition as with the number of wins.

As for Takanoyama, I think he'll be kept in the makuuchi division because he's on the border and a crowd favorite. However, at his current weight, or anywhere near it, he'll never make sanyaku, and in fact will be fortunate to go kachi koshi, and will likely seesaw between makuuchi and juryo, although I could see him eeking out an 8-7 in the top division sometime.

[ScreechingOwl 343]

Gagamaru K Tochiozan

Myogiryu M1 Tokitenku

Yoshikaze M2 Kyokutenho

I think it's clear that Aminishiki returns to Sekiwake -- otherwise not entirely clear at all. In general the banzuke makers don't seem as impressed with the quality of opposition as with the number of wins.

As for Takanoyama, I think he'll be kept in the makuuchi division because he's on the border and a crowd favorite. However, at his current weight, or anywhere near it, he'll never make sanyaku, and in fact will be fortunate to go kachi koshi. I see him seesawing between makuuchi and juryo, although I can envision him eeking out an 8-7 in the top division sometime.

[ronnie 221]

Gagamaru K Tochiozan

That's the way I've got them.

[Bealzbob 0]

I've got them the other way around by virtue of Tochiozan having a higher starting rank.

[Jaak 7]

Of course it didn't explain, why I put Toyonoshima at M2E, but always when somebody sucked in sanyaku, banzukemakers were merciful for him, so i had to put him higher than formula showed.

Precedents for 5:10 S1w:

Recent ones - after 2010.07 Kotoshogiku M3e

after 2010.05 Aminishiki M2w

after 2009.03 Kisenosato M4e

after 2007.01 Miyabiyama M3e

Longer term - 28 cases since 1956

3x M1w - last after 1984.11 Konishiki

5x M2e - last after 1998.11 Takatoriki

4x M2w

9x M3e

Thus the median is M3e. Any banzuke reasons to deviate upwards this time? M1-M2 can easily be filled with deserving promotees.

[Bealzbob 0]

I think you're both right :) In this instance there are plenty of deserving rikishi to fill the M1-M2 slots, but EizoShita is also right that make-koshi sanyaku rikishi regularly fall less than the usual win-loss formula for regular maegashira rikishi suggests.

[yorikiried by fate 1,989]

As always when I'm leaning out of the window in Banzuke discussions, I will end up total fool. It is my impression, though, that the current win-loss situation does not allow [changed from: allows for] many "bonus ranks" for 8-7 rikishi, for instance. Also: Of course Toyonoshima won't fall down very deeply, but the 2-4 win guys up there also cannot hope for some soft demotion, because the higher Maegashira ranks seem to be rather crowded.

And Edith wanted to add: Concerning the Gagamaru/Tochiozan order, I would generally agree, but they were placed against each other in battle for the kanto-sho, when Gaga won. But probably it doesn't mean anything for the banzuke makers (wouldn't surpris me the least).

Edit 2: major glitch

Edited January 24, 2012 by yorikiried by fate

[EizoShita 0]

Of course it didn't explain, why I put Toyonoshima at M2E, but always when somebody sucked in sanyaku, banzukemakers were merciful for him, so i had to put him higher than formula showed.

Precedents for 5:10 S1w:

Recent ones - after 2010.07 Kotoshogiku M3e

after 2010.05 Aminishiki M2w

after 2009.03 Kisenosato M4e

after 2007.01 Miyabiyama M3e

Longer term - 28 cases since 1956

3x M1w - last after 1984.11 Konishiki

5x M2e - last after 1998.11 Takatoriki

4x M2w

9x M3e

Thus the median is M3e. Any banzuke reasons to deviate upwards this time? M1-M2 can easily be filled with deserving promotees.

You considers only statistics and forgets some facts. Current situation may be not unique, but it is rare. 7 rikishis are above others - MK would be very surprising result, then comes Toyonoshima (underachiever this basho) - expected results are mostly KK with some occasional MK-s, then all others - their expected results are MK-s, often double-digit, and sometimes occasionally minimal KK.

I spoke of course about results in jo'i positions.

And what happened now ? Exactly one KK from jo'i positions (below S1E) - Aminishiki. In lower sanyaku will be 2-3 free places for a while, maybe to the end of year. Situation was quite different before 2 new Japanese got the title of ozeki.

Now only Aminishikis result is by formula worth of sanyaku position. By formula Gaga and Ozan should be on M1, Myogiryu on M2 and all others M3 or lower. So putting Toy to M2 makes sense to me.

[EizoShita 0]

S W Aminishiki M1W(9-6)-----------M(-2)W

K E Myogiryu M5E(9-6)------------------M2E

K W Tochiozan M8W(11-4)-----------M1W

M1 E Gagamaru M10W(12-3)--------M1W

M1 W Yoshikaze M6E(9-6)-----------M3E

M2 E Toyonoshima SW(5-10)---------M4W

M2 W Tochinowaka M4W(8-7)------M3W

M3 E Tokitenku M10E(11-4)-----------M3E

M3 W Kyokutenho M6W(9-6)--------M3W

--------------------------------------------------

Added calculated (by formula) places to the end of each line.

M1=maegashira1

M0=komusubi

M(-1)=sekiwake

Edited January 24, 2012 by EizoShita

[Asashosakari 18,786]

You considers only statistics and forgets some facts. ...

By formula ...

Chastising somebody for going by statistics, then trying to do everything by "formula" yourself...odd.