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Asashosakari

Long Kachikoshi Streaks

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Now with streamlined (and abbreviatable) name! Welcome once again to the game in which we focus on those rikishi who've celebrated an uninterrupted series of happy senshuraku parties. After struggling through with just 6 picks in July - who nonetheless proved quite troublesome to predict correctly - we're back into more comfortable territory with 11 streaking rikishi on the ballot. As always you're cordially invited to predict their basho outcomes in very general terms:

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Hakuho - No

Baruto - No

Kosei - MK

Hakunishiki - KK

Kotoshogiku - KK

Takayasu - MK

Takanoyama - KK

Miyogiryu - KK

Sotairyu - KK

Hishofuji - MK

Higoarashi - KK

Tiebreaker - 12

Confidence level: Yucky. This basho is gonna be a weird one!!

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1. Hakuho No

2. Baruto Yes

3. Kosei KK

4. Hakunishiki MK

5. Kotoshogiku KK

6. Takayasu MK

7. Takanoyama MK (Hope I'm wrong)

8. Myogiryu KK

9. Sotairyu KK

10. Hishofuji MK

11. Higoarashi KK

Tie-breaker - 12

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Hakuho Yes

Baruto No

Kosei KK

Hakunishiki KK

Kotoshogiku KK

Takayasu KK

Takanoyama MK

Myogiryu MK

Sotairyu MK

Hishofuji MK

Higoarashi KK

Tiebreaker:13

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Hakuho - Y

Baruto - Y

Kosei - MK

Hakunishiki - MK

Kotoshogiku - KK

Takayasu - MK

Takanoyama - MK

Miyogiryu - KK

Sotairyu - MK

Hishofuji - MK

Higoarashi - KK

Tiebreaker - 10

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Hakuho No

Baruto Yes

Kosei MK

Hakunishiki KK

Kotoshogiku KK

Takayasu MK

Takanoyama KK

Myogiryu KK

Sotairyu MK

Hishofuji MK

Higoarashi MK

Tiebreaker:11

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Hakuho No

Baruto Yes

Kosei MK

Hakunishiki MK

Kotoshogiku KK

Takayasu KK

Takanoyama KK

Myogiryu KK

Sotairyu MK

Hishofuji KK

Higoarashi MK

Tiebreaker:12

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My picks are:

1. Hakuho Yes

2. Baruto Yes

3. Kosei MK

4. Hakunishiki MK

5. Kotoshogiku KK

6. Takayasu MK

7. Takanoyama MK

8. Myogiryu KK

9. Sotairyu MK

10. Hishofuji MK

11. Higoarashi KK

Tie-breaker 10

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Love this game as I don't have a smegging clue what I am doing.

Here we go:

1. Hakuho: No

2. Baruto: Yes

3. Kosei: MK

4. Hakunishiki: MK

5. Kotoshogiku: KK

6. Takayasu: KK

7. Takanoyama: MK

8. Myogiryu: KK

9. Sotairyu: MK

10. Hishofuji: KK

11. Higoarashi: KK

TB: 11

Edited by Pandaazuma

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Love this game as I don't have a smegging clue what I am doing.

The rules aren't THAT complicated! (Neener, neener...)

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Hakuho N

Baruto Y

Kosei KK

Hakunishiki MK

Kotoshogiku KK

Takayasu KK

Takanoyama MK

Myogiryu KK

Sotairyu KK

Hishofuji KK

Higoarashi MK

TB: 10

Profomisakari

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Hakuho - No

Baruto - Yes

Kosei - MK

Hakunishiki - MK

Kotoshogiku - KK

Takayasu - KK

Takanoyama - KK

Miyogiryu - KK

Sotairyu - KK

Hishofuji - MK

Higoarashi - KK

Tiebreaker - 11

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1. Hakuho Y

2. Baruto N

3. Kosei MK

4. Hakunishiki KK

5. Kotoshogiku KK

6. Takayasu MK

7. Takanoyama MK

8. Myogiryu KK

9. Sotairyu MK

10. Hishofuji KK

11. Higoarashi MK

Tiebreaker 9

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yes - Hakuho

yes - Baruto

KK - Kosei

MK - Hakunishiki

KK - Kotoshogiku

MK - Takayasu

MK - Takanoyama

KK - Miyogiryu

MK - Sotairyu

KK - Hishofuji

MK - Higoarashi

9 as tiebreaker

Now with streamlined (and abbreviatable) name!

Perhaps an idea to also include ones with MK streaks and change the game name into just 'long streaks'. (Danpatsu-shiki...)

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N Hakuho

Y Baruto

MK Kosei

MK Hakunishiki

KK Kotoshogiku

MK Takayasu

KK Takanoyama

KK Myogiryu

MK Sotairyu

MK Hishofuji

MK Higoarashi

TB 10

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Welcome to 13 active players! Here's your selections in summary:

Player

Hakuho

Baruto

Kosei

Hakun

Giku

T'yasu

T'yama

Myogi

Sotai

Hisho

Higo

TB

Asojima

-

-

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

+

12

Jejima

-

+

+

-

+

-

-

+

+

-

+

12

ryafuji

+

-

+

+

+

+

-

-

-

-

+

13

shumitto

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

+

-

-

+

10

kuroimori

-

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

-

-

11

Mmikasazuma

-

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

-

+

-

12

Achiyama

+

+

-

-

+

-

-

+

-

-

+

10

Pandaazuma

-

+

-

-

+

+

-

+

-

+

+

11

Profomisakari

-

+

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

-

10

Holleshoryu

-

+

-

-

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

11

Fay

+

-

-

+

+

-

-

+

-

+

-

9

Vikanohara

+

+

+

-

+

-

-

+

-

+

-

9

Asashosakari

-

+

-

-

+

-

+

+

-

-

-

10

[/td]

5:8

10:3

4:9

4:9

13:0

5:8

5:8

12:1

4:9

5:8

7:6

After his last few basho it's not a big surprise that Kotoshogiku's KK chances have received unanimous endorsement - should he earn promotion to ozeki his next target would be a more appropriate 11-4 record. A bit more surprising if that Myogiryu attracted just one vote of non-confidence, courtesy of ryafuji. The rest of the ballot is pretty much a toss-up, only Baruto's selections also see double-digits on one side. All non-lopsided picks with the exception of Higoarashi favour the MK outcome.

Despite the overall lack of agreement shumitto and Achiyama managed to make completely identical selections right down to the tie-breaker, so a yusho decision between them would come down to shumitto's earlier entry. Their joint selection is also the most average of them all, narrowly ahead of Asashosakari's. The most outrageous ballot by far was submitted by ryafuji. (The Myogiryu pick drives it even further outward, but he'd be #1 even without that one.)

Kosei has apparently exited the basho, but not early enough for his score to be excluded altogether per the rules; that's going to be bad luck for the four players who picked him for KK, should he not rejoin.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 8:

The first scoreable result has come in, but it's only Kosei's near-full absence MK. In other news Hakuho continues to hunt down another record with his 19th straight-win kachikoshi, while Kisenosato posts his very first 8-0 start, giving us our first two ballot members for Kyushu. Also in the backup ranks Kotomisen's recent run of good form came to an end with a quick 0-4.

Full standings after we've seen a few more developments.

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Day 9:

Kotoshogiku and Myogiryu are next to get early kachikoshis, so we have the (near-)unanimous picks out of the way. Consequently most players are still tied for the lead now.

One more backup rikishi won't be joining us in the game for Kyushu as Fujiazuma fell to 1-8 today.

Day 9:

3/11 Decisions, TB 4-16

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Fay

3

9

2

Achiyama

3

10

2

Asashosakari

3

10

2

shumitto

3

10

5

Holleshoryu

3

11

5

kuroimori

3

11

5

Pandaazuma

3

11

8

Asojima

3

12

8

Mmikasazuma

3

12

10

Vikanohara

2

9

11

Profomisakari

2

10

12

Jejima

2

12

13

ryafuji

1

13

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Day 10:

Not much new today - Baruto achieved KK, and lanky backup Mongolian Chiyoshoma fell to MK in his makushita debut, so the tie-breaker range now stands at 5-15. Tomorrow will only see backup ballot decisions at best as well.

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Day 11:

I was wrong - we do have one score that can be assessed today. Kyujo Sotairyu may still be returning to the basho, but he isn't on tomorrow's schedule and will thus drop to 4-4-4 and makekoshi. In backup action Hokutokuni secured his 5th straight KK at the expense of juryo leader Myogiryu, and much further down Kaio's main tsukebito Kainowaka fell to makekoshi and won't be appearing on the ballot. (I'm honestly surprised he's still competing - I fully expected him to call it a day once Kaio went.)

The leaders group has been thinned out, but not by much:

Day 11:

4/11 Decisions, TB 6-13

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Fay

4

9

2

Achiyama

4

10

2

Asashosakari

4

10

2

shumitto

4

10

5

kuroimori

4

11

5

Pandaazuma

4

11

7

Mmikasazuma

4

12

8

Vikanohara

3

9

9

Holleshoryu

3

11

10

Asojima

3

12

11

Profomisakari

2

10

12

Jejima

2

12

13

ryafuji

2

13

Tomorrow could see a deluge of makekoshi outcomes as all 3 remaining sekitori (Takayasu, Takanoyama, Hishofuji) find themselves at 4-7 now, and makushita Hakunishiki at 2-3. All four received majority MK predictions, but not overwhelmingly so, and the standings could be jumbled quite a bit depending on which rikishi do go MK.

Barring some rallies the tie-breaker is likely to finish in single digits, and possibly even below the lowest guess of 9. Argh...

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 12:

One rikishi after another crashed out today: the disaster was started by backupper Azumasho who fell to 2-4 in low sandanme, followed by makushita prospect Hakunishiki, and finally the trio of Hishofuji, Takanoyama and Takayasu all picked up loss #8 as well. With that we're guaranteed at most 8 rikishi on the next ballot - still remaining are Higoarashi (dropped to 3-3 today) and Chiyonokuni on backup (7-5 after 7-3).

Achiyama, Jejima and shumitto picked up the maximum 4 points in today's carnage, leading to these standings:

Day 12:

8/11 Decisions, TB 6-8

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Achiyama

8

10

1

shumitto

8

10

3

Asashosakari

7

10

4

Fay

6

9

4

Jejima

6

12

4

kuroimori

6

11

4

Pandaazuma

6

11

4

Vikanohara

6

9

9

Asojima

5

12

9

Holleshoryu

5

11

9

Mmikasazuma

5

12

12

Profomisakari

4

10

12

ryafuji

4

13

Impressive perfect scores for the two leaders! Still left to decide are the three brackets occupied by Higoarashi, Hakuho (11-1, target 14-1) and Baruto (8-4, target 10-5). Let's see who has a shot at the yusho:

Hakuho(+), Baruto(+), Higoarashi(+): This would mean perfect 11-point selections by Achiyama and shumitto, and I'm dreading that outcome a bit, as we'd be having the earlier-entry decision surmised in the selection summary last week. Shumitto would be the yusho winner here by the barest margin. They would be three points better than anybody else.

Any version where only one of the three rikishi fails to hit their target: Same result. The three-point advantage enjoyed by Achiyama and shumitto in the perfection scenario means that at least one point would remain if a single outcome flips.

Hakuho(+), Baruto(-), Higoarashi(-): Three-way tie at 9 points between Achiyama, shumitto and Fay. Fay would win on the first bracket (Higoarashi's MK).

Hakuho(-), Baruto(+), Higoarashi(-): Outright 10-point victory by Asashosakari.

Hakuho(-), Baruto(-), Higoarashi(+): Another tie between Achiyama and shumitto (this one at 9 points) that would be resolved in shumitto's favour.

Hakuho(-), Baruto(-), Higoarashi(-): Outright 9-point victory by Asashosakari.

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Ozeki stuff, slightly provisional in case I've overlooked something somewhere...

Demoted ryafuji will not be regaining his rank as he's guaranteed to finish 8-7 or worse in any scenario.

Kadoban Fay's situation is easily described: Of the three remaining decisions she needs to be correct on two to save her rank, doesn't matter which ones. Her predictions were for Hakuho to reach 14 wins, for Baruto to fail reaching 10 wins, and for Higoarashi to go makekoshi.

Sekiwake shumitto's record remains under debate between me, myself and I for now.

Edited by Asashosakari

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Day 13:

Hakuho will not be finishing 14-1 for the third straight basho, a development the majority expected. Fay was not among them, so with this loss her yusho chances have evaporated and she'll have an uphill battle in maintaining her ozeki rank now. (At least it was Shogi on the winning end...)

Day 13:

9/11 Decisions, TB 7-8

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Achiyama

8

10

1

Asashosakari

8

10

1

shumitto

8

10

4

Jejima

7

12

4

kuroimori

7

11

4

Pandaazuma

7

11

7

Asojima

6

12

7

Fay

6

9

7

Holleshoryu

6

11

7

Mmikasazuma

6

12

7

Vikanohara

6

9

12

Profomisakari

5

10

13

ryafuji

4

13

The yusho now comes down to shumitto and Asashosakari, and Baruto has just become irrelevant - shumitto will win the yusho if Higoarashi finishes KK tomorrow, Asashosakari if he does not. Baruto could still be the difference between KK and MK for several other players, of course. In case you're wondering if you're one of them: Your points total will also be your number of converted wins this time, the average will finish pretty close to 7.5 points.

In the last backup action of the basho impressive youngster Chiyonokuni secured his second straight juryo KK and 5th overall to become one of three new ballot rikishi for November, joining Kisenosato and Hokutokuni. That's a nice bunch to have. BTW, Hakuho is now barely hanging on to his 14-1 target for Kyushu...should he finish worse than 13-2, his target record will go from 14-1 to 13-2. Seems like just yesterday we were still regularly expecting zenshos from him...

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Day 14:

Higoarashi became the latest toriteki to not extend his KK streak, handing Asashosakari his second career yusho in the process. I'll refrain from congratulating because this talking-about-yourself-in-the-third-person thing is weird enough as is. Achiyama, kuroimori and shumitto (and possibly Fay with a Baruto loss tomorrow) take the jun-yusho. Not quite final standings:

Day 14:

10/11 Decisions, TB 7

Pos

Player

Pts TB

1

Asashosakari

9

10

2

Achiyama

8

10

2

kuroimori

8

11

2

shumitto

8

10

5

Fay

7

9

5

Jejima

7

12

5

Mmikasazuma

7

12

5

Pandaazuma

7

11

5

Vikanohara

7

9

10

Asojima

6

12

10

Holleshoryu

6

11

10

Profomisakari

6

10

13

ryafuji

4

13

Fay still needs that Baruto loss to un-kadoban herself, the other four players at 7 points will be rooting for the Estonian to help them secure their own KK.

Edited by Asashosakari

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