Choshu-yuki banned from Seki games

[Asashosakari 17,635]

And another decision that's potentially unpopular in multiple ways: The upcoming Hatsu 2011 banzukes for Toto, Quad and Oracle will not include Choshu-yuki, and "she" will no longer be allowed to play the games due to extremely strong suspicion of being a sock puppet account of Norizo. I have no idea if that was always the case (I suspect it wasn't), but at least for the years 2009 and 2010 both observational evidence as well as statistical analysis leave little room for a different conclusion.

I would have preferred to handle this "behind the scenes", but not only are all email addresses Norizo has ever used in conjunction with sumo gaming dead - this includes the registration addresses currently on file for Toto and several other games, as well as the return address for his own game Norizo Cup - also both the BBS and the personal website linked on Norizo Cup have been inactive for a while, leaving no other way than to go public. In any case, evidence includes but is not limited to:

- extreme similarity between the entries for both N and C-Y. Pair-wise player comparisons carried out on all Quad and Oracle selections of the last two years indicate a level of similarity (compared to all other possible player pairings) that is simply unexplainable by anything other than strong cooperation or outright double-playing. While the former may be a borderline issue, the latter clearly isn't, and additional factors strongly indicate that it's not merely a case of cooperation.

- C-Y's selections across multiple games are wildly inconsistent. Primarily, this goes for Toto and Quad - C-Y's daily Quad selections will typically include at least one rikishi who is picked as a loser in the corresponding Toto entry. More importantly though, those inconsistent rikishi picks always become consistent if C-Y's Quad entry is matched with Norizo's Toto entry, to the point that it's impossible to explain as merely a series of coincidences.

One could charitably make the following interpretation: While Norizo plays both accounts in Quad and Oracle, C-Y is a different player indeed in Toto (where, as is commonly known, the C-Y picks are extremely unusual). This is superficially supported by the existence of other games in which the N and C-Y selections differ markedly, for instance ISP and Rotosumo - until one realizes that even the Toto and ISP picks are wildly inconsistent with each other. In other words, we're either looking at at least three people here, or - much more likely - one player who runs different experimental strategies in some games, while making conservative entries in some others. Uncharitably, I could point out that Toto, ISP and Roto all see C-Y stuck in makushita, while games with high similarity (Quad, Oracle, also Hoshitori) all have C-Y at high ranks, making experimental strategies much less desirable in them.

- And on that topic: While running drone accounts for "fun" probably isn't a completely unusual occurence, I get highly annoyed when they're used to enable a player multiple shots at the yusho, and here we find my personal last straw: With C-Y in the Quad yusho race in Kyushu after the first few days, the similarity between the N and C-Y entries skyrocketed beyond its already high long-term level: While Day 1-5 saw 55% identical picks (11 of 20), which is about the 2009-2010 average, the number went to 69% for Day 6-9 (11 of 16), and unbelievable 85% for Day 10-14 (17 of 20). This indicates that, with a yusho at stake for the drone, Norizo felt compelled to copy his own "first-choice" picks onto the drone account almost verbatim, as it was clearly no time for experiments.

In the interest of not potentially ruining my final week before Hatsu basho with pointless discussions and a protracted quasi-legal battle about just how strong the statistical evidence is, I've decided to ban only the Choshu-yuki account and leave Norizo in place, even though the rules for all three games allow for the banning of all involved accounts. Making this public might well be the biggest punishment anyway. (Holiday feeling...)

Edited January 3, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Randomitsuki 2,681]

I'd just like to add that I fully support Asashosakari's decision. We are not talking about a kneejerk reaction here - actually we've been discussing about what to do for several months now. We tried to clear up this mess behind the scenes. And we've conducted statistical analyses, and the chances that two independent accounts are at play, are somewhere around 1 against several billion.

Therefore, Choshu-yuki's performances will also be deleted from all Superbanzuke-related stats.

[Umigame 82]

Wow! What a shock. Choshu-yuki's strategy in Toto was always annoying, but it never occurred to me that it might be a duplicate account.

So apparently this photo is also a fake?: http://www.strongoak.net/sb/sb200905.html

Personally I play only Toto (not Quad or Oracle), so honestly I don't fully understand the statistical analysis. But since you analyzed the similarity of picks, it reminds me (as I've noted before) that there are two players in my household. My wife and I certainly don't coordinate our picks -- we are each playing (desperately) to win individually. But we discuss the bouts quite a bit so I'm sure we influence each other's thinking. Call me paranoid but now you have me wondering what percentage of our picks are identical, and do you consider that statistically significant.

[Doitsuyama 1,161]

Personally I play only Toto (not Quad or Oracle), so honestly I don't fully understand the statistical analysis. But since you analyzed the similarity of picks, it reminds me (as I've noted before) that there are two players in my household. My wife and I certainly don't coordinate our picks -- we are each playing (desperately) to win individually. But we discuss the bouts quite a bit so I'm sure we influence each other's thinking. Call me paranoid but now you have me wondering what percentage of our picks are identical, and do you consider that statistically significant.

I don't think you have to worry much here.

Incidentally I did some analysis on my own with regard to the hoshitori picks. In this game high similarity between picks is more the rule than the exception so it seems difficult to prove that kind of collaboration between "two" players, since even by chance two players often have pretty similar lineups - Salarycap, Roto Sumo and Fantasy Sumo might be even worse in that respect though.

Nevertheless Norizo and Choshu-Yuki more than once have very similar hoshitori entries and I have found basho where these two had the most similar entries by far of all possible player pairings. In combination with the findings of Asashosakari and Randomitsuki that's enough evidence for me to remove Choshu-Yuki from the hoshitori banzuke since the rules state that only one entry per person is allowed.

[Ganzohnesushi 449]

Hmmm.. unfortunately I don't have the time to make a detailed analysis on Norizo's and Choshu-yuki's behaviour in Odd Sumo. All in all I checked approx. 10-15 days on different Basho since Kyushu 2008. On some days N. has 4 or 5 picks identical with C-Y who just has an additional 5th or 6th risky pick while on others they made their bets only with one or two identical Rikishi. Seems as if Odd gives you more variance to hide Sock puppets.

In case someone (Asashosakari?) has the time for a detailed analysis in Odd and can prove evidence that C-Y here also is just a copy of N. I'm willing to disregard C-Y's results from now on and ban her from Odd Banzuke. As Odd is still run by Golynohana (he did all the programming) we have to inform him, otherwise her results will influence the scores of all other players.

As Randomitsuki already stated in ST forum, "maybe Norizo does the graceful thing and retires the second account from the other games".

Ganzohnesushi

[Zentoryu 154]

Well, until this is cleared up one way or the other, Choshu-Yuki is also banned from RotoSumo as duplicate accounts are not allowed.

[Fujisan 523]

What a sad state of affairs after Norizo's SB WC 2010 win aswell.....

I will personally be interested in Norizos reaction to this,if anything...

[Tamanaogijima 689]

Well, until this is cleared up one way or the other, Choshu-Yuki is also banned from RotoSumo as duplicate accounts are not allowed.

Same for UDH. Choshu-Yuki will be suspended pending further notice.

[Gusoyama 70]

I'm going to buck the trend here, and allow Choso-Yuki for now. From Natsu 2008~Haru 2009, the C-Y and Norizo entries were very similar, often swapping one or two rikishi around in order or swapping one out for another. After that, however, the entries are rather different, including two no-shows from C-Y. I don't doubt the statistical analysis done by others, but strictly looking at my game, I can not make the same decision at this point.

[Norizo 0]

(I can't speach English well.It is likely to be likely to invite misunderstanding about the problem of the translation.)

Such a talk is a surprise for me.

Choshu-Yuki is my family.

(Her photo is true.)

We watch Ozumo on TV and talk about rikishis or bouts.

Our opinions are similar.

there are almost the same.

If it is a rule to which a similar vote is not permitted,

being excluded is also reluctant.

N-C is managed to loose very much.

I hope for generous feelings to the N-C players.

Sorry. :-D

I feel stifling in this place.

I think that it goes away from a purpose original of enjoying Ozumo.

I might retire in the near future.......?

[Asashosakari 17,635]

Thank you for your response, Norizo, I appreciate it. I will try to ask my questions in English that is easy to understand.

Choshu-Yuki is my family.

(Her photo is true.)

We watch Ozumo on TV and talk about rikishis or bouts.

Our opinions are similar.

there are almost the same.

I understand. It is like that for many families who play sumo games. But it is very confusing: Choshu-yuki selections are very similar to you in some games (SQ, S-O, Hoshitori), but very different in others (Toto, ISP, Roto).

Choshu-yuki selections are different on the same day, even. Kyushu Basho 2010:

Day	Rikishi	C-Y SQ	C-Y Toto	Norizo Toto
1	Shotenro	Win	Loss	Win
2	Asofuji	Win	Loss	Win
4	Daido	Win	Loss	Win
5	Bushuyama	Win	Loss	Win
5	Tochinowaka	Win	Loss	Win
7	Tamaasuka	Win	Loss	Win
9	Akiseyama	Win	Loss	Win
9	Hochiyama	Win	Loss	Win
10	Sokokurai	Win	Loss	Win
11	Takamisakari	Win	Loss	Win
12	Tosanoumi	Win	Loss	Win

Choshu-yuki SQ =/= Choshu-yuki Toto, but Choshu-yuki SQ == Norizo Toto ...? I do not understand. (In a state of confusion...)

If I misunderstand, please explain. Thank you.

Edited January 8, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Doitsuyama 1,161]

(I can't speach English well.It is likely to be likely to invite misunderstanding about the problem of the translation.)

That's not a too big problem I think if I could speak (write) with you at all. But I would like to have working emails for the hoshitori game players. The emails of you and Choshu-Yuki were the only ones to be not working, so I (and other game administrators too) weren't able to contact you. This forum proved to be the only way to get through to you by making our decision public.

I think I may establish a rule in hoshitori that emails must be working for the entry to be accepted, to prevent such problems.

[Fujisan 523]

I might retire in the near future.......?

Please dont retire......

You are well respected as a player....

[Sashohitowa 6]

In the situation, as described above, I am wondering on the following three things.

First of all, I cannot understan why would anyone bother to submit multiple entries for the sumo games. I don't see any 9additional) enjoyment in that, and the gain of extra experience or trying out different game tactics is dubious. In the worst case, you might split the successful selection into two losing scores..

Second, how is that situation influencing (negatively) the game? I would understand if a player had multiple accounts that submit identical picks -- then the win-loss line of all the players is shifted and everybody is influenced. But if the player submits different picks per game, then the chance one of them to be on the other side of the median is about 50%, I think.

And, in the end, what if such player, when gets busted, simply creates another account -- under different country flag, and this time without announcing his affiliation (for example, Moyazhopa II from Russia)? I might dangerously underestimating your statistical abilities ( ;-) ), but I assume that you don't have the analysis you mentioned running constantly between all possible pairs in the seki-games?

P.S.: Please don't consider the above as a comment on the particular decision you have taken. But let me take the opportunity to say "Thank you!" in advance of the upcoming basho for all the effords made to keep the sumo-games alive and interesting! B-)

Edited January 8, 2011 by Sashohitowa

[Asashosakari 17,635]

Second, how is that situation influencing (negatively) the game? I would understand if a player had multiple accounts that submit identical picks -- then the win-loss line of all the players is shifted and everybody is influenced. But if the player submits different picks per game, then the chance one of them to be on the other side of the median is about 50%, I think.

Would you like to lose a yusho to some player's second account?

[Sashohitowa 6]

Second, how is that situation influencing (negatively) the game? I would understand if a player had multiple accounts that submit identical picks -- then the win-loss line of all the players is shifted and everybody is influenced. But if the player submits different picks per game, then the chance one of them to be on the other side of the median is about 50%, I think.

Would you like to lose a yusho to some player's second account?

I would assume that the account that is capable of winning the yusho, is his primary one. (If we still talk about two accounts, submitting different entries). I cannot imagine how in Toto you can submit two different selections, and to be in the yusho race with both in the end. I think it is more likely to finish up with at least one of your IDs under the make-koshi line.

With Quad is it possible, but would require admirable skills.

But, Asashosarai, please don't read my comments as a disagreement with your decision. I am more wondering why on earth would anyone be interested in "hacking" like this a sumo game..

[Randomitsuki 2,681]

In the situation, as described above, I am wondering on the following three things.

First of all, I cannot understan why would anyone bother to submit multiple entries for the sumo games. I don't see any 9additional) enjoyment in that, and the gain of extra experience or trying out different game tactics is dubious. In the worst case, you might split the successful selection into two losing scores..

I don't know what motivates players to do this. Maybe Norizo and Choshu-yuki enter their picks separately, but I am convinced that one of them has access to the picks of the other. Take the Oracle picks of Haru 2009. In Juryo, there had been 27 rikishi in this basho. In 25 cases, the picks of Norizo and Choshu-yuki have been identical (with 1 win difference in the other two picks). I find it hard to believe that this similarity just comes from talking about the rikishi. Maybe Norizo writes the picks down on paper or has them in a computer file, and maybe Choshu-yuki copies his picks and makes very few changes (or vice versa). In any case, this is not independent picking anymore. It's copying plus minor tweaking.

Second, how is that situation influencing (negatively) the game? I would understand if a player had multiple accounts that submit identical picks -- then the win-loss line of all the players is shifted and everybody is influenced. But if the player submits different picks per game, then the chance one of them to be on the other side of the median is about 50%, I think.

This might be true for average players. But Norizo is the best player in the world, so except for the few cases where Choshu-yuki typically does the opposite of him, she also gets outstanding results. In games like Odd Sumo, records of all players can be massively affected by a second account. Moreover, it's just a matter of fairness. l have three different algorithms for pre-basho games, and nine different algorithms for daily playing, and they are all good enough to win an occasional yusho, and get into the Makuuchi portion of the Superbanzuke. But that wouldn't be very nice.

And, in the end, what if such player, when gets busted, simply creates another account -- under different country flag, and this time without announcing his affiliation (for example, Moyazhopa II from Russia)? I might dangerously underestimating your statistical abilities ( B-) ), but I assume that you don't have the analysis you mentioned running constantly between all possible pairs in the seki-games?

I'm not quite sure if I understand this question, but we are not constantly monitoring player similarities. Actually, I performed the analyses for Quad and Oracle because the accusation was there. I secretly hoped that there was evidence to the contrary. But if you compare more than 100 players and get several thousand player comparisons, and have the Norizo-Choshu-yuki pair as the most similar among several thousands in each game, the evidence becomes overwhelming. As to new accounts, this is certainly possible, but it probably would not go unnoticed if the player in question is as good as Norizo.

Maybe the best thing would be to discuss the issues not in public, but in private (the way it was always planned if Norizo had answered our mails). Moreover, it would probably be best if someone could translate, so that Norizo could answer in Japanese. But I think that in order to fully rehabilitate the second account, he must explain a lot of things, including how exactly these two players make their picks. At least that's my POV as far as the Superbanzuke is concerned.

Edited January 8, 2011 by Randomitsuki

[Doitsuyama 1,161]

I would assume that the account that is capable of winning the yusho, is his primary one. (If we still talk about two accounts, submitting different entries). I cannot imagine how in Toto you can submit two different selections, and to be in the yusho race with both in the end. I think it is more likely to finish up with at least one of your IDs under the make-koshi line.

With Quad is it possible, but would require admirable skills.

I would expect more fantasy from you... I have not much difficulties to imagine a second odd-sumo player who goes much more aggressively for the big score, effectively doubling the yusho chances. Incidentally it seemed to me (anecdotally) that "Choshu-Yuki" did just that.

[Asashosakari 17,635]

One question I've long wondered about: Why does Choshu-yuki miss so many days in Toto and ISP, but have perfect attendance in Quad? (How many players could possibly find ISP more burdensome to enter than Quad?)

And I haven't even listed all the days on which Choshu-yuki's ISP winner was picked as a loser in her Toto selections...

[Zenjimoto 39]

The plot thickens.

As far as what's wrong with second accounts, I can only say that there are many games where many veteran players have played a long time, some of them several times narrowly missing out on a Yusho. I distinctly remember Feginowaka missing out on a very coveted GTB Yusho, because another player had entered at least 3 picks under different names, and one of them ended up winning the Yusho (GTB is a classic example of a game that offers huge advantages of making multiple entries). While one may argue that these games aren't to be taken too seriously, and one might have a point, it is nevertheless aggrevating and disappointing when incidents like that one in GTB occur. It becomes doubly annoying when there are actual prizes offered, such as in GTB, pass-on prizes in BenchSumo, or formerly the prized offered in Sekitori-Toto and Sekitori-Oracle.

Edited January 9, 2011 by Zenjimoto

[Shiyonofuji/Kaiopectate 2]

I'd like to say that this whole event makes my jaw drop but, since I'm a sock monkey, I have to start by honestly admitting I don't have a jaw.

All I can say is that humans are remarkable, remarkable.

[Long pause, while we think about this whole situation for hours.]

The best player in the world, and he (it's always a he, isn't it, and also never a monkey) does this! It's so hard to fathom -- like, if you were already the greatest home run hitter in baseball but still you decided to take drugs to make you better ... inconceivable! Or, you're already running a nation, but still you decide to tap people's phones and e-mails. These things just don't happen!

To an ordinary player like me, the idea of developing a second entry is mystifying -- so I could have TWO sucky entries? I have such a hard time appreciating it, because it's pointless for me. And, when I try to think about making multiple entries in a game like CiberSumo, I actually get nauseous, which is a serious problem since, as I already said, I don't have a jaw.

I realize now, I'm surrounded by beings far more intellectually developed than me. Algorithms for entries in multiple games?! Mine is like, pick Takamisakari if he's ranked low, don't pick him if he's ranked high, pick fuzzy-looking guys, do it in a sexy way, but whatever you do and however you feel, don't pick Miyabiyama! Evidently some people have developed more sophisticated methodologies. How can we fix THAT imbalance? I should invent a game in which you choose the WORST players!

Even so, all seriousness aside, I have to wonder, how did Norizo's FIRST entries get so good? I suspect that it has something to do with the time zones. It's the same time in Japan, before it's that time here!

And now we'll have to change the name of the Norizo Cup. I recommend, "Kaiopectate, the Killer Sock Monkey Cup." It's catchy! (Shaking head...)

Pause to think about the world of sumo games and what it means to you. It's an escape from the real world. But, at times like these, the real world intrudes. Really sobering, like when I look in the mirror, like the time when Kofuji posted an actual picture of me. What's next? What's the next way in which real life will shake this imaginary world? They're shooting each other indiscriminately, in Arizona, in Iraq, in Africa. Could massacres happen of our imaginary personae here? It's a shock to the force merely when the server goes down.

I close by saying, I embrace you all, as we commence 2011. But, right now, I shake my imaginary head. I'm going to go scratch my real dogs' heads for a while and let them lick my face all they want.

Kaiopectate, TK(but not really)SM

[Vikanohara 171]

Ouch, I got to fight this monkey in Sumo Game tomorrow. (Poking the other guy...)

[Shiyonofuji/Kaiopectate 2]

The monkey's gonna be likkered up on Chimay, tomorrow, too!

[Sashohitowa 6]

I would assume that the account that is capable of winning the yusho, is his primary one. (If we still talk about two accounts, submitting different entries). I cannot imagine how in Toto you can submit two different selections, and to be in the yusho race with both in the end. I think it is more likely to finish up with at least one of your IDs under the make-koshi line.

With Quad is it possible, but would require admirable skills.

I would expect more fantasy from you... I have not much difficulties to imagine a second odd-sumo player who goes much more aggressively for the big score, effectively doubling the yusho chances. Incidentally it seemed to me (anecdotally) that "Choshu-Yuki" did just that.

I was talking about the Seki-games, particulary about Toto.

But, again, thank you all for the explainations and the comments -- I agree you have valid arguments.

Just to mention something about the ISP vs other games entries -- I personally am missing often entering pick there just because of my "daily routine". My "work/game" balance in the office makes me often check the results and right after that enter the new picks right after that. Sometimes it is not possible to do ISP right away, because the bout-of-the-day is decided a little bit later.

[Kintamayama 42,781]

Just to mention something about the ISP vs other games entries -- I personally am missing often entering pick there just because of my "daily routine". My "work/game" balance in the office makes me often check the results and right after that enter the new picks right after that. Sometimes it is not possible to do ISP right away, because the bout-of-the-day is decided a little bit later.

ISP is usually one of the quickest with the next day's match-ups, no thanks to me, BTW.. ISP also has an elaborate set of auto- picks that you can decide upon, although there is a reasonable limit to using them.

ISP is the best game run by the best people, period!! (Yusho winner...) (Showing respect...) (Clapping wildly...)

(In a state of confusion...) Medication?