Banzuke discussion for Hatsu 2011

[Asashosakari 19,206]

There does seem to have been a change, but this was older.

Yes, I agree that the trend was in development even before Kyushu 2006, but it reached a new quality afterwards. For example, I don't think it's a stretch to think that Natsu->Nagoya 2004 would now be handled like this:

Wakanosato (S1e 9-6)	S   Tochiazuma (O2w 0-0-15)
Hokutoriki (M1w 13-2)   K   Kotomitsuki (K1w 9-6)
Tamanoshima (M5w 12-3)  M1  Kyokutenho (S1w 6-9)

The "which records do not deserve an extra sanyaku slot" line has steadily increased, before 2007 it may have been that 12-3 from M7 wasn't enough for komusubi and 12-3 from M1 wasn't enough for sekiwake, with at least the latter case being quite a surprise at the time - but both being at least somewhat defensible. Since then it has really kicked into overdrive though with rejections for the likes of M2e 10-5 and M5w 12-3.

In any case, the trend I'm talking about is definitely a thing of the 2000's, so it's unconnected to the haridashi abolishment. As late as Haru->Natsu 1999, they still did this. Even granting that they would (probably...) go with 5 lower sanyaku in that situation even today, it would certainly be 3 komusubi, not 3 sekiwake.

I'd love to know if the "11+ wins at komusubi will force a promotion to sekiwake" standard is still going to be enforced, or if such a komusubi is now out of luck as well if both sekiwake finished KK...

[Randomitsuki 2,819]

I am not that interested in banzuke making intracacies as I was three years ago. However, it seemed to me that there was a point (in 2007 or 2008) from which on make-koshi in the lower sanyaku and joi-jin did not lead to soft falls, but were comparable in size to make-koshi lower down the ranks. Did others see the same pattern that I saw (about two or three years ago)? And if yes, could we conclude that the Sekiwake at 7-8 aren't that sure of staying Komusubi as they could have been before 2007?

Did somebody even understand this confusing question?

[Asojima 2,873]

... And if yes, could we conclude that the Sekiwake at 7-8 aren't that sure of staying Komusubi as they could have been before 2007?

Did somebody even understand this confusing question?

Agree. That is why I see Kakuryu as the fallguy in this scenario.

[Finn 0]

Hallo evrybody!

My posting is'nt any real posting, it's a "proverka sluhha" only, I'm looking, will my reply be visible or not.

About me: I'm from Onoe beya also as EizoShita and Jaak (Yusho winner...)

Edited December 14, 2010 by Finn

[Jaak 7]

I am not that interested in banzuke making intracacies as I was three years ago. However, it seemed to me that there was a point (in 2007 or 2008) from which on make-koshi in the lower sanyaku and joi-jin did not lead to soft falls, but were comparable in size to make-koshi lower down the ranks. Did others see the same pattern that I saw (about two or three years ago)?

Track record by ranks for 7:8.

S1e: last M1 demotion Kotonishiki 1992.01. Since then, 1 S1w demotion (Tochiazuma, 1997.11), 5 K1e and 5 K1w, including the last 3, Kisenosato 2009.09 and 2010.07 and Aran 2010.09.

S1w: last M demotion Takatoriki, 1992.03 to M2e. Since then, 3 K1e demotions, 7 K1w (incl. the last 3, Kotoshogiku 2007.03, Ama 2007.07, Kakuryu 2009.11) and 3 K2 creations.

K1e: last to get away with K1w was Kotomitsuki 2004.07, before that Musoyama 1996.09. Last 3 got M1e: Kisenosato 2007.01, Tokitenku 2007.07, Kisenosato 2010.09.

K1w: the demotions from 2007 have been Tokitenku 2007.03 and Aminishiki 2009.09 to M1w, Kotoshogiku 2007.05, Kakuryu 2010.01 and Tochiozan 2010.05 to M1e, Goeido 2001.11 to M2e.

Is there any pattern of harshness seen?

Edited December 14, 2010 by Jaak

[Asashosakari 19,206]

I am not that interested in banzuke making intracacies as I was three years ago. However, it seemed to me that there was a point (in 2007 or 2008) from which on make-koshi in the lower sanyaku and joi-jin did not lead to soft falls, but were comparable in size to make-koshi lower down the ranks. Did others see the same pattern that I saw (about two or three years ago)?

Sort of. My impression is that joijin rikishi with double-digit losses can't expect the same leniency as those with 7-8 and 6-9 anymore, especially when many rikishi are vying for the same spots. It's pretty hard to untangle all that in a manner that approaches "analysis" though, so I'm mostly going on gut feeling here...

This "observation" relates strictly to maegashira, however. I haven't seen any particular harshness with demoted sanyaku, the one exception being Hakuba earlier this year (K1e 4-11 -> M5w, really should have been M4w by everything they've done this decade). But that was the post-gambling banzuke making session, so I'm inclined to dismiss pretty much every oddity they committed there.

Edit: Okay, and the other exception being the inexplicable post-Haru 2009 session, which looks like somebody studied my extremely volatile S4 banzuke-making and thought, "hey, we can do that, too!"

Edit #2: BTW, if this was an S4 banzuke and I was somehow limited to 4 lower sanyaku, it would look like this:

Kisenosato (M1e 10-5)  S   Toyonoshima (M9w 14-1)
Kotoshogiku (M1w 9-6)  K   Aminishiki (M2e 8-7)
Tochiozan (S1e 7-8)	M1  Kakuryu (S1w 7-8)

I suppose the Bench Sumo banzuke makers would do that, too. Maybe that's the unexpected other thing Moti predicted...

Edited December 14, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Peeter 15]

Hallo evrybody!

My posting is'nt any real posting, it's a "proverka sluhha" only, I'm looking, will my reply be visible or not.

About me: I'm from Onoe beya also as EizoShita and Jaak (Yusho winner...)

Sorry for off topic, will You retire from Onoe, if Baruto become Yokozuna? (Singing drunk...)

[Sashohitowa 6]

About me: I'm from Onoe beya also as EizoShita and Jaak

You are from the heya? Then you have to be Baruto, considering your knowledge in Russian (Singing drunk...)

Welcome! (Yusho winner...)

[kuroimori 1,634]

Back ON topic now,

because this edition of the banzuke discussion thread was especially interesting and entertaining with all the insight and analysis of everyone who contributed to it, whether newcomer or expert! (Showing respect...)

Except for the post-gamling-punishment banzuke puzzle, the Haru 2010 basho banzuke announcement is one of the most anticipated ones for me.

Usually the jam in the mid and lower maegashira ranks are the most tricky part (at least for me) but this time we also have a nice riddle in lower sanyaku that needs to be solved.

I ended up submitting my GTB entry with just one pair each of Sekiwake and Komusubi because I believe the banzuke making guys prefer to stick to the current "conventional" format of the lower sanyaku ranks even if it results in having a lone rikishi at the Me17 "red lantern" spot. But who knows how they'll decide anyway...

I for myself cannot wait to look at the all-new banzuke on Monday!

[Bealzbob 0]

I for myself cannot wait to look at the all-new banzuke on Monday!

According to here you will have to wait until Tuesday.

[sekitori 492]

I for myself cannot wait to look at the all-new banzuke on Monday!

According to here you will have to wait until Tuesday.

They always come out with the Hatsu Basho banzuke earlier than for the other bashos--a day or two after the usual Monday release and close to three weeks before shonichi instead of two. I would assume that's because of the holiday season and the new year. Is there something in writing that dictates when the Hatsu Basho banzuke will be released?

[Asojima 2,873]

I for myself cannot wait to look at the all-new banzuke on Monday!

According to here you will have to wait until Tuesday.

Tuesday in Japan is Monday on this side of the world. I find this comforting knowing that the world cannot end today because it is already tomorrow there.

(Showing respect...)

[Doitsuyama 1,178]

The GTB selection stats will be interesting to data-mine this time... I suppose 4 sanyaku with Kotoshogiku at M1e is the least-favoured idea overall, but I for one can totally see even that happening, and I won't be surprised to see at least one major or semi-major GTB player submit a guess like that (and probably win the yusho with it if that's the correct alignment).

It's getting a bit late but here are the selection stats (finally).

Actually, the majority got it right with 4 sanyaku as only 12 players had 5 of them. 9 players had Kotoshogiku at M1e, 30 went with Kakuryu at M1e with 2 more having both Tochiozan and Kakuryu going to M1, and only 16 had Toyonoshima correctly at M1e.

The scores were much worse for Kotokasuga, Kimurayama, Kokkai with only 2 or 1 correct guesses, while no less than three rikishi left all of us without correct guess with Koryu, Okinoumi and especially Aran who was placed higher than any of us guessed (so I guess the sanyaku cushioning for higher make-koshi still is in effect).

[Asashosakari 19,206]

It's getting a bit late but here are the selection stats (finally).

Appreciated as always. (Shaking head...) Small bug report: Something in the detailed selection data seems to have gone haywire, for instance Aminishiki's two komusubi appearances are reported as "not selected". (Interestingly, those two players went with the "game-style" solution I proposed in post #56.)

Edit: In the GTB thread Moti posted that Harumataikai = Imumaru...will that be merged? Imumaru was near the top 10 in the rankings, after all...

Edited January 5, 2011 by Asashosakari

[Kintamayama 44,999]

Edit: In the GTB thread Moti posted that Harumataikai = Imumaru...will that be merged? Imumaru was near the top 10 in the rankings, after all...

It is his wish to start from the bottom.