Banzuke discussion for Hatsu 2011

[Asashosakari 18,968]

Let's not overlook Kotonishiki in November 1998 (M12W 14-1Y -> K2E) and and Takatoriki in March 2000 (M14W 13-2Y -> K2W, although there were few other promotion candidates in this case). Admittedly both those were yusho winners but isn't a kettei-sen supposed to be an "equivalent performance"? ;-)

As I was saying. (Dribbling...) A yusho would have made things a bit easier, at least we could be reasonably sure that Toyonoshima will be in sanyaku, so then it's just a question of whether Kakuryu is considered demotable or Kotoshogiku non-promotable. Ordinarily my answer would be "no" to both and I'd confidently predict three komusubi...basically treating Toyonoshima as an out-of-schedule bonus promotion, like Kotonishiki and Takatoriki. (Also Kotofuji.) Toyo's actual rank/win/yusho-doten combination is without recent precedent. Is "equivalent performance" still on? I don't have a clue. (Shaking head...)

[shumitto 418]

Is "equivalent performance" still on? I don't have a clue. (Shaking head...)

If Kettei-sen perfomances are no longer considered for banzuke making purposes, it is certain Toyonoshima will land at a San'yaku spot. As far as a 3rd Komusubi or Sekiwake is concerned, it is unlikely to take place. But who knows ?

[EizoShita 0]

Looks like nobody cares about Juryo banzuke, well, I care. Here is draft:

J1E Kaisei (J6e 11-4)

J1W Kyokunankai (J5e 10-5)

J2E Tochinowaka (J10e 11-4)

J2W Sakaizawa (J9e 10-5)

J3E Takayasu (J11e 11-4)

J3W Kasugao(M15w 5-10)

J4E Masatsukasa (J5w 8-7)

J4W Takarafuji (J7w 9-6)

J5E Shironoryu (J1w 6-9)

J5W Bushuyama(M12w 3-12)

J6E Tamanoshima (J8w 9-6)

J6W Wakatenro (J3w 6-9)

J7E Asofuji (J4e 6-9)

J7W Sadanofuji (J2w 5-10)

J8E Hoshikaze (J3e 5-10)

J8W Kakizoe ( J7e 7-8)

J9E Sadanoumi (J9w 8-7)

J9W Daido (J12w 9-6)

J10E Hochiyama (J6w 6-9)

J10W Hokutoriki (M17E 0-0-15)

J11E Kyoseumi (ms1E 4-3)

J11W Akiseyama (J13e 8-7)

J12E Yoshiazuma(ms4e 5-2)

J12W Nionoumi (ms4w 5-2)

J13E Chiyohakuho (J12e 7-8)

J13W Fujiazuma (ms5w 5-2)

J14E Masunoyama (J11w 6-9)

J14W Tsurugidake (J13w 7-8)

[Asashosakari 18,968]

Oh, I care. (Shaking head...)

Kaisei

[Asashosakari 18,968]

And now for something completely different: Given that Tosanoumi has apparently been demoted, no less than 4 former makuuchi rikishi are getting demoted to makushita at once this time. (When did that last happen?) That will put 12 former makuuchi into the lower divisions for the Hatsu 2011 banzuke, which I think is a new record, the previous high being 11 for Aki 2008 and Haru 2009 - I've only tracked this back to the year 2000, so corrections are welcome.

[Yubinhaad 11,594]

And now for something completely different: Given that Tosanoumi has apparently been demoted, no less than 4 former makuuchi rikishi are getting demoted to makushita at once this time. (When did that last happen?)

Not sure if it was the last time, but I specifically remember this happening in 2005 Nagoya, chiefly because three of the four demotees were former sanyaku - Hayateumi, Wakanoyama and Chiyotenzan. All former Komusubi, except Hayateumi who never made it to that rank... Plus Kinkaiyama.

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

And now for something completely different: Given that Tosanoumi has apparently been demoted, no less than 4 former makuuchi rikishi are getting demoted to makushita at once this time. (When did that last happen?)

Not sure if it was the last time, but I specifically remember this happening in 2005 Nagoya, chiefly because three of the four demotees were former sanyaku - Hayateumi, Wakanoyama and Chiyotenzan. All former Komusubi, except Hayateumi who never made it to that rank... Plus Kinkaiyama.

I love SQL. (Shaking head...) Nagoya 2005 is the last case indeed, four former makuuchi also got demoted after Haru 1964, Haru 1962 and Haru 1959. And there was Haru 1967 with six former makuuchi who got demoted (a special case for sure since the sekitori ranks got reduced by 16, so there were a lot of demotions to makushita).

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

And now for something completely different: Given that Tosanoumi has apparently been demoted, no less than 4 former makuuchi rikishi are getting demoted to makushita at once this time. (When did that last happen?) That will put 12 former makuuchi into the lower divisions for the Hatsu 2011 banzuke, which I think is a new record, the previous high being 11 for Aki 2008 and Haru 2009 - I've only tracked this back to the year 2000, so corrections are welcome.

You are right on all accounts - there were also 11 former makuuchi in the unpaid ranks in Kyushu 1995 but never more than 11. The trend is having longer careers nowadays, so the 11 in 1995 is more of an outlier than the 12 next basho.

Edit: I just checked the opposite and the last time with no former makuuchi in the lower divisions was Haru to Nagoya 1965. The last time with only one former makuuchi was Natsu 1999 (Daihisho).

Edited December 11, 2010 by Doitsuyama

[Jaak 7]

Some statistics on comparable marginal cases.

Maegashira, any maegashira with 14:1 result. 8 cases before Toyonoshima. 6 were yushos, 1 yusho-doten, 1 jun-yusho. All 8 without exception got in sanyaku - 4 of 8 as "haridashi" (last on separate line). Even Kiyokuni, with M13e jun-yusho in 1964.01 got promoted to S1W; K2eHD was the outcome for Tsurugamine (yusho-doten in M10e, 1956.01), Kotofuji (M13e yusho in 1991.07) and (without HD) Kotonishiki (M12w in 1998.11).

13:2 would give more options. 7 out of 24 stayed in maegashira, as high as Tamanoshima (M8W jun-yusho in 1966.01). But Takatoriki (M14e yusho in 2000.03) got K2w.

Now, M1W 9:6. Out of the 33, just 2 got to M1e (last Asahikuni after 1974.05). 6 got K2w, last Takatoriki after 1994.05.

Finally, S1W with 8 losses. 40 precedents. Just 5 were demoted to Maegashira, last Takatoriki after 1992.01. 8 got K2, among them 3 after demotion of Takatoriki. Tosanoumi after 1999.09 got K2W.

It seems to me that Kakuryu, Kotoshogiku and Toyonoshima are all entitled to sanyaku promotion (and if Kotoshogiku is entitled, so is Kisenosato - same argument for Kakuryu and Tochiozan). So there are compelling reasons for "haridashi".

What would be more likely - a K2 row or a S2 row?

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

So there are compelling reasons for "haridashi".

No argument from me here - except that I'm willing to bet a large amount that there won't be "haridashi" on the next banzuke. The last time with an haridashi extension was Kyushu 1994 which is awfully long ago, no?

[Bealzbob 0]

I've kept Toyo out of sanyaku. Though the one thing I can perhaps see in favour of having a 3rd sekiwake/komusubi is that it levels out the maegashira ranks to an even 32 and removes the (IMO ugly) M17 rank. Though I'm not sure they're particularly bothered by symmetry :) I'm pretty confident about the rest of my predictions this time around though. So much so that I aint sharin'! (Yusho winner...)

[Kuroyama 715]

The last time with an haridashi extension was Kyushu 1994 which is awfully long ago, no?

A single one, yes. But what about November, 2006?

[EizoShita 0]

Not sure about HD, but the order of sanyaku candidates should be:

1) Kise

2) Toy

3) Geeku

4) T-zan

5) Kak

[Jaak 7]

So there are compelling reasons for "haridashi".

No argument from me here - except that I'm willing to bet a large amount that there won't be "haridashi" on the next banzuke. The last time with an haridashi extension was Kyushu 1994 which is awfully long ago, no?

Which is why I took care to put quotation marks around the term - were the practice current, there would be no need for quote. Is there any new term for the practice of adding rows?

The only sekiwake to go S1 to S2 with 8 losses was Mitsuneyama, S1e, after 1951.05. Since then (27 cases), demotion to S2 happens to S1 who get 8 or sometimes 9 wins but presumably others do better. Last Tochiazuma, S1W in 2000.01, fell to S2 with 8:7.

I can see 16 promotions from maegashira to S2. But none of them was below M4w (Wakamisugi, 1960.05, 14:1Y). However, there are more cases of occupying a regular sekiwake position - Kotomitsuki rose from M9w, 2000.11, 13:2 J to S1w. Kiyokuni, in 1964.01 rose from M13e, 14:1 J to S1w. So Toyonoshima could qualify as sekiwake, and perhaps S2.

Returning to M-S2 promotions, these have been achieved from as little as 9:6 (Wakahaguro, 1957.03, M2e). But promotion to S2 is perhaps a bigger recognition than promotion to S1W - promotion to regular sekiwake post can simply mean lackluster performance where the rest of jo-jin did even worse, but promotion to S2 shows performance so compelling that even though sekiwake posts were taken, promotion to komusubi could not suffice...

[Asojima 2,873]

Not sure about HD, but the order of sanyaku candidates should be:

1) Kise

2) Toy

3) Geeku

4) T-zan

5) Kak

Kise, Shogi, Toyo, Ozan. Kaku loses.

[Jaak 7]

Not sure about HD, but the order of sanyaku candidates should be:

1) Kise

2) Toy

3) Geeku

4) T-zan

5) Kak

Kise, Shogi, Toyo, Ozan. Kaku loses.

Pretty likely that Kakuryu is the last. But remember Tosanoumi and 2 others before, who got K2 row.

What we need to compare here is Toyonoshima, Kakuryu and Kotoshogiku, because Tochiozan and Kisenosato are entitled to be above Kakuryu and Kotoshogiku respectively.

[sekitori 492]

Kise, Shogi, Toyo, Ozan. Kaku loses.

No one should have to lose in a situation like that. There is no rule stating that there must be only two rikishis at the komusubi level. In this case, the fairest thing to do would be having three of them.

[Asojima 2,873]

Kise, Shogi, Toyo, Ozan. Kaku loses.

No one should have to lose in a situation like that. There is no rule stating that there must be only two rikishis at the komusubi level. In this case, the fairest thing to do would be having three of them.

The only difference btwn M1E and K2e/w is an honorific and possibly a slight pay differential. They normally only go to more than 2 komusubi/sekiwake when there is no choice (no MK K or S, and a strong M1 showing). Here, they have 2 MK's and a hole at M1. There is a clear choice.

Edited December 13, 2010 by Asojima

[Jaak 7]

Kise, Shogi, Toyo, Ozan. Kaku loses.

No one should have to lose in a situation like that. There is no rule stating that there must be only two rikishis at the komusubi level. In this case, the fairest thing to do would be having three of them.

The only difference btwn M1E and K2e/w is an honorific and possibly a slight pay differential. They normally only go to more than 2 komusubi/sekiwake when there is no choice (no MK K or S, and a strong M1 showing). Here, they have 2 MK's and a hole at M1. There is a clear choice.

Have a look around the previous 7:8 sekiwakes.

Aki 1999. Tosanoumi, S1W.

The rest of banzuke was S1e Kaio 9:6, K1e Kotonishiki vacating the post with 5:10, K1w Musoyama 8:7, M1e Tochiazuma 10:5, M1W Tamakasuga 8:7, M2 both 7:8, M3e 6:9, M3w Akinoshima 11:4, M4 3:12 and 7:8, M5e Miyabiyama 10:5.

Kyushu 1999 banzuke contained S1e Kaio, S1w Tochiazuma, K1e Musoyama, K1w Akinoshima, K2w Tosanoumi, M1e Tamakasuga, M1w Miyabiyama.

Or the previous precedents: Tamakasuga after 1997:07 and Kotonishiki after 1993.01. My impression from statistics is that demoting a sekiwake to maegashira for 7:8 performance seems to be avoided, and even if there are other good komusubi candidates, a komusubi row would be added rather than demote the sekiwake to maegashira.

[EizoShita 0]

If there would be an extra sanyaku position, then which one ?

I think, it depends on Toyonoshima.

If he would be number 2 (I think he would), then I

[Kintamayama 44,646]

I always immensely enjoy these discussions, since almost always the "other" thing none of us thought would/could happen does. I've learned that with these guys it's getting extremely difficult to guess their way of thinking.

I don't play the famous game, but I am pretty sure Toyonoshima will be in Sanyaku. I don't see how a 14-1 ketteisen loss from M9 will not be enough. No way in purgatoria. how the other ranks will fall in is anybody's guess, but steak on Toyonoshima.

Edited December 13, 2010 by Kintamayama

[Asashosakari 18,968]

Have a look around the previous 7:8 sekiwakes. ...

The problem with precedents is that something in their mentality clearly changed a few years ago. After adding two extra sanyaku slots for Kyushu 2006 for the last time (via M1w 10-5 and M3w 11-4), they've gone through major contortions to avoid doing it again, including in the very next basho (M2e 10-5 -> M1e, M3w 10-5 -> M1w).

My gut feeling is that "7-8 sekiwake can't drop past komusubi" is a pretty strong principle and likely to send Kakuryu to K1w, with either Giku or Toyo missing out instead, but strictly speaking I don't think we actually have any precedence cases for this yet. Everything pre-2007 needs to be taken with a large amount of salt.

(That being said, I'll be first in line to applaud them if the next banzuke has 5 lower sanyaku even if my GTB entry ends up with double-digit losses because of it... Heck, I'll even applaud them if there are 4 lower sanyaku and the M1e is named Kakuryu, for the sheer out-of-the-box thinking it would represent.)

Looking at the Aki->Kyushu 1999 case you've mentioned, I'm pretty sure that would end up as

Kaio (S1e 9-6)		 S   Musoyama (K1w 8-7)
Tochiazuma (M1e 10-5)  K   Tosanoumi (S1w 7-8)
Tamakasuga (M1w 8-7)   M1  Akinoshima (M3w 11-4)

today. Maybe they'd do the sensible thing and flip the two M1, but even that would surprise me a bit as the "every 8-7 must move up at least one slot" thing seems to be followed almost religiously nowadays.

Apropos Giku vs. Toyo, if 3 wins don't beat 3.5 ranks, do 5 wins beat 8?* It all hinges on how much extra benefit Toyonoshima derives from having that yusho-doten next to his 14-1, IMO. (And on whether they've been willing to knock Kakuryu out of sanyaku for the benefit of both guys, of course.) If this was Giku M1w 8-7, Toyo M9w 13-2 (no playoff) instead, I don't think there'd be any question who goes to sanyaku and who doesn't.

* Bonus Homasho screwjob: Two years later, 3 wins didn't beat 4.5 ranks either, even though the guy who moved up to komusubi didn't have a particularly strong claim himself with 8 wins from M2w. Big joi-jin bonus nowadays, I guess, or maybe they just hate Homasho.

I've kept Toyo out of sanyaku.

Still need to finalize my entry (M11-M14 is a bit agonizing for me, to a lesser degree also M3-M6), but FWIW I'm going to go with the same setup.

Edited December 13, 2010 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 18,968]

I always immensely enjoy these discussions, since almost always the "other" thing none of us thought would/could happen does.

What's the "other thing" here? Pretty much every scenario has at least one person arguing in favour of it. (Yusho winner...) The GTB selection stats will be interesting to data-mine this time... I suppose 4 sanyaku with Kotoshogiku at M1e is the least-favoured idea overall, but I for one can totally see even that happening, and I won't be surprised to see at least one major or semi-major GTB player submit a guess like that (and probably win the yusho with it if that's the correct alignment).

Edit: If there's something to learn from all that, it's probably: The senshuraku bout really should have been Toyonoshima-Kotoshogiku, not Toyonoshima-Kisenosato.

Edited December 13, 2010 by Asashosakari

[ryafuji 811]

I don't play the famous game, but I am pretty sure Toyonoshima will be in Sanyaku. I don't see how a 14-1 ketteisen loss from M9 will not be enough. No way in purgatoria. how the other ranks will fall in is anybody's guess, but steak on Toyonoshima.

Completely agree. The only factor I could possibly see denying him is (as someone mentioned above) some sort of lingering gambling punishment, but I don't think that's likely - they did award him two sansho, after all.

[Jaak 7]

Have a look around the previous 7:8 sekiwakes. ...

The problem with precedents is that something in their mentality clearly changed a few years ago. After adding two extra sanyaku slots for Kyushu 2006 for the last time (via M1w 10-5 and M3w 11-4), they've gone through major contortions to avoid doing it again, including in the very next basho (M2e 10-5 -> M1e, M3w 10-5 -> M1w).

There does seem to have been a change, but this was older.

After the "haridashi" practice was dropped (1994.07 had K2 without HD), there have been 12 banzukes with K2 row. 11 of them were from 1994.07 to 2000.05. Since then, only 2006.11. Of course, this does not compare cases where adding rows could have been justified but was not done.

S2 is often filled by ex-ozekis. Excluding them, there have been 12 banzukes with S12 since 1995.11. The last two were Tochiazuma 2000.03 and Wakanosato 2003.03.

As for precedents of Toyonoshima: there have been 8 14:1 maegashiras, 6 were yushos (did not check for kettei-sen victories), 1 yusho-doten, 1 jun-yusho. None stayed in maegashira, 3 reached K2, 1 K1, 1 got S2 and 3 got S1W. Out of the 23 13:2 maegashiras, 2 were neither yusho nor jun-yusho, 11 were jun-yusho, 2 were yusho-doten, 8 were yusho. 6 stayed in maegashira, 1 got K2, 7 got K1, 9 reached sekiwake (2 of them S2). The highest maegashira to stay there after 13:2 was M8w Tamanoshima after 1966.01.

Edited December 14, 2010 by Jaak