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Jakusotsu

Aki Banzuke 2010 speculations

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Shotenro (5-10) losing to Tamanoshima by yorikirii, 3.7 sec

Make that "winning".

Takamisakari (9-6) losing to Shimotori by yorikiri,3.4 sec

------------------------------------------------------

(Was a candidate for Shukun-sho but unable to get it.)

Shukun-sho? Not likely...

"We treat them all equal and will not apply any additional demotion," the oyakata said. However at the same time it will mean all six Makuuchi rikishi in the baseball gambling kyujo will fall down to Juryo. Including those who will make Makuuchi from Juryo on merit, there likely be around 10 rikishi who swap their place between Juryo and Makuuchi."

(Clapping wildly...) Is this to be taken seriously? GTB players, attention!!

Many, many thanks, Jonosuke-san for your efforts! (Shaking head...) (I am not worthy...)

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The part of promotion/demotion thing, be reminded that it is not a quote from Tomozuna oyakata as he will never specifically comment on the banzuke ranking for the next basho as he is a part of the process but it was included in the article I quoted from. It is entirely possible that it was written by a non-sumo beat reporter.

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:-O Is this to be taken seriously? GTB players, attention!!

If they're serious about not changing their usual approach any more than necessary, there's really no way all six guys drop to juryo. Seriously, while down to Tochinonada everybody is at least borderline credible, they're still short three promotees at that point and the next-best candidate either went 8-7 at J7w or 10-5 at J12w. Too bad Tamaasuka failed to get the 6th win, he might have been able to go M16e->M17e with that. I don't think it's gonna happen with a 5-10.

And yes, many thanks for the recent pair of supersized Rikishi Talks! (Sign of approval...)

Edited by Asashosakari

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:-O Is this to be taken seriously? GTB players, attention!!

If they're serious about not changing their usual approach any more than necessary, there's really no way all six guys drop to juryo. Seriously, while down to Tochinonada everybody is at least borderline credible, they're still short three promotees at that point and the next-best candidate either went 8-7 at J7w or 10-5 at J12w. Too bad Tamaasuka failed to get the 6th win, he might have been able to go M16e->M17e with that. I don't think it's gonna happen with a 5-10.

And yes, many thanks for the recent pair of supersized Rikishi Talks! (Sign of approval...)

What I'm reading into this is that there is a possibility of cutting Makuuchi down, say, to 40, temporarily or not.

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What I'm reading into this is that there is a possibility of cutting Makuuchi down, say, to 40, temporarily or not.

The problem is that that has spill-over effects into juryo. I suppose we may get some indication on Wednesday from the number of promoted makushita... If they really cut down makuuchi there should be a lot fewer promotions than expected. Unless juryo is expanded in turn, but I doubt that's in the cards.

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Regarding Tomozuna comment, here are the referred sections from the original Jiji Press article:

This one is the reporter's view.

友綱審判部長(元関脇魁輝)は編成上、懲罰的な降格はしない方針だが、全休と同等に扱うため、6人全員が十両に転落するとみられる

While Tomozuna oyakata (former Sekiwake Kaiki) has a policy of not applying (forced) demotion for punishment purpose, he will treat them all equally as all others, (as a result) all six may be considered to fall down to Juryo.

友綱部長は「幕内と十両の定員は守る」とした上で、「原則を当てはめると誰も上がれなくなる。今場所は100年に1度のこと。えーっという例も出る」と言う。

While prefacing "the standard quota for Juryo and Makuuchi is to be preserved", Tomozuna director says "if we follow the rules (strictly) then no one will able to go up. This basho is once in 100 years happening. There will be a case of 'Huh?'"

幕下6枚目以下の4勝3敗など、本来なら十両に上がれないケースでも異例の昇進がありそうだ。

We may have unusual cases of not normally promoted to Juryo such as Makushita 6 and below rikishi with 4-3 record who may get promoted.

Edited by Jonosuke

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So will Asashosakari reflect on his patronizing tone and realize that he doesn't know as much as he thinks he knows about sumo?

No, of course he will not.

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"There is no person who was punished who will keep his current status", said Tomozuna. Can't seem to be clearer than that I guess.. 9 demotions to Juryo, 8 demotions to Makushita.

This I gotta see.

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"There is no person who was punished who will keep his current status", said Tomozuna. Can't seem to be clearer than that I guess..

Depends on the definition of "status". Does Maegashira 16 have the same status as Maegashira 4?

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"There is no person who was punished who will keep his current status", said Tomozuna. Can't seem to be clearer than that I guess..

Depends on the definition of "status". Does Maegashira 16 have the same status as Maegashira 4?

Status in this case means "division". If it were rank, a demotion goes without saying and Tomozuna wouldn't have mentioned it and the fact that this is something that may happen "once in a hundred years". The subtleties of the Japanese language. In any case , the reporter understood it that way, as he counted the demotions. Still, it's one man's opinion and the other banzuke makers will surely have their own opinions.

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A Mainichi article says even J11 Toyozakura with 8 wins will make it into Makuuchi.....

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Colour me stunned, but I guess they're gonna play hardball after all. Then again, still 36 hours remaining for sanity to prevail.

Pretty hilarious though that Kyokunankai might get a makuuchi debut out of this after 30 juryo basho in which he was never really close to promotion. And I wonder if the final promotion would be Toyozakura or Wakatenro. Kind of rooting for the latter even if I'm a fan of the former...

The Mainichi article Kinta and Jonosuke are talking about also mentions that "approximately 8 juryo rikishi may fall to the makushita division" - that only works out if YMY is also on the bubble. Note that that's the writer speaking, not Tomozuna.

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The reporters are now speculating that as many as 10 rikishi will be promoted from Juryo, and even go as far as saying it may be a record, the former record being from 1943 (and two other times)- 8. As for promotions to Juryo, anywhere between 6-9, the old record is from 1949- 9 rikishi.

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The reporters are now speculating that as many as 10 rikishi will be promoted from Juryo

#10 to go out would presumably be Kakizoe. That would be rather nuts, if suitably ironic...they didn't drop him after Nagoya 2007 when they actually had a semi-credible candidate for his spot (J4e Wakanoho 8-7), but they're going to throw him out this time for some double-digit ranker? I think I'll file that under "wishful reporter thinking" for now...

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The reporters are now speculating that as many as 10 rikishi will be promoted from Juryo

#10 to go out would presumably be Kakizoe. That would be rather nuts, if suitably ironic...they didn't drop him after Nagoya 2007 when they actually had a semi-credible candidate for his spot (J4e Wakanoho 8-7), but they're going to throw him out this time for some double-digit ranker? I think I'll file that under "wishful reporter thinking" for now...

AND, he was "let off the hook", so maybe that's the incentive, as he was actually a baseball gambler, albeit a light one.

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The tainted Oyakata Kokonoe, Kasugano and Sadogatake from the shinpan office will not be participating in the Banzuke making process. "Only shinpan who were attending the basho should be making the banzuke", said Tomozuna head of the shinpan office.

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Silly question, but what is Miyabiyama gonna do, as a former ozeki being sent back to juryo ? Will he intai then or will the pressure to do so be lenient, owing to these particular circumstances ?

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As for promotions to Juryo, anywhere between 6-9, the old record is from 1949- 9 rikishi.

And promptly corrected by a more recent run of articles - 12 in Natsu 1947.

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Mods and Rockers: Is it possible to move all stuff related to the next banzuke to a thread of its own? I'm pretty sure some of us would wish to return to this in the future, but won't remember which thread it was in..

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Silly question, but what is Miyabiyama gonna do, as a former ozeki being sent back to juryo ? Will he intai then or will the pressure to do so be lenient, owing to these particular circumstances ?

YDC member Sawamura: "If he falls to Juryo it will be because of the gambling and it can't be helped. I'd like to see him take the yusho and return with splendor!!" If he does fight in Juryo, he will be the second ex-Ozeki to do so, after current Asahiyama (ex-Daiju the antisemite) in Natsu 1977.

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With so many top guys in juryo it could be a tough competition WHO'll be the first to return to makuuchi. Some extremely unlucky gamblers may even get make koshi there...

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Silly question, but what is Miyabiyama gonna do, as a former ozeki being sent back to juryo ? Will he intai then or will the pressure to do so be lenient, owing to these particular circumstances ?

YDC member Sawamura: "If he falls to Juryo it will be because of the gambling and it can't be helped. I'd like to see him take the yusho and return with splendor!!" If he does fight in Juryo, he will be the second ex-Ozeki to do so, after current Asahiyama (ex-Daiju the antisemite) in Natsu 1977.

(Being unsure...)

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(ex-Daiju the antisemite)

Took me a while to figure that one out...

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(ex-Daiju the antisemite)

Took me a while to figure that one out...

さむーーーーい

I didn't get it neither until I tried again when I saw your quote.

Thanks, ryafuji for helping me getting that one from Oyajigyaguyama.

(Being unsure...)

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A makushita guess...those 0-0-15 demotions could be way too small (especially Kasuganishiki's), but with Iwakiyama apparently only dropping about 12 ranks I decided to stick with that. Everything slots in pretty well this way, too, without completely ridiculous overpromotions/underdemotions for the higher-ranked makushita guys. Lots of room available below Ms10 due to several intai and many zero-win results, so any KK outside of makushita-joi should be worth a sizable jump this time.

Daido

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