Doitsuyama 1,178 Posted May 21, 2010 The rikishi on the bubble of juryo promotion seem to be given opportunities to make their case in front of a juryo audience, with Sadanoumi's and Kaisei's turn today. Sadanoumi missed the chance to get a sixth win with a deserved loss to Kanbayashi, but Kaisei showcased his increased strength in a nice oshidashi over Wakatenro, finishing with a third consecutive 5-2 and an increasingly likely sekitori debut next basho. Takarafuji limited his fall, getting a third win against small Takateru, but he might still drop just outside of the makushita joi and get replaced by Mongolian Shironoryu who beat young phenom Takayasu to finish 5-2. Further down Tochitenko lost to Gorikiyama but he might still find reason to celebrate as this was his 800th makushita appearance and he got the kachi-koshi anyway. Of course he is the all time leader, second with 698 appearances is Kotokanyu with Fukuzono (short time juryo Tsurunofuji) a distant third with 564 appearances, both retired just a few years ago. On the lower division yusho front we have Maeta beating 21 years old Kyokushuho for the makushita yusho and a promotion to about Ms3, a new career high. The sandanme yusho went to Takunishiki, who is somewhat similar to Maeta, as both were college rikishi going pro within a year, shooting up the divisions quickly with the first make-koshi in high makushita (Takunishiki even had 12 consecutive kachi-koshi to start his career), only to find that they don't have it what it takes to get through to juryo. Both are the heavy bodytype as well, especially Maeta. Takunishiki won against Kei and he won't have to go through a playoff because Ikinoshima lost to Sasakiyama, coming up from jonidan. The second 7-0 rikishi from jonidan is Saishin who beat Enshunada and will enjoy facing Sasakiyama in the kettei-sen as both met in their first jonokuchi bout with Sasakiyama getting the win and both are 13-0 since then. The jonokuchi yusho is going to Mongolian Ryuonami who beat Hashimoto with yoritaoshi in the decider between the two shin-deshi. Jonokuchi Jk32w Sawada (4-3) shitatenage Jk27e Kotoomura (3-4) Jk22w Kotodoi (3-4) yorikiri Jk20w Hara (2-5) Jk20e Murashita (1-6) yorikiri Jk30w Tajima (0-1) Jk19e Hayatemune (4-3) yorikiri Jk28w Hisasakamoto (4-3) Jk18e Mukai (4-3) oshitaoshi Jk21e Masutenryu (3-4) Jk9w Ryuonami (7-0) yoritaoshi Jk17w Hashimoto (6-1) Jk8w Kitasatsuma (4-3) hatakikomi Jk10w Yoshifuji (3-4) Jk9e Hokutokuni (1-0) yorikiri Jk5e Tatsunishiki (0-7) Jk4e Barikimaru (2-0) oshidashi Jk31w Wakashoji (1-6) Jk12w Takasaito (3-4) oshidashi Jk1w Kawabata (2-5) Jonidan Jk1e Kasachikara (4-3) oshidashi Jd124e Aratobi (3-4) Jd117e Masuhayato (5-2) yorikiri Jd119w Daishiryu (4-3) Jd115e Daikosei (4-3) oshidashi Jd117w Fukusegawa (3-4) Jd119e Shuho (3-4) oshidashi Jd114e Hakubizan (2-5) Jd111e Kanryu (4-3) kotenage Jd108w Hamadayama (3-4) Jd106e Aonosho (5-2) oshidashi Jd103w Hayatefuji (4-3) Jd105w Raizan (4-3) yorikiri Jd101w Shintaku (3-4) Jd96w Minezakura (6-1) sukuinage Jd109e Motokiyama (5-2) Jd95e Oyamamoto (3-4) yorikiri Jd98w Kotokonjo (2-5) Jd109w Hayashi (2-5) tsukiotoshi Jd92e Maenokatsu (0-7) Jd93e Zendaisho (4-3) yorikiri Jd90e Kotofubuki (3-4) Jd88e Amakusa (2-5) shitatenage Jd97w Shimasegawa (1-6) Jd84e Arai (4-3) oshidashi Jd86w Yamamoto (3-4) Jd82e Nioyama (5-2) oshidashi Jd87e Tochitensho (4-3) Jd83e Kotowatanabe (4-3) oshidashi Jd81e Takatenshu (3-4) Jd79e Kinpozan (1-0) yorikiri Jd79w Isanishiki (0-7) Jd76w Rokumonsen (3-4) oshidashi Jd74w Kotokuzan (2-5) Jd70w Matsuura (5-2) yorikiri Jd67w Kisenishiki (4-3) Jd68w Yamato (5-2) uwatenage Jd67e Takeda (4-3) Jd63w Miyakita (3-4) oshidashi Jd60w Ranbuzan (2-5) Jd61e Daigonishiki (4-3) kimetaoshi Jd60e Ryushonami (3-4) Jd49w Saishin (7-0) oshidashi Jd98e Enshunada (6-1) Jd50e Hatachijo (4-3) oshidashi Jd49e Kongofuji (3-4) Jd48e Masuryu (6-1) yorikiri Jd52e Owada (5-2) Jd47e Sumanoumi (4-3) oshidashi Jd48w Fujinoumi (3-4) Jd47w Hayatejo (3-4) yorikiri Jd41w Masunoumi (2-5) Jd38e Ikataumi (2-5) yorikiri Jd54e Byakko (1-6) Jd39e Yoshinofuji (4-3) oshidashi Jd36e Kiritora (3-4) Jd29e Adachi (2-5) yorikiri Jd34w Echizenyama (1-6) Jd31e Kasugashin (3-4) yoritaoshi Jd23w Owarifuji (2-5) Jd25e Yatsurugi (3-4) yoritaoshi Jd22e Mori (2-5) Jd21e Shibahara (4-3) oshidashi Jd24e Wakahikari (3-4) Jd19w Oseumi (4-3) yoritaoshi Jd24w Igarashi (3-4) Jd15e Tamakishin (2-5) okuritaoshi Jd12e Kyokuhikari (1-6) Jd12w Takamiryu (5-2) tsukiotoshi Jd8e Takashoma (4-3) Jd3e Yutsukasa (4-3) kakenage Jd5w Naniwaryu (3-4) Jd1w Kotosaito (1-6) okuridashi Jd32w Kurenishiki (0-7) Sandanme Sd99w Toofuji (3-4) yorikiri Jd4w Daika (2-5) Sd96e Hoshiazuma (4-3) hatakikomi Sd100e Hamamiryu (3-4) Sd92e Tochiotoha (3-4) uwatenage Sd91w Hayasegawa (2-5) Jd20e Sasakiyama (7-0) oshidashi Sd91e Ikinoshima (6-1) Sd88e Daishoiwa (5-2) yorikiri Sd90w Takamisato (4-3) Sd89e Kirizakura (4-3) oshidashi Sd87w Chiyosakae (3-3) Sd87e Isamizuki (4-3) oshidashi Sd81w Haruhikari (3-4) Sd84e Shunba (4-3) yorikiri Sd79w Hakunishiki (3-4) Sd67e Tochifudo (5-2) tsukiotoshi Sd76e Fujinokaze (4-3) Sd66w Hidaka (5-2) yorikiri Sd74e Higonoryu (4-3) Sd66e Asabenkei (5-2) yorikiri Sd70w Hanasegawa (4-3) Sd65e Kasugaryu (6-1) shitatedashinage Sd73w Kaorufuji (5-2) Sd62w Takaisamu (3-4) hatakikomi Sd64e Honda (2-5) Sd61e Ryukiyama (4-3) oshidashi Sd67w Kasugashima (3-4) Sd60e Higo (5-2) uwatedashinage Sd63w Komanokuni (4-3) Sd55e Hokutoiwa (3-4) tsukiotoshi Sd58w Akinoyama (2-5) Sd53w Isanokuni (5-2) uwatenage Sd56e Sachiazuma (4-3) Sd54w Kamiyutaka (4-3) yoritaoshi Sd52w Daishowaka (3-4) Sd42w Goki (4-3) oshidashi Sd51w Tamanotaka (3-4) Sd47w Ryutei (3-4) yoritaoshi Sd37e Kisenowaka (2-5) Sd36e Tochikasuga (3-4) oshidashi Sd35e Kaishinho (2-5) Sd33e Hokutotsuru (1-6) yorikiri Sd65w Gonoumi (0-7) Sd35w Minanosato (4-3) sotogake Sd30w Okoryu (3-4) Sd32e Chiyootori (5-2) oshidashi Sd25e Daishoryu (4-3) Sd23e Takunishiki (7-0) uwatenage Sd46e Kei (6-1) Sd19w Hamaeiko (2-5) okuridashi Sd22e Toshinyama (1-6) Sd18w Haruzakura (4-3) hatakikomi Sd20e Dewanosato (3-4) Sd18e Kakureizan (3-4) yorikiri Sd20w Hokkairyu (2-5) Sd16e Migikataagari (4-3) uwatenage Sd14e Kazafuzan (3-4) Sd8e Sadanishiki (4-3) okuridashi Sd12e Aisaka (3-4) Sd5e Katsunofuji (3-4) yorikiri Sd7e Wakakasuga (2-5) Sd9e Karatsuumi (5-2) kotenage Sd4e Inoue (4-3) Makushita Sd2w Mankajo (4-3) oshidashi Ms60e Musoketsu (3-4) Ms59w Nishikikaze (3-4) oshidashi Sd3w Chiyonoshin (2-5) Ms56e Gorikiyama (5-2) yoritaoshi Ms58w Tochitenko (4-3) Ms52w Wakanoshima (3-4) oshidashi Ms55e Yamashita (2-5) Ms50e Tokachiumi (4-3) yorikiri Ms53w Kairyu (3-4) Ms49e Tokitsukasa (6-1) oshidashi Ms52e Bungonishiki (5-2) Ms50w Kagamio (5-2) uwatenage Ms45w Kotokuni (4-3) Ms41e Higonojo (4-3) oshidashi Ms40e Sensho (3-4) Ms46w Ryujinsakari (1-6) yorikiri Ms33e Araumi (0-7) Ms35w Maeta (7-0) oshidashi Ms32e Kyokushuho (6-1) Ms28w Mochimaru (5-2) yorikiri Ms36e Kasugakuni (4-3) Ms29e Ryuden (4-3) oshidashi Ms27e Tochitsubasa (3-4) Ms22w Kaonishiki (4-3) kotenage Ms25w Surugatsukasa (3-4) Ms18e Minami (3-4) yorikiri Ms19e Shoketsu (2-5) Ms19w Kitaharima (5-2) oshidashi Ms14w Daitensho (4-3) Ms14e Ryuo (3-4) kotenage Ms17w Daishoyama (2-5) Ms11w Fukao (4-3) yoritaoshi Ms9e Shirononami (3-4) Ms7e Shironoryu (5-2) oshitaoshi Ms10w Takayasu (4-3) Ms8w Satsumahibiki (4-3) yorikiri Ms6w Jumonji (3-4) Ms2w Takarafuji (3-4) kimedashi Ms7w Takateru (2-5) Juryo J13w Kanbayashi (6-7) hatakikomi Ms5e Sadanoumi (5-2) Ms2e Kaisei (5-2) oshidashi J11e Wakatenro (5-8) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pippooshu 1 Posted May 21, 2010 I'm sad about Jumonji's Make-Koshi. Maybe it's time to retire for him. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,150 Posted May 21, 2010 Maybe it's time to retire for him. Why? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pippooshu 1 Posted May 21, 2010 Maybe it's time to retire for him. Why? He's old... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,150 Posted May 21, 2010 (edited) Here's something rather frivolous, but maybe somebody's interested: I've worked through the potential outcomes for the makushita promotion race, and these are each rikishi's likelihood of being promoted: Masuraumi 50% Hochiyama 98.4% Kaisei 99.2% Tsurugidake 75.8% Yoshiazuma 1.2% Sadanoumi 13.3% Takanoyama 12.1% I'm assuming coin-toss probability for each involved bout, so those numbers aren't a reflection of actual performance, just of the number of different scenarios that are favourable to each contender. Tsurugidake may be massively overvalued; I'm assuming that he would be first in line for promotion among Ms3e Tsurugidake 4-3 Ms5e Sadanoumi 5-2 Ms6e Takanoyama 6-1 which is a situation on which several scenarios turn, but that's just an educated guess. I suspect if that set of results occurs, the most likely outcome is actually that all three get stuck in makushita and some juryo rikishi will get lucky instead. There are some other dicey assumptions, but those all have minor effects. All scenarios in which Takanoyama gets promoted require him to finish 6-1, which BTW is something he has never done before in makushita. (And even more trivial, of course the 50% of outcomes in which Masuraumi gets promoted are those in which he wins tomorrow to finish 4-3.) Edited May 21, 2010 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sokkenaiyama 80 Posted May 21, 2010 I'm curious - how would a surprise intai from above (say Iwakiyama) affect those odds? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,150 Posted May 21, 2010 Aww hell, you're not gonna make me work through all that again. (Applauding...) But eyeballing it: Hochiyama and Kaisei to 100%, Tsurugidake to nearly 100%, Yoshiazuma to perhaps 5%, Sadanoumi and Takanoyama to 45-55% each. Keep in mind that having yet another guaranteed spot to play with may make it much more likely that they'll be lenient to some juryo rikishi (e.g. Futeno with 6-9 or Sadanofuji with 7-8 might get to stay). At any rate, the biggest sticking point no matter how many spots are available is what I outlined above when several makushita are "tied", because the banzuke makers often chicken out and don't promote either guy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kuroyama 715 Posted May 22, 2010 Aww hell, you're not gonna make me work through all that again. (Applauding...) But eyeballing it: Hochiyama and Kaisei to 100%, Tsurugidake to nearly 100%, Yoshiazuma to perhaps 5%, Sadanoumi and Takanoyama to 45-55% each. Keep in mind that having yet another guaranteed spot to play with may make it much more likely that they'll be lenient to some juryo rikishi (e.g. Futeno with 6-9 or Sadanofuji with 7-8 might get to stay). At any rate, the biggest sticking point no matter how many spots are available is what I outlined above when several makushita are "tied", because the banzuke makers often chicken out and don't promote either guy. I'd love it if Takanoyama made juryo this time, but I'd be even happier if he stayed there for awhile. So if he doesn't make it this time -- meh. If he's gonna have any staying power as a sekitori at all, he ought to be able to manage consecutive makushita KKs without any problem. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Pippooshu 1 Posted May 22, 2010 Here's something rather frivolous, but maybe somebody's interested: I've worked through the potential outcomes for the makushita promotion race, and these are each rikishi's likelihood of being promoted:Masuraumi 50% Hochiyama 98.4% Kaisei 99.2% Tsurugidake 75.8% Yoshiazuma 1.2% Sadanoumi 13.3% Takanoyama 12.1% I'm assuming coin-toss probability for each involved bout, so those numbers aren't a reflection of actual performance, just of the number of different scenarios that are favourable to each contender. Tsurugidake may be massively overvalued; I'm assuming that he would be first in line for promotion among Ms3e Tsurugidake 4-3 Ms5e Sadanoumi 5-2 Ms6e Takanoyama 6-1 which is a situation on which several scenarios turn, but that's just an educated guess. I suspect if that set of results occurs, the most likely outcome is actually that all three get stuck in makushita and some juryo rikishi will get lucky instead. There are some other dicey assumptions, but those all have minor effects. All scenarios in which Takanoyama gets promoted require him to finish 6-1, which BTW is something he has never done before in makushita. (And even more trivial, of course the 50% of outcomes in which Masuraumi gets promoted are those in which he wins tomorrow to finish 4-3.) Great work! It's an interesting scenarios. Unfortunatelly Takanoyama is too low ranked for a promotion but with a 6-1 can change the panorama... (Applauding...) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ilovesumo 12 Posted May 22, 2010 At least for Takunishiki I can say that he was stopped by an injury. Went there often and he didn't do much Keiko in those days. Same happened to fellow Chiganouran Masuhikari. Both can make it if healthy. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 19,150 Posted May 22, 2010 I'd love it if Takanoyama made juryo this time, but I'd be even happier if he stayed there for awhile. So if he doesn't make it this time -- meh. If he's gonna have any staying power as a sekitori at all, he ought to be able to manage consecutive makushita KKs without any problem. I suspect when guys have grinded it out for as long as Takanoyama has and are as old as he is, staying power isn't exactly the first thing on their minds and they'd just like to make it to juryo at least once. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
