Sign in to follow this  
Senpai

Promotion/Demotion Zone vol. 2

Recommended Posts

Better late then never. We have yet again reached the point where people are thinking about who's going up and who's falling down.

So, we have got to the end of 14th day of the Aki basho which has offered us one ginboshi, powerless Chiyo, top-form Bart and not so convincing Hak. Unlike from Nagoya Kotooshu has had a weak basho and Asa has shined altough not like in his prime. Last day will propably give us a big kettei-sen show. Makuuchi play-off between Asa and Hak if younger yokozuna can win his fellow-countryman on last day. Major clash in juryo if Tamawashi will lose tomorrow. And not to forget the all-foreigner kettei-sen in makushita between Gagamaru and Kaisei. All that in mind we can say that it has been a pretty eventful and intresting basho.

But let's give a look to others who are fighting for being promoted and those who are in the brink of demotion.

Promotion to Juryo

In top makushita we had all rikishi capable to achieve promotion. Amongst them lot of ex-juryos and sumo-hopefuls who still haven't made the next big step. But having so many good rikishi in close range means that there won't be enough wins for all of them. Suprisingly after day 12 only handful of them had fallen off the promotion wagon. Notably Fukao, Takekabuto and Kanbayashi.

After today we can congratulate only 1 of them and even that isn't 100% sure.

  • Ms1e Kotoyutaka 4-3 who made a big step forward on day 12 and raised his chances by winning Tokushino
  • Ms1w Sokokurai 3-3 who still has to fight against Sotairyu in juryo to get his KK altough it might still not be enough and we'll see a last bashos reply
  • Ms2w Miyamoto 5-2 who might got half-way towards promotion today beating Sotairyu in possible direct exchange bout
  • Ms10e Gagamaru 7-0 who finished with 7-0 result second time in his career (and possible second yusho) and should give him the promotion that he missed out in march this year

Couple of days ago there were more rikishi fighting for promotion but as there will be maximum of 3 demotions then Takanoyama was tshuridashied out of the race by Kitazakura, Kaonishiki losing to Matsutani today and finishing with 3-4 and I believe that Miyamotos win today pushed Surugatsukasa (even with win tomorrow; 5-2 at the moment), Ryuho (5-2), Nakanokuni (4-2 at the moment) and Hoshihikari (3-3 at the moment) overboard also.

Demotion to Makushita

Already in the start of the second week we could see that there will be shortage of demotees (not that it would be a bad thing but neither is it good I believe). Only Tokushino, Sotairyu and Hoshikaze were showing bad sumo in lower part of juryo but in second week they started to fight for keeping the paycheck. Hoshikaze has almost managed to achieve it (customary it would already be enough to secure the spot with 6 wins under the belly in E12 but it might not be enough this time) but has to win his last bout tomorrow to secure it Sotairyu have to win his last also or just hope that his rank will protect him from dropping out. Tokushino in other hand is in the brink of demotion and if usually the 6th win would save him then in Aki 2009 it won't be enough as Gagamaru needs a spot.

So, we can say that nothing is clear yet altough maximum of 3 demotions and minimum of 0 (but I would be really suprised if they would not make at least one spot open for makushita promotee) is a fact.

  • J12w Tokushinho 5-9 who couldn't make a real expression in juryo is first to fall
  • J12e Hoshikaze 6-8 who has to win the last bout tomorrow to secure his place in juryo - propably!
  • J10w Sotairyu 5-9 who had a very weak first week but has managed to get some wins now

Promotion to Makuuchi

In promotion zone to makuuchi we have 3 (no more and no less) clear candidates who all wanna get back to makuuchi.

  • J1e Tamawashi 10-4 has already secured his promotion replacing Tochinonada
  • J2e Kimurayama 9-5 has propably also earned his ticket to makuuchi replacing Futeno but can lose it if Yamamotoyama wins and he loses tomorrow while Masatsukasa clinches KK
  • J2w Yamamotoyama 9-5 who has the weakest hand if we would play poker and has to hope that Kimurayama won't get suitable river or Masatsukasa will fold

Demotion to Juryo

We have 2 sure demotees. Will there be 3? Well that we are going to see tomorrow when Masatsukasa is fighting against Shimotori to make his last effort to save himself.

  • M16e Masatsukasa 7-7 sure demotion if loses tomorrow
  • M15w Futeno 5-9 sure demotion after heartless tournament
  • M12w Tochinonada 3-11 sure demotion

Only question I have is what happens when Tamaasuka will lose his last match and Masatsukasa wins. Will Tamaasuka be in danger then or is he high enough?

Sanyaku

Before todays matches there was question in the air what happens if both Kisenosato and Kotoshogiku would manage to get KK? Propably we would have seen 3 sekiwake next basho as I don't think that they could deny Baruto place amongst sekiwake. But after Kotoshogikus loss today we don't have this question but have bunch of others; will Aminishiki save his status and raise to sekiwake after 2-7 start this basho?; will Kisenosato win tomorrow against Baruto and save his sekiwake east spot?; will Kakuryu make it to sekiwake?; will Kotomitsuki give Kaio that last win?; will Chiyotaikai make it back with getting KK in Kyushu?

All the best to You all and I hope that I will be back with the same subject in Hatsu!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very comprehensive summary. (Neener, neener...) I do have to take issue with one thing:

(customary it would already be enough to secure the spot with 6 wins under the belly in E12 ... Tokushino in other hand is in the brink of demotion and if usually the 6th win would save him ...

That's just wrong, I'm afraid.

Rk

Rikishi

Rec

Best

Worst

Own

Ms1e Kotoyutaka

4-3

2nd

2nd

2nd

Ms1w Sokokurai

3-3

3rd

MK

3rd

Ms2w Miyamoto

5-2

3rd

5th

5th

Ms3e Hoshihikari

3-3

5th

MK

6th

Ms4e Surugatsukasa

5-1

3rd

5th

4th

Ms10e Gagamaru

7-0

1st

1st

1st

Of course, the issue is that while (in my estimation) three rikishi can technically still become 3rd in the queue, opening three spots requires wins by both Sokokurai and Surugatsukasa, in which case it should be Sokokurai grabbing that third spot, at least by the recent practice of giving significant preference to rikishi ranked Ms1w.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And I would like to add that Shimotori really isn't safe with 3 wins. If Masatsukasa wins tomorrow then Shimotori will have to make room for the third juryo promotee.

Edit: Oh yes, and Tamaasuka certainly is even going ahead of Shimotori if he loses tomorrow, he is clearly too low to stay with 5 wins.

Edited by Doitsuyama

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Promotion/Demotion between Makushita and Juryo

After today I would say that Hoshikaze's win over Surugatsukasa and 7-8 record made only 2 spots open for makushita promotees. For Sokokurai it's d

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Promotion/Demotion between Juryo and Makuuchi

Todays bouts gave us lot of answers. Some rikishis managed to save themselves and other had to aknowledge their defeat to fate. Kokkai who struggled in low-maegashira ended basho with a third consecutive win to make it 8-7. Toyohibiki secured his position by taking his 6th win against Kasugao. Shimotori saved his makuuchi status sending Masatsukasa packing. Mokonami also secured his position by taking care of our ginboshi winner Shotenro pushing him even further down the ranks with only 2 wins. M12wTamaasuka in other hand has to wait for a while but I think that his 6th win today is enough to help him drop only as far as M16e as replacing him with J5 Hakuba with 9-6 looks pretty big stretch for me. Last time it has happened was 6 years ago and lot of high ranked juryo rikishi with high results and maegashira 15w the lowest rank.

  • J1e Tamawashi 11-4 who won Juryo yusho will replace M15w Futeno 5-10 who was expected to gambarize in low-maegashira but failed to do so.
  • J2e Kimurayama 9-6 will replace M12w Tochinonada 4-11 who ended basho with a win over Tosayutaka.
  • J2w Yamamotoyama 9-6 will replace M16e Masatsukasa 7-8 who had after a 6-2 start on first week a catastrophic second week with only 1 win.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sanyaku

1) Aminishiki couldn't save his position and lost to Kakuryu after a long slap-fest.

2) Kisenosato also couldn't save his spot but should manage to snatch komusubi west spot ahead of Takekaze.

3) Kotoshogiku lost a slim chance as he had for dropping only to komusubi if he had ended basho with 7-8 and will instead drop to maegashira 1 to share it with Takekaze.

4) Kakuryu made it to sekiwake again beating Aminishiki on senshuraku.

5) Baruto will be once again sekiwake east, place where he belongs. Will he continue his run for ozekihood?.

6) Kotomitsuki handed Kaio much needed win as predicted.

7) Will Chiyotaikai make it back with getting KK in Kyushu? We'll see soon enough.

8) Goeido took back what belong to him and will be back as komusubi in Kyushu.

Good luck to all and I'll try to back in Kyushu hoping that my summaries are welcome!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this