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Senpai

Promotion/Demotion Zone

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After a long absence I'll try to come back with a subject I have wrote many times before.

So, we have got to the end of 14th day of the Nagoya basho with lots of intresting bouts, some suprising wins and some not so good losses behind us. Hakuho on his way for his 11th championship title being chased by suprisingly well-perfoming Kotooshu. LAst day will show if there is kettei-sen needed or not. Juryo already won by veteran Wakanosato and makushita waiting for a last day big play-off involving 8 rikishi. All that in mind we can't say it is or has been a boring basho.

But let's leave the yusho race aside and give a look to others who are fighting for being promoted and those who are in the brink of demotion.

Promotion to Juryo

In makushita we had a lots of promising not so young and not so new rikishi in the top of the banzuke. Amongst them georgian Gagamaru, two chinamen Nakanokuni and Sokokurai, Fukuoka (former Okinoumi), mongol Hoshikaze, heavy-weight Tokushinho and others. After day 11 only handful of them had still a chance for promotion.

After today we can congratulate 4 of them.

  • Ms1w Sotairyu 6-1 who secured his promotion already days ago will have highest rank amongst promotees after steady raise in makushita ranks
  • Ms1e Sagatsukasa 4-2 who still has one match to fight against Toyozakura but whatever the result is going to be he can already congratulate himself for returning back to juryo after last bashos misfortune
  • Ms2e Hoshikaze 4-3 who got his promotion on day 12th in direct exchange bout with a uwatenage win against another mongol Hoshihikari
  • Ms2w Tokushinho 4-3 could breath easy after Dejimas retirement announcement and will be 4th promotion from makushita

Before I saw tomorrows torikumi I thought that there is only one slot still in game and that would give us a exchange bout in the last day between Kotoyutaka and Ms4e Fukuoka but seems that torikumi makers think that Ms4w Sokokurai is worth a try and put him against Daishoumi. Altough I still believe that promoting Sokokurai with 4-3 (if he wins tomorrow) from Ms4w would be excessive decision and that they won't do it. But for Fukuoka who was in the lead group after day 7 and saw his promotion hopes fall apart after that with 2 losses can now still hope for a lucky break.

Demotion to Makushita

We didn't have many demotions candidates after mid-basho but those who were, were pretty sure ones. Before the first week ended we could predict that Kotokuni and Kitazakura will fight against demotion and soon Hoshihikari joined the unlucky group. Most of their wins came on week 1. Kotoyutaka had a weak start on second week and also was threathened with demotion. Sakaizawa who missed the first week was fighting for his place starting with 6 losses already under the belly.

Today we can say that J8e Sakaizawa won the battle by beating Wakatenro today with a decent yorikiri win altough still in zone, J14w Kotoyutaka can secure his position if he can take the third consecutive win tomorrow against Sokokurai and finish with 8-7 record.

Sadly next three gentleman are already secured their demotion.

  • J14e Kotokuni 1-13 who got his only win this far on day 1
  • J13w Kitazakura 3-11 who will go back to makushita and start thinking about retirement after another disasterous basho in juryo
  • J13e Hoshihikari 4-10 who started basho well but then just started to fade away (5th consecutive make-koshi in juryo)

Promotion to Makuuchi

In promotion zone to makuuchi we have let's say 4 rikishi with Wakanosato, Hokutoriki, Tamaasuka and Masatsukasa who all wanna get back to where they hopefully belong. I would say that only J3e Masatsukasa will have to wait till tomorrow or even till the new banzuke will be released to see if he'll be back in business. I'd say 80/20 if he wins tomorrow and Tamawashi loses; 10/90 if he wins and Tamawashi also wins; no way if he will lose to Futeno on senshuraku.

  • J6w Wakanosato 13-1 has already secured his promotion replacing Wakakoyu
  • J1w Tamaasuka 10-4 has also earned his ticket to makuuchi for a second time in his career after a long struggle in between makushita and juryo
  • J4e Hokutoriki 11-3 who started basho well and was on the sure road to makuuchi must now not only hope for his strenght but also hope for Tamawashi to lose and banzuke makers to think that 4-11 result from maegashira 11 ranks is enough to demote rikishi to juryo, but I would give him 90/10 propability for promotion

Demotion to Juryo

We have 2 sure facts. Firstly we know that already 3-4 days ago there were 2 sure demotions. Secondly that there are two rikishi in the maegashira 11 rank that have awful records, both have 4-10 and tomorrow one of them will have 4-11 and the other one might have 4-11 record. I would say one of them will be surely demoted and the other one will be spared. I'll give it a 30/70 chance that neither of them will be demoted or both will be demoted. But that's just me and I have made a false conclusion before!

  • M16e Wakakoyu 4-10 sure demotion
  • M13w Dejima 2-2-10 has announced his retirement after getting make-koshi and result that would had surely demote him to juryo
  • M11e Yamamotoyama 4-3-7 and will end this tournament with 4-4-7 record, had a decent first week without a hint that he will end in demotion zone but 3 consecutive losses and injury brought us here. If Tamawashi loses tomorrow I'd say Yamamotoyama will drop to the end of makuuchi but if Tamawashi wins then he will be replaced by Hokutoriki. Even if Tamawashi loses he can't be sure.
  • M11w Tamawashi 4-10 record would be demotion worth but he can take his 5th win tomorrow and parry the demotion but it will still be a lucky strike if he stays

Futeno who was also in the zone but made his day by grabbing a 5th win from Tamawashi today.

Sanyaku

With both Kakuryu and Kyokutenho having 9 losses already we have only two things to argue about - that is who will get east and who will get west komusubi slot Baruto or Aminishiki and how big is the possibility that if Bart wins Kotoshogiku on last day one of them (Baruto or Aminishiki) will be ahead of Kotoshogiku in Aki banzuke?

All the best to You all and I hope that I will be back with the same subject before 12th day of Aki!

Edited by Senpai

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[*]M13w Dejima 2-2-10 has announced his retirement after getting make-koshi and result that would surely demote him to juryo

He will not be on the Banzuke (I am not worthy...)

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I don't know how aggressive they currently are in demoting juryo rikishi who technically missed the in/out line, so I'm a bit worried that Toyozakura could find himself in makushita if he's the only juryo rikishi among the three exchangers to lose tomorrow. Fukuoka would only be 4-3 at Ms4e in that case, of course...perhaps a bit too little for a 5th exchange even if there's a borderline free spot. Hmm. (I am not worthy...)

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I don't know how aggressive they currently are in demoting juryo rikishi who technically missed the in/out line, so I'm a bit worried that Toyozakura could find himself in makushita if he's the only juryo rikishi among the three exchangers to lose tomorrow. Fukuoka would only be 4-3 at Ms4e in that case, of course...perhaps a bit too little for a 5th exchange even if there's a borderline free spot. Hmm. (I am not worthy...)

I am more worried about Daishoumi not mentioned at all among the demotion candidates. He is in the same boat as Toyozakura but even half a rank lower.

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I am more worried about Daishoumi not mentioned at all among the demotion candidates. He is in the same boat as Toyozakura but even half a rank lower.

I figured that was implicit in Senpai's mention of him as part of the cross-division bouts. But yeah, any scenario where Daishoumi loses and Kotoyutaka wins is probably quite detrimental to the former's continued juryo membership...perhaps even if they both lose and the banzuke makers are feeling feisty and promoting six guys. Sokokurai has been a high-makushita presence for so long now that one has to wonder if they might offer him a little break. Anyway, my mention of Toyozakura was more out of personal interest. (I am not worthy...)

And I'll get to update the collegiate sekitori list next Wednesday again, yay.

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Even tough Sokokurai won against Kotoyutaka we can now lock the juryo promotion/demotion zone (without considering possible retirements we don't know about at the moment) without Sokokurai as both Daishoumi and Toyozakura reached 7-8 record today giving both Sagatsukasa and Fukuoka their 4th losses.

But thanks for Sokokurais win and Dejimas retirement - Fukuoka is the lucky loser and will still get the promotion with 4-3 from Ms4e.

Hoshihikari, Kitazakura, Kotokuni and Kotoyutaka will drop to makushita.

Sagatsukasa, Sotairyu, Hoshikaze, Tokushinho and Fukuoka will raise to juryo.

Edited by Senpai

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Altough The Zone between makuuchi and juryo was a bit complicated I'd say that we can lock it up too. Even tough Masatsukasa won Futeno I don't think it will give him promotion as Tamawashi took easy win against Hokutoriki and ended the tournament with 5-10 record and Futeno should be high enough to have falling room. With Tamawashi winning his 5th I think that he will hold his makuuchi rank and drops Yamamotoyama out of makuuchi as even tough Hokutoriki lost today and ends with 11-4 it should be enough to get ticket to makuuchi.

Dejima's retirement and Wakakoyu and Yamamotoyama dropping to juryo will give us three empty spots that will be filled with Wakanosato, Tamaasuka and Hokutoriki.

PS. I'd give 1,99% propability that 1) they won't drop neither Yamamotoyama or Tamawashi and leave Hokutoriki into juryo with his 11-4 record. It's a long shot but still a possibility; 0,01% propability that 2) they will drop both Yamamotoyama and Tamawashi or Futeno and raise Masatsukasa along with Hokutoriki.

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I think I'll take those 10000:1 odds on a Tamawashi/Masatsukasa exchange. (Holiday feeling...)

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I think I'll take those 10000:1 odds on a Tamawashi/Masatsukasa exchange. :-|

Not sure I will take them to, Goshdarnit, The Bank (GTB) but I would rewrite them as a pure 1:1 otherwise known as 50% ?

As for your other long-shot of keeping YMY in Makuuchi, you could make it quite a bit longer. He is never going to remain with that record.

2 years ago I would have loosely agreed with your percentages. But somewhere in the last 12 basho there has been a steady push towards heavier demotions. Maybe even a definite point of departure when Takanohana became prominent in decision-making??? Anyway, not only do we see less sympathy i.e. under-demotions, we are even seeing "over-demotion" from the mathematical base formula. Particularly when there seem to be alternatives available which would make these deviations avoidable.

While it is possible that randomness is the culprit (naturally forced decisions will always favor a promotee over a demotee), my gut tells me we have seen a sea-change in banzuke making committee.

I see both YMY and Tie-my-mawashi heading South.

Edited by kaiguma

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But who do you favour at the SW slot - Bart or Giku?

Who me? Bart will never be SW in Aki, notinamillionyearsweshallsee*

*of course that is from Moti

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