Doitsuyama 1,173 Posted November 23, 2003 Tochiazuma won the yusho decider against Asashoryu, using his own style, deflecting all attacks while slowly pushing the opponent out. The Ozeki bout between Kaio and Chiyotaikai also was a very good one with Kaio winning in the end at looking like he'd need at least a month of rest now. Dejima missed out on the opprtunity to score a jun-yusho losing to Tamanoshima. Wakanosato lost, so two Sekiwake are free now. I'd say Tosanoumi and Tamanoshima will have them, with Tochinonada joining Wakanosato as Komusubi. Shin-Makuuchi Toyozakura lost his last bout and with 6-9 likely will go down again, or not, as the Maegashira ranks probably will be extended to M17e next basho. Sure demotions are Tamarikido and Otsukasa. Kokkai won his last bout to finish his Juryo career with a spectacular 14-1 yusho. There will be two or three more promotions, only Ushiomaru is a sure thing. Kitazakura, Asanowaka and Kaiho look like evenly matched for a place in Makuuchi. -- Doitsuyama Makuuchi yusho arasoi Two losses Three losses Four losses Five losses Six losses ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- Tochiazuma Asashoryu Dejima Chiyotaikai Musoyama Kaio Toki Tosanoumi Takekaze Tamanoshima Yotsukasa Hokutoriki Day 15 Juryo J10w Dewanofuji (4-11) yoritaoshi Ms6w Hamanishiki (4-3) Ms6e Tochifudo (5-2) oshitaoshi J10e Senshuyama (4-11) J7w Kasugao (9-6) yorikiri J8e Juzan (4-11) J7e Futeno (8-7) yorikiri J6w Kaido (5-10) J6e Chiyotenzan (8-7) oshidashi J12w Bushuyama (7-8) J4w Hayateumi (9-6) yorikiri J9e Masutsuyoshi (6-9) J4e Ushiomaru (11-4) oshidashi J5w Harunoyama (8-7) J3w Kobo (8-7) uwatenage J12e Nakao (7-8) J11w Oikari (11-4) hikiotoshi J3e Asanowaka (9-6) J2w Kokkai (14-1) oshidashi J9w Takanotsuru (8-7) J11e Tochinohana (8-7) hikiotoshi J2e Wakanoyama (4-11) J13e Towanoyama (9-6) hatakikomi J1e Kaiho (8-7) Makuuchi M13e Tamakasuga (6-9) yorikiri J5e Kitazakura (10-5) M12w Takanowaka (7-8) hikiotoshi M14e Toyozakura (6-9) M11w Takekaze (9-6) oshidashi M13w Otsukasa (5-10) M10e Jumonji (8-7) yorikiri M11e Wakatoba (7-8) M8w Kakizoe (8-7) okuridashi M9e Kasuganishiki (8-7) M9w Shimotori (8-7) uwatenage M8e Buyuzan (4-11) M6w Tokitsuumi (8-7) yorikiri M7w Kotoryu (7-8) M15w Yotsukasa (9-6) oshidashi M5w Kyokushuzan (8-7) M4e Miyabiyama (6-9) oshidashi M10w Tochisakae (7-8) M3w Tamanoshima (10-5) hatakikomi M14w Dejima (11-4) M2e Toki (9-6) hikiotoshi M7e Hokutoriki (10-5) M1w Kotomitsuki (6-9) yorikiri M6e Kinkaiyama (6-9) M2w Tosanoumi (10-5) sukuinage M1e Tochinonada (8-7) K1w Iwakiyama (6-9) oshidashi M5e Takanonami (5-10) M3e Aminishiki (5-10) oshidashi K1e Takamisakari (5-10) S1w Kyokutenho (4-11) hatakikomi M4w Asasekiryu (3-12) O2w Musoyama (9-6) kotenage S1e Wakanosato (7-8) O2e Kaio (10-5) oshitaoshi O1e Chiyotaikai (10-5) O1w Tochiazuma (13-2) oshidashi Y1e Asashoryu (12-3) List of Yusho Jonokuchi Sokokurai Jonidan Fukutsukasa Sandanme Yakigaya Makushita Daimanazuru (2nd) Juryo Kokkai (1st) Makuuchi Tochiazuma (2nd) List of Sansho Shukun-sho: Tochinonada (2nd), Tosanoumi (7th) Kanto-sho: Tamanoshima (3rd) Gino-sho: not awarded Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,674 Posted November 23, 2003 (edited) Kokkai won his last bout to finish his Juryo career with a spectacular 14-1 yusho. There will be two or three more promotions, only Ushiomaru is a sure thing. Kitazakura, Asanowaka and Kaiho look like evenly matched for a place in Makuuchi. Probably all of them, due to Maru's retirement and the division expansion opening up 3 slots in addition to the two definite demotions... Edited November 23, 2003 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kotoseiya Yuichi 3 Posted November 23, 2003 I'd say Tosanoumi and Tamanoshima will have them, with Tochinonada joining Wakanosato as Komusubi. Methinks Wakanosato might as well drop to nishi sekiwake. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yubiquitoyama 4 Posted November 23, 2003 I'd say Tosanoumi and Tamanoshima will have them, with Tochinonada joining Wakanosato as Komusubi. Methinks Wakanosato might as well drop to nishi sekiwake. No, that is not likely. I think I checked this a few months ago coming to the conclusion that no Sekiwake since at least the early 50s has stayed Sekiwake depsite make-koshi, despite plenty of opportunities. Don't quote me yet though, since I haven't been able to check... I'll get back later... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kashunowaka 300 Posted November 23, 2003 I'd say Tosanoumi and Tamanoshima will have them, with Tochinonada joining Wakanosato as Komusubi. Methinks Wakanosato might as well drop to nishi sekiwake. No, that is not likely. I think I checked this a few months ago coming to the conclusion that no Sekiwake since at least the early 50s has stayed Sekiwake depsite make-koshi, despite plenty of opportunities. Don't quote me yet though, since I haven't been able to check... I'll get back later... It feels a little strange correcting Yubiquitoyama-zeki about these matters, so I hope I am not mistaken here ... ... but I have found three such cases in my data, which go back to 1973. <table border="1"> <tbody><tr><th rowspan="2">Rikishi</th> <th colspan="3">1</th> <th colspan="3">2</th> </tr><tr> <tr><td>Tochiakagi</td> <td>5/79</td><td>SE</td><td>7-8</td><td>7/79</td><td>SW</td><td>9-6</td> </tr><tr><td>Dewanohana</td> <td>7/83</td><td>SE</td><td>7-8</td><td>9/83</td><td>SW</td><td>3-12</td> </tr><tr><td>Tochiazuma</td> <td>11/97</td><td>S1E</td><td>7-8</td><td>1/98</td><td>SW</td><td>11-4J</td> </tr></tbody></table> Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,674 Posted November 23, 2003 (edited) Rikishi 1 2 Tochiazuma 11/97 S1E 7-8 1/98 SW 11-4J As far as this case goes, all other Sekiwake and Komusubi also went make-koshi there (in addition to Tochiazuma's 7-8 at S1e), and the highest - well, the only - candidate challenging for the second Sekiwake slot was Kaio at M3w with 8-7. In that context it's not a huge surprise they decided to demote Azuma to Sekiwake West instead of Komusubi East. As Yubi said, it's not very likely that anything like that will happen this time, mainly because there are too many sanyaku candidates this time, rather than too few. It's actually more likely that Sato might be pushed all the way down to M1e, although I don't really think that will happen either. Edit: While we're on the subject, I tried to find prior examples for the Nada/Toki situation (M1e 8-7, M2e 9-6) in order to figure out what the NSK might do about that. Unfortunately, there are none, at least not between 1980 and today. The closest I've found is Natsu 1992, in which it was M1w 8-7, M2w 9-6, and both ended up as Komusubi, with the 9-6'er taking a higher slot. However, those guys were the 3rd and 4th Komusubi (and thus both expendable), not the 2nd and 3rd komusubi as we're faced with this time... Edited November 23, 2003 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kotoseiya Yuichi 3 Posted November 23, 2003 I will take the risk. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kashunowaka 300 Posted November 23, 2003 As Yubi said, it's not very likely that anything like that will happen this time, mainly because there are too many sanyaku candidates this time, rather than too few. It's actually more likely that Sato might be pushed all the way down to M1e, although I don't really think that will happen either. I agree that it is unlikely that Wakanosato will stay as sekiwake, because there are plenty of good candidates this time. But the rest is a mess (not to Kotoseiya, but to me). It seems that there are five clear candidates for the lower sanyaku slots: Wakanosato, Tochinonada, Toki, Tosanoumi and Tamanoshima. The options are: 1) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot except Wakanosato, who is demoted to M1. 2) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot except Toki, who becomes M1E. 3) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot except Tochinonada, who gets stuck at his M1E position. 4) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot! Alt 1: Sekiwake have been demoted to M1 after 7-8 before, but the only case I found (going back to 1973) where a S1E was demoted was Kotonishiki after Hatsu 1992. So it's a bit harsh. Alt 2: Tochinonada was promoted from M2E to M1E after 9-6 earlier this year. But then Kyokutenho at M1W with 9-6 was clearly before him. In this case, M2E Toki is arguably the one who should get promoted before M1E Tochinonada, so promoting Nada and not Toki would be a bit strange to me. Alt 3: Perhaps Nada won't get promoted this time? I haven't been able to find an example of this since 1973, but I did find a case when both M2E and M2W were stuck at their ranks after 8-7 (Mitoizumi and Misugisato after Aki 1991). And Tosanoumi has been stuck at KE several times, so I don't think it's impossible. Alt 4: If I was the banzuke committee, I would generously make an extra slot! But I am not, and after the debacle last time in GTB, I don't think I will go with this alternative again. I think it's less of a mess now ... have I forgotten anything? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yubiquitoyama 4 Posted November 23, 2003 (edited) I'd say Tosanoumi and Tamanoshima will have them, with Tochinonada joining Wakanosato as Komusubi. Methinks Wakanosato might as well drop to nishi sekiwake. No, that is not likely. I think I checked this a few months ago coming to the conclusion that no Sekiwake since at least the early 50s has stayed Sekiwake depsite make-koshi, despite plenty of opportunities. Don't quote me yet though, since I haven't been able to check... I'll get back later... It feels a little strange correcting Yubiquitoyama-zeki about these matters, so I hope I am not mistaken here ... ... but I have found three such cases in my data, which go back to 1973. Rikishi 1 2 Tochiakagi 5/79 SE 7-8 7/79 SW 9-6 Dewanohana 7/83 SE 7-8 9/83 SW 3-12 Tochiazuma 11/97 S1E 7-8 1/98 SW 11-4J (Punk rocker...) That's what I get for trying to go by memory (In a state of confusion...) I'm sure you are right, and I'll dig up a couple of earlier examples when I get home, just to pretend I didn't do anything wrong... really... eh... (In a state of confusion...) PS. Coming to think of it, it was probably Sekiwake going 6-9 staying at Komusubi I checked... (In a state of confusion...) Edited November 23, 2003 by Yubiquitoyama Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yubiquitoyama 4 Posted November 23, 2003 I will take the risk. I'm sure that in the end I will too. I have good experiences of having followed your gut instinct rather than my own (In a state of confusion...) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yubiquitoyama 4 Posted November 23, 2003 I'd say Tosanoumi and Tamanoshima will have them, with Tochinonada joining Wakanosato as Komusubi. Methinks Wakanosato might as well drop to nishi sekiwake. No, that is not likely. I think I checked this a few months ago coming to the conclusion that no Sekiwake since at least the early 50s has stayed Sekiwake depsite make-koshi, despite plenty of opportunities. Don't quote me yet though, since I haven't been able to check... I'll get back later... It feels a little strange correcting Yubiquitoyama-zeki about these matters, so I hope I am not mistaken here ... ... but I have found three such cases in my data, which go back to 1973. Rikishi 1 2 Tochiakagi 5/79 SE 7-8 7/79 SW 9-6 Dewanohana 7/83 SE 7-8 9/83 SW 3-12 Tochiazuma 11/97 S1E 7-8 1/98 SW 11-4J Yeah, I found these too now. Furthermore, Mitsuneyama went from Se to SeH after a 7-8 basho 1951.05, which concludes the post-war cases. It is actually more common a Sekiwake drops to Maegashira with 7-8 (10 cases during the same time). Especially during a period 1991-1992 there were 5-in-a-row 7-8 Sekiwake who got demoted to Maegashira, although it has not happened since 1992.11 when SeH Akinoshima got demoted to M01e. I suspect that was the standard used for that particular span of time, but was changed to demoting Sekiwake 7-8 to Komusubi. Note that not only has none in that situation been demoted to Maegashira since then, but three of them actually ended up being ranked K2 (or KH when that was still in use). Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yubiquitoyama 4 Posted November 23, 2003 Edit: While we're on the subject, I tried to find prior examples for the Nada/Toki situation (M1e 8-7, M2e 9-6) in order to figure out what the NSK might do about that. Unfortunately, there are none, at least not between 1980 and today. The closest I've found is Natsu 1992, in which it was M1w 8-7, M2w 9-6, and both ended up as Komusubi, with the 9-6'er taking a higher slot. However, those guys were the 3rd and 4th Komusubi (and thus both expendable), not the 2nd and 3rd komusubi as we're faced with this time... It has happened once: 1950.01: Dewanishiki 8-7 M01e, Kamikaze 9-6 M02e ->1950.03: Dewanishiki Kw, Kamikaze M01w For M01w and M02w it has actually only happened the one time you mentioned: 1992.05: Tomoefuji 8-7 M01w, Takanohana 9-6 M02w ->1992.07: Tomoefuji KwH, Takanohana KeH Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,674 Posted November 24, 2003 (edited) The options are:1) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot except Wakanosato, who is demoted to M1. 2) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot except Toki, who becomes M1E. 3) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot except Tochinonada, who gets stuck at his M1E position. 4) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot! Technically, there is a fifth possibility which isn't any less unreasonable* than #2 and #3, namely that Tamanoshima might be the one to lose out and get the M1e slot. (* Less unreasonable for the Kyokai to implement, I mean, not unreasonable for you to suggest it. Just wanted to clarify that. :-) ) Edited November 24, 2003 by Asashosakari Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yoavoshimaru 0 Posted November 24, 2003 Why is it such a big deal to make a 3rd komusubi slot? I would think it's more important to uphold the meritocracy rules (KK->promotion, MK->demotion)... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kashunowaka 300 Posted November 24, 2003 The options are:1) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot except Wakanosato, who is demoted to M1. 2) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot except Toki, who becomes M1E. 3) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot except Tochinonada, who gets stuck at his M1E position. 4) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot! Technically, there is a fifth possibility which isn't any less unreasonable* than #2 and #3, namely that Tamanoshima might be the one to lose out and get the M1e slot. (* Less unreasonable for the Kyokai to implement, I mean, not unreasonable for you to suggest it. Just wanted to clarify that. :-) ) I considered that option - don't know why I didn't include it. Here we go: 5) Everyone gets a sanyaku slot except Tamanoshima, who becomes M1E. I found an exact precedent for the M1E 8-7, M3W 10-5 situation: 01/81 M1E Ozutsu 8-7, M3W Kotokaze 10-5 -> 03/81 KE Ozutsu, SW Kotokaze This agrees with my preconception that Tamanoshima should be promoted higher than Tochinonada. Furthermore Toki should pass Nada. But not promoting Nada would be cruel ... I am beginning to think that Wakanosato is the one who will get the short end of the stick. Why is it such a big deal to make a 3rd komusubi slot? I would think it's more important to uphold the meritocracy rules (KK->promotion, MK->demotion)... I don't know - a few years ago they seemed to be rather generous when it came to creating extra slots. For instance, Kotonowaka got an extra komusubi slot after 9-6 as M2E in Aki 1998 - but Nada's 9-6 as M2E in Haru 2003 didn't warrant an extra slot. The meritocracy rules are upheld either way. I have a feeling that the promotions and demotions are often decided on a whim. It is actually more common a Sekiwake drops to Maegashira with 7-8 (10 cases during the same time). I am not quite following you here ... B-) Which time are you referring to? Sekiwake with 7-8 since 1973: 3 -> S 36 -> K 7 -> M1 1 -> M2 (ouch!) I have found the results since 1973 at Chijanofuji's site, BTW. Are there even older results available at your site, Yubiquitoyama? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,674 Posted November 24, 2003 It is actually more common a Sekiwake drops to Maegashira with 7-8 (10 cases during the same time). I am not quite following you here ... :-) Which time are you referring to? I believe Yubi was talking about the post-WWII era. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yubiquitoyama 4 Posted November 24, 2003 (edited) It is actually more common a Sekiwake drops to Maegashira with 7-8 (10 cases during the same time). I am not quite following you here ... :-) Which time are you referring to? Sekiwake with 7-8 since 1973: 3 -> S 36 -> K 7 -> M1 1 -> M2 (ouch!) I have found the results since 1973 at Chijanofuji's site, BTW. Are there even older results available at your site, Yubiquitoyama? As Asashosakari says I have added basically the Post-II era. In reality though, the data is for every basho with 15 matches, which is more exactly: Natsu 1939-Haru 1944, Natsu 1949-today. I have been very sloppy with adding anything to the website of late, I'm afraid... I have used my own Excel file (which is not available on the website right now at least) for the purpose which goes back to the 1760s for top division. B-) Edited November 24, 2003 by Yubiquitoyama Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kashunowaka 300 Posted November 24, 2003 I have used my own Excel file (which is not available on the website right now at least) for the purpose which goes back to the 1760s for top division. B-) :-) (Licking lips...) You don't say? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Zentoryu 154 Posted November 24, 2003 I have used my own Excel file (which is not available on the website right now at least) for the purpose which goes back to the 1760s for top division. B-) You big tease! :-) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kotoseiya Yuichi 3 Posted November 25, 2003 (KK->promotion, MK->demotion)... No. There are only three banzuke rules. 1) Kachikoshi ensures you won't be demoted. It doesn't guarantee promotion. 2) Makekoshi ensures you won't be promoted. It doesn't guarantee demotion. 3) Rikishi with equal records will keep their mutual order. At the very top and the very bottom of the banzuke there admittedly are exceptions to rules 1 & 2. A mild makekoshi at the bottom of jonokuchi might propel you to a higher rank if there are enough retirements to "suck" you upwards. The newcomers will be added below you anyway. Additionally the division size changes can act as potential exceptions, I guess. Someone at the top of makushita might now theoretically end up higher (in absolute terms but certainly not relatively) with a 3-4 as four guys will be taken upwards to juryo anyway. Suppose a Ms1E would score a 3-4 and have good banzuke luck ending at Ms2W*. Then comes the expansion and he suddenly finds himself at J14W despite his makekoshi. :-) * I believe on average he'd end up lower. Well, anyway. Here's my lower sanyaku prediction. Either it's genious or ridiculous as is my wont. S Tosanoumi WakanosatoK1 Tamanoshima TokiK2 Tochinonada Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,674 Posted November 25, 2003 K2 Tochinonada Hmm, that brings up another question...would the 3rd Komusubi be K2e or K2w? The last few times there was only one Yokozuna, the Kyokai wasn't consistent about this at all. (See 1992.03 and 1993.03 and 1994.07 supporting K2w, and 1993.05 and 1993.07 supporting K2e...) Bonus question, what the heck happened in 1997.09 - S2w and K2w? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yubiquitoyama 4 Posted November 25, 2003 S Tosanoumi WakanosatoK1 Tamanoshima TokiK2 Tochinonada This could be an interesting GTB B-) My spontaneous lower sanyaku would be Sw: E:Tosanoumi, W: Tochinonada Ks: E: Tamanoshima, W: Wakanosato But then again, after last basho, I probably should be very quiet about my GTB-choices :-) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Feginowaka 53 Posted November 25, 2003 S Tosanoumi WakanosatoK1 Tamanoshima TokiK2 Tochinonada This could be an interesting GTB B-) My spontaneous lower sanyaku would be Sw: E:Tosanoumi, W: Tochinonada Ks: E: Tamanoshima, W: Wakanosato But then again, after last basho, I probably should be very quiet about my GTB-choices :-) In german we have a saying: "I don't say anything without my lawyer" I take every bet: a) Wakanosato won't stay as Sekiwake (as Kotoseiya thinks) b) Tochinonada won't be promoted to Sekiwake (as Yubi thinks) My sanyaku guess (without investigations) is: Tosanoumi...S...Tamanoshima Toki........K...Tochinonada ............K...Wakanosato Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Guest Vincentoryu Posted November 25, 2003 In german we have a saying: "I don't say anything without my lawyer" I take every bet: a) Wakanosato won't stay as Sekiwake (as Kotoseiya thinks) b) Tochinonada won't be promoted to Sekiwake (as Yubi thinks) My sanyaku guess (without investigations) is: Tosanoumi...S...Tamanoshima Toki........K...Tochinonada ............K...Wakanosato I totally agree with Feginowaka. History has learned that Tochinonada is going to be promoted over Wakanosato. The intai of Musashimaru maybe creates one extra lower sanyaku spot which is exactly what Wakanosato deserves! Are there any clues on what rank Kokkai will make his debut in Makuuch? What is the highest entry in Makuuchi (from Juryo) to date and with what win-loss record? Thanks in advance Vincentoryu Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Kashunowaka 300 Posted November 25, 2003 Are there any clues on what rank Kokkai will make his debut in Makuuch? What is the highest entry in Makuuchi (from Juryo) to date and with what win-loss record? The two highest debutants: Miyabiyama 1/99 J1W 14-1Y -> 3/99 M7E 9-6 Tosanoumi 5/95 J1E 14-1Y -> 7/95 M7W 7-8 But an even higher promotion was: Kotomitsuki 9/00 J4E 14-1Y -> 11/00 M9W 13-2J That was not Mickey's juryo debut, but a re-promotion. So normally I would guess that Kokkai should end up somewhere between M7 and M10. But with the expansion, I don't know ... :-) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
