Hakuho to break Asa's 84-6 record this year?

[Kozaru 0]

The year is now half-finished, and Hakuho has a mere 2 losses in regular matches (he's not doing so well in playoffs). Can he beat Asa's record of 84-6, set in 2005? In that year, Asa had only 1 loss at the end of the May tournament.

My guess is, no. It's a tough one to break, and the rise of a new contender will not help his cause. Asa did it with relatively little competition.

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

He can do it, no doubt. If no (significant) injury is plaguing him, there's nobody who can beat him on a regular basis (Ama? Please.). I'm not saying he WILL do it, only losing 3 more bouts in 3 tournaments is no mean feat, but with the current competition he has a good chance.

[sekihiryu 51]

there's nobody who can beat him on a regular basis (Ama? Please.).

??

1. Asashoryu in their last 6 encounters they are 3-3. A fit Asashoryu is equal to a fit Hakuho.

2. Don't knock Harumafuji his is improving and only getting better - Hakuho has plateau-ed (admittedly a very high plateau) and at this moment in time he will only be caught up.

Like Asashoryu, Haruma and Hakuho are 3-3 in their last six encounters . Hakuho in 13-7 lifetime against Haruma but if you look closely at recent form since Sept 2007: Harumafuji is 7-6 against Hakuho.

Hakuho put 7 unanswered victories against Haruma from their hatsu-kao in March 2004 in Juryo until July 2007. it was

Sekiwake -v- M2, Ozeki -v- Komusubi, Ozeki -v- M6, Ozeki -v- Komusubi, Ozeki -v- Sekiwake and Yokozuna -v- sekiwake.

But since since Sept 2007 the balance is tipped slightly towards Harumafuji, he obviously found a way: nages, 6 of his 7 victories have been throws. So every time you see those two going at it and Hakuho cant get his southpaw grip there is a decent chance that Harumafuji will throw him.

Regular basis?? well the stats over two years point strongly to the fact the Harumafuji will beat him 50% of the time, thats a a regular basis against a Yokozunas in my books.

3.Aminishiki (who ups his ante against Yokozunas) upset him twice in 2008.

Kotooshu, Kotomitsuki and Kisenosato are 3 who at current rates will beat him once a year

Kotooshu had his already that leaves the other two to statistically come up with a win each against Hakuho.

Harumafuji will beat him twice more, Kotomitsuki once, Kisenosato once, Aminishiki once,and Asashoryu once more.

Thats 6 more losses in regulation, he will end up with 82-8. (so my crystal ball says)

14-1

12-3

13-2

once Rikishi work out a consistence defence to Hakuhos left had grip of death, like Harumafuji has done then there is a hope. Don't give Hakuho get that grip and you have an improved chance to beat him.

Edited May 28, 2009 by sekihiryu

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

You're grasping at straws here, conjecturing Ama will beat Hakuho twice in the next three regulation bouts this year. If you only look at the last 10 bouts, Hakuho has a 6-4 edge. If you look closer at the circumstances of Ama's last three victories, you'll also notice one of them was a yusho play-off and the two others were crucial for Ama (bad Ozeki debut, danger of makekoshi, and Ozeki run). You will also notice Hakuho lost them the same way, he gave up (and I'm stressing gave up here) morozashi and fell victim to a shitatenage. I'm not saying Ama can't take him straight on, he certainly can, but at least 2/3 in these last 3 bouts? No way.

Asashoryu is not fit, that's pretty clear. He's still pretty good compared to the rest of the pack, but it was pretty obvious in the last few meetings he doesn't have much to do against Hakuho. In the past year, he only beat Hakuho once, in that "memorable" Hatsu playoff. Sure, he could beat him once, but that would be an upset in my book.

Aminishiki? Get serious.

Kotooshu? Agreed, he could beat him once a year.

Kisenosato? Could be, but he did it once in the last 6 tries.

Kotomitsuki? Don't make me laugh, the guy's old and barely hanging on.

You wanna go mathematical on me? Ok, let's try to compute an expected number of losses, based on the past year's records. Vs. Ama, 3-3 so Ama takes him in 50% of the last 3 bouts of the year, that's 1.5 (and I'm being VERY generous). Vs. Asashoryu, 3-1, Asa takes him in 25% of the last 3, that's 0.75. Vs. Kotooshu, 5-1, 0.5 expected losses. Kisenosato 5-1, another 0.5. Kotomitsuki - 0. That's 3.25 expected losses over the course of the next 3 basho. You do the math.

Anyway, I wasn't saying he'll break it for sure, upsets can happen anytime. I'm only saying he has a good chance if no major injury is plaguing him. Ama might beat him regularly in the future, but not with his current state. A Hakuho giving his all is pretty tough to beat, figured out or not, by anybody. Still, with Ama's current Yokozuna talk, I can see Hakuho helping out once or twice, like he did in the past.

And if you look at Hakuho's last 6 basho, you'll notice he has an amazing 85-5 record. I'd say that makes him a prime candidate to succeed, wouldn't you?

[Asashosakari 19,593]

I enjoyed the notion that (apparently) every major player will find additional ways to neutralize Hakuho's strengths but that Hakuho won't be able to figure out anything to stay ahead of them. Fun stuff.

Edited May 28, 2009 by Asashosakari

[Kozaru 0]

It's going to be fricking hard to lose only 3 matches the rest of the year. Asa is good for one win, Haruma for another... then you've got Kotooshu/Baruto/Goeido good for one between them, and another one to Kisenosato/Aminishiki/Toyonoshima. Even Kakuryu might get one. I'd say there is an excellent chance of a tie, maybe even odds. But breaking it will be a very tall order.

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

Let's just wait and see, huh? (Baruto? Aminishiki? Toyonoshima?) (Clapping wildly...)

[Gusoyama 103]

he gave up (and I'm stressing gave up here) morozashi and fell victim to a shitatenage.

Its things like this that make me stop reading a post.

Edited to add: losing only 3 bouts in the next 3 bashos is unlikely. It doesn't matter WHO will beat him, its that it only has to happen 4 times. Asashoryu lost to the following rikishi in his 84-6 run(records vs asashoryu lifetime in parenthesis):

Tochiazuma(10-15)

Kotooshu(twice)(5-14)

Kokkai(2-12)

Futeno(1-4)

Aminishiki(6-15)

So, to answer your question of "Who?", my answer is "Anyone"

Edited May 28, 2009 by Gusoyama

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

Its things like this that make me stop reading a post.

Then stop reading.

And of course anyone can beat him, it's what they call upsets. But he only lost 5 regulation bouts in the last 6 tournaments, so he has a chance to break the record.

[sekihiryu 51]

This thread is pointless with Sokkenayama in it, s/he can't have a reasonable debate with anyone. There is a word for people like that.

[Gusoyama 103]

And of course anyone can beat him, it's what they call upsets. But he only lost 5 regulation bouts in the last 6 tournaments, so he has a chance to break the record.

Then why put this?

(Baruto? Aminishiki? Toyonoshima?) (Whatever above, it is funny...)

(Shaking head...)

[_the_mind_ 0]

This thread is pointless with Sokkenayama in it, s/he can't have a reasonable debate with anyone. There is a word for people like that.

agreed, any post she/he makes is best skipped because of the

[kaiguma 0]

Let's just wait and see, huh? (Baruto? Aminishiki? Toyonoshima?) (Detective...)

I agree it is very unlikely Baruto will win even one bout against Hakuho in the next 2 years.

Toyonoshima maybe could have one in the next 2 years if he remains in the joi for nearly every basho. But his odds aren't much worse than Goeido's.

But Aminishiki? You must be joking to act like that's a joke. When Aminishiki is on fire, he's just on fire. Sure that's only 25-30%, but good for one win in a calendar year...

[Kozaru 0]

4 losses with 24 regulation matches to go in the year. 2 vs. Asa (I hope), 2 vs. Kotooshu (who is on fire), 2 vs. Haruma (who has his number quite often)..... I don't think it's looking good to break the record. Tie is still up in the air.

[HenryK 38]

Let's just wait and see, huh? (Baruto? Aminishiki? Toyonoshima?) (Applauding...)

I agree it is very unlikely Baruto will win even one bout against Hakuho in the next 2 years.

I think it's pretty likely.

[ryafuji 815]

I still think Hakuho has a good chance to do it. I can see him winning the rest of his matches this basho (although Asashoryu might beat him in a playoff, it's only regulation matches that count) and then going 14-1 in November for a total of 85.

[ryafuji 815]

I still think Hakuho has a good chance to do it. I can see him winning the rest of his matches this basho (although Asashoryu might beat him in a playoff, it's only regulation matches that count) and then going 14-1 in November for a total of 85.

First part's done...

[Kozaru 0]

A 13-2 would be uncharacteristic for Hakuho this year, and a 12-3 even more so. I think it's fairly safe to say that he will at least be sharing Asa's record. Good for him!

[Kintamayama 45,484]

Am I right in saying that Hakuhou is the first rikishi ever to have 5 consecutive bashos with 14 wins minimum?

[Peterao 3]

That's what they said on NHK.

Anyone want to guess whether Hakuho would be happier with 71 wins and 2 yusho, or 65 wins and 5 yusho? Would be hilarious if Hakuho goes on to win 85, only to have Asashoryu win more yusho for the year.

[Kozaru 0]

Anyone want to guess whether Hakuho would be happier with 71 wins and 2 yusho, or 65 wins and 5 yusho?

I know which one would make his wallet happier.

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

86-4

Where art thou now, ye of little faith?