Day 15 results, yusho and sansho

[Kintamayama 44,635]

Also calling rikishi's bad performance a "choker's performance" when the rikishi withdraws due to injury is like calling a F1-driver a choker when he leads the race and the engine blows up.

No it isn't. It's like calling an F1 driver who is very nervous knowing that in order to win the prize he must win the race, consequently losing his concentration, making a foolish mistake,and crashing , the injury in this analogy, being to his car, which is analogous(??) to a rikishi's body. It is a known fact in martial arts that injuries are many times caused by state of mind.

WE SHALL SEE!!

So there!!

[Yoavoshimaru 0]

Very interesting debate.  I tend to agree with the choker comments as defined by Kintamayama-zeki, but I do think jitters are something one can shake and improve with time and experience.  For others, they always choke and stay at their current level or drop down.  Only time will tell   :-)

I think we all agree we want a healthy Musahismaru back in natsu basho, as well as 100% kaio, taikai, and asashoryu.

[Zentoryu 154]

I was reading some old sumo articles and found this great quote from David Shapiro:

Promotion to sumo

[QttP 0]

I agree with the statements that the biggest factor will be Musashimaru's (and Kaio's) continued presence on the dohyo. Chiyo has not really demonstrated yet an ability to defeat either one of them with any consistency.

Neither has Asashoryu, so that _shouldn't_ be the issue.

If one or both step aside, his promotion chances dramatically increase.

While probably true, that should not be an issue too. Let's look at a hypothetical example in which Chiyotaikai manages to win two consecutive yusho (and let's suppose those are not 9-6 8-man playoff yusho). Not to promote him then, just because there was recently another one promoted to yokozuna, and because there are other strong figures present, would be extremely and totally unfair.

Like Yubiquitoyama pointed out, you become Yokozuna by winning two consecutive titles, or by showing a good series of 12+ wins per basho. And like was said many times, often it happens in the absense of other top-rankers. Hence, if the Kyokai is willing to disregard this factor (or at least not make it crucial), they shouldn't also attach one's promotion to the presense of other good/bad yokozuna/ozeki.

As for the argument about Chiyotaikai's worthiness for promotion. His Tsuki/Oshi skill is close to, if not at, Yokozuna-level already. But his Yotsu skill (while improving) is closer to that of a mid to low ranking Maegashira. This is what keeps him from truly contending for that big promotion, especially when the other big guns are still around.

His tsuki/oshi is the best in the game, and when it works well (about 50% of the fights), he is THE most dominant rikishi on the dohyo. To become a Yokozuna, however, you need to win much more than 50% of the time, so the questions are indeed a) what can Taikai do to make his pushes work more consistently against top-level rikishi, and b) what can he do to win matches when they don't work.

I agree that so far he hasn't provided good answers to those. That is why he hasn't been promoted and why most people (including myself, and everyone on this board) have serious doubts that he will.

For the 100th time in this thread, I say "We shall see."

Promotion to sumo

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

I agree with the statements that the biggest factor will be Musashimaru's (and Kaio's) continued presence on the dohyo. Chiyo has not really demonstrated yet an ability to defeat either one of them with any consistency.

Neither has Asashoryu, so that _shouldn't_ be the issue.

That is simply not true. It IS an issue. Chiyotaikai used to beat Kaio and Musashimaru with some regularity, but lately he hasn't been able to. He has only won once in his last 6 attempts against Kaio and twice in his last 8 attempts against Musashimaru. That is definitely worse than Asashoryu who up to his yokozuna promotion won every other match against either of them. Chiyotaikai needs to at least get up to that level, which he isn't at right now.

While probably true, that should not be an issue too. Let's look at a hypothetical example in which Chiyotaikai manages to win two consecutive yusho (and let's suppose those are not 9-6 8-man playoff yusho). Not to promote him then, just because there was recently another one promoted to yokozuna, and because there are other strong figures present, would be extremely and totally unfair.

Yes, and it won't happen, unless he has another weak yusho, as say 12-3 and worse. Then it COULD happen.

Suppose now that another rikishi (most likely Chiyotaikai, or possibly Kaio) does the same thing Shoryu did: takes two yusho. And DOESN'T get the promotion, for any of the reasons the Kyokai can come up with. THAT is something I wouldn't like to see. That WOULD be unfair.

Yes it would be, but it won't happen. It hasn't happened yet, and little points to it happening this time. But a 12-3 yusho is kind of a fluke yusho, and I can see such a situation being a problem for the Kyokai, if someone gets 2 such yusho in a row. It also hasn't occurred yet, so there are no precedences. In the end, it would probably mean promotion anyway, but it does open up for a more subjective interpretation.

It's not too likely that Chiyotaikai will take the yusho in Natsu, but there is a chance. And as long as there is one, he should be given that "chance to get the chance to reach greatness". And in this context, Kitanoumi's idiotic remark that Taikai will not be even considered, regardless of what happens in May, seems really out of place.

Yes, but the Kyokai, including the rijicho say these things all the time, and they never follow in the end what they said in the beginning. It has been the same before pretty much every major promotion of the last few years. I believe it's a tactic. They set very high standards as the ground point, and then if the press and the audience despite that still recognizes the candidate as worthy of Ozeki or Yokozuna, they change their demands. It will probably be the same this time. Therefore the big problem is if Chiyotaikai just gets a 12-3 yusho.

[QttP 0]

That is simply not true. It IS an issue. Chiyotaikai used to beat Kaio and Musashimaru with some regularity, but lately he hasn't been able to. He has only won once in his last 6 attempts against Kaio and twice in his last 8 attempts against Musashimaru. That is definitely worse than Asashoryu who up to his yokozuna promotion won every other match against either of them. Chiyotaikai needs to at least get up to that level, which he isn't at right now.

Hmm... Yes, that makes sense. You are right that a more detailed look at the stats shows that Taikai used to have an edge over Kaio and Maru (he was promoted to Ozeki before Kaio, and before Maru became Yokozuna), but as the two of them got stronger, he seems to have fallen behind. Interesting observation.

[Rijicho 6]

I dropped somewhere. QttP, do you want me to delete some of your messages still although the discussion has continued after them and removing something in between would confuse a reader? You should be able to wipe out your messages as well.

[QttP 0]

I dropped somewhere. QttP, do you want me to delete some of your messages still although the discussion has continued after them and removing something in between would confuse a reader? You should be able to wipe out your messages as well.

Bah, I knew I didn't make myself clear enough. I accidentally double-posted, and edited the first message, asking you to remove it, and leave the second. Never mind, though - it's not like it's disturbing the discussion. However, I may be blind, but I can't see an option to delete my message. Edit - yes, but not delete.

[Yoavoshimaru 0]

As an aside, are there any betting agencies that will give you odds on a specific record for a rikishi in a basho, e.g. 10-1 on Chiyotaikai going 12-3 in natsu basho?   (Laughing...)

What about this question: if Chioytaikai goes 13-2 with losses to Asashoryu and Musashimaru, but a win over Kaio, and wins the yusho because Asashoryu and Musashimaru each have 2 other losses (so a 12-3 record for them), should he get the promotion?  Will he get the promotion in this case?  (Shuold and will are different

(Devilish thought)

)

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

@Yoavoshimaru: To my observation it is NOT important to whom specifically a rikishi lost. The W-L record is what mainly counts.

I can recall only one instance a specific opponent was taken as a reason for a non-promotion: Kotomitsuki's loss to Buyūzan is said to have a major role in his famous non-promotion, because this was such a must-win situation and Buyūzan was considered a must-beat rikishi. So I speculate it is rather the other way around: Losses to "other" opponents actually tend to hurt more for the promotion case than losses to Asashōryū, Kaiō or Musashimaru.

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

@Yoavoshimaru: To my observation it is NOT important to whom specifically a rikishi lost. The W-L record is what mainly counts.

I can recall only one instance a specific opponent was taken as a reason for a non-promotion: Kotomitsuki's loss to Buy

[Rijicho 6]

Bah, I knew I didn't make myself clear enough. I accidentally double-posted, and edited the first message, asking you to remove it, and leave the second. Never mind, though - it's not like it's disturbing the discussion. However, I may be blind, but I can't see an option to delete my message. Edit - yes, but not delete.

That's what I thought you meant but I wanted to be sure. I'll delete that one now.

This time I wasn't clear. (Laughing...) By deleting I meant removing all your text and leaving a blank message. You're naturally correct in assuming the real deletion is available only to the administrators and moderators (the latter of which is still a non-existing species here on this forum).

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

Kotomitsuki's loss to Buy

[Zentoryu 154]

Like Yubiquitoyama pointed out, you become Yokozuna by winning two consecutive titles, or by showing a good series of 12+ wins per basho. And like was said many times, often it happens in the absense of other top-rankers. Hence, if the Kyokai is willing to disregard this factor (or at least not make it crucial), they shouldn't also attach one's promotion to the presense of other good/bad yokozuna/ozeki.

I think I should clarify something here from my comments as I think I may have been misunderstood. When I was contemplating Chiyo's chances at being promoted, I wasn't refering to what he would have to do for the Kyokai to consider promoting him. I was more refering to his chances of actually winning a Yusho with a healthy Kaio and Musashimaru (and Asashoryu) blocking his path. I don't believe he has the ability, at this very moment, to win a Yusho when these rikishi are all present and all healthy, at least not without some luck.

That isn't to say that I don't think he will be promoted if he wins another Yusho in May, regardless of the presence, or lack there of, of top caliber opposition. If he can win two Yusho in a row, he should be promoted, the stength of his opposition shouldn't even be a consideration. (Unless that Yusho was an 11-4 or something weak like that)

[Yoavoshimaru 0]

This time I wasn't clear.

Perhaps we should adopt those pseudo-German language rules someone suggested in another topic? (f instead of ph, no double consonants, etc)   :-0  (Laughing...)

If he can win two Yusho in a row, he should be promoted, the stength of his opposition shouldn't even be a consideration. (Unless that Yusho was an 11-4 or something weak like that)

Even if he was injured the basho before the two that he won?  e.g. 0-0-15, 12-3(Y), 12-3(Y)?