Doitsuyama 1,173 Posted March 27, 2009 Ozeki Kotooshu gave leader Hakuho a good bout, getting the better belt hold after the tachi-ai and driving the yokozuna back to the tawara. The yokozuna still won thanks to a quite powerful uwatenage downing the Bulgarian at the edge. The yusho decision will have to wait until tomorrow at least as Asashoryu also won, beating ozeki Kaio with a yorikiri. Komusubi Goeido secured his kachi-koshi and a very likely sekiwake debut next basho with his fourth consecutive win, beating slumping Tochiozan. Tochiozan isn't the best joi-jin maegashira anymore as Kakuryu quickly got a moro-zashi for an easy win over sekiwake Kisenosato to extend his win streak, going from 2-5 to 8-5 and a likely komusubi debut next basho. Even a direct promotion to sekiwake isn't unlikely for Kakuryu as Kisenosato is make-koshi with this loss while the other sekiwake Baruto won against Kyokutenho and will have to beat Kisenosato and Kotomitsuki to finish with kachi-koshi. Two more ozeki ensured kachi-koshi today as Kotomitsuki and Harumafuji beat Chiyotaikai and Miyabiyama, making all ozeki 8-5 except already make-koshi Chiyotaikai. Asasekiryu made sure of a kachi-koshi too, beating Chiyohakuho with a sound yorikiri, but the two most impressive rikishi below the joi-jin this basho certainly are Homasho who is 10-3 now after a 2-3 start, and Aran at 9-4. The Russian started the basho with a lot of henka, but only a 3-3 record, but since then he gave up the henka tactics making for a much better sumo and a 6-1 in the last week. In juryo Sakaizawa once was a co-leader with the 6-1 start, but lost three consecutive bouts while Wakakoyu marched on to 10-1. Now he is back in the yusho race as he beat Wakakoyu for his third consecutive win and is only win behind now. Toyohibiki already closed in at 10-3 as he beat Mongolian Mokonami while Kitataiki is the other rikishi at 9-4. Day 13 Juryo J14w Kirinowaka (7-6) yorikiri Ms2w Kitazakura (4-3) J14e Yotsuguruma (4-9) yorikiri Ms1e Kasugakuni (2-5) J10e Sakaizawa (9-4) hikiotoshi J11e Wakakoyu (10-3) J11w Daishoumi (8-5) yorikiri J9e Hoshihikari (5-8) J13e Wakatenro (7-6) hikiotoshi J7e Okinoumi (3-10) J12w Shirononami (7-6) yorikiri J6w Kiyoseumi (4-9) J9w Kitataiki (9-4) yorikiri J5w Ushiomaru (6-7) J5e Masatsukasa (8-5) tsukiotoshi J13w Asofuji (8-5) J4w Kaiho (4-9) fusen J12e Otsukasa (1-12) J8w Kotokasuga (6-7) tsukiotoshi J4e Hakuba (5-8) J3w Toyohibiki (10-3) oshidashi J6e Mokonami (7-6) J10w Kyokunankai (7-6) uwatedashinage J3e Kasugao (6-7) J2w Koryu (6-7) hikiotoshi J7w Kasuganishiki (5-8) J2e Tosayutaka (7-6) yorikiri J8e Kotokuni (8-5) Makuuchi M14w Shimotori (6-7) sukuinage J1e Bushuyama (8-5) M11w Aran (9-4) okuridashi M16e Toyozakura (4-9) M11e Asasekiryu (8-5) yorikiri M13e Chiyohakuho (8-5) M12e Kakizoe (6-7) oshidashi M10w Tochinoshin (5-8) M9w Futeno (7-6) yorikiri M15w Kimurayama (6-7) M15e Tosanoumi (4-9) hikiotoshi M9e Dejima (5-8) M7w Takamisakari (6-7) yorikiri M12w Shotenro (7-6) M7e Homasho (10-3) yoritaoshi M14e Tamawashi (7-6) M13w Yamamotoyama (7-6) uwatenage M6w Toyonoshima (7-6) M6e Tamanoshima (7-6) shitatehineri M8w Kokkai (5-8) M8e Tochinonada (6-7) oshidashi M5w Aminishiki (7-6) M10e Iwakiyama (7-6) yorikiri M4w Yoshikaze (6-7) M2e Kotoshogiku (5-8) yorikiri M4e Takekaze (7-6) M1e Hokutoriki (1-12) okuritaoshi M3w Tokitenku (4-9) K1e Goeido (8-5) yorikiri M2w Tochiozan (7-6) M1w Kakuryu (8-5) yorikiri S1w Kisenosato (5-8) S1e Baruto (6-7) yorikiri K1w Kyokutenho (4-9) O3e Kotomitsuki (8-5) oshidashi O1w Chiyotaikai (2-11) O2w Harumafuji (8-5) yorikiri M3e Miyabiyama (4-9) Y1w Hakuho (13-0) uwatenage O1e Kotooshu (8-5) Y1e Asashoryu (11-2) yorikiri O2e Kaio (8-5) Day 14 Juryo J14e Yotsuguruma (4-9) Ms4w Shoketsu (2-4) Ms5e Tamaasuka (5-1) J14w Kirinowaka (7-6) J8e Kotokuni (8-5) J11w Daishoumi (8-5) J7e Okinoumi (3-10) Ms4e Yoshiazuma (5-1) J6e Mokonami (7-6) J13w Asofuji (8-5) J8w Kotokasuga (6-7) J6w Kiyoseumi (4-9) J5e Masatsukasa (8-5) J10w Kyokunankai (7-6) J13e Wakatenro (7-6) J5w Ushiomaru (6-7) J4e Hakuba (5-8) J9e Hoshihikari (5-8) J7w Kasuganishiki (5-8) J4w Kaiho (4-9) J3e Kasugao (6-7) J12w Shirononami (7-6) J2e Tosayutaka (7-6) J11e Wakakoyu (10-3) J9w Kitataiki (9-4) J2w Koryu (6-7) J1e Bushuyama (8-5) J10e Sakaizawa (9-4) Makuuchi J3w Toyohibiki (10-3) M15w Kimurayama (6-7) M11e Asasekiryu (8-5) M11w Aran (9-4) M10e Iwakiyama (7-6) M16e Toyozakura (4-9) M14e Tamawashi (7-6) M9w Futeno (7-6) M8e Tochinonada (6-7) M15e Tosanoumi (4-9) M13w Yamamotoyama (7-6) M8w Kokkai (5-8) M7e Homasho (10-3) M12w Shotenro (7-6) M14w Shimotori (6-7) M7w Takamisakari (6-7) M6e Tamanoshima (7-6) M10w Tochinoshin (5-8) M13e Chiyohakuho (8-5) M6w Toyonoshima (7-6) M12e Kakizoe (6-7) M5w Aminishiki (7-6) M3e Miyabiyama (4-9) M4w Yoshikaze (6-7) M9e Dejima (5-8) M3w Tokitenku (4-9) M1e Hokutoriki (1-12) M1w Kakuryu (8-5) K1e Goeido (8-5) M2e Kotoshogiku (5-8) M2w Tochiozan (7-6) K1w Kyokutenho (4-9) S1e Baruto (6-7) S1w Kisenosato (5-8) O3e Kotomitsuki (8-5) M4e Takekaze (7-6) O2w Harumafuji (8-5) O1w Chiyotaikai (2-11) Y1e Asashoryu (11-2) O1e Kotooshu (8-5) O2e Kaio (8-5) Y1w Hakuho (13-0) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ilovesumo 12 Posted March 27, 2009 (edited) (In jonokuchi...) Is Otsukasa intai? When I read that he gave Kaiho a Fusensho at his position it just looks like that (Holiday feeling...) Edited March 27, 2009 by ilovesumo Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Exil 301 Posted March 27, 2009 :-) Is Otsukasa intai? Might be a shoulder injury? (Showing respect...) Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HenryK 38 Posted March 27, 2009 Kakuryu has a truly impressive basho. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,314 Posted March 27, 2009 Kakuryu has a truly impressive basho. Baruto still has two toughish bouts ahead of him (Kisenosato and Kotmitsuki), so Kakuryu could be sekiwake next basho?!? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Doitsuyama 1,173 Posted March 27, 2009 Even a direct promotion to sekiwake isn't unlikely for Kakuryu as Kisenosato is make-koshi with this loss while the other sekiwake Baruto won against Kyokutenho and will have to beat Kisenosato and Kotomitsuki to finish with kachi-koshi. Kakuryu has a truly impressive basho. Baruto still has two toughish bouts ahead of him (Kisenosato and Kotmitsuki), so Kakuryu could be sekiwake next basho?!? I guess I write too much to be read. I'll give it to you that you used only one line compared to my two lines but you are a bit late... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,314 Posted March 27, 2009 (edited) Even a direct promotion to sekiwake isn't unlikely for Kakuryu as Kisenosato is make-koshi with this loss while the other sekiwake Baruto won against Kyokutenho and will have to beat Kisenosato and Kotomitsuki to finish with kachi-koshi. Kakuryu has a truly impressive basho. Baruto still has two toughish bouts ahead of him (Kisenosato and Kotmitsuki), so Kakuryu could be sekiwake next basho?!? I guess I write too much to be read. I'll give it to you that you used only one line compared to my two lines but you are a bit late... No, I did read what you wrote, perhaps I should have written this.... so Kakuryu could be sekiwake next basho?!? ...or perhaps, ?!?!?!?!? ...or ?!? (Showing respect...) ...as in.... Wow! Kakuryu a 'sekiwake' already! But well done to him - if Baruto's results go his way. (And thank you Doitsuyama for your updates and analyses (Showing respect...) ) Edit: :-) removed from 2 sentences above, as I see Baruto as a 'better' Sekiwake (my apologies to Kakuryu fans.) Edited March 27, 2009 by Jejima Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,786 Posted March 27, 2009 While we're at it, I'd like to mention the (at least theoretical) possibility for Homasho to go straight to sekiwake, while Kakuryu only becomes M1e. (Showing respect...) Assume Kisenosato beats Baruto tomorrow, then beats Tochiozan in the bout that seems to be expected by everyone over at GKA, all the while Homasho wins twice, Kakuryu loses twice, and Baruto wins on senshuraku. (So this won't work if he faces Homasho himself.) Voil Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,314 Posted March 28, 2009 (edited) In the past, it has been possible for a 7-8 East Sekiwake to be moved to the West slot. I think it is quite rare - and checking on Doitsubase, I see that it is. I remember this, because it happened to Tochiazuma in one of the first bashos (November 1997), I watched on NHK when I first arrived in Japan. There were no suitable candidates from lower down. Looking to see for an 8-7 Maegashira to go straight to Sekiwake, I see that is possible to get there from the rank of M4W!!! It happened in September 1987 to Sakahoko. Toryu was promoted to Sekiwake from M4E in March 1984. The following basho, M2E Hoo and M3E Sakahoko (him again!) were both promoted to Sekiwake with 8-7 records for the subsequent basho. The Homasho scenario search shows that both Kotomitsuki and Miyabiyama got to Sekiwake from M7 with 12-3, and that normally a Jun-yusho comes with that basho. But it also shows that you can get promoted to Sekiwake with a 10-5 record at M7W!!!! This happened to Koboyama in November 1983. M7 in general is the lowest point from which you can leap to Sekiwake in one leap - with with two exceptions from the 15-day basho era. Kotomitsuki (again) got there from M9W with a 13-2J in November 2000, but the record 'leaper' was Kiyokuni in January 1964. A 14-1J was what did it from the rank of M13E! (He was preferred to Kitanofuji who in the same basho got a 13-2 record from M10E, and to Miyobudani (8-7 from M4W) who were both 'only' promoted to Komusubi.) Edited March 28, 2009 by Jejima Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
HenryK 38 Posted March 28, 2009 (edited) In the past, it has been possible for a 7-8 East Sekiwake to be moved to the West slot. I think it is quite rare - and checking on Doitsubase, I see that it is. I remember this, because it happened to Tochiazuma in one of the first bashos (November 1997), I watched on NHK when I first arrived in Japan. There were no suitable candidates from lower down. Looking to see for an 8-7 Maegashira to go straight to Sekiwake, I see that is possible to get there from the rank of M4W!!! It happened in September 1987 to Sakahoko. Toryu was promoted to Sekiwake from M4E in March 1984. The following basho, M2E Hoo and M3E Sakahoko (him again!) were both promoted to Sekiwake with 8-7 records for the subsequent basho. The Homasho scenario search shows that both Kotomitsuki and Miyabiyama got to Sekiwake from M7 with 12-3, and that normally a Jun-yusho comes with that basho. But it also shows that you can get promoted to Sekiwake with a 10-5 record at M7W!!!! This happened to Koboyama in November 1983. M7 in general is the lowest point from which you can leap to Sekiwake in one leap - with with two exceptions from the 15-day basho era. Kotomitsuki (again) got there from M9W with a 13-2J in November 2000, but the record 'leaper' was Kiyokuni in January 1964. A 14-1J was what did it from the rank of M13E! (He was preferred to Kitanofuji who in the same basho got a 13-2 record from M10E, and to Miyobudani (8-7 from M4W) who were both 'only' promoted to Komusubi.) Some related stats (taken from another thread): Sekiwake who held rank [X] in the preceeding basho made KK with the following percentages (since 1957): S: 67 K: 64 M1: 53 M2/M3: 30 M4-M16: 36 In a nutshell, Sekiwake coming from well down the banzuke did not tend to do well. At the same time, Sekiwake getting demoted with a 7-8 score made KK in 57 percent of the cases in the next basho. Bottom line: as is the case with any rank below O, the banzuke makers tend to over-promote to S and over-demote from S. To prevent this, promotion to Sekiwake would have to be a bit more difficult -- for example, require K or M1 rank for an S promotion (only exception: yusho winners). In return, a 7-8 Sekiwake could keep the rank more often when there is no obvious promotion candidate. Edited March 28, 2009 by HenryK Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Amanohashidate 0 Posted March 28, 2009 I think they'll take into the account the fact that Kakuryu faced everyone in sanyaku and still managed to finish KK, while the best win Homasho scored was against M3 Tokitenku. It's quite unlikely that Homasho will get a nod ahead of Kakuryu for a sekiwake/komusubi placement. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,314 Posted March 28, 2009 15 rikishi have had a 12-3 record at M7 rank. One was promoted to M2, three were promoted to M1, eight were promoted to Komusubi and three were promoted to Sekiwake. Looking at the last 15 occasions only (because I am lazy), which are since 1992 for a rikishi ranked at M1W with an 8-7 record..... Seven were 'side-shifted' to M1E, seven were promoted to komusubi, and one was promoted to sekiwake. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Asashosakari 18,786 Posted March 28, 2009 M7 in general is the lowest point from which you can leap to Sekiwake in one leap I think you're looking for patterns where none exist - it's simply that you "can leap to sekiwake from X with a Y-Z record if there's no better candidate", where the current maximum/minimum values for X, Y and Z are essentially random. Wait long enough and you'll see more extreme cases like Kotomitsuki's November 2000 promotion, it's just these cases of course get more rare the more extreme they are. But there's sure no particular line (whether at M7 or elsewhere) that differentiates between "unusually high promotion" and "really, really unusually high promotion that we had to drink a lot of sake before we were willing to actually consider it". If it's needed, it'll happen, simple as that. I think they'll take into the account the fact that Kakuryu faced everyone in sanyaku and still managed to finish KK, while the best win Homasho scored was against M3 Tokitenku. It's quite unlikely that Homasho will get a nod ahead of Kakuryu for a sekiwake/komusubi placement. There's always somebody who says that, and it almost always turns out to be wrong unless the lower-win rikishi is already at M1e. Four wins difference between M1w and M7e is the kind of lopsided situation that is perfectly able to trump the rank and schedule differences. Of course it's all academic now because Kakuryu's 9th win definitely puts him ahead of Homasho if the last spot were to be decided between them (which it won't). Though it looks like we might get to play the same game again with Homasho and Tochiozan. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jejima 1,314 Posted March 28, 2009 M7 in general is the lowest point from which you can leap to Sekiwake in one leap I think you're looking for patterns where none exist - it's simply that you "can leap to sekiwake from X with a Y-Z record if there's no better candidate", where the current maximum/minimum values for X, Y and Z are essentially random. Wait long enough and you'll see more extreme cases like Kotomitsuki's November 2000 promotion, it's just these cases of course get more rare the more extreme they are. But there's sure no particular line (whether at M7 or elsewhere) that differentiates between "unusually high promotion" and "really, really unusually high promotion that we had to drink a lot of sake before we were willing to actually consider it". If it's needed, it'll happen, simple as that. I fully agree with you. I should have expressed myself more clearly. But I suppose the odds are fairly high that there will be a better Sekiwake candidate a little higher up than M7, due to the fact that not everybody can have had a terrible basho! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
