Sign in to follow this  
Jejima

Ozeki Back-Scratchers' Club

Recommended Posts

Just in case Osh loses tomorrow, could somebody explain why that still complies with the OBSC? Or would we finally have a proof that it doesn't exist?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No, it is just one bout and anything can happen in it.

On the other hand, If you have 10 similar situations and in 9 of them the the ozeki who needs one win to reach KK wins against an ozeki who already has secured his own KK, then you'll have the case of the OBSC

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I beg to differ. The existence of the OBSC can never been proven, only the non-existence, and for that a single stray bout might suffice.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But sadly this does not disprove the OBSC theory.

Of course, any good conspiracy theory can incorporate any result after the fact...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I beg to differ. The existence of the OBSC can never been proven, only the non-existence, and for that a single stray bout might suffice.

But there are never any stray bouts, because the premises always change when such one occurs, so that it can be explained away. Of course, this is how any conspiracy theory works, so nothing strange with that. But it makes disproving it impossible.

Edited by Yubiquitoyama

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just in case Osh loses tomorrow, could somebody explain why that still complies with the OBSC? Or would we finally have a proof that it doesn't exist?

Ok, rising up to your challenge!

If Osh loses tomorrow to Kaio - I solemnly declare I will never mention 'OBSC' ever again. (Sign of approval...)

Edited by Bilu

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just in case Osh loses tomorrow, could somebody explain why that still complies with the OBSC? Or would we finally have a proof that it doesn't exist?

Ok, rising up to your challenge!

If Osh loses tomorrow to Kaio - I solemnly declare I will never mention 'OBSC' ever again. (Gyoji...)

The same for me. (I am not worthy...)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, I'll say that based on the OBSC theory there is a 90% probability that Osh will win against Kaio. If Kotooshu does win, will it prove that the OBSC is true

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
II) I'm not saying that Chiyotakai could have won against Kaio, but that he doesn't go kyuyo so that he can give free wins. He will stay till the end, or at least until Kotmitsuki.

Then why he didn't do like this in Hatsu 2008? (Gyoji...)

...I'm out of this topic - it's not a discussion, it's just too "yellow".......

What I see is this:

Chiyotakai: (http://sumodb.sumogames.com/Rikishi.aspx?r=8)

1999.03 : 3-8-4 (fusen day 11)

2001.01: 2-2-11 (fusen day 4)

2001.09: 4-5-6 (fusen day 9)

2002.11: 6-3-6 (fusen day 9)

2005.07: 3-6-6 (fusen day 9)

2006.01: 4-4-7 (fusen day 8)

2008.01: 0-8-7 (fusen day 8)

2008.05: 5-10 (no fusen)

2009.03: 2-9 (no fusen yet)

These two last ones are unusual for an ozeki. Kaio never had a makekoshi when remaining on the doyho to the last day. The ozekis that had scores such as 5-10 are ozekis that lost their ranks (such as Dejima and Miyabiyama).

There is an unusual pattern here. Either Takai doesn't care a bit anymore and stays there until the end, either he is going to stay there after loosing ozeki status, either this an effect of the kyujo rule, either he is gaining something out of this. But his staying when already makekoshi is very unusual for an ozeki. (I am not worthy...)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The existence of the OBSC can never been proven, only the non-existence

This is a self-contradicting statement. If you have 2 mutually exclusive propositions for a theory(exist/do not exist) and you are able to prove one of it (with some degree of confidence), then you are able to disprove/prove the complimentary one (I am not worthy...)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bah, I don't know why I even bother with this anymore. Anyway, here goes.

Just because it doesn't happen at one time when it could have happened, it doesn't mean it never happens. The components of any club are individuals, and these will have certain relationships. Kaio might not want to help Kotooshu out for his own reasons (maybe he looked at him the wrong way the day before or flirted with his wife, I dunno), that doesn't disprove one thing. To say that this one occurence will disprove the existence of the whole thing is either naive or dishonest.

Of course the existence of yaocho in general can never be proven, save a written confession from all the involved parties or a recording of an actual transaction taking place, but that doesn't mean it won't happen. Corruption is present in one form or another in all layers of humanity, and sumo's round robin system makes it particularly susceptible to arrangements. Hell, if you think everyone is honest, why don't you leave the door to your house open at night?

I've been over this time and again, and so have others, but the same people come and voice the same old, rusty opinions over and over, every time. Sorry, folks, it's not my fault the sport you love so much isn't all clean and white like your ideals. Tough luck.

P.S. Gus, I'm waiting for you to show up with that tinfoil hat of yours again. It cracks me up every time I see you in it. Too bad you never have anything interesting to say that goes with it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
This is a self-contradicting statement. If you have 2 mutually exclusive propositions for a theory(exist/do not exist) and you are able to prove one of it (with some degree of confidence), then you are able to disprove/prove the complimentary one (I am not worthy...)

Exactly - and there's no contradiction in that. If you are able to prove only one of them, then you have disproven the other. But that doesn't mean that the other can ever been proven.

To put it very simple:

A: Kaio wins -> OBSC prediction wrong -> non-existence of OBSC proven

B: Osh wins -> OBSC prediction correct -> nothing proven at all

I'm sure someone else can put these fundamentals of basic logic in more academic terms.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But sadly this does not disprove the OBSC theory.

Of course, any good conspiracy theory can incorporate any result after the fact...

Oh... My cover is blown... (I am not worthy...)

My prediction for tomorrow's bout using the OSBC theory.....

.....will come tomorrow with my morning coffee. But I think most will know already (Gyoji...)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I've been over this time and again, and so have others, but the same people come and voice the same old, rusty opinions over and over, every time. Sorry, folks, it's not my fault the sport you love so much isn't all clean and white like your ideals. Tough luck.

But neither is it a cesspool of pre-determined bouts, as some people (no, not you) like to envision. I'm only slightly exaggerating if I say that some people are screaming "yaocho!" any time Random Maegashira #1 fails to secure his favourite grip and loses to Random Maegashira #2, even though he obviously had to win, given that he was the totally overwhelming 60/40 favourite beforehand...

(Edit: Or replace those Random Maegashira with Random Meatgrinder if you will, since oddly enough the people who are bleating the loudest about yaocho are often also the ones who barely pay attention to anything below M5.)

Edited by Asashosakari

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Well, I'll say that based on the OBSC theory there is a 90% probability that Osh will win against Kaio.

More like 99% I'd say. It's also extremely likely that Kaio will finish 8-7 on the evidence of his recent performances in the last few days of a tournament.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But neither is it a cesspool of pre-determined bouts, as some people (no, not you) like to envision. I'm only slightly exaggerating if I say that some people are screaming "yaocho!" any time Random Maegashira #1 fails to secure his favourite grip and loses to Random Maegashira #2, even though he obviously had to win, given that he was the totally overwhelming 60/40 favourite beforehand...

I totally agree.

If Osh does defeat Kaio tomorrow, it is not that surprising, whether or not I claim (or others claim) that is part of the OSBC theory (but wait until my morning coffee for that newsflash), as he has a 9-7 lead over him in previoous meetings. If it were (say) 3-10, that could be a different matter, but at 9-7, surely he is already the favourite to win, with or without a conspiracy theory?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
But neither is it a cesspool of pre-determined bouts, as some people (no, not you) like to envision. I'm only slightly exaggerating if I say that some people are screaming "yaocho!" any time Random Maegashira #1 fails to secure his favourite grip and loses to Random Maegashira #2, even though he obviously had to win, given that he was the totally overwhelming 60/40 favourite beforehand...

I totally agree.

If Osh does defeat Kaio tomorrow, it is not that surprising, whether or not I claim (or others claim) that is part of the OSBC theory (but wait until my morning coffee for that newsflash), as he has a 9-7 lead over him in previoous meetings. If it were (say) 3-10, that could be a different matter, but at 9-7, surely he is already the favourite to win, with or without a conspiracy theory?

Yes, that's why a Kaio win tomorrow (and I say this before the match) would certaintly prove me completly wrong. Of course I could say that if they do it they will do it just to prove me wrong ;-) !!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes, that's why a Kaio win tomorrow (and I say this before the match) would certaintly prove me completly wrong. Of course I could say that if they do it they will do it just to prove me wrong ;-) !!!

Well, that is the beauty of conspiracy theories (as Yubi previously mentioned), you can usually/always make any bit of datum fit them.

For example, the odds are on Osh getting his KK no matter what this basho - he does not fully need a win over Kaio to do so (besides he's not kadoban, so there is always next basho to save his ozeki rank, if need be).

If Kaio wins, then a deep conspirator could argue that this was done to throw any person of authority off the trail of the OSBC, in order that future OSBC bouts could go ahead unnoticed.

It is always a win-win situation for conspiracy theorists if they can find an argument - any argument will do ;-)! (Hey! I've already argued that when I predicted a win by Chiyotaikai against Kaio (which I got wrong), that I had really got it right by an earlier statement - and I've also discounted all wrong predictions up-to-now involving Harumafuji ;-))

However, if Kaio does win tomorrow, a realist could point out that at 7-9, with the last 10 bouts evenly split between them, that it isn't that surprising based on the stats - but perhaps realists are less fun than conspirators.....

Now, I wonder which way I will predict tomorrow's bout - the obvious, or the deep conspiracy ;-) I await my morning's caffeine fix to fully decide.... (although my opinion to the OSBC theory is much less valid to the opinion of anyone who is taking it seriously ;-) )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
For example, the odds are on Osh getting his KK no matter what this basho - he does not fully need a win over Kaio to do so (besides he's not kadoban, so there is always next basho to save his ozeki rank, if need be).

Hmm..

If Osh loses to Kaio, and later loses to the two Yokozunas, this leaves him vulnerable, at 7-7.

(I'm sure Osh doesn't expect to win against the Yokozunas - though he might).

The smart OBSC Ozeki goes a long way to avoid Kadoban. Who knows what happens next basho. Maybe he's injured, maybe the other Ozekis can't help...

The OBSC rule states that if one needs the win much more than the other - he'll win.

Osh really needs this one. Kaio doesn't. Osh wins.

But I'll wait patiently to your morning coffee. ;-)

PS

Kaio doesn't give a damn about disproving the theory:

- First, he's not reading this forum ;)

- Second, he can never be caught, assuming the OBSC is not formal in any way (i.e. it's a gentlemen agreement).

- Third, Kaio had so many bad losses the last couple of years, so no loss whatsoever can make him look bad more than already expected of him.

Edited by Bilu

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If Osh does defeat Kaio tomorrow, it is not that surprising, ... surely he is already the favourite to win, with or without a conspiracy theory?

The internet rating system has Kotooshu as .517 favorite which is saying more about Kotooshu than about Kaio... the Bulgarian surely didn't burn up the ratings lately. But it might surprise you to hear that both are still in ozeki rating territory, albeit pretty lowish.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Kotooshu (7-4) vs Kaio (8-3)

This is (of course) the easiest bout so far this basho to predict using the OSBC. However, if the prediction turns out to be true, it does not prove the OSBC - as Doits points out above, their ratings currently have them pretty close to 50:50, so either outcome is almost as likely (on paper at least).

If the prediction turns out to be wrong, it would make a serious dent in the theory, but (as my comment above laid out), it could still be rescued by some creative thinking. It is not quite in the same category as (E.g.) a kadoban Chiyotaikai (7-7) losing to Kotomitsuki (8-6) on senshuraku.

Anyways.....

Kotooshu (East wins...) Kaio

[by the way Doits, do the internet ratings take into account 'motivation' going into a bout. I.e. a rikishi fighting for 'something' (like Osh still needing his KK) has more motivation than one that doesn't?]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Day 13 bouts are out....

Kotomitsuki vs Chiyotaikai. Well, this is a near perfect test for the OSBC.

Kaiomitsuki will not have secured his KK before that bout - and he is currently kadoban.

Chiyotaikai is MK already.

Clearly a win (with or without coffee) for Chiyotaikai (East wins...)

.

.

.

.

not :-S .

The easiest way for 'Taikai to lose this bout, would be if he were to withdraw from the basho before it. But today he will face the MK Miyabiflobmonster - and could actually win that one. If he does win, he can't pull out, can he? I mean, you pull out after a loss, not after a win - or will the Miyabiflobmonster win today? That would be kind of embarrassing for 'Taikai. (2-11-2) But if he does win today, and then loses to Mickey tomorrow, he would already have another match scheduled for day 14 (I guess Harumafuji?), and so would end up with 3-11-1? This also does not look great.

See what I am doing? I am trying to find some wiggle room in advance to keep the OBSC theory going on the off-chance that 'Taikai turns up to fight tomorrow - and actually defeats Mickey.

In reality, if Mickey does win, it does not really prove anything although their head-to-head is 21:16 - or 57% - in favour of Taikai... Hopefully Doits will give the Internet rating for a clearer picture :-).

But if 'Taikai wins, that would blast holes all through the OSBC theory (I think).

Kotomitsuki (East wins...) Chiyotaikai

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems to me that Kotooshu more often than not walks off with the ya (arrows) on senshuraku. I could spend all day speculating what he does with them, but it's clear the guy likes arrows. Arrows are important to him. So any theory of the OBSC should also include an explanation of how the Ozeki are manipulating the system so that Kotooshu is consistently able to appear in the bout immediately following koreyori sanyaku and then win it. It's just not always about

KK you know.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[by the way Doits, do the internet ratings take into account 'motivation' going into a bout. I.e. a rikishi fighting for 'something' (like Osh still needing his KK) has more motivation than one that doesn't?]

Nope. But I could actually make an analysis if this affects bouts and some inclusion in the prediction formula will improve the predictions or not. I'm always open to these things, but there just aren't any parameters in addition to my ratings so far improving predictions consistently.

My last attempt was to add head-to-head records into the prediction, but despite some quite clever manipulations of the head-to-head records (if I may say so) the prediction performance just wouldn't improve significantly, to my own surprise. Without some really tricky manipulations the prediction performance usually even deteriorates WITH the head-to-head included in any way. Only with some additional elements (1. not pure head-to-heads, but compared to ratings; 2. only included when above a threshold; 3. head-to-head gets weighted with time, so bouts long ago aren't as important as bouts in the last basho) deterioration could be avoided, but improvement was so minute, it really wasn't worth the effort.

I'm telling this story only to picture how difficult it is to find any additional parameters to the pure ratings. I could analyse the "motivation" aspect, but honestly I don't really think it will be strong enough to override the pure formula. Actually, in some way I am happy that the pure formula is best - not only does that mean less work for me, but it also a rather big argument for an absence of large-scale yaocho (or at least it proves that yaocho is going on in an unpredictable way).

Now the OBSC formula would be quite strong I suspect, easily overriding the rating formula. Then again, there aren't that many bouts affected to invest any effort to integrate that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let me pour some more fuel to the OBSC theory :-)

I`ll just modify it a little bit:

- Harumafuji is definitely not in the club as he is a fresh ozeki and has to gambaru for some time;

- an ozeki on kadoban is likely to be "helped" by other ozeki;

- an ozeki with 7-7 record in the current basho will win in the senshuraku against an ozeki, who is already KK.

Then I'd say the OBSC was founded sometime in 2008. Here are some facts and figures:

Haru basho 2008:

Chiotaiaki is kadoban. In day 10 he is 6-3 when he faces Kaio. Chiotaikai wins and goes KK in day 12.

Kotomitsuki is 7-7 when he faces Chiotaikai in senshuuraku. Guess what, he wins...

Kaio is 7-2 in day 10 so he can afford himself to lose

Natsu basho 2008:

Osh is kadoban, but he gambarizes and goes on to win the basho.

Kotomitsuki is 7-7 when he faces Kaio in senshuuraku. And guess what, he wins and goes KK again

Kaio is comfortably 8-5 in day 13, so he can afford a loss

Nagoya basho 2008:

Chiotaikai is kadoban. In day 9 he wins to Kaio to become 7-2. In day 11 he wins to Kotomitsuki for 8-4.

Kotomitsuki was comfortably 8-2 when he was facing Chiotaikai.

Aki basho 2008:

Osh is 7-7 in senshuraku when he faces Chiotaikai (who is already KK). Guess what, Osh wins

Kyushuu basho 2008:

Again, Osh is 7-7 in senshuraku when he faces Chiotaikai. Again he wins

Hatsu basho 2009:

Kaio is kadoban and ganbatteru. Wins to Chiotaikai in day 9 for 6-3.

Haru basho 2009:

Kotomitsuki is kadoban. Wins against Kaio for 6-2. I'm expecting him to win against Chiotaikai.

Now for the Kotooshu-Kaio bout in one hour. Kaio is already KK, Osh is one shiroboshi away from it. Even if he doesn't get it today, he'll get it against Chiotaikai. The OBS Club is at full work!

(East wins...) :-S (East wins...) (On the banzuke...)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this