Sekitori-Toto commentary Haru 2009

[Asashosakari 20,287]

As always you're cordially invited to play Sekitori-Toto. The Day 1 torikumi has been released and the entry page is open for your first picks.

New players are always welcome! Please register if you're playing for the first time to set up your country flag and the email address for receiving copies of your selections. (Returning players may also use that link to make changes to their data.) Rules in a nutshell: For all 35 or so sekitori bouts on each day of the basho, pick who you think will be the winner, or choose "X" for a guaranteed half-point. The best 50% of all active players for each day score a win, the other 50% a loss. The player with the most daily wins will earn the yusho, of course. Detailed rules are available on the site.

Good luck to all old and new players! (In a state of confusion...)

Note: The email address for emergency pick submissions if/when the server or database goes down is sekitoto (at) gmx (dot) net and is also prominently listed on the front page (which shouldn't be affected by sumogames.com server outages).

Edited March 22, 2009 by Asashosakari

[Harry 67]

I'm back for more punishment ;)

[Umigame 82]

Just noticed on the results page that the wins/losses are now indicated by the standard shiroboshi and kuroboshi.

This is new, right?

A small but much-appreciated improvement! Thanks!

[Kofuji 0]

You're welcome!

[Asashosakari 20,287]

A mid-basho welcome to the Haru 2009 edition of Sekitori-Toto! :-P Including a few late arrivals there are 138 players in the competition, the most we've had since last year's Haru basho, including two returnees and five newcomers. They're Pandaazuma, Sebunshu and Sukiaki who constitute the newest wave of the Sumotalk invasion force, mysterious rookie Epkl from Italy, and DeRosa, a regular on the Japanese sumo gaming circuit in his first foray into "Western" games. ;-)

In actual competition news: The last unbeaten player already fell on Day 7, so the lead is shared four-way at 7-1 after nakabi. The successful players are Aome (aiming to conclude his first year of Seki-Toto in style with a juryo debut), veteran player and former sekiwake Hamamiharu in her strongest start ever, and the Israeli makuuchi duo of Kintamayama and Yurkozan.

The kanto-sho appears to become a run-away victory by Choshu-yuki once again (I'm still taking suggestions for a revised formula!), but at least the gino-sho and the revamped shukun-sho are set to be closely contested. Mmikasazuma currently leads the gino-sho with 168.0 points despite only a 5-3 overall record, 1.5 points ahead of rookie Pandaazuma (also 5-3) who may not be content just aiming for the Rookie Award. The shukun-sho leader is Hpulley (aka Harry) with a 2.0857 percentage score - Harry started off in excellent fashion with a tie for the highest shonichi score and has tacked on several more good results since then. He's closely followed by Kitano (who has posted the best single-day score, on Day 7), and the two main contenders from the gino-sho.

Lastly, a year after the only other time it happened (Haru 2008 Day 12), we once again have had two *boshi in a single day. A rather nutty Day 2 that also saw an Exidrono win produced a kinboshi for Russian player Akatsukinosora (completing the set along with a ginboshi from Natsu 2007), as well as a ginboshi for Gernobono, his first coloured star. And they even happened in consecutive bouts - first Aka-etc. was the only one to predict Tochiozan's victory over Kotooshu, followed up right after with Gernobono's successful solo prediction of Miyabiyama over Kotomitsuki.

[Sashohitowa 6]

The kanto-sho appears to become a run-away victory by Choshu-yuki once again (I'm still taking suggestions for a revised formula!),

IF(Player="Choshu-yuki",0,........)

(kidding, of course)

[Asashosakari 20,287]

A quick look at how the new shukun-sho has developed day-to-day this basho... As it's just for a quick overview I didn't bother with breaking ties (like Kofuji's automation thankfully does):

Day

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Banzuke views:

Our ozeki squad is having an extremely unspectacular basho so far, with Norizo and Dimitri leading the way at only 5-3. Shin-ozeki Susanoo stands at 4-4, and Tosahayate unfortunately just got done burying his tsunatori opportunity, falling from 3-1 to 3-5.

It could be worse, of course, and you just need to look to the sekiwakes to see how. Golynohana's longshot promotion chance (after 9-5, 11-4) is dead already after a 4-4 start, though he can still salvage something for another shot next basho. Demoted ozeki Zenjimoto is even worse off at 3-5 and will lose the chance for immediate repromotion with the next loss. And worse yet, yours truly stands at 2-6 and is already planning ahead to live on a hiramaku salary for a while.

The komusubi six-pack has something for everyone. Kintamayama is in the yusho lead with his 7-1 record, and could even become our next ozeki contender (last basho M1e 11-4). Quite a stunning turnaround considering he hadn't even been in sanyaku for over three years, bouncing around in the upper-mid maegashira ranks. Sashimaru and Doitsuyama are also in positive territory at 5-3, while the other three have some work to do: Hakajusakari is 4-4, Gernobono 3-5, and Sukubidubidu just 2-6.

The high maegashira ranks are strong as usual, on the other hand. Among the top 10 players we have five 5-3, two 4-4, and two 3-5. And of course Yurkozan's yusho-leading 7-1, which makes him a strong komusubi contender even from M5e. Andoreasu (M6e 6-2) is also in the running for a big promotion.

The list of candidates for demotion to juryo is pretty well-defined right now: it's M13w Shiyonofuji at 2-6 and M11w Itachi at 1-7. M12w Gonzaburow has a 3-5 record and is also in danger, though much less than the sock monkey proprietor and the lower division game wizard.

Upper juryo is quite packed as well. The top three spots are held by J1e Toonoryu 5-3, J1w Pastanoyama 6-2 and J2e Takanorappa also 6-2, so there's no shortage of promotion candidates. J2w Kofuji 4-4, J3w Vikanohara 5-3 and J4w Tainosen 5-3 are also in the mix. The current major candidates for demotion to makushita are (in decreasing levels of danger) J13w Bafa 3-5, J11w Bill 2-6, J11e Frinkanohana 2-6 and J9e Misisko 2-6.

And those spots are likely to be taken up by some combination of: Ms3w Mysko 6-2, Ms6w Aome 7-1, Ms3e Neko 5-3, Ms1e Sashohitowa 4-4, Ms4e Bunijiman 5-3, Ms4w Choshu-yuki 5-3 and Ms2w Tarakozan 4-4.

On the divisional level the makuuchi guys are leading the way as usual, currently with 4.25 wins against 3.75 losses on average. The juryo players are almost balanced right now, a hair below 4.0 wins, while the average makushita or rookie player has 3.0 wins at the moment, although the upper half of makushita by itself is nearly balanced again.

[Vikanohara 171]

What's wrong with Seki-Toto right now ? Looks like the only game unavailable.

[Harry 67]

What's wrong with Seki-Toto right now ? Looks like the only game unavailable.

I just entered my picks and it seems to be working. I sure hope it is!

[Asashosakari 20,287]

And the upsets continue to roll in...Day 9 knocked around all four leaders allowing another four to join the 7-2 lead. Exidrono missed its third win of the basho by only two spots, and the average score predicting the juryo bouts was just 4.7 points (out of 14).

[Asashosakari 20,287]

After doubling the lead group yesterday Day 10 cut it in half again. Gaijingai, Kaiosuki, Kintamayama and Damimonay are the leaders (and first to kachikoshi) at 8-2.

With two low days in a row, nobody managed to make inroads in the shukun-sho race so Harry maintains his narrow lead. Mmikasazuma and Pandaazuma still top the gino-sho standings, though the gap between the two has grown a bit (now 3.5 points) and conversely there's almost no gap to third place and on anymore.

In unfortunate news, demoted ozeki Zenjimoto had to take his 6th loss today and won't be earning immediate re-promotion. The current ozeki are continuing their so-so results...Norizo has gone on a small winning streak and sports a respectable 7-3 record, while the other three have all levelled their results at 5-5. It won't be a huge surprise if we end up with a kadoban ozeki for Natsu.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

And another halfway cut brings us to just two leaders - the American duo of Kaiosuki and (former yusho winner) Gaijingai succeeded in moving up to 9-2 today, while Kintamayama and Damimonay fell back into the 8-3 group consisting of 14 players. Still lots of basho left for all that to be jumbled, of course. It does look quite likely that the yusho score will be a relatively low 12-3 this basho, possibly even just 11-4.

Among the newly kachikoshi players is strong newcomer Pandaazuma who looks more and more likely to take away the Rookie Award as the next-best new player DeRosa is already two wins behind. Pandaazuma did have to give way in the gino-sho race - despite gaining 2.0 points on still-leading Mmikasazuma, he finds himself down to 4th place as the two yusho leaders jumped in between with some of today's strongest scores. 5th-ranked Yokotanoharry is already 5.5 points back of the lead and 4.0 points behind Pandaazuma.

In the shukun-sho competition Kitano capped his remarkable rise from Day 6 to 8 by moving up from 2nd place and taking over the lead today, improving from 2.06 points to 2.11 points with yet another strong daily score. Other top 10 changes include Taka improving his position slightly from 2.00 to 2.03, and yusho-leading Kaiosuki with a big jump from 1.91 points and 40th place to 2.03 points.

(Hallelujah, I really enjoy having an actual race for the shukun-sho...)

[Kofuji 0]

(former yusho winner) Gaijingai

This is an oxymoron ... every one knows Gaijingai is the jun-yusho king! He must have been tied for yusho and lost the tiebreaker ;)

(Not sure if Gai reads this so the trolling may be pointless ...)

[Gaijingai 1,662]

(former yusho winner) Gaijingai

This is an oxymoron ... every one knows Gaijingai is the jun-yusho king! He must have been tied for yusho and lost the tiebreaker ;)

(Not sure if Gai reads this so the trolling may be pointless ...)

Hey - I resemble that remark! where's my cattle prod? ZAP!

[Harry 67]

In the shukun-sho competition Kitano capped his remarkable rise from Day 6 to 8 by moving up from 2nd place and taking over the lead today, improving from 2.06 points to 2.11 points with yet another strong daily score.

...

(Hallelujah, I really enjoy having an actual race for the shukun-sho...)

I don't know, I kind of liked it the way it was... (I am not worthy...) Gambarimasu!

[Asashosakari 20,287]

(former yusho winner) Gaijingai

This is an oxymoron ... every one knows Gaijingai is the jun-yusho king! He must have been tied for yusho and lost the tiebreaker ;)

(Not sure if Gai reads this so the trolling may be pointless ...)

Yeah, he does have a yusho-doten as well. (Gyoji...) No "normal" jun-yusho though.

In the shukun-sho competition Kitano capped his remarkable rise from Day 6 to 8 by moving up from 2nd place and taking over the lead today, improving from 2.06 points to 2.11 points with yet another strong daily score.

...

(Hallelujah, I really enjoy having an actual race for the shukun-sho...)

I don't know, I kind of liked it the way it was... (I am not worthy...) Gambarimasu!

If it makes you feel any better, with the old shukun-sho formula Kitano would have been the leader since Day 7 already. ;-) And you still have a good chance to win it - Kitano is only 5-5-1 while you're KK already.

Edit: Whoah, almost skimmed past the Gaijingai cameo. Good to see you're reading. :-)

Edited March 25, 2009 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Day 12:

Back to a large group of leaders thanks to losses by both Gaijingai and Kaiosuki. 10 players now lead the field at 9-3, followed by another 16 who are also already kachikoshi.

Despite being the relatively high-scoring day (the median line cut right between 20 and 19 points) there were no major changes in the shukun-sho race. Kitano collected a win today but still has some work to do to improve his 6-5-1 record to KK territory. Choshu-yuki is already closer to that, improving to 7-5 and about to win the kanto-sho. The gino-sho became even more of an open-ended affair today; leader Mmikasazuma stands at 248.0 points, but no less than 8 other players are within 5.5 points of her now.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Day 13:

Six players left in the 10-3 lead after today which probably means the yusho score will be 12-3 after all. Among these six, Damimonay and Ekigozan are at a disadvantage due to the X pick tie-breaker, but could of course still take the yusho outright if nobody else reaches 12 wins.

Lots of high daily scores today, one of which turned the shukun-sho race upside-down. Andrasoyamawaka (previously in 5th place) scored 26 points, a big 5-point improvement on his third-best score from the rest of the basho and took a commanding lead for the prize. Unfortunately he's only having a 6-7 overall record and may not actually qualify for it. Kitano in second place missed his second day and at 6-5-2 he may fall out of contention as well. Harry got company in third place by Herritaro with today's best score of 27 points, and if I'm remembering my own tie-breaker rules correctly, Herritaro should be ahead right now even if the automation currently says something else...

Herritaro is also just 6-7 however, so Harry (who's already 9-4) may yet win this. Or somebody else could score well on the final two days and take it. Oh, the suspense. ;-) The gino-sho is also still very much available, with the top 8 players now separated by only 4.0 points.

Meanwhile only a natural disaster can still change the kanto-sho winner as there's no way that Choshu-yuki's 12+ point advantage fails to hold up as long as she enters picks at all.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Banzuke after Day 13...

The makuuchi division went into overdrive the last four days, driving up their collective winning percentage from 52.4% to 56.3%. In win-loss terms they're currently 7.25-5.75 (ironically enough it's exactly the opposite in Seki-Quad right now). If that keeps up the dreaded scoring reduction will definitely be in effect this basho; perhaps the last two days will still help shake things out but if the basho was finished right now the mid-maegashira ranks would be completely impossible to work out without it.

Norizo is having the best basho among the ozeki right now with a 9-4 record. Dimitri and Susanoo are 8-5 while Tosahayate is 6-7 and has to worry about becoming kadoban right after his Hatsu basho yusho. I'll skip highlighting lower sanyaku for now because nearly everybody between S1e and M6e could still end up in or out of it depending on their last two days and whether or not the scores get adjusted.

Including the potential for reduced scores, the following players are in varying states of demotion danger to juryo:

M10w Flohru 6-7

M11e Heruwejima 7-6

M11w Itachi 2-11

M12e Kitakachiyama 7-6

M12w Gonzaburow 5-8

M13w Shiyonofuji 5-8

Luckily for them there's not a lot of decent scoring in the high juryo ranks for the first time since Nagoya basho...

J1e Toonoryu 7-6

J1w Pastanoyama 8-5

J2e Takanorappa 7-6

J3w Vikanohara 7-6

J7e Bogdanyama 9-4

And a few other candidates but their promotions would have to be classified as lucky if they actually make it. At the other end of juryo:

J7w Krokonowaka 4-9

J9e Misisko 4-9

J11e Frinkanohana 2-11

J11w Bill 5-8

J12e Hashira 6-7

J12w Kotononami 6-7

J13w Bafa 5-8

J14w Takanokaze 7-6

Staking claims to their spots are:

Ms1e Sashohitowa 8-5 (welcome to juryo!)

Ms3e Neko 8-5

Ms3w Mysko 10-3 (also guaranteed promotion already)

Ms4e Bunijiman 7-6

Ms4w Choshu-yuki 8-5

Ms6w Aome 9-4

Possibly also Ms12w Mmikasazuma (9-4) and Ms16w Kaiosuki (10-3) with two more wins if there are lots of open slots.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Day 14:

And suddenly I'm not so sure of that 12-3 yusho score anymore after four of the six leaders already fell today, leaving only Kaiosuki and Damimonay in first place at 11-3, ahead of a full dozen at 10-4. Among the two leaders the edge goes to Kaiosuki, as Damimonay has used X picks. By the same token those pursuers with X usage are almost certainly out of the yusho race, but that still leaves 9 of them, so I won't even try to handicap the outcome.

All this is made even more complicated by the fact that the gino-sho race - whose scores double as second tie-breaker - has become even closer today. The top 5 players (three of whom are yusho-contending) are within just one single point! The next tie-breaker for both the yusho and the prize itself will be total risk factor, BTW.

Among the main shukun-sho contenders those not named Harry all improved their record to 7-7 today. On the other hand, apparently not content to just hope for them to fall to MK, Harry scored the day's top score of 25.0 points which also gave him a late boost for the prize standings. He's now in sole second place again and only needs Andrasoyamawaka to fail to reach the kachikoshi instead of three different players. Nevertheless, somebody else could have a similar jump tomorrow and snatch the prize away from all of them yet.

Lastly, Pandaazuma has officially locked down the Rookie Award after today - at 10-4 he's now two wins ahead of the nearest competitor and even his early-basho X picking can't cost him anymore. Congrats!

Edited March 28, 2009 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Senshuraku:

And in the end all the tie-breaker considerations went out the window - two players entered the final day and leaders and just one walked out with a win, to take the undisputed 12-3 yusho. Congratulations Damimonay! (On the banzuke...) After narrowly missing out on the yusho last time, losing a 12-3 tie-breaker decision but securing the makuuchi debut, Damimonay now went one step better and took it all. He's on a rather incredible run right now, scoring 10-3-2, 10-4, kosho, 12-3, 12-3 to go from the bottom of juryo to (at least) the top maegashira ranks for next time. And it's already his 5th career 12-3 record, so we may have a new sanyaku regular here soon.

An eight-headed monster from seven different countries ended up taking the 11-4 jun-yusho honors. (Including, yes, Gaijingai.) In prize news: with the kanto-sho and the Rookie Award already safely awarded to Choshu-yuki and Pandaazuma, respectively, our attention today was turned to the shukun-sho and gino-sho races:

Today's scores were relatively high again allowing for some late pushes into contention, such as Arikomitsu and Pastanoyama moving from 9th place to 5th and 6th, but it wasn't enough to displace the main contenders. Thus we focus on whether or not Andrasoyamawaka could achieve the kachikoshi - and it turns out he missed it by a very narrow margin. His 19.0 points were at the median line, but using two X picks moves him down in the pack via tie-breaker and into the losing zone. His risk factor would have been good enough for a win if it had been 19 points without X's... Therefore the shukun-sho goes to hpulley who missed a chance to also become part of the jun-yusho crowd today but will probably be consoled quite nicely by the prize and his best-ever basho record. See what's possible when you don't miss entering multiple days each basho? (Clapping wildly...)

The gino-sho also went down to the wire in a big way - long-time leader Mmikasazuma already fell out of yusho contention with tough losses on both Day 13 and 14, but had maintained her high position in the pure points standings through it all. And while her 21.0 points today weren't enough to crack the day's top 20 scores, it was good enough to hold off all challengers: Mmikasazuma wins the gino-sho with 308.0 points, a mere smidgen ahead of the Sumotalk duo of Bogdanyama and Pandaazuma at 307.5 each and Gaijingai at 307.0 - congrats! Incidentally, yusho winner Damimonay actually ended up finishing outside the top 10 with exactly 300.0 points.

Banzuke stuff: Ozeki Norizo managed to be one of the 11-4 jun-yusho winners and while that's not an especially high score he'll be getting another crack at the big white rope next basho. Dimitri and Susanoo narrowly cleared the KK hurdle at 8-7 (and won't be considered kadoban even if the makuuchi scores get adjusted for the banzuke), while Tosahayate has gone from tsunatori to kadoban with a 6-9 record. The sekiwake didn't really live up to the rank, with Golynohana at 9-6, Zenjimoto at 8-7 and yours truly a dreadful 6-9. Some of the komusubi did better, K1e Sashimaru leading the way with a jun-yusho 11-4, and Doitsuyama and Kintamayama at 10-5. Sukubidubidu and Hakajusakari finished 7-8, Gernobono just 6-9.

That would ordinarily open up enough slots in sanyaku, but the maegashira ranks utterly dominated the competition this basho. 7 of the top 8 players finished kachikoshi, and right below we have three 10-5's and Damimonay's 12-3 also with a claim to high ranks next time. Overall we actually have more 8-7 records than makekoshi among the maegashira, which I'm afraid is an obvious invitation to adjust the records again. Justified, too, as the average top division player had 8.3 wins this basho, making 8-7 below average once again. In any case, I hesitate to say anything about potential promotions because it's not clear at all how this will turn out in the end.

Same between makuuchi and juryo where we have five promotion candidates and just two demotable players, four if adjusted. Juryo overall scored exactly 7.5 wins on average so the division itself should work out well. There are three clear candidates for demotion to makushita and two borderline, and as it happens there are five reasonably strong makushita records, so that's probably how many exchanges we'll have here. Rookie Pandaazuma topped the shindeshi class with his jun-yusho 11-4 and will probably enter the banzuke around Ms25 (that's where I had him yesterday anyway), and it's encouraging that three other players also finished kachikoshi: DeRosa at 9-6, and Sebunshu and returnee Takashido at 8-7.

Thanks to everyone for their participation, hope you enjoyed your time. See you in May! (I am not worthy...)

Edited March 29, 2009 by Asashosakari

[Harry 67]

Therefore the shukun-sho goes to hpulley who missed a chance to also become part of the jun-yusho crowd today but will probably be consoled quite nicely by the prize and his best-ever basho record. See what's possible when you don't miss entering multiple days each basho? (On the banzuke...)

Yes, amazing the difference playing each day makes! I still wish I could take more time on it but I have barely enough as it is.