Seki-Quad daily commentary Aki 2008

[Asashosakari 20,287]

One note to start: Unlike in Seki-Toto, I'm not going to cancel the scores of the first day. 60 of our usual ~80 players managed to submit picks, probably in part because of Golynohana entering emailed selections as well (thanks!), and as I never get tired to repeat Quadrumvirate penalizes late-joining players a lot less than any other game. Especially so this basho where we're starting with only 66 active sekitori, which could make the last few days very interesting...having four more picks at the end could turn out to be a big advantage this time. Or you simply might be stuck with 14 losers instead of 10 on senshuraku... Anyway, tactical picking will sure become important this basho, particularly if even more rikishi go kyujo.

So, if you didn't already play on Day 1, come on in and add yourself to the (at the time of writing) already 21 players who have joined for Day 2. :-O

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Shonichi:

Welcome to edition #26 of Sekitori-Quadrumvirate, hopefully one that will go off without another hitch after the rocky start over the weekend. We open the basho with strong scores as 46 of the 60 active players (76.7%) scored a win. However, almost as to underscore my previous post, nearly half of them already used one or even both yokozuna today. At least most did get a win out of it. :-D Takanokaze stands as the day's most unfortunate victim of the game rules after picking up a loss despite 2 points from the Hakuho/Asashoryu pair at the top of his ballot.

Today's top picks were Futeno (26 selections), Hakuho (25), Chiyotaikai (21) and Aran (17), all winning. 15 players had perfect four-point days to take the nominal lead in the gino-sho, the top kanto-sho score was posted by rookie Kankikaze even with just three winning rikishi, and he is also the early (and only!) leader in the shukun-sho by being the only one to pick up boshi bonus points today - well done on that Kotoshogiku pick!

And while we're on the subject of rookies - welcome also to Hakase, mischashimaru and Sokkenaiyama, as well as returning player Saruwatari. :-O Perhaps they'll be joined by a few more new faces in the coming days.

Edited September 14, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Day 2:

Another above-average day as 21 players joined the basho in-progress today. 48 of 78 players (61.5%) won, and again the two yokozuna combined for more than 30 picks to boost the scores. The day's top selection, however, was Ichihara (42 picks) who overcame three matta in his bout against Ushiomaru. Ama (33, loss) and Kirinowaka (29, win) also garnered significant support.

Flohru, Gonzaburow and Kotononami have started the basho with consecutive four-pointers and lead the gino-sho for now, and as there were no other bonuses today their two shukun points also put them in the lead for that prize along with Kankikaze - who did things opposite from the other 21 players and was absent today after playing yesterday. That, of course, means we also have a new kanto-sho leader, and it's a familiar name in two-time prize winner Terarno.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Day 3:

Only 36.3% winners today (29 of 80) even with a very obvious fusensho - 48 players selected Kakuryu for a safe point. On the other hand, 29 picked Asashoryu and 27 Kotooshu, and those choices didn't work out nearly as well. The rest of the schedule only went so-so as well and we finished with fewer winners than players who were stuck at 2 points. (To speak nothing of the nine players who didn't get anything right other than the fusen...)

Kankikaze is still MIA but takes over the sole shukun-sho lead anyway as the three other leaders all lost a point with the fusen demerit. Terarno maintains the top spot in the kanto-sho standings, and Susanoo is the new gino-sho leader with 10 points.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Day 4:

Another not-so-good day with 42.5% winning players (34 of 80). Four players have survived without a loss until now, viz. Randomitsuki, sekihiryu, Ketsukai, and last basho's rookie and jun-yusho winner Bodganyama who is quickly becoming a force to be reckoned with.

Three of the day's top four selections took place in the juryo division (Ryuo 38 selections, YMY 21, Tosayutaka 18), all being successful. The remainder once more was only so-so, however, and again over 30 unfortunate players were stuck at 2 points. Incidentally, so far not a single player has had a zero-points day this basho, the first time ever we've had four consecutive days like that.

We're back to multiple shukun-sho leaders after Takamisakana, Gonzaburow and Takanorappa picked up another Four. Takamisakana also had a very strong kanto-sho score today to narrowly edge out compatriot Terarno in the overall standings. The gino-sho now has a whopping nine leaders tied at 12 points after yesterday's sole lead by kadoban ozeki Susanoo evaporated.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Day 5:

A very upset-free torikumi today, leading to 72.7% winners (56 of 77) and few changes in the yusho race as all four leaders won. An even dozen players follow at 4-1. Ten rikishi were picked in double-digits today and just one of them failed to come through - Bushuyama was the only big disappointment of the day in his twice-delayed loss against Wakakirin.

The nine highly-sought-after winners combined for nearly two-thirds of all selections today, resulting in lots and lots of Fours (25 of 'em), not to mention a 5th straight day without any zero scores. One of those Fours was scored by Gonzaburow who takes over the shukun-sho lead with 3 points. She is also the new sole gino-sho leader with 16 points, followed by (and mirroring the yusho race) 12 players one point behind. The kanto-sho lead remains located in France but is back in Terarno's hands today.

Through 5 days we have a pretty nice KK/MK split with 43 players 3-2 or better, and 40 players 2-3 or worse. However, that's quite a bit absence-assisted; the actual win average stands at 56.8% (about 8.5 wins across a full basho), which is more than 5 percentage points above the historical average. Still, with the shortened sekitori slate this basho, those numbers are almost guaranteed to come down significantly before we're finished.

[Ganzohnesushi 548]

...Still, with the shortened sekitori slate this basho, those numbers are almost guaranteed to come down significantly before we're finished.

I can already see myself desperately searching picks for Senshuraku next Saturday...

Ganzohnesushi

[Asashosakari 20,287]

I can already see myself desperately searching picks for Senshuraku next Saturday...

Senshuraku? I was feeling pretty lost today already. (Gyoji...)

---

Day 6:

A fair number of upsets occured today, and that had its effects on S4 as well, dropping the winning percentage to 41.0% (32 of 78). The leading quartet was cut in half with only Randomitsuki (who is having an excellent basho in both Quad and Toto so far) and Ketsukai still without a loss. The pursuit group was ravaged even more; just 2 of the 12 players (Rannohana and Bill) scored a win today to join Bogdanyama and sekihiryu at 5-1.

The day's chief culprit was Tochiozan who had to accept a surprise loss against gimpy Masatsukasa. Surprising also for the 48 players who picked him, half of whom saw that bout be the difference-maker between their 2-point loss and a potential 3-point win today. It's rather rare that just one bout ends up deciding the daily fate of nearly a third of all players.

Few of us managed to escaped completely unscathed and just 3 Fours is the clear low mark of the basho so far. On the upside, we finally had somebody score another bonus and who should it be but gin/doboshi master extraordinaire, Kachitakai. Selecting Kakuryu over Kotooshu gave him 2 shukun points but somewhat surprisingly not the sansho lead (yet) as he hasn't had any Fours to bolster his bonus total, so Gonzaburow remains the leader with 3 points. The kanto-sho continues to be a French affair, now with Takamisakana in the top spot again. Returning player Saruwatari had been lurking around position #5 all basho, and pushed himself up to #2 with a very strong kanto score today. The gino-sho standings continue their daily oscillation between one and many leading players - Gonzaburow only had two points today to allow four players to join her in the lead.

Edited September 19, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Vikanohara 171]

It looked good after two from the four I selected had won their bout. But then Tamawashi was the first one losing, and Tochiozan followed. My reserve pick was Bushuyama. If only I had put him instead of one of them.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

It looked good after two from the four I selected had won their bout. But then Tamawashi was the first one losing, and Tochiozan followed. My reserve pick was Bushuyama. If only I had put him instead of one of them.

Better than for me. Not that there's much hope anyway with a 1-3 score, but I think the four or five guys I might have considered as alternate picks all lost, too, so the only way to improve the day would have been to not play it at all. Actually, the next time I'm struggling to find a 3rd and 4th guy I should probably do exactly that...

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

I got one full Shukunsho point for picking Hakuho today. Was I the only one who did so? (Gyoji...)

[Golynohana 332]

You got no shukunsho points but you got 1 kantosho point.

And yes, it is for being the only one who picked a winning rikishi

[Sokkenaiyama 81]

Like... WOW. Nobody else picked Hak?! Surreal.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Like... WOW. Nobody else picked Hak?! Surreal.

Well, 61 players had already picked him on the first five days, and I suspect a large number of the other ~20 are saving him for tie-breaker purposes.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Quick addendum to yesterday, as I totally forgot to mention that the record-setting no-zeros streak finally came to an end. Taka was the unfortunately points-less player.

---

Day 7:

Things improved a bit today and 53.2% of us (41 of 77) scored a win. Ketsukai marched on to 7-0, but Randomitsuki only found two winners today to fall back into the pursuit group, all four of whom earned a win. Very diverse picks throughout the torikumi today with seven different rikishi receiving between 16 and 24 picks. Kyokunankai whom I just recently maligned as being unpredictable was the top pick and fulfilled the expectations. At least for this day. (Shaking head...) The biggest upsets were scored against Tokitenku (losing to his usual patsy Futeno), and Chiyotaikai (losing to the Aminishiki henka tour), both selected 20 times.

We were back to no boshi bonuses again, but plenty of Fours resulted in Gonzaburow getting company atop the shukun-sho standings as sashimaru and Takanorappa each scored their third point. Takamisakana managed to defend the kanto-sho lead; none of his immediate pursuers had a particularly good day and second place (already 1.31 points back) is actually now held by Kitakachiyama who was still all the way down at #9 yesterday. And somewhat spookily, the gino-sho lead did go back to just one player again - yusho leader Ketsukai is the only one to score 22 points so far.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

In banzuke news...

Kadoban ozeki Susanoo had a good start into the basho with three straight wins, but has dropped to 4-3 in the meantime. Shin-ozeki Tosahayate also stands at 4-3, while the other shin-ozeki Konosato is kyujo this basho.

Also kyujo is one of our sekiwake-ranked ozeki candidates Anjoboshi, while the other one may wish he had done the same: Norizo has had a disastrous start and sports a 1-6 record right now. If he doesn't rally to kachikoshi, somebody may get rather lucky to fill the second sekiwake slot; none of the 6 komusubi and top 8 maegashira is better than 4-3 at the moment.

Things look rather tricky in a different way at the bottom of makuuchi. Everybody ranked M13-M16 is in KK territory right now and nobody has done especially badly above those ranks, either. Both J1 Kyokuhagyo and Holleshoryu are 5-2, however. One division further down, J13e Mysko is struggling badly at 1-6 and Ms3w Bogdanyama is already eyeing that spot with the opposite record.

Edited September 20, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Day 8:

We finish the first week with a respectable performance and 60.8% winners (48 of 79). Ketsukai was among them and continues to lead, now ahead of just 3 players after Randomitsuki and Bill dropped back to 6-2. Shimotori was successfully selected by more than half of us against struggling Kitazakura.

Finally some decent movement in the shukun-sho race thanks to 15 Fours and 6 Doboshi (Kotoshogiku against Asasekiryu). Co-leader Takanorappa improved to 4 points thanks to another Four, but he still has company in Mmikasazuma who scored with both a Four and a Kotoshogiku pick to jump right to the top of the standings. Takamisakana's kanto-sho lead has decreased a bit but he remains comfortably in first place. Ketsukai broke the gino-sho pattern and managed to defend his sole lead today, even extending it to 2 points.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Day 9:

Well, let's hope we've already reached the low point of the second week. Just 24.1% winning players today (19 of 79) for the lowest score of the basho, but Ketsukai was unperturbed and brought in another win to stay on top. Among the three pursuers only sekihiryu managed to win today and get an early kachikoshi at 8-1. The day's top selection Tochinoshin (40) dispatched Kasugao to send him back to juryo, but most other rikishi favoured by us today weren't that successful.

No changes in the shukun-sho and gino-sho standings, but Kitakachiyama profited from a big zero by Takamisakana today and takes over the kanto-sho lead.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

I want to clarify something just in case:

The required scores for an ozeki to not become kadoban / get out of kadoban / earn immediate re-promotion from sekiwake will be made dependent on the overall scoring level. Should the average player have scored in less than 43.33% of all days (= 6.5 wins per 15, one win below average), the relevant records will also be reduced by one win. We've had 6 such basho in the 25 that have been played (and one more basho that was narrowly above that mark). Likewise, if we ever get another nightmare basho like Natsu 2006 where the scores were even below 36.67% (5.5 wins), the adjustment will be two wins.

I realize that may strike people as too lenient, but I'd prefer not to turn the ozeki rank into a revolving door just because of a couple of tough basho in a row.

It's unlikely to come into play this basho - at least I hope so! We're currently at 51.3% and would need to score an average of just 31% the rest of the way (about 10 percentage points less than normal) to drop down far enough, so our ozekis should definitely plan to get at least 8 wins.

[Asashosakari 20,287]

9 players have an opportunity for a guaranteed win today, let's see if any of them have taken advantage of that...

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Day 10:

A lot of fusen picks today (22 on Goeido, 3 on Kasuganishiki; probably not all intentional), but nobody went for the really cheap win. Unfortunately, even with a bunch of freebie points the day still turned out quite rough. Only 37.7% winners (29 of 77), and the offenders are quite numerous this time. Miyabiyama (25 picks) and Wakanosato (24) both received lots of attention, but failed to come through for us. The most popular bout, however, was the futility duel between Kitazakura and Kasugao (with just one win between both of them before today), which received a total of 31 selections. The 15 on the side of Kasugao turned out to be the lucky ones.

Unlike his real-life counterpart who was felled again by Kaiho today, our J12e Ketsukai continues to march on and now stands at 10-0. His last remaining close competitor sekihiryu picked up his second loss, so the field will have to hope for Ketsukai to hit a few rough spots in the remaining five days if this yusho isn't to be a runaway deal. Besides sekihiryu only Rannohana sports an 8-2 record (8-1-1, rather), but if things continue to be tough the seven players at 7-3 may also still have a shot.

Lots of shake-up potential in the shukun-sho standings today with 25 demerits, 5 Fours and 13 doboshi (Kotoshogiku again, this time against sekiwake Toyonoshima), but the top spots remain unchanged with Mmikasazuma and Takanorappa on 4 shukun points. The kanto-sho lead is back in French hands after a brief sojourn; it's Terarno's turn again for the first time since Day 5. The top 14 players in the kanto-sho standings are all between 6-4 and 4-6 at the moment so it's anybody's guess who will actually qualify for the prize at the end. #15 happens to be yusho leader Ketsukai (already KK of course) who might just pick off the prize if the next five days turn out difficult and kill off the competition. And as if that wasn't enough already, he also increased his gino-sho lead from 2 to 4 points, a remarkable gap rarely achieved.

After two-thirds of the basho we're almost exactly even with a total win-loss record of 382-383. That's a bit below the historical average now after we were still significantly above it after 5 days.

[Terarno 47]

Day 10:

but nobody went for the really cheap win.

cough... cough...

:-D

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Day 10:

but nobody went for the really cheap win.

cough... cough...

:-D

Sure, you had both fusensho (as did Norizo), but you still needed to get another selection correct. The really, really cheap win would have been something like this:

For day 9, you have selected:

Kobo Kinkaiyama Miyabiyama Kaio

Good luck!

[Asashosakari 20,287]

Day 11:

Well, Ketsukai finally had to take a loss, but so did Rannohana and sekihiryu so Ketsukai maintains his 2-win lead. On the other hand, six of the seven players with the next-best record won today to give us an 8-strong group at 8-3. The overall score was surprisingly good with 47.4% winning players (36 of 76).

Five Fours and seven doboshi today (Kisenosato against Asasekiryu), which provided for a minor change at the top of the shukun-sho race. Koukai joins Mmikasazuma and Takanorappa with 4 points. Mmikasazuma is almost kachikoshi already at 7-3-1, while Takanorappa might be playing himself out of contention soon at 4-6-1. The kanto-sho Tour de France continues, now with Takamisakana in the lead again and by the smallest possible amount of 0.01 points. Both he and Terarno have 6 wins and will have to get a couple more before qualifying. Koukai has moved near the top here, too. Ketsukai's gino-sho lead was cut back down to 2 points.

[Sakana 46]

Quick question : what is the "(D)" I can see in my picks ?