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Odoriou

Aki Basho Banzuke Prediction

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Sorting the guys in lower Juryo was terribly painful this time. (Beaten...) Nevertheless, here is my attempt: (Neener, neener...)

Hakuho		(Yw, 15-0)	Y	Asashoryu	(Ye, 3-3-9)
Kotomitsuki   (O1w, 11-4)   O	Kotooshu	 (O1e, 9-6)
Kaio		  (O2e, 9-6)	O	Chiyotaikai  (O2w, 9-6)
Ama		   (Se, 10-5)	S	Toyonoshima  (Kw, 10-5)
Asasekiryu	(M2e, 8-7)	K	Baruto	   (M5w, 10-5)

Kotoshogiku   (Sw, 6-9)	M 1   Miyabiyama   (M5e, 9-6)
Kisenosato	(Ke, 6-9)	M 2   Homasho	  (M6e, 9-6)
Aminishiki	(M1e, 6-9)   M 3   Roho		 (M7e, 9-6)
Tochinonada   (M3w, 7-8)   M 4   Kyokutenho   (M9e, 10-5)
Goeido		(M4w, 7-8)   M 5   Kakuryu	  (M7w, 8-7)
Wakanoho	  (M1w, 4-11)  M 6   Wakanosato   (M4e, 5-10)
Tokitenku	 (M6w, 7-8)   M 7   Hokutoriki   (M2w, 4-11)
Tochiozan	 (M11e, 9-6)  M 8   Iwakiyama	(M9w, 8-7)
Toyohibiki	(M13e, 10-5) M 9   Futeno	   (M3e, 3-12)
Takamisakari  (M8e, 6-9)   M 10  Tamanoshima  (M10e, 7-8)
Dejima		(M8w, 6-9)   M 11  Masatsukasa  (M16e, 10-5)
Tochinoshin   (M14w, 8-7)  M 12  Takekaze	 (M12e, 7-8)
Kimurayama	(M12w, 7-8)  M 13  Kitataiki	(J4e, 11-4)
Yoshikaze	 (M15e, 8-7)  M 14  Tamawashi	(J1e, 9-6)
Kokkai		(M10w, 5-10) M 15  Chiyohakuho  (M16w, 8-7)
Kasugao	   (J2w, 9-6)   M 16  Kakizoe	  (M15w, 7-8)

Bushuyama	 (J8e, 12-3)  J 1   Kitazakura   (J3e, 8-7)
Tosanoumi	 (M14e, 5-10) J 2   Tamakasuga   (M11w, 3-12)
Wakakirin	 (J2e, 7-8)   J 3   Shimotori	(J6e, 9-6)
Kasuganishiki (J6w, 9-6)   J 4   Toyozakura   (J1w, 6-9)
Koryu		 (M13w, 3-12) J 5   Hakurozan	(J4w, 7-8)
Hoshihikari   (J3w, 6-9)   J 6   Kyokunankai  (J9w, 9-6)
Kotokasuga	(J5e, 6-8-1) J 7   Mokonami	 (J12e, 9-6)
Aran		  (J14e, 10-5) J 8   Hakuba	   (J5w, 5-10)
Ushiomaru	 (J7w, 6-9)   J 9   Shirononami  (J11e, 8-7)
Ryuo		  (J11w, 8-7)  J 10  Sagatsukasa  (J13w, 9-6)
Otsukasa	  (J10e, 7-8)  J 11  Tosayutaka   (J14w, 9-6)
Ichihara	  (J12w, 8-7)  J 12  Yamamotoyama (Ms1w, 6-1)
Kirinowaka	(J8w, 6-9)   J 13  Asofuji	  (Ms2w, 5-2)
Kaiho		 (J7e, 5-10)  J 14  Wakatenro	(Ms3w, 4-3)

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I think you are being hugely kind on Wakanosato. Very much doubt he'll remain that high. Tamanoshima wont keep his rank (even the half drop) IMO. I have my juryo preds at home at the mo'. The rest we're pretty close on. I have put Bart east and kiryu west FWIW.

Edited by Bealzbob

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Is there a chance to promote the winner of the juryo-yusho Bushuyama to Makuuchi?

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Is there a chance to promote the winner of the juryo-yusho Bushuyama to Makuuchi?

Sure, if they keep Kasugao in juryo. Or, really more unlikely, demote Kakizoe.

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I have put Bart east and kiryu west FWIW.

I also put Asasekiryu East and Baruto West with the following logic/thoughts

behind it (trying to think like a bunch of old sekitori). Asasekiryu has been

in Sanyaku before and has shown on occasion his ability to handle it and

has been a pretty regular fixture in the Joi' Jin the last couple years and

is being promoted from the higher ranking.

Baruto on the other hand has never quite made it to Sanyaku and on the

occasion of making it to the top of the Joi' Jim has been unable to seize

the opportunity thus I believe they will put him in the secondary slot.

IMHO FWIW

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Sure, if they keep Kasugao in juryo. Or, really more unlikely, demote Kakizoe
.

With a couple notable exceptions (Kotokasuga, Koryu) the recent crop of shin makuuchi have

brought about a considerable interest in Ozumo in Japan as represented by the 9 sold out days

in Nagoya. I believe they will consider this in their decision as to how hight to promote Bushuyama.

I for one think that a quick dip into Juryo for Kakizoe might be just the bracer to light a fire

under his mawashi and give him renewed genkiness. If they choose to promote I would rather see

Kaki go down that to hold back Kasugao who is down there due to injury and not necessarily so so sumo,

again IMHO.

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I'm simultaneously impressed and disappointed that nobody has yet brought up that Kasugao's 9th win was a freebie. (Neener, neener...)

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I'm simultaneously impressed and disappointed that nobody has yet brought up that Kasugao's 9th win was a freebie. (Neener, neener...)

And I'm equally impressed and disappointed that people still think banzuke makers take distant/near past performances into consideration, after time and again we've seen them consider the numbers exclusively.. Of course, the number consideration varies depending on the timeline and what is "en vogue" , but past performances and behavior, hairstyle etc.. are totally irrelevant.

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With a couple notable exceptions (Kotokasuga, Koryu) the recent crop of shin makuuchi have brought about a considerable interest in Ozumo in Japan as represented by the 9 sold out days in Nagoya.

Any proof for that having anything to do with the four promotees, or is it just an uneducated guess? Me, I would have credited that to Osh's tsunatori and the general rise in ticket sales, but what do I know...

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With a couple notable exceptions (Kotokasuga, Koryu) the recent crop of shin makuuchi have brought about a considerable interest in Ozumo in Japan as represented by the 9 sold out days in Nagoya.

Any proof for that having anything to do with the four promotees, or is it just an uneducated guess? Me, I would have credited that to Osh's tsunatori and the general rise in ticket sales, but what do I know...

I would agree with Jakusotsu. As the usual sumo spectator doesn't even know who the shin makuuchi are, I doubt very much that they would be the reason for a rise of ticket sales.

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With a couple notable exceptions (Kotokasuga, Koryu) the recent crop of shin makuuchi have brought about a considerable interest in Ozumo in Japan as represented by the 9 sold out days in Nagoya.

Any proof for that having anything to do with the four promotees, or is it just an uneducated guess? Me, I would have credited that to Osh's tsunatori and the general rise in ticket sales, but what do I know...

I would agree with Jakusotsu. As the usual sumo spectator doesn't even know who the shin makuuchi are, I doubt very much that they would be the reason for a rise of ticket sales.

I would even go so far and add that Chisaiyama tends to make a lot of uneducated guesses... I called her out on the latest and she just comes up with more of the same stuff. Some people never learn.

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I would even go so far and add that Chisaiyama tends to make a lot of uneducated guesses... I called her out on the latest and she just comes up with more of the same stuff. Some people never learn.

Talking about uneducated guesses - I'm pretty certain that Chisaiyama isn't a "she" (First prize...)

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I would even go so far and add that Chisaiyama tends to make a lot of uneducated guesses... I called her out on the latest and she just comes up with more of the same stuff. Some people never learn.

Talking about uneducated guesses - I'm pretty certain that Chisaiyama isn't a "she" ;-)

Ooops... I wouldn't call that uneducated then, apparently I'm mistakening him(?) for another Chisai-x who should be a she IIRC.

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I would even go so far and add that Chisaiyama tends to make a lot of uneducated guesses... I called her out on the latest and she just comes up with more of the same stuff. Some people never learn.

Talking about uneducated guesses - I'm pretty certain that Chisaiyama isn't a "she" ;-)

Ooops... I wouldn't call that uneducated then, apparently I'm mistakening him(?) for another Chisai-x who should be a she IIRC.

mixed him with Chiisaiyama, who is a she

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pretty different from Odoriou's

Seems like you looked at my draft and then you made the exact opposite of it. ;-)

I thought I was already too harsh on Yamamotoyamamotoyama. A 6-1 from Ms1 usually puts you around J10. Poor little Yama ;-) has bad banzuke luck for... how many times in a row now? :-(

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Makuuchi guess:

Hmmm..... your list has some outsized upward moves (Kyokotenho, Toyohibiki, Tochiozan, Iwakiyama) but some of these are needed to degrade the poor performers appropriately (Waknoho, Wakanosato, Futeno, Hokutoriki).

I guess the NSK will have to settle for one of these models.

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After looking over my makuuchi guess a bit more, the toughest area (in terms of potential solutions) might be M10-M11. I'm fairly sure that it'll be filled by Futeno, Takamisakari, Dejima and Tamanoshima, but I can justify half a dozen versions. Above I have the "let's give the benefit of the doubt to the meatgrinder guy" version:

Futeno (M3e, 3-12)

Edited by Asashosakari

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After looking over my makuuchi guess a bit more, the toughest area (in terms of potential solutions) might be M10-M11. I'm fairly sure that it'll be filled by Futeno, Takamisakari, Dejima and Tamanoshima, but I can justify half a dozen versions.

Imo you also have Kyokotenho and Iwakiyama a tad high.

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Imo you also have Kyokotenho and Iwakiyama a tad high.

Could be, but that's due to a philosophical difference as you noted above, not because I rolled dice and they came up "M3w" for 'tenho. That M10-M11 area on the other hand looks like a complete crapshoot to me - unless I'm totally off and Odoriou's version (with a non-overpromoted Masatsukasa) is the real one.

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Makuuchi guess:

Hakuho (Ye, 15-0Y) Y Asashoryu (Ye, 3-3-9)

Kotomitsuki (O1w, 11-4) O1 Kotooshu (O1e, 9-6)

Kaio (O2e, 9-6) O2 Chiyotaikai (O2w, 9-6)

Ama (Se, 10-5) S Toyonoshima (Kw, 10-5)

Baruto (M5w, 10-5) K Asasekiryu (M2e, 8-7)

[etc.]

My picks are quite similar. The only cases where we disagree by more than a half-rank are Wakanoho, Iwakiyama, Tochiozan, and Yoshikaze.

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Perhaps better luck this time after the last one wasn't terribly on-target:

Wakakoyu

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My banzuke

East			 West
---------------------------
Hakuho	   Y   Asashoryu
Kotomitsuki  O1  Kotooshu
Kaio		 O2  Chiyotaikai
Ama		  S1  Toyonoshima
Baruto	   K1  Asasekiryu
Kotoshogiku  M1  Miyabiyama
Kisenosato   M2  Homasho
Roho		 M3  Kyokutenho
Aminishiki   M4  Tochinonada
Goeido	   M5  Kakuryu
Wakanoho	 M6  Iwakiyama
Tochiozan	M7  Tokitenku
Toyohibiki   M8  Hokutoriki
Wakanosato   M9  Takamisakari
Dejima	   M10 Futeno
Masatsukasa  M11 Tamanoshima
Tochinoshin  M12 Kitataiki
Takekaze	 M13 Kimurayama
Yoshikaze	M14 Tamawashi
Kokkai	   M15 Chiyohakuho
Kasugao	  M16 Kakizoe
---------------------------
Bushuyama	J1  Kitazakura
Tosanoumi	J2  Shimotori
Wakakirin	J3  Kasuganishiki
Tamakasuga   J4  Toyozakura
Koryu		J5  Hakurozan
Hoshihikari  J6  Kyokunankai
Kotokasuga   J7  Mokonami
Hakuba	   J8  Aran
Ushiomaru	J9  Shirononami
Ryuo		 J10 Sagatsukasa
Ichihara	 J11 Tosayutaka
Yamamotoyama J12 Otsukasa
Kirinowaka   J13 Kaiho
Asofuji	  J14 Wakatenro

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Everybody has his own wierd Banzuke (I am not worthy...) , here's mine:

Ye	Yw	Hakuho (15-0)
Yw	Ye	Asashoryu (3-3-9)
O1e	O1w	Kotomitsuki (11-4)
O1w	O1e	Kotooshu (9-6)
O2e	O2e	Kaio (9-6)
O2w	O2w	Chiyotaikai (9-6)
Se	Se	Ama (10-5)
Sw	Kw	Toyonoshima (10-5)
Ke	M2e	Asasekiryu (8-7)
Kw	M5w	Baruto (10-5)
M1e	Sw	Kotoshogiku (6-9)
M1w	M5e	Miyabiyama (9-6)
M2e	Ke	Kisenosato (6-9)
M2w	M6e	Homasho (9-6)
M3e	M9e	Kyokutenho (10-5)
M3w	M1e	Aminishiki (6-9)
M4e	M7e	Roho (9-6)
M4w	M3w	Tochinonada (7-8)
M5e	M7w	Kakuryu (8-7)
M5w	M4w	Goeido (7-8)
M6e	M13e	Toyohibiki (10-5)
M6w	M11e	Tochiozan (9-6)
M7e	M9w	Iwakiyama (8-7)
M7w	M1w	Wakanoho (4-11)
M8e	M6w	Tokitenku (7-8)
M8w	M4e	Wakanosato (5-10)
M9e	M2w	Hokutoriki (4-11)
M9w	M16e	Masatsukasa (10-5)
M10e	M3e	Futeno (3-12)
M10w	M8e	Takamisakari (6-9)
M11e	M10e	Tamanoshima (7-8)
M11w	M8w	Dejima (6-9)
M12e	M14w	Tochinoshin (8-7)
M12w	M15e	Yoshikaze (8-7)
M13e	M12e	Takekaze (7-8)
M13w	M12w	Kimurayama (7-8)
M14e	J4e	Kitataiki (11-4)
M14w	J1e	Tamawashi (9-6)
M15e	M16w	Chiyohakuho (8-7)
M15w	M10w	Kokkai (5-10)
M16e	J2w	Kasugao (9-6)
M16w	J8e	Bushuyama (12-3)

J1e	M15w	Kakizoe (7-8)
J1w	J3e	Kitazakura (8-7)
J2e	M14e	Tosanoumi (5-10)
J2w	J6e	Shimotori (9-6)
J3e	J2e	Wakakirin (7-8)
J3w	M11w	Tamakasuga (3-12)
J4e	J6w	Kasuganishiki (9-6)
J4w	J1w	Toyozakura (6-9)
J5e	M13w	Koryu (3-12)
J5w	J4w	Hakurozan (7-8)
J6e	J9w	Kyokunankai (9-6)
J6w	J3w	Hoshihikari (6-9)
J7e	J5e	Kotokasuga (6-8-1)
J7w	J14e	Aran (10-5)
J8e	J12e	Mokonami (9-6)
J8w	J11e	Shirononami (8-7)
J9e	J11w	Ryuo (8-7)
J9w	J13w	Sagatsukasa (9-6)
J10e	J7w	Ushiomaru (6-9)
J10w	J5w	Hakuba (5-10)
J11e	J12w	Ichihara (8-7)
J11w	J10e	Otsukasa (7-8)
J12e	J14w	Tosayutaka (9-6)
J12w	J8w	Kirinowaka (6-9)
J13e	J7e	Kaiho (5-10)
J13w	Ms1w	Yamamotoyama (6-1)
J14e	Ms2w	Asofuji (5-2)
J14w	Ms3w	Wakatenro (4-3)

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Everybody has his own wierd Banzuke (I am not worthy...) , here's mine:

But no one can surpass the kyokai in terms of weirdness...

Edited by Manekineko
quote fix

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