Next college rikishi to reach sekiwake

[Asashosakari 19,543]

For all the hoopla about the rising number of college rikishi in sumo, the current wave (since about 2004) so far hasn't really made a big splash at the very top of the banzuke, unlike their mid-90s predecessors. As it happens, I noticed the other day that there have been exactly 19 rikishi with college sumo experience in history who have reached at least sekiwake and it's been quite a while since the most recent one, so it might be interesting to speculate who's going to be the one to make it a nice round 20, and when that's going to happen.

Unlike a komusubi promotion, earning sekiwake usually requires a steady run of success against top competition (the occasional exception like Hayateumi or Hokutoriki notwithstanding), and thus the number of college rikishi topping out at komusubi is nearly as large (16 guys, Takekaze the most recent one, although of course he could still reach sekiwake) as the number of those who progressed further.

I've tried to include pretty much everyone with a non-negligible shot at making it, which means the list is prospect- rather than veteran-heavy (sorry Kakizoe fans), but there's always the "Other" choice if I missed your favourite. Listed in brackets are each candidate's age, highest rank and current rank.

FWIW, these are the most recent 10 guys to reach sekiwake:

#10: 1988.01 Tochitsukasa

#11: 1994.03 Musoyama

#12: 1997.05 Tosanoumi

#13: 1997.07 Tamakasuga

#14: 1997.11 Dejima

#15: 2000.03 Miyabiyama

#16: 2000.11 Hayateumi

#17: 2001.01 Kotomitsuki

#18: 2001.03 Tochinonada

#19: 2004.01 Tamanoshima

Edited July 2, 2008 by Asashosakari

[Randomitsuki 2,831]

Hm, very tough one.

First of all, I was always wondering how one (you) knows who is a college rikishi and who not. E.g., just from his age at hatsu-dohyo I would have guessed that Toyohibiki is a college rikishi, but from his exclusion on your list I gather that he obviously isn't (he would have even topped my list).

That being said, I voted for Tokitenku in 2009. I do not expect any of the "established prospects" (Futeno, Homasho, Tokitenku) to stay sekiwake, but when Kaio and Chiyotaikai have retired, there will be times again when you get a sekiwake promotion with a good portion of luck. And since Tokitenku appears to be the strongest of this trio, he might just make it.

As for the non-Makuuchi, my latest talent estimations (pre-Natsu) see Tosayutaka as the most likely candidate to become sekiwake one day. A rough estimate would be early 2010.

[Fay 1,677]

I have the same difficulties, never know who is a college rikishi and who isn't.

Anyway, I go with Minami and Terashita for the ones who aren't sekitori yet. In 2011 (Whistling...), hopefully nobody remembers my voting then, when I'm wrong.

Edit: Oha, I can only vote for one of them .... so I go with Terashita

Edited July 2, 2008 by Fay

[Asashosakari 19,543]

First of all, I was always wondering how one (you) knows who is a college rikishi and who not. E.g., just from his age at hatsu-dohyo I would have guessed that Toyohibiki is a college rikishi, but from his exclusion on your list I gather that he obviously isn't (he would have even topped my list).

I wouldn't say "obviously", since an omission on my part is just as likely. (Whistling...) (I almost forgot to list Takekaze even though I even mentioned him in the text...) At any rate, IIRC Toyohibiki was working odd jobs for a while after high school but never attended college.

A good resource is the (sadly no longer updated) list of active college rikishi at SFM.

Edit: Ah, and since I didn't actually vote until now - I'm going with Ichihara in 2010. My darkhorse pick from makushita would be Matsutani.

Edited July 2, 2008 by Asashosakari

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

Looks like Sagatsukasa is missing.

He went to Toyo university and he's only 26 years old.

He'd be lucky to make makuuchi let alone sekiwake.

[Asashosakari 19,543]

Looks like Sagatsukasa is missing.

That omission was intentional.

He'd be lucky to make makuuchi let alone sekiwake.

And that's the reason. He's probably no worse than several guys I did list, but I've tried to leave out everybody who already seems stuck or at least with not much further upside (guys like Shimoda and Shirononami).

[aderechelsea 125]

haven't been around for a while and my "prediction instincts" are a bit rusty but i'll go with Tokitenku somewhere in 2009.

and hello to all ... missed you guys ... (and gals) (Whistling...)

[Jakusotsu 6,017]

and hello to all ... missed you guys ... (and gals) :-)

Have You been away? (Whistling...) ;-) (Doing a wave...) :-)

Seriously: welcome back! And please stop vanishing every other year.

[Fay 1,677]

yes, welcome back!

[That-Satsu-Guy 1]

Wow, somebody picked Homasho!

What a blast from the past!!!

I rarely hear Homasho and sekiwake in the same sentence nowadays...

Well, after he makes komusubi and then holds onto komusubi, I'll reconsider.

I self-consciencely picked Ichihara but I'm worried that none of these guys have it in them.

I think the numbers in this poll so far are pretty reflective of reality.

Tokitenku, Futeno, Kimurayama...

Even the vote for Homasho makes sense considering that all of these guys are unlikely.

Homasho's not that bad, after all...

Tokitenku has gotten the closest to sekiwake, but there is room for doubt...

That's why I went with Ichihara. An unproven rikishi seems more likely to me than one that has consitently come up short.

[higginbotham 0]

but I've tried to leave out everybody who already seems stuck or at least with not much further upside (guys like Shimoda and Shirononami).

and Yoshikaze...

[ilovesumo 12]

Wee...had no idea there are so many right now...

But I have no answer for the poll...

@ adere >:-(

[Asashosakari 19,543]

Time to pull this poll up top as I was just talking about it, and the five-year anniversary of the last promotion just passed...

but I've tried to leave out everybody who already seems stuck or at least with not much further upside (guys like Shimoda and Shirononami).

and Yoshikaze...

Well, I for one thought that Yoshikaze wasn't stuck yet when I made this poll, so I didn't exclude him. Nice to see him turn things up over the last few basho. (Whistling...)

Not a great half-year for most of the guys who received multiple votes. Favourite Tokitenku fell into a near-bottomless pit of makekoshis and I doubt he'd collect 12 votes again. Homasho just had a very good basho, but with a very Asashoryu-ish vibe (very shaky at the start, much stronger at the end), so I'm not sure what to make of it...I think I'll be surprised by more than 8 wins at whatever rank he holds for Haru. Tosayutaka has all the goods but to me he seems prone to frequent mental lapses, and consequently he's been taking longer to get through juryo than most people probably expected. Ichihara/Kiyoseumi appears to be pretty much toast (so much for my vote...), and even with the shikona change his sumo looked as bad as ever in Hatsu basho. Even worse, Terashita apparently contracted an injury that will hold him out for the better part of the year. And YMY...well, who knows. Massive size or not, I'm starting to wonder whether his tachiai will play at a high makuuchi level.

Could be a while longer for this poll...

[Asashosakari 19,543]

At last!

[shumitto 418]

By the time this poll was created Myogiryu was still one year shy of his pro-debut. Michael Jackson, Claude Levi-Strauss, Gaddafi, Bobby Robson, Dennis Hopper and many others were still alive. Time flies. And Tokitenku is yet to deliver.

[Morty 1,498]

But Sagatsukasa made Makuuchi:)

[Asashosakari 19,543]

Well, while we're reviewing... ;-)

My darkhorse pick from makushita would be Matsutani.

Shohozan didn't get to sekiwake or even komusubi (yet), but he's arguably got closer than many others.