Day 15 results, yusho and sansho

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

The bout between the two Ozeki Kaio and Chiyotaikai did meet all expectations as Kaio could stop Chiyotaikai's strong charge at the tawara and drove him all the way back to the other side. No kettei-sen and a single jun-yusho rikishi is the surprising outcome of the basho after several days of big groups of rikishi leading.

Toki finally managed to win when it counts, beating Tochinonada in a bout for one komusubi slot. Takamisakari or Tosanoumi or both will be the other komusubi next basho.

Tamakasuga won to finish 7-8 at M15, but still looks likely to get demoted to Juryo as four Juryo rikishi earned promotion with Kaikzoe, Shimotori, Wakatoba and Yotsukasa, and Gojoro, Aogiyama, Kasugao are certain of demotion. Otsukasa should just stay in the top division.

Kaikzoe lost to Shimotori, but at that time he already was certain of the Juryo yusho as Kitazakura went all out against Oginishiki beating him with yoritaoshi. Toyozakura, Futeno and Kokkai finished the basho with a strong note, all at 9-6, and will be nearer to Makuuchi the next basho, the highest rank for all three of them.

--

Doitsuyama

Makuuchi yusho arasoi

Three losses Four losses Five losses Six losses Seven losses

------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------

Kaio Chiyotaikai Musoyama Takamisakari Kotoryu

Wakanosato Tokitsuumi Iwakiyama

Miyabiyama Kasuganishiki Tochisakae

Toki Kotomitsuki

Tosanoumi Kinkaiyama

Hokutoriki

Asasekiryu

Day 15

Juryo

Ms3w Sentoryu (5-2) hikiotoshi J10w Takanotsuru (5-10)

Ms3e Kotokanyu (3-5) tsukiotoshi J9e Tamanokuni (3-12)

J11e Kitazakura (8-7) yoritaoshi J7w Oginishiki (10-5)

J6w Futeno (9-6) oshitaoshi J8w Harunoyama (7-8)

J6e Kokkai (9-6) hatakikomi J11w Chiyotenzan (9-6)

J5w Toyozakura (9-6) oshidashi J13e Kotoiwakuni (5-10)

J12e Nakao (6-9) oshidashi J5e Senshuyama (5-10)

J4w Kobo (7-8) yorikiri J9w Wakakosho (6-9)

J12w Masutsuyoshi (10-5) yorikiri J3w Hayateumi (4-11)

J2w Shimotori (10-5) hikiotoshi J2e Kakizoe (11-4)

J8e Takekaze (9-6) hatakikomi J1w Tochinohana (4-11)

Makuuchi

J4e Wakatoba (10-5) oshidashi M14e Ushiomaru (7-8)

M15e Tamakasuga (7-8) hatakikomi M13w Wakanoyama (7-8)

J1e Yotsukasa (8-7) oshidashi M12w Kasugao (4-11)

M11w Tochisakae (8-7) oshidashi M10w Otsukasa (5-10)

M10e Iwakiyama (8-7) oshidashi M14w Aogiyama (4-11)

M15w Kinkaiyama (9-6) oshidashi M8w Tamarikido (6-9)

M13e Kotomitsuki (9-6) oshidashi M8e Kaiho (6-9)

M7w Hokutoriki (10-5) hikiotoshi M12e Kasuganishiki (9-6)

M5w Kotoryu (8-7) hatakikomi M11e Asanowaka (6-9)

M3w Takamisakari (9-6) uwatehineri M7e Tokitsuumi (9-6)

M3e Takanonami (6-9) yorikiri M4e Tamanoshima (5-10)

M6w Buyuzan (7-8) oshidashi M2e Kyokushuzan (4-11)

M9w Asasekiryu (10-5) uwatenage M1e Miyabiyama (10-5)

M4w Toki (10-5) hatakikomi K1w Tochinonada (7-8)

S1w Kyokutenho (6-9) yorikiri M6e Jumonji (6-9)

S1e Wakanosato (10-5) oshidashi O2w Tochiazuma (7-8)

O2e Musoyama (10-5) sukuinage M5e Tosanoumi (10-5)

O1e Kaio (12-3) oshidashi O1w Chiyotaikai (11-4)

List of yusho

Makuuchi: Kaio (4th)

Juryo: Kakizoe

Makushita: Hokutojo

Sandanme: Ryuyo

Jonidan: Kagaya

Jonokuchi: Hakunoryu

List of sansho

Shukun-sho: Takamisakari (1st)

Gino-sho: Tokitsuumi (3rd)

Kanto-sho: none

[QttP 0]

Tamakasuga won to finish 7-8 at M15, but still looks likely to get demoted to Juryo as four Juryo rikishi earned promotion with Kaikzoe, Shimotori, Wakatoba and Yotsukasa, and Gojoro, Aogiyama, Kasugao are certain of demotion. Otsukasa should just stay in the top division.

Why is it so clear that Gojoro with 4-11 at M9E will get demoted before Otsukasa with 5-10 at M10W or Ushiomaru with 7-8 at M14E?

[Kashunowaka 300]

Tamakasuga won to finish 7-8 at M15, but still looks likely to get demoted to Juryo as four Juryo rikishi earned promotion with Kaikzoe, Shimotori, Wakatoba and Yotsukasa, and Gojoro, Aogiyama, Kasugao are certain of demotion. Otsukasa should just stay in the top division.

Why is it so clear that Gojoro with 4-11 at M9E will get demoted before Otsukasa with 5-10 at M10W or Ushiomaru with 7-8 at M14E?

It's not that obvious, I agree. But nominally Gojoro should be demoted 7 rungs, i.e. to M16 (or J1), but Otsukasa and Ushiomaru should end up at M15. In any case, Gojoro should be demoted below Otsukasa.

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

Tamakasuga won to finish 7-8 at M15, but still looks likely to get demoted to Juryo as four Juryo rikishi earned promotion with Kaikzoe, Shimotori, Wakatoba and Yotsukasa, and Gojoro, Aogiyama, Kasugao are certain of demotion. Otsukasa should just stay in the top division.

Why is it so clear that Gojoro with 4-11 at M9E will get demoted before Otsukasa with 5-10 at M10W or Ushiomaru with 7-8 at M14E?

It's not. I wouldn't bet on who gets demotion. I'm not even sure how I will guess in GTB. Gojoro and Otsukasa is pretty much touch and go and the same can be said for Ushiomaru. My guess would be that after Kasugao, Asanowaka and Tamakasuga, Otsukasa is the fourth man to go. But I'll probably change my mind till I enter my GTB...

Edited July 20, 2003 by Yubiquitoyama

[Asashosakari 18,786]

It's not. I wouldn't bet on who gets demotion. I'm not even sure how I will guess in GTB. Gojoro and Otsukasa is pretty much touch and go and the same can be said for Ushiomaru. My guess would be that after Kasugao, Asanowaka and Tamakasuga, Otsukasa is the fourth man to go. But I'll probably change my mind till I enter my GTB...

My first thought was to agree with this, guessing that Otsukasa will be demoted as the fourth. Normally, Ushiomaru should be safe, if only because they've been really lenient on 7-8 rikishi lately, compared to ones with bigger make-koshi.

On the other hand, Ushiomaru lost against Wakatoba on senshuraku (his only bout against a Juryo rikishi), and if that was supposed to be an outright exchange bout like Yotsukasa-Kinkaiyama in May...hrmmm. Yotsukasa wasn't in "regular demotion territory" for a 6-9 either, but they still did it due to his senshuraku loss against the Juryo yokozuna.

Edit: Not sure if it would make any difference to the demotion considerations of the Kyokai, but Gojoro beat Otsukasa, and Otsukasa beat Ushiomaru in their match-ups. (Gojoro and Ushiomaru did not fight each other.)

[...] four Juryo rikishi earned promotion with Kaikzoe, Shimotori, Wakatoba and Yotsukasa

Yay for Wakatoba. (Sigh...) I stated a few months ago that I was hoping for him to make it to Makuuchi soon, but I didn't expect him to do it quite so quickly. Well done. (Welcome...) Also yay for Kakizoe...looks like the time he spent in upper Makushita (fairly long for a Ms Tsukidashi starter) made him a pretty complete rikishi, so while I don't quite see him go zensho in the next 30 months as Zenjimoto does (Applauding...) I do hope for lots of good things from him now. (Welcome...)

Edited July 20, 2003 by Asashosakari

[Zentoryu 154]

Gojoro's record indicates a drop to about J1. Otsukasa's a drop to about M15 in pure banzuke making terms. But the kyokai almost never does what we expect them to do with Banzuke making, so who knows.

My bet is the injured Gojoro ends up in Juryo come September, while Otsukasa gets to stay in Makuuchi. At this point, I just don't see him (Otsukasa) dropping. His record just isn't bad enough.

Edited July 20, 2003 by Zentoryu

[Takanobaka 0]

Toki finally managed to win when it counts, beating Tochinonada in a bout for one komusubi slot. Takamisakari or Tosanoumi or both will be the other komusubi next basho.

Seems kind of unlikely that it would end up that way. Don't forget Dejima is already guaranteed a spot in Komusubi, and 10-ho needs to get dropped as well. Thus, I think they'll promote robocop as a third Komusubi, but I doubt they'll make Toki a fourth for a crowded house. Then again, I'm usually wrong with these kinds of things....

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Seems kind of unlikely that it would end up that way.  Don't forget Dejima is already guaranteed a spot in Komusubi

No, unfortunately, he isn't. He did not have kosho status, so he'll drop down to mid-Maegashira.

and 10-ho needs to get dropped as well.

Kyokutenho went 6-9, that record practically guarantees a demotion to at least M1 these days, so both Komusubi slots are open. My bet's on Toki for Ke and Takamisakari for Kw (and no third spot), but who knows...might as well be Tosanoumi as Kw, or indeed three Komusubi.

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

Don't forget Dejima is already guaranteed a spot in Komusubi (...)

Dejima had no kosho on his side so he'll drop down close to the very bottom of makuuchi.

[Dejimasama 0]

Oh the sadness of watching Dejima drop again. I can only hope he will rise back up quickly. Based on performance and quality of victories I would have to think Toki is on the edge of becoming a Komosubi while Takamisakari and Tosanoumi should be locks for the spot.

[Kintamayama 44,354]

Gojoro's record indicates a drop to about J1. Otsukasa's a drop to about M15 in pure banzuke making terms. But the kyokai almost never does what we expect them to do with Banzuke making, so who knows.

My bet is the injured Gojoro ends up in Juryo come September, while Otsukasa gets to stay in Makuuchi. At this point, I just don't see him  (Otsukasa) dropping. His record just isn't bad enough.

No prescedence for a 4-11 dropping from M9. He'll be 15 West.Ootsukasa at M10 with a 5-10 is safe in my mind as well. I'm not so sure there will be 4 promotions. We shall see.

Edited July 20, 2003 by Kintamayama

[Kashunowaka 300]

Don't forget Dejima is already guaranteed a spot in Komusubi (...)

Dejima had no kosho on his side so he'll drop down close to the very bottom of makuuchi.

Probably not to "the very bottom". Recently we've had sekiwake Takanowaka dropped to M6 and M2 Kotomitsuki dropped to M13 with 0-15 results, so my guess is that komusubi Dejima will be demoted to M7-9 somewhere.

[Kashunowaka 300]

Gojoro's record indicates a drop to about J1. Otsukasa's a drop to about M15 in pure banzuke making terms. But the kyokai almost never does what we expect them to do with Banzuke making, so who knows.

My bet is the injured Gojoro ends up in Juryo come September, while Otsukasa gets to stay in Makuuchi. At this point, I just don't see him  (Otsukasa) dropping. His record just isn't bad enough.

No prescedence for a 4-11 dropping from M9. He'll be 15 West.Ootsukasa at M10 with a 5-10 is safe in my mind as well. I'm not so sure there will be 4 promotions. We shall see.

We shall indeed :-) Perhaps Wakatoba gets to stay in Juryo.

[Rijicho 6]

(...) my guess is that komusubi Dejima will be demoted to M7-9 somewhere.

That high? Well, could be... I'd say something like M12 but what do I know? :-) I'm no GTB legend. :-)

EDIT: Oh, that was actually Kotoseiya speaking... :-D

Edited July 20, 2003 by Rijicho

[Kashunowaka 300]

(...) my guess is that komusubi Dejima will be demoted to M7-9 somewhere.

That high? Well, could be... I'd say something like M12 but what do I know? :-D I'm no GTB legend. :-)

Neither am I - but recent demotions should be a good indication, I suppose.

[Kashunowaka 300]

Oh the sadness of watching Dejima drop again. I can only hope he will rise back up quickly. Based on performance and quality of victories I would have to think Toki is on the edge of becoming a Komosubi while Takamisakari and Tosanoumi should be locks for the spot.

I think that "quality of victories" will be totally irrelevant when the banzuke is made. Toki and Tosanoumi had the same record (10-5) and Toki was higher ranked, so he will be higher ranked on the next banzuke as well.

Toki's 10-5 at M4 also probably puts him above Takamisakari with 9-6 at M3, so I agree with Asashosakari that Toki should be East komusubi. The other komusubi slot(s) is harder to predict.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Perhaps Wakatoba gets to stay in Juryo.

Yup, that's possible. Would be a shame though. I'll maintain my justification for "Wakatoba over Ushiomaru" as it's a similar situation to the aforementioned "Kinkaiyama over Yotsukasa" last basho.

Yes, that's going to be my GTB guess, too. :-)

Probably not to "the very bottom". Recently we've had sekiwake Takanowaka dropped to M6 and M2 Kotomitsuki dropped to M13 with 0-15 results, so my guess is that komusubi Dejima will be demoted to M7-9 somewhere.

I agree, M7-9 sounds likely. FWIW, the rule-of-thumb for demotions from sanyaku (these days anyway) seems to be "one rank for each win under 8", so 0-0-15 generally means a drop of 8 ranks (i.e. S -> M7, K -> M8), give or take one rank depending on banzuke situation. Maegashira with 0-0-15 aren't treated nearly as favorable, even if they're ranked right in the meat grinder.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

No prescedence for a 4-11 dropping from M9. He'll be 15 West.

Precedence matters little if there are enough Juryo rikishi banging on the door. :-) FWIW, Terao was demoted from M9e to M16e after going 4-11 in Nagoya 1998. As we currently don't have a M16e...

For a bit more evidence that the Kyokai does what it wants anyway... :-D Kyokutenho was once demoted from M12e to J1e (a whopping 4 1/2 ranks, as there were Maegashira down to 16e) after a 6-9 in Haru 1998. I do agree though, as it looks this time, it's just as likely that they'll scrap the fourth promotion. We'll see. :-)

[Yubiquitoyama 4]

Gojoro's record indicates a drop to about J1. Otsukasa's a drop to about M15 in pure banzuke making terms. But the kyokai almost never does what we expect them to do with Banzuke making, so who knows.

No prescedence for a 4-11 dropping from M9. He'll be 15 West.Ootsukasa at M10 with a 5-10 is safe in my mind as well. I'm not so sure there will be 4 promotions. We shall see.

There are actually some precedence.

Last time was 2001.07 when Jumonji was unceremoniously dropped from M09e to J02e.

Still, it's of course a matter of case-to-case, but it's not something that hasn't happened before. Actually, one of the biggest reasons there are few closeby precedences is that there has been very few M09 who has gone 4-11. Before Jumonji it was Terao in 1998.07 (dropped to M16e) and before that Kototsubaki in 1993.03 (dropped to J01w) .

For 5-10 at M10w, Gojoro ended at M14e in January this year, Kasuganishiki at J01w last September, Chiyotenzan at M13w May 2002, Daizen J02w in July 2000, Kinkaiyama M14w May 2000, Otsukasa J01e January 2000 and so on... The precedences in themselves tell us little more than that there is nothing out of this world for neither a M09e with 4-11 or a M10w with 5-10 to drop to Juryo. Or to stay in Makunouchi. It's just a matter of trying to guess how the Kyokai will reason this time...

Edited July 20, 2003 by Yubiquitoyama

[Zenjimoto 40]

so while I don't quite see him go zensho in the next 30 months as Zenjimoto does :-)

Watch! :-D :-)

Cheers

Zenjimoto

[Feginowaka 53]

Gojoro's record indicates a drop to about J1. Otsukasa's a drop to about M15 in pure banzuke making terms. But the kyokai almost never does what we expect them to do with Banzuke making, so who knows.

No prescedence for a 4-11 dropping from M9. He'll be 15 West.Ootsukasa at M10 with a 5-10 is safe in my mind as well. I'm not so sure there will be 4 promotions. We shall see.

There are actually some precedence.

Last time was 2001.07 when Jumonji was unceremoniously dropped from M09e to J02e.

Still, it's of course a matter of case-to-case, but it's not something that hasn't happened before.

...

...

...

The precedences in themselves tell us little more than that there is nothing out of this world for neither a M09e with 4-11 or a M10w with 5-10 to drop to Juryo. Or to stay in Makunouchi. It's just a matter of trying to guess how the Kyokai will reason this time...

I am sure there will be 4 promotions.

There are enough make-koshi at the end of Makuuchi, who might be demoted, and there are 4 Juryo rikishi waiting for those Makuuchi places.

The only question is, who is the fourth demotee?

Otsukasa is safe, as Gojoro will be placed behind him for sure.

At first I thought, Ushiomaru should be safe, too. With his 7-8 he might get the M15w position.

But then I saw that he lost on senshuraku against Wakatoba.

If this was supposed to be an exchange bout Makuuchi-Juryo, then Ushiomaru is the unlucky loser and Gojoro the lucky loser.

As we all know, the Kyokai do what they want and you never know for sure, what is right or not.

The same goes for the second Komusubi spot.

I rolled the dice to decide and the number was 2, which means that I promote Tosanoumi.

It could be Takamisakari as well.

I see the chances for both of them 50:50.

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

I also see four promotions (as I wrote). The idea of the exchange bout sounds like a good argument, but somehow it doesn't really convince me. There are so many factors playing a role even on senshūraku that it's too difficult to clearly set up an exchange bout. I think this type of bout is set up to eliminate too grave differences in the numbers of suitable promotees and demotees. No matter the outcome of this bout, it tends to cancel one out on both sides instead of going one-sided.

This said, I rather believe in looking at the numbers than concrete bouts. This leads me to believe that Ushiomaru is rather save with a 7-8 at M14, especially compared to Gojōrō with a 4-4-7 at M9.

To the Komusubi topic I assume that Takamisakari will make it. He faced 9 Sanyaku with a 5-4 record compared to 4 with 1-3 for Tosanoumi. I think the Kyōkai has used such details in the past.

[Yoavoshimaru 0]

I were a GTB player, this thread would be very valuable (Shaking head...)

[Doitsuyama 1,173]

Speaking of GTB, I already made a tentative attempt at it. I find the banzuke extremely difficult to tell this time. There is practically no area in the Maegashira ranks where the order of the rikishi is clear. And on top of that we've got a lot of extreme results (0-0-15, 1-2-12, 2-12-1, two 4-11 and on the other hand several 10-5). In essence I got the impression that several rikishi are possible at almost every rank this time and the GTB is rather resembling a crap shoot. Any different opinions?

[Zenjimoto 40]

the GTB is rather resembling a crap shoot.

Hey, the GTB is ALWAYS a crap shoot! (Shaking head...)

Cheers

Zenjimoto