Latest stock exchange news - kabu, Oyakata transfers, etc.

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

On 19/08/2022 at 19:26, Akinomaki said:

No way to buy a kabu after retirement [...]

I can see Arashio smirking from miles away.

[Ripe 70]

13 hours ago, Jakusotsu said:

I can see Arashio smirking from miles away.

Not sure what you mean by that since he was never retired... he was expelled, forcing him to sue NSK asking to be reinstated which he was once he won his case in court.

[Jakusotsu 5,806]

Yeah, sure, but he still has the right to smirk, don't you think?

[Seiyashi 4,071]

One consequence of the "sanyo for everybody" trend we're seeing recently is Kakuryū may be in a deeper hole than we thought. It was presumed that he would take over Michinoku when ex-Kirishima reached retirement age, but his temporary kabu can't be swapped nor will it last the +5 years of a sanyo term (to say nothing of the time between now and ex-Kirishima's reaching of 65). The available kabu that we know of so far are Nishikijima (ex-Shōtenrō is only borrowing), Kitajin (which he jumped off), and Tomozuna (in Tatsunami-Isegahama); there don't seem to be any kabu available in Tokitsukaze on short notice.

Edited August 23, 2022 by Seiyashi

[themistyseas 226]

19 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

One consequence of the "sanyo for everybody" trend we're seeing recently is Kakuryū may be in a deeper hole than we thought. It was presumed that he would take over Michinoku when ex-Kirishima reached retirement age, but his temporary kabu can't be swapped nor will it last the +5 years of a sanyo term (to say nothing of the time between now and ex-Kirishima's reaching of 65). The available kabu that we know of so far are Nishikijima (ex-Shōtenrō is only borrowing), Kitajin (which he jumped off), and Tomozuna (in Tatsunami-Isegahama); there don't seem to be any kabu available in Tokitsukaze on short notice.

A couple optimistic counter-points:

• It doesn't look like available kabu within an ichimon is much of a problem anymore, with names flying almost at will across families (the defections from the isegahama group over the last decade or so seemingly contributing an awful lot to this)
• Unless I'm mistaken, Kakuryu is the Tokitsukaze family's only Yokozuna since Kashiwado. And if I'm not mistaken, before Shodai the last Ozeki from the ichimon was Kirishima himself. Surely they are not going to let Kakuryu roll out of the kyokai after 5 years. But given the sanyo-for-all, it does present the question of who the makeweight might be in order to retain the former Yokozuna. Ex-Toyonoshima's seat getting hotter is pretty unfathomable - but if the bizarre Takashima move is actually to Isenoumi and not a typo, maybe that was designed to eventually free up the slot within the ichimon for Kakuryu?

[Kintamayama 44,350]

Ooyama Oyakata has retired finally, a month before his 70th birthday. He was the kimarite guy for many years, his time to shine was back in 2000 when he was the central force behind the kimarite shake-up, adding 12 new kimarites to the 70 already in place, borrowing stuff from the Edo era.  He did a lot of moving around heyas after he retired, heading the now defunct Ooyama beya, then joining Takasago, Azumazeki, and finally Hakkaku. 

[Seregost 130]

46 minutes ago, Kintamayama said:

Ooyama Oyakata has retired finally, a month before his 70th birthday. He was the kimarite guy for many years, his time to shine was back in 2000 when he was the central force behind the kimarite shake-up, adding 12 new kimarites to the 70 already in place, borrowing stuff from the Edo era.  He did a lot of moving around heyas after he retired, heading the now defunct Ooyama beya, then joining Takasago, Azumazeki, and finally Hakkaku. 

Maybe we won't see him anymore in Sumo Prime Time 

[Asashosakari 18,786]

Exact date of retirement August 31st, according to Nikkan (gotta be clear for the DB).

Edited September 2, 2022 by Asashosakari

[Chartorenji 235]

any guesses on who's potentially going for the spot then?

[Akinomaki 39,770]

10 hours ago, Kintamayama said:

Ooyama Oyakata has retired finally, a month before his 70th birthday. He was the kimarite guy for many years, his time to shine was back in 2000 when he was the central force behind the kimarite shake-up, adding 12 new kimarites to the 70 already in place, borrowing stuff from the Edo era. 

at work for the kimarite department: Aki 2009 in the video room, showing the rare sototasukizori at sumo school Aki 2016

o o

[themistyseas 226]

Just had a bit of a shock when browsing the DB: the sanyo-for-all policy could be felt a bit more intensely and further down the road.

We've had several sanyo retirements this year, but right now the oldest member of the Kyokai (Minezaki/ex-Misugiiso) is 66, so assuming no early exits, there will be almost four full years before we see any openings pop up from the current crop of sanyo

The problem with that is that in that same time period, NINE oyakata will be apparently eligible to become sanyo: Kagamiyama and Irumagawa in 2023, followed by Michinoku and Hanakago in 2024, Isegahama, Otake, Jinmaku, and Shibatayama in 2025 and Tokiwayama in 2026. Those who are stablemasters from that group already have their likely successor in the heya as an oyakata with the exception of Otake, Shibatayama and Tokiwayama, and none of those stables has an active rikishi who looks likely to hang up their mawashi to succeed them at that point. So there doesn't look like much chance of a succession like we saw recently at Arashio from any of those stables, which probably increases the likelihood of the shisho becoming sanyo internally (like Miyagino) or after a merger elsewhere (like Minezaki).

Even under traditional circumstances, it's not sustainable to only have 2 names open up a year. I know it's unlikely, but I'm not sure what kind of carnage we're going to be looking at when you have the possibility of zero names becoming available for four more years?

I also wonder if the Kyokai can financially sustain or politically enact growth to 110 members, for example.

[Yamanashi 3,724]

5 hours ago, themistyseas said:

Even under traditional circumstances, it's not sustainable to only have 2 names open up a year. I know it's unlikely, but I'm not sure what kind of carnage we're going to be looking at when you have the possibility of zero names becoming available for four more years?

On the bright side (if there is one), this will be a one-time problem, since every Oyakayta will be getting five years older during this five-year-transition.  Also, you will still have members leave "early" (before age 70) for whatever reason.

What worries me (as it does you) is the age ranges of the current kabu list.  Approximate numbers are: 7 are >65, 15* are 60-65, 9 are 55-60, and 19 are 50-55.  While those numbers will only decrease (God forbid), there could be a real tough time during this 5-year period if 15 65-year-olds take a sanyo while only 7 roll off.

*Irumagawa, Kasugano, Sakaigawa, Otake, Kumegawa, Shiratama, Shibatayama, Hanakago, Tokiwayama, Isegahama, Kagamiyama, Katsunoura, Michinoku, Jinmaku, Nishikido

 

[Gurowake 3,915]

We thought it was only going to be a one-time problem 5 years ago or whenever it started, but I guess it wasn't sanyo-for-all then.

It won't necessarily be a one-time problem if there are times when less oyakata want to remain on as sanyo.  The current wave of them reducing the number of open kabu might also cause the Kyokai to tell people "no", assuming they can do that.

[Yamanashi 3,724]

4 hours ago, Gurowake said:

We thought it was only going to be a one-time problem 5 years ago or whenever it started, but I guess it wasn't sanyo-for-all then.

It won't necessarily be a one-time problem if there are times when less oyakata want to remain on as sanyo.  The current wave of them reducing the number of open kabu might also cause the Kyokai to tell people "no", assuming they can do that.

Well, that's the rub, isn't it?  Go through five years of hell and then everything works at least as well as it did before.  The only thing that might make it worse is if the NSK panics and changes it either way, leading to a "kabu desert" or a "super-glut" situation.  I know where my money is.

[themistyseas 226]

21 hours ago, Yamanashi said:

The only thing that might make it worse is if the NSK panics and changes it either way, leading to a "kabu desert" or a "super-glut" situation.  I know where my money is.

The problem we have mathematically is that the current set of 105 names was based on the names turning over roughly every 30 years based on whatever the average retirement age is for a rikishi (probably around 3.5 names a year becoming free, which frankly - based on gut feel only - seems pretty reasonable given that we get about that many notable names retiring each year). If it's every 35 years then you need to account for the extra names per year that need to change hands. There are probably a handful of sensible solutions that don't feel especially radical and wouldn't disturb the ecosystem or the culture of sumo too much:

1) cap the number of sanyo - don't they also do this with sewanin and wakaimonogashira?

2) lower the sanyo retirement age to 68 - three years should be enough to offer guidance and support to new shisho in an official capacity. you could soften this slightly by saying those who serve on the board of directors can remain until 70 (although it's less likely they're the ones that need to the additional income from remaining employed).

3) reinstate jun-toshiyori where a myoseki is unavailable and retiring rikishi meets a very high performance threshold (maybe it's sanyaku or 45+ as sekitori) to give them time to remain in the kyokai while they acquire a name

4) revive additional edo/meiji-era elder names for use as kabu - there seem to be a handful that would still maintain the history and traditions of sumo. you could issue 10 more on an as needed basis (but no more than 3-4 in a year) over the next 5 years and bring the total to 115 which wouldn't seem problematic in an era where everyone is working to 70. this would also keep the average of annually expiring names a little more consistent, and any additional stables that are able to be launched could help replenish the shrinking number of rikishi in the sport (given that a number of the current stables either rarely recruit or simply don't recruit).

More radically you could also cap the number of oyakata in a heya which would set the cat amongst the pigeons a bit in terms of stock market activity - there is no sensible reason why Isenoumi beta, with one aging sekitori and ten rikishi of whom none are likely to even reach Juryo (apart from maybe Arauma), requires seven coaches (making Takashima's move even more baffling).

Edited September 14, 2022 by themistyseas

[Sue 481]

Another option: give ichidai toshiyori to anyone with sanyo, and have them give up the kabu they're holding, with either a 3-year or 5-year sanyo term. That takes sanyo all the way out of play in the supply and demand for kabu.

[Seiyashi 4,071]

1 hour ago, themistyseas said:

(probably around 3.5 names a year becoming free, which frankly - based on gut feel only - seems pretty reasonable given that we get about that many notable names retiring each year)

I agree with most of your proposals making a fair amount of sense, but in a lead up to one of my own, the one thing with this is: do your notable names match up with the actual retirements? For instance, off the top of my head for the recent batch of COVID-delayed oyakata danpatsu, Asahishō, Chiyootori, and - at a bit of a stretch - Kotoyūki, wouldn't by my standards count as notable names. Of a list of 15 retirees over 3 years (so 5 a year, almost 50% more than your 3.5 average), that cuts off 3 for 12, or 4 a year, which is still about half a rikishi too much.

The brutal solution I have in mind is, remove jūryō basho from counting towards a rikishi's qualifying basho, or spike up the number of basho in makuuchi, etcetc. But there are any number of rather reasonable solutions to this. 

The other point I wanted to make was, what are the NSK's motives behind the sanyo for all policy? Is it just going to be a new retirement age in all but name given longer modern life expectancies, or do they genuinely believe that there is a point to the sanyo that they are awarding over getting in fresh blood? And to play devil's advocate to myself, is this just the Japanese reflection of the preference for seniority, or maybe the sumo version of amakudari?

[rhyen 1,809]

13 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I agree with most of your proposals making a fair amount of sense, but in a lead up to one of my own, the one thing with this is: do your notable names match up with the actual retirements? For instance, off the top of my head for the recent batch of COVID-delayed oyakata danpatsu, Asahishō, Chiyootori, and - at a bit of a stretch - Kotoyūki, wouldn't by my standards count as notable names. Of a list of 15 retirees over 3 years (so 5 a year, almost 50% more than your 3.5 average), that cuts off 3 for 12, or 4 a year, which is still about half a rikishi too much.

The brutal solution I have in mind is, remove jūryō basho from counting towards a rikishi's qualifying basho, or spike up the number of basho in makuuchi, etcetc. But there are any number of rather reasonable solutions to this. 

The other point I wanted to make was, what are the NSK's motives behind the sanyo for all policy? Is it just going to be a new retirement age in all but name given longer modern life expectancies, or do they genuinely believe that there is a point to the sanyo that they are awarding over getting in fresh blood? And to play devil's advocate to myself, is this just the Japanese reflection of the preference for seniority, or maybe the sumo version of amakudari?

How about checking out the ichimon distribution of the Sanyo?

[Seiyashi 4,071]

30 minutes ago, rhyen said:

How about checking out the ichimon distribution of the Sanyo?

4 Nishonoseki, 2 Tokitsukaze, and 1 Tatsunami (Magaki). The next five years include 6 Nishonoseki, 3 Tokitsukaze, 3 Dewanoumi, and 1 Tatsunami. You think it's a joint power grab - or at least an attempt at power denial - by Nishonoseki and Tokitsukaze at the expense of the other ichimon?

[Asashosakari 18,786]

8 hours ago, themistyseas said:

The problem we have mathematically is that the current set of 105 names was based on the names turning over roughly every 30 years based on whatever the average retirement age is for a rikishi (probably around 3.5 names a year becoming free, which frankly - based on gut feel only - seems pretty reasonable given that we get about that many notable names retiring each year).

I'm not really sure what you were trying to say here. Both the number of kabu in circulation and the observed pre-sanyo turnover rate were merely separate accidents of history. Nothing in there was "based on" anything in the sense of conscious design to achieve a desirable outcome. If anything the introduction of sanyo itself might qualify as a design decision, which calls entirely into question the implied notion of this discussion that things were "good" before, are "bad" now, and need to be fixed in some way. As I think I've alluded to before, the Kyokai brass may very well see it as a feature that they get to be more picky now with who they allow to become a member.

[themistyseas 226]

2 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I'm not really sure what you were trying to say here. Both the number of kabu in circulation and the observed pre-sanyo turnover rate were merely separate accidents of history. Nothing in there was "based on" anything in the sense of conscious design to achieve a desirable outcome. If anything the introduction of sanyo itself might qualify as a design decision, which calls entirely into question the implied notion of this discussion that things were "good" before, are "bad" now, and need to be fixed in some way. As I think I've alluded to before, the Kyokai brass may very well see it as a feature that they get to be more picky now with who they allow to become a member.

Slightly poor wording from me and I'll own that - let's try again: we have 105 names in circulation with a system that until recently, turned them over roughly every 30 years. Absolutely I agree the number of kabu was not at any point tied to the retirement age, but I do think the data points are useful, because the average age that a rikishi retires and the mandatory retirement age are important pieces of the conversation. Accidents or not - those data points inform about how many names on average will free up (some years maybe zero, some years maybe eight, but still there's always an average in and out).

I don't know that I would say things were good before or are bad now, I think we're probably in the same place on that. We do however have to note that the maths have changed, which has a notable knock on effect. I think you just have to have a situation where there's continued employment through this system for the top names who can develop the future of the sport. It probably isn't an issue at all if retirement from active duty doesn't come with "get a name now or you're out forever." It's why I wonder whether the return of jun-toshiyori with a shorter grace period might help solve some issues.

I take your point that that they might like to be more picky about who comes in, although the devil's advocate view is that it could also be a self preservation move designed for the interests of a few over the needs of the whole (we can't really know). It does feel a bit weird to me that they might be picky at this exact moment about who's coming in if you look strictly at their contributions on the dohyo, because of the 8 "retirement age" rikishi in the top division (from Chiyotairyu and older), all of them except Sadanoumi and possibly Chiyotairyu have careers that not only allow them to enter the kyokai but open their own heya - which a surprisingly large amount of current kyokai members do not possess. 

With the new emphasis on rikishi health and oyakata health drills before basho, it also seems like you might want more 40 year olds and fewer 67 year olds along the hanamichi (do sanyo do blue coat duty at basho? i've never seen it in person). But I accept that's not going to be anything they are thinking about.

17 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

I agree with most of your proposals making a fair amount of sense, but in a lead up to one of my own, the one thing with this is: do your notable names match up with the actual retirements? For instance, off the top of my head for the recent batch of COVID-delayed oyakata danpatsu, Asahishō, Chiyootori, and - at a bit of a stretch - Kotoyūki, wouldn't by my standards count as notable names.

By notable I mostly meant people who qualify to take on an elder role, or even simply an ex-sekitori. Every basho we get a good number of retirements, but few if any are notable in the sense of any sumo achievements. If the Kyokai says "reached san'yaku once" is notable enough to qualify for a career extension as an elder, then that's good enough for me to say that Kotoyūki or Chiyootori had notable careers. Asahisho I'd agree is more of an edge case.

[rhyen 1,809]

4 hours ago, Seiyashi said:

4 Nishonoseki, 2 Tokitsukaze, and 1 Tatsunami (Magaki). The next five years include 6 Nishonoseki, 3 Tokitsukaze, 3 Dewanoumi, and 1 Tatsunami. You think it's a joint power grab - or at least an attempt at power denial - by Nishonoseki and Tokitsukaze at the expense of the other ichimon?

It is a hypotheses. Will need to dig up the previous table about current eligible sekitori. 

[Seiyashi 4,071]

41 minutes ago, rhyen said:

It is a hypotheses. Will need to dig up the previous table about current eligible sekitori. 

Roughly even across the ichimon, on first look.

[Asashosakari 18,786]

3 hours ago, themistyseas said:

I take your point that that they might like to be more picky about who comes in, although the devil's advocate view is that it could also be a self preservation move designed for the interests of a few over the needs of the whole (we can't really know). It does feel a bit weird to me that they might be picky at this exact moment about who's coming in if you look strictly at their contributions on the dohyo, because of the 8 "retirement age" rikishi in the top division (from Chiyotairyu and older), all of them except Sadanoumi and possibly Chiyotairyu have careers that not only allow them to enter the kyokai but open their own heya - which a surprisingly large amount of current kyokai members do not possess.

Honestly, it all could be as simple as a cost-cutting move. We know sanyo earn less than full-fledged oyakata, and I think there's also some indication that parts of the Kyokai's business have come to require - well, not fewer workers per se, but fewer members of the sumo world. Even just 10 years ago, the Kyokai's press department was (other than secretarial work) seemingly almost entirely staffed by oyakata. With the shift towards social media and more advanced publication methods in general (e.g. more video, less print), I'm fairly sure they're employing a sizeable number of civilians for those tasks now. I think we've also had some glimpses that the sumo school is more reliant on external lecturers for specialized topics than it was in the past. Other departments like the one in charge of jungyo might have less work to do in general and/or seen that work get done with more efficiency (even the Kyokai isn't stuck using 1980s technology on the business side, after all). There's also the lapsing of several sewanin and wakaimonogashira positions which might indicate decreased workforce requirements as well.

Of course, like any business era marked by downsizing efforts, that sucks in particular for those who happen to be entering the "job market" at that exact time.

That aside: I know we're all somewhat unclear on what the various sanyo guys actually do, but my impression at least is that they're largely meant to be veterans providing a steadying hand on the etiquette and traditions front as the sumo world tries to come to grips with the way it's variously pushed towards modernization, and what that means for acceptable rikishi (and other personnel) behaviour. Obviously a debate can be had on whether that (if accurate) is actually a good use of resources, or if they would be better off putting more young guys in positions of responsibility.

More generally - and I'm sure I talked about that a few years ago, maybe the post was in the Harumafuji scandal thread that mysteriously vanished because I can't find any trace of my comment now - the Hakkaku era as a whole has had a reconstructionist vibe to me, even moreso since Takanohana was sent packing. Because he retired so young at just age 28, ex-Hokutoumi strikes me as very much a 1980s guy in mindset and attitudes about Ozumo, even though he's only a few years older than people such as ex-Akinoshima and ex-Kotonowaka who the older denizens of this forum still saw competing well into the 2000s. During the big wave of scandals from about 2006 to 2011, Hakkaku wasn't even much of a power player (I distinctly recall being confused why an ex-yokozuna was so invisible and seemingly content just running his stable), and I can't help but wonder if his approach to running the good ship NSK is mainly informed by trying to avoid anything that he thinks could lead to public controversy, even if it results in negative long-term effects.

Edited September 15, 2022 by Asashosakari
Hakkuku older, of course, not younger

[Yarimotsu 522]

13 hours ago, Asashosakari said:

I can't help but wonder if his approach to running the good ship NSK is mainly informed by trying to avoid anything that he thinks could lead to public controversy, even if it results in negative long-term effects.

This was actually my take on the sanyo introduction when I first heard about it: The NSK was probably asked by the government to consider the idea, and went along with it to stir up as little controversy as possible. I think this might be another topic, similar to filling the banzuke, where this forum thinks longer and harder about the consequences than the NSK. That's just my speculation though.