Which of these will get to Ozeki quicker ?

[Bealzbob 0]

I wanted to start a poll but don't seem to have the option. Ho hum. Anyhoo, I'm just curious as to who you far more learned people think out of Homasho, Tochiozan & Kisenosato will reach the rank of Ozeki before the other 2. That is presuming that you think ANY of them will reach it.

I know that up to maybe the last 2 basho Kisenosato was the great Japanese hope but that his star has temporarily waned of late, and now these 2 young bucks have burst onto the scene.

So who will win the Ozeki race ? Homasho, Tochiozan or Kisenosato ?

[philafuji 1]

This won't answer you question, but your selection of possibles is good IMO.

I haven't seen or followed these individuals enough to make a selection.

Maybe another time.

Philafuji

[Bealzbob 0]

The reason I picked those 3 and not others is because they are the new kids on the block and I was also curious as to whether either of the newer 2 had 'overtaken' Kise in some people's estimations.

[aderechelsea 124]

This topic has been talked a lot of times in the past but it is always fun to see the people's picks after every honbasho, when they tend to get affected by the recent results.

My guess for "Next Ozeki" is in this particular order:

1. Homasho

2. Tochiozan (ok .. i admit i haven't seen much of him yet but looks REALLY promising)

3. Kisenosato (still young. He has some issues in his head but as soon as he matures he should do it. Perennial Sanyaku ala Wakanosato is a good bet too)

------------------------ below this line are the ("If only" Ozeki prospects)

4. Kotoshogiku (If only he put some variation in his sumo)

5. Ama (if only he was not fighting among "monsters" compared to himself)

6. Tokitenku (of only he was more aggresive)

7. Kotomitsuki (if only he was younger, and more impressive after getting a KK)

8. Miyabiyama (20 kg lighter would be good. When in "groove" he definitely looks like an Ozeki)

anyway .... i'll better go post some pics now. (Chucking salt...)

[Bealzbob 0]

Thank you aderechelsea. FWIW I think Tokitenku isn't a bad shout. The rest are, and imo will remain, 'if onlys'.

[Hananotaka 8]

I think you have to say Homasho right now, and hold off on Tochiozan at least another basho or so. I like Tochiozan. His sumo was freaky good this last basho. He didn't just win down in lower Maegashira, he dominated his bouts like a joi-jin coming off a kyujo. And his tachiai is fierce. Usually shin-nyuumaku guys get bewildered by even the low maegashira tachiai, but not Tochiozan, so that'll stand him in good stead when he gets up to the joi-jin. The only thing is, he hasn't faced an all joi-jin basho. That wall can't be underestimated.

Last basho was a real breakthrough basho for Homasho. Consistently facing sanyaku and upper maegashira, he did his own sumo and won 11 while doing it. He showed a clear adjustment and growth vs. the joi-jin, possibly while not quite 100%. The next step is getting kachikoshi at komusubi. If he does that, the sky's the limit.

[Kotoseiya Yuichi 3]

Bealzbob, polls can be created only in the Polls subforum to keep them centralized. I don't remember whether I assigned some minimum limit of sent messages before you can create a poll. It might have been changed since anyway.

[Xris 2]

I know it's a long shot but I would like to add Toyonoshima to the list of possible candidates. He IS getting stronger and he is young.

[s0101 0]

1. Homasho ;-)

2. Kisenosato (c'mon, make up your mind...)

3. Tochiozan (dark horse)

[kaiguma 0]

[Rearranging Aderechelsea's list because it is good]

1. Homasho (was #2 before Kissy's MK)

2. Ama (could do it in the next 6, but Homasho has better odds. both determined and mature enough, but Homey is a horse)

3. Tochiozan (he won't pout and moan when he hits his first wall. he'll be right back on for the next basho.)

3. Kisenosato (I don't think he's at all ready for an Ozeki push. he needs a year just to make Sekiwake.)

Only 3 of them will make it, so we will probably see a big O3/Kissy rivalry.

------------------------ below this line are the ("If only" Ozeki prospects)

5. Kotoshogiku (If only he put some variation in his sumo)

6. Tokitenku (of only he was more aggresive)

7. Miyabiyama (20 kg lighter would be good. When in "groove" he definitely looks like an Ozeki)

8. Kotomitsuki (if only he was younger, and more impressive after getting a KK)

anyway .... I'd better go look at Aderechelsea's pics now. ;-)

Edited March 28, 2007 by kaiguma

[Kaikitsune Makoto 203]

Homasho has unique defense and has gained power steadily. He is also too tuned up and may be prone to muscle tears as he has already been. He looks more and more powerful in normal yotsu too, something he didn't quite have 2-3 basho ago. Definitely a good prospect to become an ozeki. O3 doesn't have clear weaknesses if that predicatable and not quite optimally balanced throwing attempt he does at times isn't counted as one. Kisenosato has more weaknesses but is repairing those step by step. He will have to uphold the progress of getting less prone to morozashi if he wants to get into ozeki zone within next 2 years. All three have great tools to become ozeki, all have ozeki physiques or foundations for that and all have time. Both Kisenosato and O3 go for immediately attack and don't think defensively while Homasho plays partly his game via defense. O3 needs to be exposed to all sanyaku before his current level can be estimated. Especially his defense in yotsu against sanyaku will be crucial. Still, he can well be much stronger already in 1 year so maybe O3 is the fastest to ozeki.

It is totally fascinating that if things go well, we may soon have Homasho, O3, Kisenosato, Ama, Tokitenku, Baruto, Goeido, Kotomitsuki, Kotoshogiku as the bulk of lower sanyaku (unless some become ozeki but same thing). Of course that scenario assumes that Baruto survives. Then we should still have Aminishiki, Tamanoshima, Kokkai, MIyabiyama up there too. Satoyama, Sakaizawa, Wakanoho, Toyohibiki....the near future of makuuchi looks awesome.

[sildan 0]

1) Homasho: his sumo is very stable and has been a joy to watch. I think he's the kind of guy who can regularly put up big numbers at sanyaku.

2) Kisenosato: still losing some bouts he shouldn't. Still a bit erratic bout-to-bout. But in general, good sumo, and he always seems to come back better than before.

3) Tochiozan: just don't know yet. But this basho was really impressive.

[Azumashida 1]

Goeido is looking more and more impressive, IMHO his sumo is very complete now that he has improved his resistance to powerful oshi charges at tachi-ai. I also see quite a bit of charisma and class in him. I believe he could be at a comparable level as these three very soon indeed, but what do I know.

I would still see Baruto as the biggest potential among current non-ozeki, but of course there's a big question mark regarding his knee...

[Kintamayama 44,165]

Also spracht Kintamayama:

1. Miyabiyama

2. Houmashou

3. Tokitenkuu

4. Chiyotaikai (I hope he goes back to being an Ozeki..)

Ones who will never become Ozeki. Ever:

1. Kisenosato

2. Kotomitsuki

3. Kotoshougiku

4. Ama

5. Sugishita

[philafuji 1]

What are you peoples views on Tamanoshima?

I don't know what his age is. I had him on my Bench Sumo team and he did pretty good for the team.

This was my first time back to sumo in a long time so I have a lot of learning to do about the new rikishi's who were not around at the time.

I mentioned earlier on this subject that I had no idea about the people who might be promoted to Ozeki at sometime in the future.

Some one mentioned his name on one of the replies and that reminded me about him.

Thanks in advance for any replies.

Philafuji

[Peterao 3]

I can't believe nobody takes Kotomitsuki's promotion chances seriously. Wasn't Kaio a rather late bloomer? Did anyone think that Musashimaru would go on to become a dominant yokozuna after all those years as an ozeki?

I will go on record and say that Kotomitsuki will become ozeki within the next six basho.

[mazurao 0]

I can't believe nobody takes Kotomitsuki's promotion chances seriously. Wasn't Kaio a rather late bloomer? Did anyone think that Musashimaru would go on to become a dominant yokozuna after all those years as an ozeki?

I will go on record and say that Kotomitsuki will become ozeki within the next six basho.

I agree that Kotomitsuki is the only one who can make it to ozeki by the end of 2008. Still, his chances are well below 50%.

By 2009, all the old ozeki will be gone, leaving only Hakuho (yokozuna by then, I suppose) and Osh. So, the promotion guidelines will be relaxed quite a bit, and this will open the gates for the young guns.

I think Homasho will be the first to make it. Tochiozan is still an unknown quantity, but also looks good to make it. If Baruto recovers by 2008 (I hope so!), he will be in the running as well.

[Asashosakari 18,648]

I can't believe nobody takes Kotomitsuki's promotion chances seriously.

(In a state of confusion...) There are a number of people on the forum who think he has a shot at making it, they just haven't posted in this particular thread (yet).

Wasn't Kaio a rather late bloomer?

Let's put it this way: When Kaio was at Kotomitsuki's current age (30 years and 11 months), he'd already been Ozeki for almost three years (2 years and 9 months, to be exact).

Did anyone think that Musashimaru would go on to become a dominant yokozuna after all those years as an ozeki?

Ditto the above. Made yokozuna at 28 years and 2 months, almost exactly the same age that Kaio made Ozeki as it happens.

Kotomitsuki having a career breakout isn't just a matter of late bloom, it's expecting him to beat the usual aging path by pretty much five full years. Now, it's certainly not totally unheard of to earn an Ozeki promotion at 30+ years (Kirishima had just turned 31, for one), but what seriously works against him is that the joi-jin is in the process of getting younger and stronger, not older and weaker. I think Kotomitsuki (and Miyabiyama* and Wakanosato for that matter) missed his shot in the last two years, and the door is pretty much shut now.

(* Yeah, arguably Miya didn't miss his shot, he just couldn't convince the promotion committee last year despite going 34/3.)

[Peterao 3]

I can't believe nobody takes Kotomitsuki's promotion chances seriously.

(In a state of confusion...) There are a number of people on the forum who think he has a shot at making it, they just haven't posted in this particular thread (yet).

I thought it was obvious that "everyone" was in the context of all who have responded to this post. My apologies for the confusion.

Wasn't Kaio a rather late bloomer?

Let's put it this way: When Kaio was at Kotomitsuki's current age (30 years and 11 months), he'd already been Ozeki for almost three years (2 years and 9 months, to be exact).

Did anyone think that Musashimaru would go on to become a dominant yokozuna after all those years as an ozeki?

Ditto the above. Made yokozuna at 28 years and 2 months, almost exactly the same age that Kaio made Ozeki as it happens.

Having experienced both ages, I don't think there is that much of a difference between 28 and 31. More telling to me is the amount of time they have been fighting in Ozumo and experiencing the natural wear-and-tear of daily sumo life.

Musashimaru was promoted to Yokozuna nearly 10 years after his Hatsu Dohyo.

Kaio was promoted to Ozeki about 12 1/2 years after his Hatsu Dohyo.

Kotomitsuki has only been in Ozumo for a little over 7 years, and avoided much of the lower level hazing by starting in Makushita and making it to Juryo in under a year. So I think that his situation is still very much comparable to that of Musashimaru or Kaio.

Kotomitsuki having a career breakout isn't just a matter of late bloom, it's expecting him to beat the usual aging path by pretty much five full years.

Your aging path estimate ignores the fact that Kotomitsuki himself started late and has had a much shorter time overall in sumo. I still think that Kotomitsuki has a good five years of strong sumo left in him, barring major injury of the type that has plagued Wakanosato.

IMHO, his challenges are more mental than physical at this point.

Edited March 29, 2007 by Peterao

[nirumaruyama 0]

I think Kotomitsuki has a better chance than Miyabiyama becoming ozeki. It's the mental edge that affects both.

I would like to see Homasho become ozeki.

The only thing I see Kisenosato becoming is the BumbleBee Man in the Simpsons, sadly.

It's probably too early to say anything about Tochiozan.

I remember when Takanowaka was sekiwake and there was noise about him becoming ozeki (although Doreen Simmons said he hadn't got the mental edge), one bad injury and he was in juryo.

[Kaikitsune Makoto 203]

Takanowaka still looks very strong physically but doesn't generate power. It is due to both knees being bad but still kind of strange to see his weak sumo.

Tamanoshima has enourmous power when he is able to generate it. Some 2 years ago he was squeezing the air out of Shoryu in keiko and Shoryu shouted "this rikishi is strong!". He is very big and muscular but is very weak at times. Gout attacks and muscle tears his burden. No way he would become ozeki but when he beats anyone, it is not a surprise. It is just Tamanoshima generating the power he possesses.

[aderechelsea 124]

Tamanoshima is one of the most underrated rikishi, but he is also (along with Tochisakae,Iwakiyama and Kasugao) the most underachieved rikishi.

Should have been permanently in sanyaku but he is a living example of Sumo's unforgiveness for injuries .... (In a state of confusion...)

I totally agree with Kaikitsune that whenever Tamanoshima beats an Ozeki-Yokozuna, it is should not be considered a surprise.

[Asashosakari 18,648]

Having experienced both ages, I don't think there is that much of a difference between 28 and 31.

Unless you were a professional athlete at the time, this is more than a bit silly.

More telling to me is the amount of time they have been fighting in Ozumo and experiencing the natural wear-and-tear of daily sumo life.

Musashimaru was promoted to Yokozuna nearly 10 years after his Hatsu Dohyo.

Kaio was promoted to Ozeki about 12 1/2 years after his Hatsu Dohyo.

Kotomitsuki has only been in Ozumo for a little over 7 years, and avoided much of the lower level hazing by starting in Makushita and making it to Juryo in under a year. So I think that his situation is still very much comparable to that of Musashimaru or Kaio.

You're missing the important distinction that the lower-division stuff really doesn't matter much here. What's more important is the time spent fighting top-level competition. It's no coincidence that the guys who hang around the sekitori ranks the longest tend to fall into two camps: Rikishi with a fighting style that is not conducive to suffering injuries (e.g. Asanowaka, Tosanoumi, to some extent Kotonowaka), and rikishi who spend only a minority of their time fighting in the joi-jin (e.g. Terao, Otsukasa, and again to a smaller degree Kotonowaka).

Kotomitsuki fails on both counts, and while I'm certainly open to the idea that collegiate rikishi are "younger" in general than middle-school starters, I don't see much empirical evidence that this amounts to more than a year, or two years at most, shifting the average "passing one's prime" age from 27/28 to 29/30. Even if Kotomitsuki is a late bloomer, he's very likely levelled off in his performance. And I don't actually believe he's a late bloomer; I think he's a guy lucky enough to (apparently) not have any of the chronic back and shoulder injuries that plague many other top-level sekitori, fighting in a sanyaku made up of Asashoryu, Hakuho, a bunch of half-crippled Ozeki, and a group of youngsters who aren't yet mature enough in their sumo to beat him consistently (but soon will). He's riding that performance plateau for all it's worth, and good for him.

I certainly don't claim that Kotomitsuki is about to fall off the cliff - I can see him hanging around the joi-jin for another two years or so, and the lower parts of Makuuchi for a while longer, but the improvement necessary to become Ozeki? Sorry, no sale at this point.

[aderechelsea 124]

Having experienced both ages, I don't think there is that much of a difference between 28 and 31.

Unless you were a professional athlete at the time, this is more than a bit silly.

i was about to post the same thing...

[Tikozan 4]

Ones who will never become Ozeki. Ever:

5. Sugishita

(Shaking head...) With this idea, you can't do a mistake... ;-)