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Odoriou

Kyushu Banzuke prediction

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  Y e   Asashoryu	 (Y e, 13-2)
.O 1 e	Chiyotaikai   (O 1 w, 10-5)
.O 1 w	Kotooshu	  (O 2 w, 10-5)
.O 2 e	Tochiazuma	(O 3 w, 9-6)
.O 2 w	Hakuho		(O 1 e, 8-7)
.O 3 w  Kaio		  (O 2 e, 1-14)

 S e   Miyabiyama	(S e, 9-6)
 S w   Kotomitsuki   (S w, 8-7)
 K e   Kisenosato	(K e, 8-7)
 K w   Kokkai		(K w, 8-7)

M 01 e	Roho		  (M 01 w, 10-5)
M 01 w	Aminishiki	(M 03 w, 11-4)
M 02 e	Ama		   (M 06 e, 11-4)
M 02 w	Iwakiyama	 (M 05 w, 10-5)
M 03 e	Kotoshogiku   (M 07 w, 10-5)
M 03 w	Tokitenku	 (M 02 w, 7-8)
M 04 e	Dejima		(M 03 e, 7-8)
M 04 w	Futeno		(M 07 e, 9-6)
M 05 e	Takekaze	  (M 10 e, 10-5)
M 05 w	Kakizoe	   (M 08 w, 9-6)
M 06 e	Tochinonada   (M 05 e, 7-8)
M 06 w	Kyokutenho	(M 04 w, 6-9)
M 07 e	Baruto		(M 01 e, 4-11)
M 07 w	Hokutoriki	(M 13 e, 10-5)
M 08 e	Tamanoshima   (M 02 e, 4-11)
M 08 w	Kyokushuzan   (M 08 e, 6-9)
M 09 e	Toyozakura	(J 03 e, 11-4)
M 09 w	Takamisakari  (M 09 e, 7-8)
M 10 e	Asasekiryu	(M 09 w, 7-8)
M 10 w	Homasho	   (M 11 e, 7-8)
M 11 e	Toyonoshima   (M 06 w, 4-11)
M 11 w	Kakuryu	   (J 01 w, 9-6)
M 12 e	Kasugao	   (M 15 w, 8-7)
M 12 w	Kitazakura	(J 04 w, 10-5)
M 13 e	Tosanoumi	 (M 12 w, 7-8)
M 13 w	Hakurozan	 (M 10 w, 5-10)
M 14 e	Tochinohana   (M 13 w, 7-8)
M 14 w	Otsukasa	  (J 05 e, 10-5)
M 15 e	Tamakasuga	(M 04 e, 1-14)
M 15 w	Yoshikaze	 (M 12 e, 5-10)
M 16 e	Asofuji	   (J 01 e, 8-7)
M 16 w	Kasuganishiki (M 15 e, 6-9)

J 01 e	Ushiomaru	 (J 02 w, 9-6)
J 01 w	Takanowaka	(J 08 e, 11-4)
J 02 e	Shimotori	 (M 16 w, 7-8)
J 02 w	Katayama	  (J 03 w, 8-7)
J 03 e	Jumonji	   (M 11 w, 4-11)
J 03 w	Hochiyama	 (M 14 w, 5-10)
J 04 e	Satoyama	  (J 02 e, 6-9)
J 04 w	Tokitsuumi	(J 06 w, 8-7)
J 05 e	Ryuho		 (M 16 e, 4-11)
J 05 w	Tamarikido	(J 07 w, 8-7)
J 06 e	Oga		   (J 10 e, 9-6)
J 06 w	Tochisakae	(J 04 e, 6-9)
J 07 e	Ryuo		  (J 08 w, 8-7)
J 07 w	Tochiozan	 (J 11 e, 9-6)
J 08 e	Wakatoba	  (J 11 w, 9-6)
J 08 w	Daimanazuru   (J 09 w, 8-7)
J 09 e	Kaiho		 (J 06 e, 6-9)
J 09 w	Kobo		  (J 10 w, 8-7)
J 10 e	Wakanosato	(M 14 e, 0-15)
J 10 w	Masatsukasa   (J 09 e, 7-8)
J 11 e	Shunketsu	 (J 07 e, 6-9)
J 11 w	Kanbayashi	(J 13 e, 8-7)
J 12 e	Kyokunankai   (J 13 w, 8-7)
J 12 w	Sumanofuji	(J 14 w, 8-7)
J 13 e	Hokutoiwa	 (J 12 e, 7-8)
J 13 w	Mokonami	  (J 12 w, 7-8)
J 14 e	Sawai		 (Ms 06 w, 7-0)
J 14 w	Tamaasuka	 (Ms 03 e, 5-2)

(Disclaimer: This prediction was done by a computer program and I'd be very surprised if the banzuke committee uses the same logic.)

Sanyaku is a brainer this time... Inter-division pro- and demotions, too.

:-)

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(Disclaimer: This prediction was done by a computer program and I'd be very surprised if the banzuke committee uses the same logic.)

You've got that right! It'lll take some work to turn that into a gtb yusho! :-)

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Kyokushuzan half-rank demotion for 6-9? that doesnt work out imho... Homasho getting promoted for makekoshi looks strange too.

Edited by Andreas

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IMHO the Ozeki situation will be different. Without a real reason, they will not demote Hakuho from Oe

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There will be 2 or 4 Komusubis on the next Banzuke. They will promote Roho & Aminishiki or none of them. My guess is we'll have 4 Komusubis.

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Promoting Homasho in spite of finishing 7-8 was clearly a mistake, of course. :-)

But I really can't imagine 12 rikishi in sanyaku or 7 promotions from juryo (as suggested by Doitsu-san in day 15 results thread). :-(

Oh, this Kyushu Banzuke is really a brain-teaser... :-)

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IMHO the Ozeki situation will be different. Without a real reason, they will not demote Hakuho from Oe

He had the 2nd-worst record among the Ozeki, that's reason enough.

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Maybe 3 sekiwake ( Miyabiyama, Kotomitsuki and Kisenosato ) and 3 komusubi ( Kokkai, Roho and Aminishiki ).

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IMHO the Ozeki situation will be different. Without a real reason, they will not demote Hakuho from Oe

He had the 2nd-worst record among the Ozeki, that's reason enough.

Yes, Ozeki is different. It's not really a 'demotion' because he is still Ozeki. I believe that among returning Ozeki the one with the best record in the previous basho gets the O1E spot. I don't know what the tiebreaker is. Head-to-head? If so, that would favor Kotooshu.

You can't really demote any sanyaku so I bet they will add some sanyaku.

Is there any precedent for 4 komusubis? Or, maybe The Kid gets promoted to Sekiwake?

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Working on my first guess now...four Komusubi does have one drawback, namely that it empties out the mid-Maegashira ranks. Here's where I'm stuck:

Ama (M6e, 11-4)		  M1  Iwakiyama (M5w, 10-5)
Kotoshogiku (M7w, 10-5)  M2  Futeno (M7e, 9-6)
Tokitenku (M2w, 7-8)	 M3  Dejima (M3e, 7-8)
Takekaze (M10e, 10-5)	M4  Kakizoe (M8w, 9-6)
Baruto (M1e, 4-7-4)	  M5  Tochinonada (M5e, 7-8)
Tamanoshima (M2e, 4-11)  M6  Kyokutenho (M4w, 6-9)
Hokutoriki (M13e, 10-5)  M7

And now things melt down. Kasugao (M15w, 8-7) is the only remaining kachi-koshi in the division. Promoting him to M7w is nuts but probably unavoidable, but it invalidates the rest of my neatly planned guess...I've tried to not over-promote Takekaze and Hokutoriki, but Kasugao would actually fare much better than them despite getting two wins less. So maybe I'll have to drop Baruto/Tamanoshima/Kyokutenho a bit further, into the M6/M7 range. Hmm.

Still, I guess Toyozakura will have to jump all the way up to M8e. Unless there are only 2 Komusubi after all, but I really don't see that happening.

What a weird hoshitori this basho.

I don't know what the tiebreaker is. Head-to-head?

No, previous rank.

Is there any precedent for 4 komusubis?

The mid-90s regularly featured more than the minimum 2+2 lower sanyaku...partially because of a more permissive banzuke committee and partially because that era's group of joi-jin was unusually strong (Akinoshima, Takatoriki, Kaio, Tochiazuma, Kotonishiki, Musoyama, to name the most prominent ones). Four Komusubi is somewhat unusual (it last happened in 1999.03, and three times total in Heisei), but six lower sanyaku not that much (12 times from 1992 to 2000).

Edited by Asashosakari

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Still, I guess Toyozakura will have to jump all the way up to M8e. Unless there are only 2 Komusubi after all, but I really don't see that happening.

What a weird hoshitori this basho.

I guess that's a huge case of banzuke luck for Kasugao and the juryo KK then...

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looks like an interesting banzuke indeed ...

maybe it's time to enter again the GTB game ... i usually do better in weird situations :-)

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Juryo seems to be the exact opposite of the Maegashira ranks...10 KK and 21 MK (plus Wakanosato) among the Maegashira, but 19 KK to 9 MK in Juryo.

Worse than that, with the possible exception of Takanowaka, everybody in Juryo with a double-digit result is moving out of the division. The guys who stay are all between 6-9 and 9-6...

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What a weird hoshitori this basho.

I made my own draft now, and can only second that. Moving Kasugao and Toyozakura to M7w and M8e is actually a quite easy decision when you compare that with the mess from M8w to M12e.

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I made my own draft now, and can only second that. Moving Kasugao and Toyozakura to M7w and M8e is actually a quite easy decision when you compare that with the mess from M8w to M12e.

I'm solving that by leaving Takamisakari, Asasekiryu and Homasho at their ranks. :-) It's technically a demotion anyway due to the expansion of sanyaku.

Not that I think the Kyokai will actually do the same thing, of course...

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I made my own draft now, and can only second that. Moving Kasugao and Toyozakura to M7w and M8e is actually a quite easy decision when you compare that with the mess from M8w to M12e.

I'm solving that by leaving Takamisakari, Asasekiryu and Homasho at their ranks. :-) It's technically a demotion anyway due to the expansion of sanyaku.

Not that I think the Kyokai will actually do the same thing, of course...

Hmm, I did the same, and I thought the same.

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I'd also promote Ushiomaru to Makuuchi. Three and a half ranks behind Kasuganishiki, with records of 9-6 and 6-9 respectively. That should move the lower ranked guy ahead, methinks.

Edited by Oimeru

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Kisenosato for 3th sekivake, Roho for komusubi or Roho for 3th komubui or ............

something like this isn't possible?

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Next banzuke....

Yakurikishi

Yokozuna E: Asashouryu

Ozeki E: Chiyotaikai		   
Ozeki W: Kotooushuu
Ozeki E: Tochiazuma		   
Ozeki W: Hakuhou		
Ozeki W: Kaiou

Sekiwake E: Miyabiyama	  
Sekiwake W: kotomitsuki
Komusubi E: Kisenosato	
Komusubi W: Kokkai
Komusubi E: Rohou		   
Komusubi W: Aminishiki

I think that it might be 4 Komusubi.

Shinpan-bu might make 2 張出(Haridashi) Komusubi.

(Clapping wildly...)

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Kisenosato for 3th sekivake, Roho for komusubi or Roho for 3th komubui or ............

something like this isn't possible?

Possible is almost everything - that's exactly the problem. Having 3 Sekiwake and 3 Komusubi is possible, 2 Sekiwake and 3 Komusubi, 2 S and 4 K, 2 S and 2 K... ;-)

I, personally, would not promote the butt-shaker from Komusubi east to Sekiwake with 8 poor wins. But the Banzuke committee may have a different opinion on that.

Meanwhile I tried creating a Crowded-Sanyaku-Banzuke (4 Komusubi), too. But in that way it was nearly impossible to fill the many gaps between M 7 and M 12. My first attempt with only 2 Komusubi (as posted above) was really easy, compared to that. Most Rikishi found their deserved position, except about Roho not many compromises had to be made. So if the Banzuke committee does not want to argue about next Banzuke a whole night long, they should choose the easy way and give Roho only a half-rank promotion...

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So if the Banzuke committee does not want to argue about next Banzuke a whole night long, they should choose the easy way and give Roho only a half-rank promotion...
...and don't care about all hell breaking loose again with anti-gaijin accuses. Sounds good to me! :-D

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So if the Banzuke committee does not want to argue about next Banzuke a whole night long, they should choose the easy way and give Roho only a half-rank promotion...
...and don't care about all hell breaking loose again with anti-gaijin accuses. Sounds good to me! :-D

Yeah, as long as they don't read 'sumo talk' and avoid meeting Roho for a few years, they'd probably have no problem with it... :-D

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As much I studied the history of banzuke's I found that in every case where the need for extra slot emerged the slot was created. I don't see any other rules than the practical split-down of present banzuke and the results of Sanyaku rikishi's and the upper maegashira with substantial KK. Or could anyone argue with me? Is there 10 wins barrier to make extra Komusubi or 11 wins needed for extra Sekiwake?

But even with this rules Roho and Aminishiki should have Komusubi rank for next basho. To get the understanding what Kise's rank should be, I did the following query and found that in the case the Sekiwake doesn't give up the place the Komusubi shall keep his rank. BTW 11/71 basho results are quite similar to the present situation, look at Wajima's, Kurohimeyama's and Fujizakura's good results. The difference is the Komusubi Mienoumi's similarly excellent result.

So my guess is two Sekiwakes and four Komusubis.

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I'm wondering, what are the opinions on promotion to makuuchi? Toyozakura, Kakuryu, Kitazakura, Ushiomaru, Asofuji, Otsukasa should go up, in my opinion. But now I'm tempted to also promote Katayama, to stay in tune with the other guys (Kasugao!) who might make a huge jump.

The lower makuuchi is certainly a mess, if there are four komusubi. Everyone gets a full rank for free and some ridiculious promotions seem unavoidable...

Edited by Oimeru

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