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Posts posted by kaiguma

  1. Well isn't that sensible?

    And unsurprising: I can't even find milk in my own fridge...

    I prefer the 1st one. Arranged as goo's heya listings, but totally so much more useful.

    So what I am really missing is direct clickability... and I know that is not available on scgroup, so it's just another one for the wishlist. (Clapping wildly...)

  2. @ the comment Taikai couldn't get 10 wins anywhere in makuuchi:

    I wager he'd take 12/13 at the bottom and at least 10 just outside the meatgrinder. Not that I really want to see that... quite happy he has decided to hang it uo if he can't be repromoted straight away.

  3. While we are at it (Clapping wildly...) the only thing I have ever felt was missing form the dB is heya pages, similar to the ones available on goo. Of course I can always go there when I need them, but it would be cool if the rikishi profiles in the dB carried a clickable link to a list of active rikishi from each heya. I think that is slightly relevant to some of the capabilities of the customized search from scgroup.

    And scgroup was also my first data-site for sumo, even before goo. Thanks for your years of effort in running it!

  4. I posted elsewhere a differing opinion, but re-searched the dB and see that there is not precedence for the J4 promotion...

    still a tough call. I feel that they've been pretty hard-assed about demotion for at least the last year.

    My big question is about the S2 assumption made by a Japanese paper. It never occured to me on my first mock-up, and even after examining the big picture, it doesn't seem necessary. 10-5 from M2 is not a lock on a sekiwake rank and nor is 11-4 from M5 a lock on komusubi. Every case of demotion to S2 or SHD seems to include an undeniable promotion to sekiwale or 2 current sekiwake remaining with kk.

  5. Well I can certainly see Cage pulling off the upset. Add to that Kisenosato out of Sanyaku and a 50/50 (IMO) chance for Toyonoshima to miss promotion, and I think we may have to start the thread all over again after Hatsu.

    The way he looks at the end of kyushu I do not think he can be 100% healthy in order to be at his bes tin the first days by January.

  6. Hokutoriki (8-7) over Tochinoshin by hikiotoshi, 4.4 sec


    (Feeling might good about downing the new dynamo Tochinoshin.)

    "That guy, he is still 22 years old??? Awesome. His face reminds me of actor Nicolas Cage."


    Not worth tooting my own horn, but...

    I guess I misspelled his name.

  7. Toyohibiki lost to Miyabiyama to finish with 5-10, normally bad enough to warrant a juryo demotion, but since there are already four demotions and the promotion candidates Futeno and Sagatsukasa lost, my guess is that Toyohibiki will barely stay in makuuchi.

    Not seeing a banzuke making discussion thread anywhere, I hope this is not off-topic:

    I feel like promotion has really taken precedence over the past year or maybe more and not a very forgiving attitude toward demotions. I've noticed it most within each division, but I can't think of an example where someone "deserving" demotion avoided it. On the other hand I can think of many cases where someone is overdemoted to simplify the banzuke even if other solutions were there. And 8-7 from J4 has a pretty good track record for Makuuchi promotions.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see them drop Toyohibiki and bring up Sagatsukasa despite his loss on senshuraku.

  8. Well, speed isn't the ultimate indicator.

    Chiyonofuji might be the only one of his kind, but take a look at his career (scroll down past the stats to get a sense of how long it took him to make it)

    Oh and while you are in the database you should fool around with it - should be much more reliable than wikipedia.

    If I am following your method correctly, Chiyonofuji scores:

    17!, 18, 34, 33, 37

    I think others in the past have followed unpredictable trajectories. To me, your method is about as telling as a comparison of the number of sansho and kinboshi. There would be no clear resolution of what is desirable: the faster you make it to sanyaku is the more likely you will have very few kinboshi. Similarly a fast rise to ozeki will leave little time to earn sansho. Looking at both the timeline method and the prize/kinboshi figures, I think they seem equally inconclusive.

    However as a very broad rule of thumb you have a point, since the most extreme interpretation of my argument amounts to "anyone has the hidden potential to make it so the whole thing is pointless." I don't believe that to be true so there must be some way to try and parse the numbers. Clearly YMY will never be Yokozuna... or Takamisakari... What I do see in your data is that yokozuna are either young "young and fast" or "old and steady" so maybe Goeido has only a year or two to get his ass in gear if he'd like to fall into the first category.

  9. I was satisfied to see his henka greeted so poorly. The Kaionage looked pretty legit to me, but of course Mickey should have known better and guarded that arm. I'm not claiming it wasn't an intentional fall - rather that if it was intentional it looked pretty convincing... and on either side of that coin it is a little bit cheap to get the 8 this way.

    But all of this groaning about lifeless senshuraku and the other 14 days stank too? I really don't get it. It wasn't the most exciting basho, maybe even the least exciting of the year, but there always has to be a least exciting right? I wasn't all that let down...

  10. I voted 4-2.

    Hak: 3

    Asa: 1

    Osh: 1

    Haru: 1

    I don't expect Baruto to win one but he's maybe 50/50 to actually make it to ozeki by year's end. And good point that even Tochinoshin could make it if his momentum continues. For that matter if Kisenosato or any of the others can "turn the corner" and leave shenanigans behind, we may not see it coming...

    And don't forget that Miyabiyama finished with a jun-yusho and had a very strong one in 2006! ;-)

    EDIT: why "less than 1" and not zero?

  11. Brazilian Kaisei reached the makushita yusho playoff last basho to earn a huge promotion, and he didn't slow down yet, beating Matsutani for his second win this basho.

    Yaaaaay Kaisei! (Showing respect...)

    And so sorry I have fallen behind in my duties for the adoptees (Shaking head...)

    He definitely deserved a full report after getting a kettei-sen but I promise he will get a 2009 round-up along with Kaishin.

  12. I have no idea what the Kyokai does "officially", but my impression is that the press guys (including NHK) do tend to limit such statistics to makuuchi bouts only, perhaps because that's the only thing the general public cares about.

    Even narrower than that. The head-to-head stats refer only to meetings when both men were in makunouchi.


    Wait a minute Dorion, even inter-division bouts don't count? Like a visitor who can come from juryo and slay a makuuchi giant? He can even keep the kensho in escrow, right? But they don't consider that bout in the head-to-head?

    Asashoryu's 30-whatever "first-time meeting victories" streak comes to mind - it's makuuchi bouts only and it includes two guys he had already faced in juryo before, actually losing to one of them. (Trivia: Who was it?)

    If memory serves, it's Kotomitsuki! (Showing respect...)

    ok I knew we had discussed this before...

  13. him. But your mistake is understandable since everyone knows John Gunning looks just like Kaiho.


    Not to mention in the first pic he outweighs you by about 150 lbs.

    Maybe 100 lbs in the 2nd one considering it was right after the injury and before you decided to go for girth.

    By now you must be closing in on him! (Eh?)

  14. Major confusion takes place in the brain as the eyes behold a guy with moviestar-like looks, while the ears hear a delivery that is a cross between Donald Duck and Yoda.

    Haha he is really beginning to grow on me and it was obvious that he had his heart in it - not just a publicity stunt. I think with his voice he trying very hard to affect an American sports announcer accent, almost like a toned-down version of a UFC announcer.

  15. Uah.............I hope I won't dream of that.... (Eh?)
    Dream or not, you may have to make it a reality if you really want to be the first gaijin Okamisan!
    How comes there was a pic of Kaiho?

    Anything special in that bout? Injury? (Eh?)

    Actually that is not him. But your mistake is understandable since everyone knows John Gunning looks just like Kaiho.



    The mage is a wig.


    Yes, he is voracious... and tell him I want my left pinky back!


    Kak: "The real Taikai is back folks; this ain't no yaocho!"

    TKY200911160237.jpg Better Copy(just in case you need it for your folder dedicated to Kissy's bum)


    Proctology follow-up

    "And you're sure I put my hand there? It's on your memory chip?"

  16. Takamisakari picked up his usual 5, Kotooshu 3 and Harumafuji 2. YMY got his first win to also earn 2 kensho while Kotomitsuki and Kyokutenho picked up a single envelope each.

    Looks like his stock is down. We usually hear it referred to as "his usual 6-7."

    Or is that Aomori effect?

    (Aomori, a ferrie ride from Hokkaido, is on nearly the opposite end of the country from Fukuoka)

  17. Japan has seen a shrinking lower-class since maybe 8-10 years following WWII. Of course a middle class has its limits and Sumo saw more recruits during each of the little financial crises in Asia or Japan in specific. Maybe now with a global economic crisis and an abysmal job outlook in Japan we might see more recruits from the "new poor" of the middle class.

    And then there is the public exposure thing... Nishinoshima posted links to great clips from a National Geographic special on Wanpaku. Former Wanpaku champ Futeno says kids these days feel Sumo is uncool, but he doesn't get why they care so much what other people think about them.

    Yes, why would self-conscious kids dress in a skimpy mawashi to practice a sport their (great-)grandparents thought was da bomb? When now the new modern and decidedly not traditional sports of soccer(football) and baseball top the charts on most Japanese polls for favorite sport?

  18. (Eh?) Half empty? why?

    It's not really half empty, just the 2nd tier is nearly empty. Besides being a Kyushu thing, I think it might be a ticket price issue. The cheap seats look packed full. If the NSK were wise about it they would offer the first X number of cheap seats as 2nd tier and anyone coming in after that would get nosebleeds. Then they would probably have a full house on the weekends. Now the only question for me: are the Fukuoka folks so polite that they won't climb down into empty seats with a better view?

    On day 2 Hiro Morita made a rather pitiful plea to anyone in the southern islands watching the broadcast: please come see sumo live!

  19. As no one else has started this one:

    * NHK lists the record for Wakanosato vs Tamanoshima as 14-7 (adjusted for today's result) but the DB has 15-8 with full results for 23 meetings. 2 of these have both rikishi in Juryo but all 23 meetings are as sekitori and none are playoff matches or fusen. Do they really not count juryo bouts for the head to head? I'm sure that's been discussed before but if anyone knows why...

    * Hiro Morita usually gets nothing but criticism from me, and at the very best: pity. I'm certain that knowing him personally Doreen would have a totally different take and I've never meant any disrespect to Hiro.

    Maybe I'm getting soft, but I really enjoyed his day 2 commentary. He was very on point, rarely tongue-tied, and had no horrible miscalls on kimarite or the play-by-play. Even his normal annoying (to me) idiosyncratic comments seem to be absent! I assume by his English that he is not a 100% native speaker, and the critical 5% of missing vocabulary or reaction speed often causes a noticeable delay in his live calls and leads to (sometimes a barrage of) redundant comments. Today he clearly made conscious efforts to push past that. Being fairly young, maybe he is now growing into the announcer role. Bravo Hiro!

    [trying to find a bio for Hiro I ran across this little gem

    * Anyone care to give a play-by-play for Toyonoshima vs Hokutoriki? That match was missing from my "broadcast."

    * Ditto on Baruto vs Kotoshogiku although I did see the replay... no big surprise there. Kotoshogiku was hot from his win yesterday and Baruto was bound to crack eventually under the pressure of extending an Ozeki run to close the deal in January.

    *Harumafuji is definitely sporting a difficult injury to the knee or hamstring, but looked great against Goeido. I wonder if he didn't further aggravate the condition?

    * Takekaze looks like he suffered a twisted ankle in his bout with Hakuho. If it persists (and indeed was already being supported) I see him winning less than the 3 wins I had predicted for him originally